Friday, January 30, 2009

What Stats Will Chris Davis Have To Get To Justify His ADP?

Chris Davis' ADP is currently 71.13 (Yahoo-style) on Mock Draft Central. Couch Mangers has his ADP at 81.2 (and getting better each day). To take Davis with this pick you will need probably need to pass up your shot at Joe Nathan, K-Rod, Liriano, Josh Beckett, and Derrek Lee.

To give you a another reference point, the hitters that were taken with the 65th - 75th picks last year were Ian Kinsler (67), Miguel Tejada (71), Brad Hawpe (73), Rafael Furcal (75), Adrian Gonzalez (76), and Michael Young (79).

Davis has both 3B and 1B eligibility. According to Mock Draft Central's ADP, Davis is the 11th first baseman taken and the seventh third baseman taken. In 2008, the 10th-ranked first baseman was Carlos Delgado (96 runs | 38 HR | 115 RBI | 1 SB | .271). So for Davis to play first base for your team, he'd probably need to hit .285, get 100 runs and RBIs, and hit over 30-35 home runs.

But you wouldn't be drafting Davis to play first base, as he's more valuable as a fantasy third baseman. The seventh-ranked third baseman in 2008 was Chipper Jones (82 runs | 22 HR | 75 RBI | 4 SB | .364). The eighth-ranked third baseman was Aramis Ramirez (97 runs | 27 HR | 111 RBI | 2 SB | .289). So to play third base for your team, Davis will probably need to hit over .285, get 90 runs and RBIs, and hit 25-30 home runs.

Garrett Atkins is currently being drafted .01 picks ahead of Davis. (Note: Atkins finished the 2008 season as the 86th-best player in the Y! game.) So, arguably, as long as Davis can do what people think Atkins will do, Davis justifies his ADP. Well, in 2008, Atkins had a solid season (86 | 21 | 99 | 1 | .286) and Bill James doesn't think he'll do much better than that this year.

Then again, if we believe anything Bill James projects, then there is really no point to this column, because if Davis plays the way Bill James thinks he'll play (107 | 40 | 118 | 8 | .302), he'll easily outpace his ADP.

I started this post thinking that it will be unlikely for Davis to justify his current ADP, but if all he has to do is beat Atkins' or Aramis' stats from 2008, it very well could be possible. Last year, TK Sinkhole bought into the Matt Kemp and Evan Longoria hype and it mostly worked out, but we also bought into the Alex Gordon and Justin Upton hype, and that worked out less well. All things considered, I'm still feeling a little gunshy about going after a young guy like Davis, but I can certainly see how others wouldn't hesitate to spend their sixth-round pick on him.

One other thing: I wanted to post the stats of the player who finished the 2008 season ranked as the 71st-best player, but I was unable to find them. I'll probably just wait until Y! opens the doors to its 2009 game to add that information to this post. UPDATE: The 72nd-best player in the Y! game in 2008 was Dan Uggla (97 | 32 | 92 | .260 | 5).

Other Chris Davis articles of note:

  • Future looks bright for Rangers.

  • Chris Davis: Is he the next Josh Fields or Evan Longoria?

  • Razzball on Chris Davis

    AntiBionics said...

    And he hits in a terrific ballpark in a pretty excellent lineup, despite losing Milton Bradley.

    You're right that he's more valuable as a 3B, but if he puts up the James line, he'd be more than acceptable as your 1B.

    Now, is he worth a 6th round pick? That feels awfully high for a mostly unproven player who struck out a lot in the minors.

    I'd predict if one could get him between the 8th and 10th rounds, he'd be a good bargain with the possibility of being a steal.

    DrGravitee said...

    If he puts up the James line, he'll be a first or second round draft pick next year. And so yes, he'd be fine at 1b in that case. But when we look at him as a draft pick, I think we have to think of him as a 3b, as that allows us to hedge our bets a bit.

    If he's going in the 6th round now in January, long before the hype machines at various fantasy outlets have even been plugged in, I'm guessing he goes in the 4th - 5th round by the time we draft in March. No way he lasts until the 8th - 10th round, unless he has a really stinky spring.

    Of course this is all speculation now, as we are holding this discussion in freaking January. A little silly to be sure. But fun.