Friday, January 30, 2009

What Stats Will Chris Davis Have To Get To Justify His ADP?

Chris Davis' ADP is currently 71.13 (Yahoo-style) on Mock Draft Central. Couch Mangers has his ADP at 81.2 (and getting better each day). To take Davis with this pick you will need probably need to pass up your shot at Joe Nathan, K-Rod, Liriano, Josh Beckett, and Derrek Lee.

To give you a another reference point, the hitters that were taken with the 65th - 75th picks last year were Ian Kinsler (67), Miguel Tejada (71), Brad Hawpe (73), Rafael Furcal (75), Adrian Gonzalez (76), and Michael Young (79).

Davis has both 3B and 1B eligibility. According to Mock Draft Central's ADP, Davis is the 11th first baseman taken and the seventh third baseman taken. In 2008, the 10th-ranked first baseman was Carlos Delgado (96 runs | 38 HR | 115 RBI | 1 SB | .271). So for Davis to play first base for your team, he'd probably need to hit .285, get 100 runs and RBIs, and hit over 30-35 home runs.

But you wouldn't be drafting Davis to play first base, as he's more valuable as a fantasy third baseman. The seventh-ranked third baseman in 2008 was Chipper Jones (82 runs | 22 HR | 75 RBI | 4 SB | .364). The eighth-ranked third baseman was Aramis Ramirez (97 runs | 27 HR | 111 RBI | 2 SB | .289). So to play third base for your team, Davis will probably need to hit over .285, get 90 runs and RBIs, and hit 25-30 home runs.

Garrett Atkins is currently being drafted .01 picks ahead of Davis. (Note: Atkins finished the 2008 season as the 86th-best player in the Y! game.) So, arguably, as long as Davis can do what people think Atkins will do, Davis justifies his ADP. Well, in 2008, Atkins had a solid season (86 | 21 | 99 | 1 | .286) and Bill James doesn't think he'll do much better than that this year.

Then again, if we believe anything Bill James projects, then there is really no point to this column, because if Davis plays the way Bill James thinks he'll play (107 | 40 | 118 | 8 | .302), he'll easily outpace his ADP.

I started this post thinking that it will be unlikely for Davis to justify his current ADP, but if all he has to do is beat Atkins' or Aramis' stats from 2008, it very well could be possible. Last year, TK Sinkhole bought into the Matt Kemp and Evan Longoria hype and it mostly worked out, but we also bought into the Alex Gordon and Justin Upton hype, and that worked out less well. All things considered, I'm still feeling a little gunshy about going after a young guy like Davis, but I can certainly see how others wouldn't hesitate to spend their sixth-round pick on him.

One other thing: I wanted to post the stats of the player who finished the 2008 season ranked as the 71st-best player, but I was unable to find them. I'll probably just wait until Y! opens the doors to its 2009 game to add that information to this post. UPDATE: The 72nd-best player in the Y! game in 2008 was Dan Uggla (97 | 32 | 92 | .260 | 5).

Other Chris Davis articles of note:

  • Future looks bright for Rangers.

  • Chris Davis: Is he the next Josh Fields or Evan Longoria?

  • Razzball on Chris Davis
  • Thursday, January 29, 2009

    Ten Early Thoughts on Jeff Clement

    Note: This post is for catcher trolls.

  • He could get 500 at bats from the catcher position, as he will probably play DH most of the time and then sub in for Johjima once a week or so.

  • Bill James projects 520 at bats, 20 home runs, and a .256 batting average

  • Ranked as the 27th-best catcher here and 20th-best here

  • Hit .337 with 14 HRs, 35 walks, 30 Ks, and a 1.131 OPS in 173 Triple-A at bats last year

  • Clement is 25 years old and just had his second knee surgery. Don't expect a single stolen base from this guy

  • "The knee feels great. I have been working with a physical therapist and am making steady progress. I haven't had any setbacks and now it's a matter of getting back into catching shape." --Jeff Clement on 1/28/09

  • Clement prefers catching regularly because it helps his offense. He went 8-for-72 (.111) with no home runs and two RBIs last season as the DH, compared to 34-for-129 (.264) with five home runs and 21 RBIs when he started games at catcher.

