Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Could Roy Halladay Give You A 1,083% Return On Your Draft Investment?

Let's set the ground rules: These rankings were generated using the normal five pitching categories, save one big exception: I used Quality Starts instead of Wins. The idea behind this genius move was to eliminate some of the quasi-randomness of the Win category so that you can better focus on quality of pitching.

Oh, and one more note: these ranks work for H2H or regular Roto-style play only (and not points). I'm currently in the middle of a H2H points-style Sandbox draft right now, and the player values in that league are completely different (mostly because of the +1 point for walks and -1 point for strikeouts; it also appears that high-end starting pitching is more valuable than hitting, as points are given for outs and complete games). Example: Matt Kemp, who is probably a top 40 player in the Y! roto-style games, finished out of the top 200 in the Sandbox-style points game last year (he strikes out a lot and doesn't walk much).

Okay, I'll shoot a few bullet points at you first, and then show you the ranking list second so that you can see what I'm talking about. Why in reverse? Because that way you'll think I'm smart, and then after you see the list you'll think to yourself, "oh, he just used the list to make his points. He's not smart at all." But for those precious seven seconds after you've read the bullet points but before you've read the list, you will think that I'm smart.

Comments on the top 150 SPs in the Y! game in 2008:

  • Lots of good deals to be had among the top 150 starting pitchers.

  • For example, if Halladay repeats his 2008 stats, he'll provide more return on your draft investment than any other player in the majors. Is that a green halo over his head? (Pictured above.)

  • If you believe Nolasco can come close to duplicating his stats from 2008, you should jump on him because he'll give you great value relative to his draft position.

  • Other guys people don't seem to trust (and, in some cases, with reason): Harden, Ervin Santana, Duchescherer, Dempster, Lowe, and Saunders.

  • Wainwright and Lester are going a little ahead of their 2008 value, so unless you think they will get a bit better in 2009, you probably don't want to draft them.

  • Kuo sneaks in with his dual RP/SP eligibility.

  • Baker and Danks are flying a little under the radar.

  • Surprisingly, Shields has been getting respect. People are drafting him as if he'll duplicate his 2008 stats.

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    Comments on the SPs ranked 151-252 in the Y! game in 2008:

  • Greinke had good months and bad months. More people seem to believe in the good months.

  • Slowey had only one start in April.

  • Lots of volatility here, as evidenced by all the undrafteds. I'd guess that half the guys on the 151-252 list aren't on it next year.

  • No pitchers that are being drafted on the list below are a particularly good deal...

  • ...except maybe Morrow and Joba, who should move up the rankings when they pitch more innings, get more quality starts, and increase their K totals.

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    Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.
  • 1 comment:

    Dan Butter said...

    Every fiber of my being says to avoid Harden. But what if he manages to stay healthy? What if? Lots of return on draft investment.