Three Closer Predictions for 2010

Kerry Wood saves 20+ games.  The news of Wood's fantasy uselessness is greatly exaggerated.  I personally feel like there is an 80% chance that Wood gets the closer job back.  I know it is trendy to say Wood is toast, but his replacement Chris Perez's career numbers are not exactly confidence inspiring: 98  innings, 49 walks, 110 K, a 3.92 ERA.  Why is everyone so in love with Perez?  He's going to get killed by his own penchant for giving up walks.

Koji Uejara will close at some point and do very well.  MGonzo has experienced a loss of velocity.  If he continues to get hammered, Koji will get a shot to be the closer.  He's proved he can close in Japan and he's proved he can get MLB hitters out by throwing up a 1.18 whip last year.

Ryan Madson will save more than 20 games.

Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft Strategies

Anyone out there doing a fantasy baseball auction draft for the first time?  Nervous?  Here is some literature that might help you formulate a strategy:

• Auction draft strategy from ESPN 
• Auction draft strategy from Razzball
• Auction draft strategy from FFToolbox
• Matthew Berry on auction drafts 
• CBS auction draft strategy
• Yahoo's auction draft strategies
• A treatise on auction drafts from Baseball Notebook
• Fantasy Baseball Hub auction draft strategies

2010 H2H Fantasy Baseball Strategy: C.R.A.S.S (CL, R, AVG, SB, SP)

"Certain speedsters are not getting proper respect this year. Borbon, Pierre, Rajai Davis, Everth Cabrera, and Elvis Andrus are all projected to swipe 40+ bags and score 80+ runs, but they're going in the 13th round or later."

- RotoAuthority

Given the multitude of Stolen Base / Runs hitters that are available after round 13 or so, one (head-to-head) strategy is to draft as many high-quality pitchers as possible in the early rounds before scooping up the hitters like the ones mentioned above in the later rounds.

Now, before you thank me for being a genius, please let me tell you why this plan is foolhardy:

• If you punt saves, you can also "unpunt" them through smart/fast waiver wire pickups. If you punt HR/RBI, you will never be able to unpunt them. In other words, there is no hedging your bets with this strategy. Either you are in, or, as Heidi would say, you are out.
• During that moment when a player on your team hits a HR, your team instantly is rewarded in four categories: R, RBI, HR, and AVG. Why would you draft a bunch of guys who can't hit HRs?
• Pitchers are, supposedly, "riskier" because they get injured more frequently
• Andrus might hit 8th; Borbon can't hit lefties and might lose his lead-off spot to Kinsler; RDavis could lose at bats and/or see his AVG dip; ECabrera might not lead off; etc., etc., etc. In sum, picking hitters late means you are more likely to have to deal with loss of playing time, demotion to lower in the lineup, demotion to minors, and regression of skills.
  

Here is why I'm going to use this strategy anyway:

• I did the boring old "best player available" last year and got my clock cleaned. My team was terrible. So I decided I'd rather do something oddball and fun than predictable and unfun.
• People love power. So if you want it, you'll need to pay for it. On the other hand, powerless players can come at a huge discount. Most people view the Juan Pierre's of the world as one-trick ponies. I'd argue that with 600+ lead-off at bats, they can become three-trick ponies (R/AVG/SB).
• With all the decent SB options available late, this is the perfect year to give it a try.
• The league I'm in has daily lineup changes, three SP slots, four P slots, four OF, and five bench slots. Winning teams in this league usually have one or even zero bench hitters; almost every inch of bench space is used to rotate in pitchers. This C.R.A.S.S strategy won't work for all league settings.
  

A few reminders:

• Focus less on the stolen bases and focus more on the Runs and the Batting Average; a team of speed guys will certainly lock that category down, but if you can't win Runs and AVG most weeks, your team won't be successful. To this end, you probably want to lock down a dependable Dustin Pedroia Run/Avg guy early in the draft.
• Try to get five closers so that you can guarantee winning that category each week.
• Did I mention that you should shoot for a team filled with leadoff-type hitters? You want your team to make up for its inability to hit a home run by getting more at bats.
• You can't afford to draft a single player who is AVG challenged.

Here is what an example team might look like (plus ESPN Projections):

• OF: Ichiro 29sb. 91r, .307 (#1 hitter)
• OF RDavis 37sb, 62r, .279 (#1 hitter)
• OF Borbon 38sb, 80r, .281 (#1 hitter)
• OF Morgan 40sb, 78r, .276 (#1 hitter)
• 1B Helton 0sb, 75r, .309 (#3 hitter)
• 2B Dustin 17sb, 110, .305 (#2 hitter)
• 3B Prado 2sb, 62, .300 (#2 hitter)
• SS Aybar 25sb, 72r, .303 (#1 hitter)
• C Yadier 12sb, 42r, .301 (#6 hitter)
• UTL Pierre 40sb, 62r, .287 (#1 hitter)
• SP Lincecum
• SP Halladay
• SP Lester
• RP JonP (39sv, 1.17whip)
• RP THoff (32sv, 1.13whip)
• P FrankFrank (31sv, 1.20whip)
• P Wandy
• BN Hamels
• BN Nolasco
• BN Josh Johnson
• BN Lyon (24sv, 1.28whip)
• BN Downs (9sv, 1.30whip)

Other Options:

• Alt: Wieters 0sb, 78r, .303 (#5 hitter)
• Alt: Polanco 5sb, 91r, .306 (#2 hitter)
• Alt: Frasor (17sv, 1.26whip)
• Alt: Wood (29sv, 1.28whip)
• Alt: Capps (24sv, 1.33whip)
• Alt: MGozo (29sv, 1.35whip)
• Alt: Dotel (22sv, 1.36whip)
• Alt: Nunez (23sv, 1.34whip)
• Alt: Jenks (31sv, 1.27whip)
• Alt: MMontero (0sb, 66r, .286)
• Alt: Howie 10sb, 73r, .313 (#2/7 hitter)
• Alt: Kemp 30sb, 96r, .307 (#2 hitter)
• Alt: Loney 5sb, 69r, .302)

Example Draft (12-team mixed league):

1. Lincecum
2. Dustin
3. Roy Halladay
4. Ichiro
5. Lester
6. Josh Johnson
7. Jon Pbon
8. Hamels
9. Nolasco
10. Borbon
11. Wandy
12. Morgon
13. RDavis
14. Hoffman
15. FrankFrank
16. Prado
17. Yadier
18. Pierre
19. Aybar
20. Helton
21. Lyon / Dotel
22. TOR CL (Downs or Frasor or Other)

Don't like this team? Pick and choose your own team:

• 1.Pick #2 Lincecum, HamRam, Albert
• 2.Pick #23 Pedroia, Halladay, Ellsbury
• 3.Pick #26 Pedroia, Halladay, Ellsbury, Zack G.
• 4.Pick #47 Votto, Sandoval, Cliff Lee
• 5.Pick #50 Ichiro, Wainwright, Lester, Vazquez
• 6.Pick #71 Papelbon, JJohnson, Carpenter
• 7.Pick #74 Chone, Bourn, Choo
• 8.Pick #95 Hamels, McCutchen, THanson
• 9.Pick #98 Gallardo, Nolasco, Ubaldo, MYoung, Wieters, Bartlett
• 10.Pick #119 Span, Wandy, Borbon
• 11.Pick #122 Garza, Shields
• 12.Pick #143 RMartin, NMorgan, RDavis
• 13.Pick #146 SBaker, RSoriano, Asdrubal, GSoto
• 14.Pick #167 EAndrus, Neftali, DPrice
• 15.Pick #170 FFrancisco, BAnderson
• 16.Pick #191 Capps, EAybar, Loney
• 17.Pick #194 Wood
• 18.Pick #215 Helton, RHarden, Pierre
• 19.Pick #218 Yadier, Kuroda
• 20.Pick #239 Everth Cabrera, A. Escobar
• 21.Pick #242 Liriano, DFowler

(Note: the players in the above team should be understood as placeholders of sorts, merely to give you a better idea of what this draft strategy might look like if it were to be carried out in the present fantasy baseball market. During your draft, you can always target other pitchers or hitters that you feel are more likely to be available in your league or more likely to perform at a high level during the 2010 season.)

Links:

• H2H Fantasy Baseball Strategy: The Pitching Heavy and the Average Challenged (PHAC)
• H2H Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Get Some S.A.C. (SB, AVG, and CL)
• Players that can hit for AVG
• Projected lead-off hitters
• 2010 Sleepers: Julio Borbon
• Head-to-head: Unorthodox Draft Strategies
  

MLB: 2010 Projected Lead-Off Hitters

Runs have, apparently, the highest correlation with fantasy baseball hitting success. So, if you believe that players who bat early in the line up get more at bats, and if you believe that more at bats leads to increased run production, then you might be interested to know who is going to be the leadoff hitter for each major league baseball team. I do not have this information, but what I do have is a list of 2010 lead-off hitter guesses / projections (I sometimes added Mock Draft Central ADP, the draft position in a recent Y! mock draft, and ESPN's projected Runs, Steals, and Batting Average):

Cubs: Ryan Theriot (81r, 21sb, .285avg)
Reds: Drew Stubbs (69r)
Hou: Michael Bourn (79r)
Brewers: Rickie Weeks (86r)
Pirates: Andrew McCutchen (100r)
STL: Skip Schumaker (78r)
ATL: Nate McLouth (95r)
Florida: Chris Coghlan (19th MDC, 10th Y!; 96r, 16sb, .292)
NYM: Jose Reyes (93r)
PHI: Jimmy Rollins (101r)
Nats: Nyjer Morgan (78r)
ARZ: Stephen Drew (10th MDC, 15th Y!; 87r, 8sb, .289)
COL: Carlos Gonzalez (81r, 11sb, .283)
LAD: Rafael Furcal (92r)
SDP: Everth Cabrera (20th MDC; 72r, 33sb, .263avg)
SFG: Aaron Rowand (64r)
BAL: Brian Roberts (101r)
BOS: Jacoby Ellsbury (92r)
NYY: Derek Jeter (103r)
Rays: Jason Bartlett (72r)
TOR: Jose Bautista (45r)
White Sox: Juan Pierre (62r)
Cleve: Grady Sizemore (97r)
DET: Austin Jackson (52r)
KC: Scott Podsednik (44r)
MN: Denard Span (12th MDC, 7th Y!; 92r, 21sb, .304avg)
LAA: Erick Aybar (72r)
OAK: Rajai Davis (62r)
SEA: Ichiro (91r)
TEX: Borbon (17th MDC, 11th Y!; 80, 38, .281)

The list of lead-off hitters available after the first ten rounds of mock drafts who are projected to bat over .280, steal 10+ bases, and score more than 80 runs is small:

• Carlos Gonzalez (11th MDC, 10th Y!; 81r, 11sb, .283)
• Chris Coghlan (19th MDC, 10th Y!; 96r, 16sb, .292)
• Julio Borbon (17th MDC, 11th Y!; 80, 38, .281)
• Ryan Theriot (22nd MDC, 19th Y!; 81r, 21sb, .285avg)

Quick Links:

• 2010 Major League Baseball Project lineups
• Chris Coghlan, fantasy bust?
• Thirty players had more than 600 at bats last year, including Theriot, Rollins, Ichiro, Jeter, Ellsbury, Furcal, and Bourn.
• Orlando Cabrera had the third-most at bats in MLB last year and went 83r, 13sb, .284avg
  

I Care That Matt Kemp Is Batting 8th

"Earlier this season, Torre said he didn't have to talk to Casey Blake about batting 8th because he was a veteran who knew how to hit there. Torre thinks the same of Matt Kemp, who batted eighth four times recently. "Matt Kemp doesn't care where he hits," Torre said, adding that if he sensed it would be a problem he would talk with the player first. With Kemp, it wasn't a problem at all."

- True Blue LA

Does it count if I care? Put aside all that baseball BS (power at the bottom of the order, putting a good hitter who can get hits even with the pitcher batting behind him, blah blah blah) and consider that Torre is giving the best hitter on the Dodgers one fewer at bat per game...on purpose.

Suggested Reading:

Is Matt Kemp the most underrated player in baseball? Gleeman makes his case!

When do we start taking Barry Zito seriously?

Nine years ago, I liked a certain young starting pitcher so much that I incorporated his last name into the name of my fantasy baseball team. That pitcher? Barry Zito. I kept the name for four years, and during those four years Zito had won-loss records of 7-4, 17-8, 23-5, and 14-12. After that the name got a little stale, and so I switched it up to something else. About that same time, Zito began to struggle. Well, maybe not struggle, but he certainly wasn't that same dominating pitcher that he used to be. His WHIP rose from a low of 1.13 in 2002 all the way to a high watermark of 1.60 in 2008.

Guys who go 23-5 usually get taken seriously, but Zito hasn't been taken seriously for years. Maybe now that he has racked up three four straight quality starts, it is time to start taking him seriously. Maybe now that he has found a soulmate in catcher Pablo Sandoval, we should start taking him seriously.

I'm going to go to bed now (I have to wake up in four hours to pick up some pitchers to stream), but later I'll try to post some actual analysis about Zito in an attempt to see if he can be a sub 1.30 WHIP pitcher this year.

Oh, and the name of my fantasy team? Zito Burrito. Kinda fun, kinda dumb. Good night.

Readables:

Everything you could ever want to know about Zito's last start.