  • No one is talking about this guy, so it's not like anyone would ever need to reach to get him (and in one-catcher leagues he'll go undrafted)

  • 500-plus good at bats from the catcher position would be huge

  • Look, he probably won't hit better than .260, but should be watched closely because of his at-bat potential
  • Wednesday, January 28, 2009

    Quick Pitch: Tommy Hanson

    • 9th ranked prospect by ESPN's Keith Law
    • 92-95 fastball, dominating curve; also throws a slider, and changeup
    • Braves Minor League Pitcher of the Year
    • Led the AFL in wins (5), ERA (0.63) and strikeouts (49 in 28 2/3 IP), holding hitters to a .105 batting average.
    • 22 years old
    • Projected to be an early season call-up
    • Looks like he could take his frustration out on water coolers and air conditioning units
    March 3rd, 2009 Update: Not a bad start: Three innings, three Ks, zero runs.

    Ten Early Thoughts on Nelson Cruz

  • Nelson Cruz is 28 years old

  • He did not make the Opening Day roster in 2008

  • The Rangers have four outfielders who merit regular playing time: Josh Hamilton, Marlon Byrd, David Murphy and Nelson Cruz. Rotating them through the DH spot is a possibility.

  • Cruz hit 37 home runs in 383 Triple A at bats last year

  • Projections vary from 28 HRs, 18 steals and a .278 average (Bill James) to 10 HRs, four steals and a .257 average (Marcel)

  • Cruz is Rotoauthority's #1 sleeper

  • He attempted a steal 25% of the time he was on first base in the minors

  • His ADP is currently in the 15th-to-17th round range, but my guess is that he will become less of a bargain over the next few months

  • Crooked Pitch readers think Pablo Sandoval, Matt Wieters, and Ian Stewart will be better sleepers than Cruz and Razzball has his hesitations.

  • Cruz's font couldn't get any bigger in this tag cloud
  • Tuesday, January 27, 2009

    Ten Early Thoughts on Pablo Sandoval

  • This 22-year-old will have catcher eligibility in Yahoo leagues (11 games played at catcher last year)

  • He's ranked 13th overall catcher and seen as a bit of a sleeper by Razzball

  • Pablo's nickname is "Little Money"

  • Bill James projects Sandoval to hit 17 Hr, 103 RBi, and bat .320 in 540 at bats in 2009

  • Sandoval did not make an error in 85 innings at 3rd base last year

  • Sandoval is currently penciled in as the 3b for the SF Giants

  • It is possible the Giants pick up another 3b before the start of the season, and that would push Sandoval to first and move Travis Ishikawa back to the minors

  • He has a career minor league line of .303/.342/.445

  • It is a little strange to see someone who is 5'10", 260 pounds playing catcher and third base

  • Guess who tore up the Venezuela League this winter? This guy.
  • Monday, January 26, 2009

    Ten Early Thoughts on Chris Carpenter

  • He has missed most of the last two years with injuries

  • He is currently 33 years old

  • I have yet to see him drafted before the 20th round

  • Dude isn't listed as one of the top 82 starting pitchers by this site

  • He had a 1.07 WHIP in 221 innings in 2006

  • A recent report says he might become the Cardinals' closer in 2009

  • I'd say the chances of Carpenter ever becoming a closer are less than 19%

  • If he did become a closer, he'd have that nifty SP/RP eligibility

  • Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel do not think Carpenter will top 100 innings in '09

  • Carpenter did well on his recent "nerve conduction test" and "feels great"

  • Bonus bulletpoint: a Carpenter write-up in Baseball Notebook.
  • The Best Places To Go To Get Smart About Fantasy Baseball

    I've found these sites to be interesting and/or helpful:


    Fantasy Ball Junkie



    The Hardball Times

    And of course, Rotoworld

    What are some sites that you've been monitoring?

    Note: Other interesting / helpful site have been added to the "stuff to read" sidebar on the right.