A quick glance at FanGraphs shows that Zito's 2009 LOB% (75.8%) isn't much over his career average (73.2%). His 2009 BABIP is actually higher (.284) than has career average (.273). His 2009 K/9 (6.11) is actually slightly below his career average (6.70), but his 2009 BB/9 (3.06) ties his best ever (he also had a BB/9 of 3.06 in his 22-5 2002 season, as this graph shows). One change that jumps out is that 27% of his pitches thrown were curveballs in 2002, but now he's only throwing his curve 13% of the time. For some reason, after the 2005 season he abruptly stopped throwing his curveball as much. The only difference I can glean from these charts is that he seems to be throwing a tick faster this year. So what does it all mean? Well he's walking fewer batters and giving up fewer home runs. If he can keep that up, he should be able to continue to be a sub 1.30 WHIP pitcher. I have not idea how true it is, but I like to believe that as long as Sandoval is behind the plate, Zito will continue his resurgence.

Just to summarize in a less blocky paragraph: after Zito pitches, check the boxscore for walks and HRs. If he's continues to give up fewer than 1 HR every other start and 2 walks per start, you should believe in all things Zito. If his HR or BB creep over those thresholds, be wary. Is that too subtle? Then just check back on these graphs (using the BB/9 and HR/9 tabs).

An old Zito Q&A from back in the day.

Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Someone is streaming on me

I do not like it when someone streams on me. It doesn't make me feel good. In order to stop the streamer from streaming on me, I am aggressively fighting to neuter the streamer through a little trick I call anti-streaming. Here's how:

First, some context:

In my Yahoo! league, the owner who is playing me this week dropped the three worst players on his roster on Sunday night (our weekly games start on Monday) and picked up the three best free agent starting pitchers who were scheduled to pitch on Monday. (In my Yahoo! league, you can't pick a player up and play him the same day; you can only play him starting the following day.) All three pitched well, and I suddenly found myself down in Quality Starts and Ks.

Now, the strategy (sort of):

To counteract the streamer, I dropped the three worst players on my roster on Monday morning (I woke up earlier than the streaming owner) and picked up the two best free agent starting pitchers who were scheduled to pitch on Tuesday, as well as a starting pitcher who was scheduled to pitch on Wednesday. The following morning (Tuesday morning), I again woke up before the streaming owner and dropped all three pitchers and picked up two pitchers that were scheduled to pitch on Wednesday, as well as one starting pitcher who was scheduled to pitch on Thursday.

You see, picking up one pitcher who is scheduled to start in two days allowed me to hold him for one night and drop him, thus relegating him to the waiver wire for three days and preventing the streamer from being able to start him against me. (In Yahoo! leagues, if you pick someone up and drop him right away he goes straight to being a free agent. If, however, you hold him overnight, the default settings put that player on waivers for three days.) The idea is to thin out the free agent pool a bit, as forcing the streamer to start increasingly marginal players will help you win ERA and WHIP when one of his SPs inevitably implodes (much like Bronson Arroyo and Mike Hampton did in the first inning of their starts today).

As for the other two pitchers I picked up that pitched the following day, sometimes I started them and sometimes I didn't. The idea was to protect my ratios, while simultaneously hanging with the streamer in the K and QS categories. For example, today I started Ubaldo Jimenez. The reason I could do this safely was because I had such a huge lead in the ratios. So you have to play it by feel.

To review:

My league settings require me to wake up earlier than my opponenent to pick up the best three starting pitchers off the wire each day for a week.

Streaming is insanely stupid and I am insanely tired because I've been waking up early to get players off the wire for the last four mornings.

Just know that you don't HAVE to start the semi-crappy pitchers you pick up when trying to counteract a streamer. Only start a streaming SP when your ratios are safe and you need the Ks and QS (or Wins).

And if the SPs on the wire are particularly bad for a given day, move on to the next day and snag those SPs. You are trying to keep up with the streamer when it comes to quantity, but you want to try to do whatever you can to also maintain some quality to your pitching.

I realize not every owner can just drop three players. As it happens I had a number of injuries (Josh Hamilton, Brandon Morrow, Hong-Chih Kuo) that gave me some sudden roster flexibility.

To conclude:

Thankfully, there is only one owner in my twelve-team league that is streaming. Otherwise I'd be tired all the time. Okay, I gotta sleep. I have my alarm set for two hours from now. Good night.

Related Reading:

Yahoo!'s Behrens talks about streaming a day in advance. All you need is two empty roster spots and the MLB probable pitchers for two days in advance.

Will Sandoval become Zito's personal catcher?

Tonight might be the night we discover if Pablo Sandoval is going to become Zito's personal catcher. Bengie Molina says he's cool with it, and plus, Molina caught twelve innings yesterday, so it makes sense that he'd get a rest.

My thoughts? I'd say Sandoval has a 39% chance of catching tonight. Here is what others think:

Rotoworld's Pouliot: "Pablo Sandoval catches and Barry Zito pitches well; it's a trend that dates back to the second half of last season. Still, the Giants don't want to take Bengie Molina out of the lineup and they've never tried Molina at first base. I'd be surprised if Sandoval is behind the plate for Zito's start Monday."

Molina gives his blessing to Sandoval and Zito.

"Barry Zito may be the first pitcher who prefers being caught by a third baseman."

As many of you know, Sandoval is already catcher eligible in Yahoo leagues, so this information is aimed at leagues that need five or more catcher appearances this year to become eligible (which is the case in Sandbox leagues and probably some others). Sandoval has one catcher appearance so far this year.

Ten Spring Training thoughts on Pablo Sandoval...sort of interesting to read now that we've gotten a chance to see him play a bit this year.

UPDATE 4/27, mid-game (11:24pm): Yes! Sandoval catches Zito. And, perhaps more importantly, Zito is pitching well (4 innings, zero runs) so far, which makes it more likely for this trend to continue.

UPDATE 4/28, late-game (12:32am): A solid Zito start. He pitched six scoreless innings with 92 pitches, but he was left in the game for the seventh and gave up a walk, a homer, and a single. He was pulled for Merkin Valdez, who promptly allowed the inherited runner to score, plus a few more. So no win for Zito. But still, all in all Zito's start was MCE (more conclusive evidence) that he is better when Sandoval is his catcher.

I think we have our answer to the question posed in the title. For now.

The Morning After:

"I asked Manager Bruce Bochy how he weighs the benefit of having Pablo Sandoval working with Barry Zito against the negative of taking Molina, the club’s cleanup hitter, out of the lineup. Bochy insisted this is not a “personal catcher” scenario and he would have rested Molina anyway because he caught all 12 innings Sunday. Bochy did say there was a benefit to giving Sandoval his starts with the same pitcher, because it helps with familiarity."

"Once again, though Bochy didn't fully commit to naming Sandoval as Zito's personal catcher, the manager did say, "It makes it easier for the pitcher or the catcher if Bengie gets the same off-day each week." Bochy added that besides Zito, Sandoval would be most likely to catch Matt Cain or Jonathan Sanchez, while Molina has been charged with the responsibility of working with ace Tim Lincecum and fellow veteran Randy Johnson."

Kinsler on pace to join 50/50 club

Here are the highest draft picks to have been dropped so far in my Yahoo! 12-team mixed H2H league (22-player rosters): Justin Upton (Round 11), Chris Iannetta (11), Derrek Lee (11), Milledge (12), Carlos Guillen (13), Kawakami (14), Jose Lopez (14), and Delmon Young (15).

Of this list, the players that I am most confident will rebound are Jose Lopez and Chris Iannetta.

Other Notes:

After a rough start, Motte has quietly settled down. After giving up 4 runs in his first appearance, he's pitched 6 innings, given up only 1 run, and has 1 walk and 6 Ks. He's probably not an option when not getting saves, but he's worth watching.

I've read more talk about how Chris Ray will take over the closer role from Sherrill, and maybe sooner than most folks think. I believe it because it makes sense. Sherrill is most valuable (to Baltimore) when not in the closer role. Don't believe me? Check out how bad he is against right-handed hitters (1.73 WHIP, 26 BB, 28 K in 2008) and how good he is against left-handed hitters (1.06 WHIP, 7 BB, 30 K, in 2008).

Other closer types that are worth watching include Santiago Casilla, Garrett Mock (Nats), Nunez, CPerez, Motte, Arredondo, Zumaya, Balfour, Izzy (TB), Aardsma, RMadson (PHI). Oh, and with Joakim Soria missing a minimum of 3 games, look into Juan Cruz.

Brandon Wood hasn't played single inning in three games so far. He supposedly will play a little this weekend. I don't get it. If you aren't going to play him, why call him up?

Other middle infield news: Aviles is playing horribly. I predict he will be dropped soon by most managers. Also: Ass Cab (Asdrubal Cabrera) has been solid of late.

When it comes to a steals-only type player to pick up, consider Iwamura (5 steals) to be potentially more valuable than Gardner (4 steals) or Elvis Andrus. Iwamura hits for decent average (.280-ish), scores a lot (91 times last year), and is on pace for 50 steals right now. Speaking of on-pace stats...

Fun With Stats:

The season is already 10% complete, as teams have played 15-to-17 games. The cool thing about this is we can add a zero to any counting stat and get that players' 2009 pace. For example:

Han Ram: 20 HR / 20 SB
NCruz, Inge, & Pujols: 60 HR
Abreu: 80 SB
Kemp: 30 HR / 40 SB
Kinsler: 50 HR / 70 SB
Markakis 180 Runs, 190 RBI
Pujols: 180 Runs, 210 RBI
Aaron Hill: 290 Hits
Kevin Millwood: 300 Innings
JSantana: 270 K
CBills, Wandy, & Haren: 40 Quality Starts
Heath Bell: 70 Saves

Rafael Soriano gets the save: should you save a roster spot for Soriano?

Here is what Rafael Soriano's Yahoo player note had to say after he got the save tonight:

"Soriano threw a scoreless ninth inning with two strikeouts to earn his second save in Wednesday's win over Washington. Mike Gonzalez pitched in the eighth inning to get the win.

"Soriano got the nod over Gonzalez when the Braves wanted to bring a left-handed pitcher in to face left-handed Adam Dunn in the eighth inning. This could be a sign the closer role may be split between the two players, and Soriano may have more upside if both are healthy since Gonzalez may be used earlier in games against left-handed batters."

My guess is that either this is a bit of a false alarm and Soriano only snipes a quiet one-to-two saves a month for the rest of the season OR Mike Gonzalez and Soriano split of the save opportunities equitably going forward. Either way, this news makes Soriano valuable in mixed leagues, especially in leagues that have saves and holds; Soriano has had either a save or a hold in four of his seven appearances in 2009.

What? You want me to speak in an informal, off-the-record type way? Here ya go: ride the Intermittent Raffy Sores closer horse until he gets injured. And he will get injured. Dude's ligaments have the tensile strength of tissue paper.

Stat-y Type Stuff:

Check out Rafael Soriano's career stats (in 263 innings):
K/9 = 9.27
BB/9 = 2.74
K/BB = 3.39
AVG against = .204
Career fastball speed: 93.5 MPH (he's been throwing 92.1 so far this year)

4/24 UPDATE: Well, R. Soriano got the hold tonight (while giving up one run in the eighth) and M. Gonzo got the save. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few weeks.

Fantasy Hurler thinks RSoriano will save more games than Gonzo in 2009 (by the count of 20-ish saves to 10-15-ish).

The RP/SP Eligible Fantasy Baseball Update: Garrett Mock Might Close

As I mentioned in a previous post, RP/SP dual eligible pitchers can help your fantasy baseball team. Here are a few relief pitchers that have SP eligibility that you might want to keep an eye on:

Brandon Morrow - The best SP eligible relief pitcher of the 2009 season. Look for him to put up Joakim Soria type closer numbers this year.

Hong-Chih Kuo - Dodgers coach Joe Torre has been avoiding using Kuo on back-to-back days to protect Kuo's elbow (which has had four (4!) operations), but as a result Kuo has looked out of sorts. Kuo himself has admitted that he is currently lacking in confidence. Don't push the panic button on Kuo just yet, but if he still is struggling by the time May rolls around, you can begin to get worried.

Carlos Villanueva - Villanueva was so bad as a closer that he has, most likely, been banished to 7th inning duties even with Trevor Hoffman still out for at least one more week. Rotoworld claims Villanueva is still worth using, but I'm not so sure.

Garrett Mock (pictured) - With Joel Hanrahnrahan stuggling as the Nats closer, the possibility exists that the RP/SP eligible Mock gets a shot at the closer role. Mock has two saves in five relief appearances in the Minors so far this year. He also had a Chien-Ming Wang-like 31.50 ERA after his first three minor league appearances this year. So it is not like Mock was tearing up Triple-A. Still, given that Mock has had decent control and a solid K/9 ratio throughout his minor league career, I'm cautiously optimistic that he would be useable if he ever were to get the closer role. Not that it is all that likely he'll get a shot to close: I'd say he has a about a 15% chance of ever closing in 2009, as I'd speculate that Joe Beimel gets first crack if Hanrahanrahan continues to falter. UPDATE 4/21: Beimel was just placed on the 15 day DL. So maybe Mock will get a shot. Then again, Joel H. was able to lock down a save last night, so maybe Mock won't get a shot. Mock did, however, retire the only batter he faced to get the last out of the eighth inning--picking up a hold in the process--in his 2009 debut. It appears he'll be Joel Hanny's setup guy for the near-term.

Dan Meyer - Unlike most of the other RP/SP eligible pitchers, Meyer has started out the year strong: 5.1 innings, 2 ER, 4 K, 2 BB, and 3 Holds. This is a very small sample size, but if you are looking for holds from an RP/SP eligible pitcher, you might try riding Meyer's strong start. Just know that he will probably regress to numbers closer to his career averages of a 1.68 WHIP and a 7.19 ERA.

Others: Jeff Bennett, Justin Masterson, Dennis Sarfate, and Sean Marshall each have 1 Hold in 2009.

Other Readables:

The top RP/SP eligible pitchers of 2009

Rotoworld thinks Mock might close.

Suddenly Mock info is cropping up everywhere! Here is a Yahoo post about the Nats closer situation.

Here is Yahoo's team-by-team closer summary. They've even added a nifty RP/SP icon. And they got rid of the horrible yellow color and went with blue. Good work, guys.

UPDATE 4/21: Hanny-rahan is on a roll! He held on for his second save tonight (1 BB, 1 hit, 0 K). Mock didn't pitch.

Funked-up Starts To The 2009 MLB Season: Six Players Who Are Currently Ranked Below A-Rod

Every year, a few very good baseball players start the MLB season in a bit of a funk. When this happens, you have three choices:
1. Run away from them, screaming
2. Do what you can to get the funked-up player on your team as cheaply as possible
3. Do nothing.

This year I am mostly going to do nothing. Why? Because nearly every player who has started the 2009 season in a funk is already on my team. You don't believe me? Check this out: my entire team is batting .194 over the last week. Thank you Pablo Sandoval (.216 for the season), Chris Davis (.176), Garrett Atkins (.222), Alexei Ramirez (.143), and BJ Upton (.176). Wow.

So, according to the Yahoo! ranking system, Alex Rodriguez is ranked #962 even though he hasn't played a single game yet this year. For those of you who are in position trade for some funked-up players, here are six players who have played so poorly this season that they are ranked below A-Rod in the Y! ranks. Yes, that's right: the players on this list have been so cold at the plate so far this season that you would have been better off if you'd been starting the injured A-Rod over them:

6. David Ortiz (#1085): You might be able to get Ortiz really, really cheaply. He's batting .158 (6-for-38) so far this season, and people are starting to whisper that his career is done. Kaput. Razzball compares Ortiz's career trajectory to Mo Vaughn. Scouts, apparently, are concerned. What do I think? I don't really know, but I'm staying away for now. (That could change, as I always like a bargain.)

5. Justin Upton (#1109): JUpton started the season by batting .130 (3-for-23). His swing, apparently, needs fixing. People are suddenly saying that 21-year old still isn't ready. Funny to think that if he'd just had three more hits, people wouldn't be having this conversation at all. The only reason I hesitate to endorse him is that his manager isn't playing him regularly. This could either turn into a 2008 Matt Kemp situation, where JUpton plays himself into more playing time, or it could result in a Lastings Milledge situation, where JUpton is demoted. I'll sum up my feelings this way: I'm in love with the guy, but he is currently sitting on the waiver wire in my 12-team money league.

4. Chris Iannetta (#1109): Iannetta started the season by batting .048 (1-for-21). Hey, look on the bright side: his defensive skills have improved since last year. (Full disclosure: I was one of those people who fell for JR Towles in the past.) I am not honestly not worried about Iannetta.

3. Jimmy Rollins (#1110 in Y! game): Rollins has started the year 5-40 and doesn't have a single stolen base. Jimmy claims it is all about timing, and quite frankly, I believe him. I am actively pursuing him in trades. Sure, he's cold now, but he'll heat up soon enough.

2. Alexei Ramirez (#1100): Alexei has started the year batting .143 (5-for-35). Am I worried? Yes, but only because he's on my team, and when players are on my team I worry about them constantly. But someone with more perspective would point out that Alexei made some great adjustments last year, and that he's a great bet to do it again this year.

1. Geovany Soto (#1117): Soto is currently batting .118 (2-for-17), but I blame a "sore" shoulder. If the shoulder injury isn't serious, he'll be fine. If his shoulder injury is serious, he might 2008-Victor-Martinez your team. I say the odds are 80/20 that he'll be fine.

Honorable Mention:

Prince Fielder (#673), Carlos Lee (#762), Stephen Drew (#661), Chris Davis (#628), Jay Bruce (#679), and JJ Hardy (#674).

Other Readables:

Fantasy Hurler thinks that Alexei, CDavis, and Ortiz might be droppable at some point this year.

Fantasy Baseball 365 suggests that Justin Upton might be better off if he were in the minors for another year...or two.

Yahoo suggests you should buy Chris Davis and Chris Iannetta and hold Alexei Ramirez.

Razzball on Alexei: don't despair!

Wang or Pettitte?

Chien-Ming Wang was just dropped in my 12-team mixed league. Andy Pettitte was already on the wire. My co-manager was pushing for us to pick up Pettitte. I've been resisting, wanting to pick up Wang instead. Here is my argument:

Pettitte:
2006: 214.1 innings, 3.20 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
2007: 215.1 innings, 4.05 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
2008: 204 innings, 4.54 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
2009: 14.1 innings 2.51 ERA, 0.77 WHIP

Which WHIP seems out of place?

Wang:
2006: 218 innings, 3.63 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
2007: 199.1 innings, 3.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
2008: 95 innings, 4.07 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
2009: 4.2 innings, 28.93 ERA, 4.50 WHIP

Which WHIP seems out of place?

Conclusion: The over / under on Pettitte's 2009 WHIP should be about 1.43. Wang's over / under for his 2009 WHIP should be about 1.31. You think it is a bit misleading to only show WHIP, ERA, and innings pitched? Fine. How about this: Wang is 29 and hasn't been linked to steroids and Pettitte is going to turn 38 soon and has been linked to steroids. You think this is ageist, and that I should get over my ageism by watching this link? Ok. You have me there.

Here is how Y! saw it before the season started: Wang is ranked 63rd and Pettitte is ranked 71st.

Bill James projects a 1.35 WHIP for both Pettitte and Wanger.

Of course the day I post this, Wang gives up 8 runs in 1.1 innings in what will probably end up being a 22-4 loss to the Indians (there are two outs in the ninth), raising his ERA to 34.50. Now I'm beginning to wonder if he is hiding an injury.

Yes, that is Joba wearing the checkered sweater in the background in the picture above.

"To reach his career E.R.A. coming into the season (3.79), Wang would have to roll off 48 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings."

Wang is able to correct his flaw in practice, just not in the game.

Q: Should I trade Alexei Ramirez for JJ Hardy & Rich Harden?

I'm lacking a little bit of context here (is this a daily league? Do you have DL slots? Roto or H2H?), but I'll give a stab at answering Anonymous' question anyway: I wouldn't trade Alexei for JJ & Rich.

Why? Well, blame Rich Harden. My own personal over/under on how many starts he makes this year is 11, and I'd take the under. But remember, I'm the same guy who drafted Harden for both his 2006 (9 starts) and 2007 (4 starts) seasons, but not his 2008 (26 starts) season. I'm also the guy who wrote stuff about Alexei and then drafted him in his own draft. So you can certainly take my advice, but remember that I'm pretty biased here.

As for stats, I wouldn't read much into their stats so far this year:
Alexei: 0-3 (1 game)
Hardy: 0-5 (1 game)
Harden: Yet to pitch in regular season, but did give up three HR in each of his last two spring training starts.

I admit that I'd be tempted because of the Hardy/Harden thing. I'd be especially tempted if your team already has both Uptons on it. Then again, if you have both Manny and Alexei Ramirez I'd be less tempted. On a more serious note, Hardy will get some nice stats at the end of the year, but he seems to get most of them in the same week, so I'd personally avoid him if you are in a H2H league.

I'm all over the place. Bottom line? Stick with Sexy Alexei. Harden is a great player when healthy (top ten SP? top five? He's captain of the all-value-per-appearance team), but you'd be taking a big gamble by trading for him. Arguably (and according to ADP, which is meaningless now that the season has started, but still), Alexei is the best player in the deal, and you rarely want to be on the side of the deal that is giving up the best player.

Good luck, Anon!

4/19/09 Update: Don't give up on Alexei Ramirez yet!

Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts

So I was listening to Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz's ESPN: Fantasy Focus Baseball Podcast the other day, and I heard Matthew tell Nate that he (Matthew) is signed up to receive google alerts when his name is mentioned on the web. So, I thought I'd conduct an experiment:

Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts.

Hi, TMR. This is kind of funny, right Matthew? That I got your attention in this way? Maybe you're right, maybe it isn't funny.

Anyway, now that I have your attention, I though I'd tell you a quick story: I'm currently co-managing a fantasy baseball team with my wife. She is fairly knowledgeable about baseball, but she'd always scoffed at fantasy sports, so I was amazed that she agreed to team up with me. It wasn't until last night, when she said she'd refuse to let me pick up Emilio Bonifacio until I agreed that we'd buy a dog, that I understood why she had agreed so readily manage with me.

I initially said no to the dog (we live in a small apartment), but a few hours later (right after Bonifacio stole his third base) I broke down. I had to have Bonifacio. So I made a deal with my wife that we could have a dog as long as Bonifacio was on our roster.

My wife left our apartment and returned thirty minutes later with a full-grown golden retriever mix.

“Should we name him Bonifacio?” I asked.



“Nah. Golden Mucho is his name,” my wife said.

The plan was for Golden Mucho to sleep on the linoleum in the kitchen, but after we’d gone bed, he opened our bedroom door and joined us in our bed.

“Did he just open our bedroom door?” I asked.

“Maybe it was open a crack already.”

“Shouldn’t we kick him out?”

“Let him stay.”

I was too tired to argue.

In the middle of the night, I woke up and went to use the bathroom. When I opened the door to the bathroom, I found Golden Mucho squatting over the toilet bowl and using it for its intended purpose. When he was done, Golden Mucho used his nose to flush the toilet, and then he bounded out of the bathroom, past my legs, and into our bed.

This morning, as I ate breakfast and started to get ready for work, the stereo began to play at an acceptably loud level. I don't know what it is with this dog, but he's really good with knobs and levers. How cool is that? There is no way I'm dropping Bonifacio now. He can bat .217 for all I care. We're keeping Golden Mucho.

Okay, Matthew. Thanks for listening. As you were.

Related Reading(s):

Matthew and Razzball have some polite back-and-forth.

2009 Spring Training: What have we learned about Chris Davis?

If you drafted BJ Upton in a league with DL slots, you are probably wondering when will the Rays finally put BJ Upton on the DL? Well, any day now. Any second, even.

Speaking of Disabled Lists, how do those work at the start of the season? This link will tell you.

So Matt Wieters is in the minors. But what does this mean? When will he be called up? First, let me just state for the record that these rules confuse the heck out of me. Second, because I don't understand them, I'll defer to this site with regards to "Super-Two" verbiage. Third, well, there is no third.

Chone Figgins is 3rd this spring with 8 SB. He also has 3 CS, 1 HR, is batting .407 and has a 7 Ks and 7 BBs. A pretty good spring.

Matt Kemp has 3 SB and 4 CS. Does this concern me? No it does not. I'd be more scared if I were an Alfonso Soriano owner (0 SB, 3 CS).

Chris Davis is the Spring Training leader with 23 Ks. He also has 9 BBs, is batting .310, and has 5 HR. I still think Chris Davis is worth his Average Draft Position (ADP). Also note that Jay Bruce has 20 Ks and only 4 BBs.

Elijah Dukes is not exactly tearing it up this spring: .250 AVG, 1 HR, 3 SB, 16 K, 7 BB. But I am not worried. I really do think he'll win the job and get 500 plus at bats this year and go, minimum, 20 HR / 20 SB.

Sheffield was cut, as Aaron Gleeman discusses here. Sure, Sheff was batting .178, but note that he did have 13 walks and 10 Ks when he was cut.

Ryan Howard leads ST with 9 HRs. Nelson Cruz has 6, as does soon-to-be-2B-eligible Mark Teahen. Alex Gordon has five.

Two hot players: Todd Helton (.515 AVG, 4 HR, in 33 at bats) and Milton Bradley (.524 AVG, 4 HR in 42 at bats).

You need speed to get triples, and Fred Lewis has three of them this spring. He also is batting .373 and has 3 SB (but 2 CS).

Your current Spring Training hits leader? Pablo Sandoval with 29. The rotund Sandoval also manged to steal a base.

Daniel Murphy of the Mets has been a sexy pickup of late, especially after it was announced that he'd hit second in the Mets lineup. He is tied for second this spring with 28 hits. He also has 1 HR, 2 SB, and a .364 AVG.

Ubaldo Jimenez has 14 Ks and 13 BBs. Not very encouraging for a guy who has control issues. Then again, the sample size is so small it isn't really all that meaningful. Take Matt Capps, a guy who hardly every walks anyone during the regular season, and somehow he has 9 walks and only 12 Ks this spring. Then again, Jimenez has also hit three batters this spring, which is arguably more wild than just issuing walks.

My main man Motte leads ST with 4 saves but more importantly he appears to have at least a portion of the closer role. Hey, LaRussa said it, not me.

No one has given up more runs than Zach Greinke this spring (25 runs in 23.1 innings). Don't fret. Cliff Lee is giving up a lot of runs (23 runs in 16.2 innings) but he is supposedly working on something to do with his fastball. Scott Baker has given up an eye-opening 9 home runs in 23.2 innings. I really don't think that any of these stats are all that meaningful.

MLB season, please start soon.

The Five Players I Drafted In Both Of My Fantasy Baseball Leagues

I'm participating in two leagues this year: an 8-team keeper H2H points-based Sandbox league, and a 12-team keeper H2H roto-based Y! league. Despite the vastly different formats, I expected to draft some of the same players in both drafts. And I did double-draft a few players, just not the guys I expected. Here are the five players that I drafted in both leagues:

Matt Wieters - I got Wieters at a reasonable price in the Sandbox league, especially considering all the hype (and it is a two-catcher league), but by the time the Y! draft came along, my Wieters man-crush was at its peak and I reached a bit. Now, a week later, I can laugh about it (sort of), but I must say I'm really hoping he starts the season with the big league team. It's pretty annoying to have that red "NA" next to his name, as it means I can't slide him into my DL slot. Oh, so why did I draft him? Part of it was getting carried away, sure, but I mostly drafted him because he's the first universally-loved prospect I've ever come across. He also walked more than he struck out last year, and so he'll probably be viable in any points league that penalizes strikeouts (like my Sandbox league). Combine all that with the keeper league format, and you can see why I starting getting excited. In the back of my head I'm thinking, wow, if this Wieters guy ends up being a cross between Mike Piazza and Joe Mauer, how can I go wrong? These expectations are probably completely unreasonable. I know this. But it's fun to own someone like Wieters. It's fun to be able to root for his success. Oh, and propaganda pieces like this certainly help keep the optimism machine buzzing. 3/29 UPDATE: It's official: Wieters sent to minors.

John Smoltz - When all the good SPs are off the board, I find I have a hard time pulling the trigger on the crappy endgame SPs. My brain knows that Mark Buehrle will win 15 games, but my heart won't let me draft him. As a result of this stubbornness, I frequently end up drafting players who have been amazing in the past, but are pretty far down the ranks because of injury or circumstance. For example: I always end up drafting the Carlos Marmol-types over the Kevin Gregg-types. Gregg might play well this year, sure, but the finger I use to draft will only allow me to draft the players who have certifiable talent (sorry Gregg). That's why I stick with H2H, as it doesn't penalize you as much for taking pitchers who are going to miss half the year. So, enter John Smoltz...you know, the SP who hasn't had a WHIP over 1.19 since 1996. He won't be back until June, and so I'll have to slide him into my DL slot for a few months. While it isn't a great idea to stockpile injured players in leagues with small benches, I was able to convince myself that in a head-to-head league, winning in September is more important than winning in April. I'll take the 16th-round gamble that Smoltz will regain his dominant form in Boston.

Brandon Morrow - Morrow walks too many guys (4.73 BB/9). This bothers me. He has been experiencing some arm "tightness" this spring. This worries me. But then I look at his incredible K/9 rate (10.44), and his WHIP (1.14), and I feel much better. Oh, and I'm fine with Seattle turning him into a closer. I love unhittable closers that have SP/RP eligibility.

Roy Halladay - Maybe I was swayed by my own post in which I noted that Halladay will bring a 1083% return on investment if he manages to duplicate his 2008 stats. I know some of you out there think that Halladay will regress to his 2007 form (139 K, 1.24 WHIP), a form that was excellent but not quite as good as his 2008 form (206 K, 1.05 WHIP), but you can count me among the folks that think Halladay will come close to duplicating his stats from 2008. Either way, he's worth a fourth-round pick in mixed league 12-team drafts.

Elijah Dukes - Dukes has been falling in drafts, I think, because he isn't guaranteed a starting gig and he plays for a team that has an incredibly crowded outfield. So, I unilaterally decided that Dukes would win the starting gig in spring training. I'll probably be proven right (please!), but in truth this decision has yet to be confirmed. Anyway, assuming that Dukes does get the starting gig, it is tempting to double his stats from the 286 at bats he has last season and get a gaudy 26 HR, 26 SB season. For what it's worth, Lastings Milledge thinks Dukes will go 30-30 this year. Imagine? And it is not like Dukes is some hacker--the dude can take a walk. Not bad for a 19th-round pick in the 12-team mixed league draft. Very McLouth-ish. (McLouthsian?)

My 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft Cheatsheet

I've already outlined an SP-heavy strategy here, and an RP-heavy strategy here. In our money league, however, The Sinkhole used neither of these strategies. Instead, we generated a cheatsheet of players that we wanted to target in each round and used it as a guide during the draft. Sometimes our targets were unreasonable—like there was no way Carlos Lee was going to fall to round five—but that just meant we didn't draft that player. And sometimes we completely ignored our cheatsheet and let our emotions get the better of us, which is the only possible explanation for why we drafted Wieters three rounds ahead of the round we were targeting him in.

So here is the cheatsheet for our Yahoo 12 team mixed keeper league H2H roto (not points) draft that uses standard 5*5 categories (except Quality Starts instead of Wins), daily lineup changes, five bench spots, 7 pitchers (SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P), one catcher, and four outfielders; we had the 8th pick. Perhaps it will help you make your draft cheatsheet. (Note: our cheatsheet underestimated the speed with which SPs would be drafted in rounds 9 through 15, so you might want to adjust accordingly.) Our actual picks are highlighted in bold (although we didn't always get the players in bold in the rounds we were targeting to get them in, and sometimes we picked players not found on our cheatsheet):

1.Pick #8 Braun, MCabrera, Sizemore, Hamilton (pictured above)
2.Pick #17 Utley, Rollins, BUpton,
3.Pick #32 Kemp, ARod, Markakis, Holliday
4.Pick #41 Halladay / Hamels, Alexei
5.Pick #56 Markakis, Soriano, CarlosLee, Grandy, Rios
6.Pick #65 Chris Davis, Tulo, McLouth, Bay, Hart, Pence
7.Pick #80 Votto? Pence, JShields, Lackey, Cano,
8.Pick #89 Votto
9.Pick #104 Gallardo, Nolasco
10.Pick #113 Nolasco, Soria, Marmol, Broxton, Joba, KWood
11.Pick #128 Nolasco / Greinke, Wieters
12.Pick #137 Price, Wieters, MBradley, VWells, Milledge
13.Pick #152 Morrow / Scherzer, Baker
14.Pick #161 Capps, Qualls, Bell
15.Pick #176 Sandoval
(Emerg 2B: JLopez)
16.Pick #185 Hawpe, JUpton, NCruz, Tavares
17.Pick #200 Slowey, Bedard, RandyJ, Francisco
18.Pick #209 Smoltz, Taveras, AJones, Kershaw
(Emergency SS OCabrera)
19.Pick #224 Kuo, Carpenter
(Emergency 3B: Gordon, Cantu, Beltre, Reynolds)
20.Pick #233 Balfour, Putz, Andrus
21.Pick #248 Maine, Dukes, Butler, Motte
(Emerg C: Shoppach)
22.Pick #257 Lind, IStewart
(Emerg 3B: Lowell, Blalock, Kouz)
Drafted players not on cheatsheet: Guthrie, Maholm, & Atkins.

(If you are interested, the actual final outcome our draft can be found here and here.)

What Will Your Waiver Wire Look Like After Your Draft?

The Sinkhole recently participated in a Yahoo 12 team mixed keeper league H2H roto (not points) draft that uses standard 5*5 categories (except Quality Starts instead of Wins), daily lineup changes, five bench spots, one catcher, and four outfielders; we had the 8th pick. Our draft was...interesting. For example: according to the Yahoo Preseason Ranks, we don't have a single top-four player at any position, except outfield. Yikes. We, inexplicably, drafted two catchers in the first thirteen rounds, even though we usually take one catcher with our last pick in a one-catcher league. (And Ramon Hernandez, a decent catcher option, is now laughing at us from the waiver wire.) But the two catchers we got (Sandoval and Wieters) could be a smart pair to own in this Yahoo daily H2H keeper format, so maybe it works out. We also went for a lot of other sexy-yet-unproven players (Chris Davis, Morrow, Scherzer). And no real closers. But we did get some Sinkhole-friendly players, like Zach Grienke, Chris Davis, Pablo Sandoval (pictured above), Alexei Ramirez, Roy Halladay, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Jason Motte.

But this post is about what a waiver wire might look like, not about studying our draft on a granular level. So, I thought it might be instructive to go through the waiver wire of our league and look at the Yahoo preseason ranks of all the guys who didn't get drafted. I also included, in bold, our picks. This should give you an idea of what your waiver wire might look like in a typical 12-team mixed (keeper) yahoo league.

Oh, and after looking at the list below, tell me: which player would be the first guy you'd snag off the wire? We'll be able to put Smoltz in our DL slot soon, so we'll need to make a move.

C
9. Sandoval
10. Wieters
14. Ramon Hernandez
15. Navarro
17. Clement

1B
10. Chris Davis
13. Garrett Atkins
23. Sandoval
24. Adam LaRoche
30. Casey Kotchman
30. Mike Jacobs
30. Helton

2B
6. Alexei
19. Orlando Hudson
21. Freddy Sanchez
22. Iwamura
23. Aaron Miles
24. Alexi Casilla
26. Mark Ellis
25. Fontenot
27. Barmes
28. Asdrubal

SS
5. Alexei
15. Orlando Cabrera
20. Reneria
21. Cristian Guzman
22. Elvis Andrus
23. Jason Bartlett
24. Yuniesky Betancourt
25. Barmes
30. Asdrubal

3B
8. Chris Davis
11. Garrett Atkins
17. Sandoval
22. Lowell
24. Kouzmanoff
29. Wigginton
30. Casey Blake
30. Andy LaRoche

OF
3. Hamilton
4. BJ Upton
15. Matt Kemp
22. Alexei
24. Pence
50. Dukes
53 Fred Lewis
62. Francoeur
64 Luke Scott
65 Jose Guillen
65 Gary Sheffield
65 Jeremy Hermida
68 Travis Snider
68 Chris Dickerson
70 Jack Cust
72. Jason Kubel
73. Kendry Morales
74. Ty Wigginton
75. David DeJesus
77. Ben Francisco
80. Michael Bourn
80. Brian Giles
80. Juan Pierre
80. Colby Rasmus
80. Eric Byrnes
80. Fukudome
80. Schumaker

RP
14. Scherzer
18. Marmol
24. Morrow
27. Corpas
29. Motte
29. Kevin Gregg
35. Chris Perez
36. Kuo
37. Ray
40. Scot Shields
40. Rodney
40. Nunez
40. Batista
40. Aardsma

SP
6. Halladay
23. Greinke
42. Scherzer
52. Morrow
54. Wandy Rod
55. John Maine
56. Mike Pelfrey
62. Oliver Perez
66. Jonathan Sanchez
67. Maholm
71. Kuo
72. Sean Marshall
73. Smoltz
74. Andy Pettitte
78. Ian Snell
79. Guthrie
80. Sonnanstine
80. Galarraga
80. Arroyo
80. Neftali Feliz
80. Aaron Cook
80. Trevor Cahill
80. Brad Penny
80. Phil Hughes
80. David Purcey
80. Carlos Carrasco

Mike Lowell Optimism Despite Looming Pessimism

After his excellent 2007 season, Mike Lowell was the 125th player drafted before the start of the 2008 baseball season. He was the 11th third baseman drafted.

In 2009, he’s been the 24th third baseman drafted. His Average Draft Position (ADP) is 207.

In a year when things get pretty thin at the 3B position after the first ten rounds or so, it’d be nice to have a late-round 3B who could perform as a top 12-to-15 third baseman. Is the 35-year-old Mike Lowell that guy?

Well, he’s probably not going to duplicate his 2007 stats:
79 R, 21 HR, 120 RBI, 3 SB, .324 AVG in 589 at bats

For 2009, Bill James projects:
59 R, 16 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB, .277 AVG in 462 at bats

But let’s say that Lowell manages to get in 589 at bats again. This is not completely improbable, as he averaged 551 at bats in the eight-season stretch that ran from 2000 to 2007. I know, I know, but for the sake of argument, let’s just pretend he can get in 589 at bats in 2009. How would this change Bill James’ 2009 projection? Like so:
75 R, 20 HR, 96 RBI, 3 SB, .277 AVG

That’s not too bad, is it? Granted, Bill James is the most optimistic man on the human planet, but still. I wonder, how would this manipulated projection compare with the top 15 3B from the 2008 season?
Well, Troy Glaus was the 15th-best 3B (and 121st player overall) last year with these stats:
69 R, 27 HR, 99 RBI, 0 SB, .270 AVG in 544 at bats.

Not convinced? Kevin Kouzmanoff was the 18th-best 3B (and 198th overall) last year with these stats:
71 R, 23 HR, 84 RBI, 0 SB, .260 AVG in 624 at bats.

My point is this: Lowell was unable to live up to his high ADP in 2008, but he is a very good bet to outperform his ADP in 2009. And I’ll add this tidbit: he might be a better late-round 3B to add then 29 HR hitting, 11 SB stealing (possibly redundant) Mark Reynolds.

Mark Reynolds has a contact rate of 62.3%, one of the worst rates in the league. This doesn’t mean that he’s going to suck, of course, but I think it is safe to say that his inability to make contact will give his owners intermittent headaches throughout the season. For example, Reynolds batted .293 in June of last year, and then batted .217 for the next two months. Yikes.

Look, I’m still interested in Reynolds, mostly because of the 30 HR / 10 SB potential so late in the draft (although I'm less interested in him in H2H leagues), but if you want a safer, more consistent option to slide into your 3B slot (especially in H2H leagues), why not try Lowell? Lowell’s career contact rate is 88.8%. He’s recovering well from his October hip surgery (he went 2-for-2 with a HR against the Yanks in his first game back at 3B) and is on track to be ready for Opening Day.

I encourage you to blame Lowell’s 2008 struggles on his hip. Assume the Red Sox will play Lowell at 3B nearly every day despite his fragility. Oh, so you bring up how Kevin Youkilis has been taking more grounders at third this spring just in case Lowell has a setback? Stop trying to scare me. It won't work. Pencil in 20 HR and nearly 100 RBI. And as for his projected .277 average? Bah. Pencil in .285+. I mean, why not be optimistic? Unlike last year, 2009 Mike Lowell optimism isn’t going to cost you very much.