2009 Spring Training: What have we learned about Chris Davis?

If you drafted BJ Upton in a league with DL slots, you are probably wondering when will the Rays finally put BJ Upton on the DL? Well, any day now. Any second, even.

Speaking of Disabled Lists, how do those work at the start of the season? This link will tell you.

So Matt Wieters is in the minors. But what does this mean? When will he be called up? First, let me just state for the record that these rules confuse the heck out of me. Second, because I don't understand them, I'll defer to this site with regards to "Super-Two" verbiage. Third, well, there is no third.

Chone Figgins is 3rd this spring with 8 SB. He also has 3 CS, 1 HR, is batting .407 and has a 7 Ks and 7 BBs. A pretty good spring.

Matt Kemp has 3 SB and 4 CS. Does this concern me? No it does not. I'd be more scared if I were an Alfonso Soriano owner (0 SB, 3 CS).

Chris Davis is the Spring Training leader with 23 Ks. He also has 9 BBs, is batting .310, and has 5 HR. I still think Chris Davis is worth his Average Draft Position (ADP). Also note that Jay Bruce has 20 Ks and only 4 BBs.

Elijah Dukes is not exactly tearing it up this spring: .250 AVG, 1 HR, 3 SB, 16 K, 7 BB. But I am not worried. I really do think he'll win the job and get 500 plus at bats this year and go, minimum, 20 HR / 20 SB.

Sheffield was cut, as Aaron Gleeman discusses here. Sure, Sheff was batting .178, but note that he did have 13 walks and 10 Ks when he was cut.

Ryan Howard leads ST with 9 HRs. Nelson Cruz has 6, as does soon-to-be-2B-eligible Mark Teahen. Alex Gordon has five.

Two hot players: Todd Helton (.515 AVG, 4 HR, in 33 at bats) and Milton Bradley (.524 AVG, 4 HR in 42 at bats).

You need speed to get triples, and Fred Lewis has three of them this spring. He also is batting .373 and has 3 SB (but 2 CS).

Your current Spring Training hits leader? Pablo Sandoval with 29. The rotund Sandoval also manged to steal a base.

Daniel Murphy of the Mets has been a sexy pickup of late, especially after it was announced that he'd hit second in the Mets lineup. He is tied for second this spring with 28 hits. He also has 1 HR, 2 SB, and a .364 AVG.

Ubaldo Jimenez has 14 Ks and 13 BBs. Not very encouraging for a guy who has control issues. Then again, the sample size is so small it isn't really all that meaningful. Take Matt Capps, a guy who hardly every walks anyone during the regular season, and somehow he has 9 walks and only 12 Ks this spring. Then again, Jimenez has also hit three batters this spring, which is arguably more wild than just issuing walks.

My main man Motte leads ST with 4 saves but more importantly he appears to have at least a portion of the closer role. Hey, LaRussa said it, not me.

No one has given up more runs than Zach Greinke this spring (25 runs in 23.1 innings). Don't fret. Cliff Lee is giving up a lot of runs (23 runs in 16.2 innings) but he is supposedly working on something to do with his fastball. Scott Baker has given up an eye-opening 9 home runs in 23.2 innings. I really don't think that any of these stats are all that meaningful.

MLB season, please start soon.

BJ Ryan will be understanding when he loses the closer role

BJ Ryan has been terrible this spring: six appearances, five innings, six runs, six walks, five strikeouts. But these stats don't matter because it is only spring training, right? Well, maybe not in Ryan's case. His velocity is down around 84 MPH and isn't improving and his manager is starting to freak out and float the idea that Ryan gives up the closer role to the media. Here is what his manager said: "I think (Ryan is) the type of guy, if he feels like he can't help us, he'll just say maybe use someone else," Gaston said Thursday. "He might not say it, but he understands."

He might not say it but he understands? Classic. Anyway, here are a few potential BJ Ryan replacements to keep an eye on until Ryan uses non-verbal communication methods to show that he is ready to graciously step aside:

Jeremy Accardo (pictured) - You might remember him as the guy who saved 30 games for Toronto in 2007. Let me throw some of his 2007 numbers at you: 67 innings, 7.62 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, 2.38 K/BB, 1.11 WHIP. Accardo spent most of 2008 dealing with arm troubles and hanging out with Dr. James Andrews. Bill James projects a 1.23 WHIP for 2009. In other news, Toronto manager Cito Gaston tried Accardo out as a starter this spring, but that plan was abandoned when Accardo got lit up for seven runs in two innings. In 9.1 innings this spring, he's given up nine runs, but of course seven of them came in that one outing early in the spring. He has two walks, four strikeouts, and one save this spring. 3/31 UPDATE: Accardo was just sent to the minors.

Jesse Carlson - Carlson's 2008 stats were very similar to Accardo's 2007 stats: 60 innings, 8.25 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 2.62 K/BB, and a 1.03 WHIP. He also had two saves. Bill James projects Carlson's 2009 WHIP to rise (to 1.27), once Carlson's BABIP normalizes (it was .235 last year, and James projects .312 this year).

Scott Downs - Last year, in 70.2 innings, Downs had 7.26 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 2.11 K/BB, 1.15 WHIP, 5 saves. Bill James projects a 1.30 WHIP.

These three guys might be clones: all have a decent K/9 (over 7), a slightly elevated BB/9 (over 3.0), and a mediocre K/BB. Of these three guys, my gut says Accardo is the best pitcher, but that could just be me remembering his glory days of 2007. He's coming off injury, and the performance of post-injury RPs is difficult to predict. The latest news seems to suggest that Downs would take over as closer in the event that BJ isn't up to snuff.

Jays GM JP Ricciardi is not concerned about BJ Ryan. But remember, this is the same JP Ricciardi that lied through his teeth about BJ two years ago.

3/31 Update: Scott Downs might open the season as the Jays' closer.

The Five Players I Drafted In Both Of My Fantasy Baseball Leagues

I'm participating in two leagues this year: an 8-team keeper H2H points-based Sandbox league, and a 12-team keeper H2H roto-based Y! league. Despite the vastly different formats, I expected to draft some of the same players in both drafts. And I did double-draft a few players, just not the guys I expected. Here are the five players that I drafted in both leagues:

Matt Wieters - I got Wieters at a reasonable price in the Sandbox league, especially considering all the hype (and it is a two-catcher league), but by the time the Y! draft came along, my Wieters man-crush was at its peak and I reached a bit. Now, a week later, I can laugh about it (sort of), but I must say I'm really hoping he starts the season with the big league team. It's pretty annoying to have that red "NA" next to his name, as it means I can't slide him into my DL slot. Oh, so why did I draft him? Part of it was getting carried away, sure, but I mostly drafted him because he's the first universally-loved prospect I've ever come across. He also walked more than he struck out last year, and so he'll probably be viable in any points league that penalizes strikeouts (like my Sandbox league). Combine all that with the keeper league format, and you can see why I starting getting excited. In the back of my head I'm thinking, wow, if this Wieters guy ends up being a cross between Mike Piazza and Joe Mauer, how can I go wrong? These expectations are probably completely unreasonable. I know this. But it's fun to own someone like Wieters. It's fun to be able to root for his success. Oh, and propaganda pieces like this certainly help keep the optimism machine buzzing. 3/29 UPDATE: It's official: Wieters sent to minors.

John Smoltz - When all the good SPs are off the board, I find I have a hard time pulling the trigger on the crappy endgame SPs. My brain knows that Mark Buehrle will win 15 games, but my heart won't let me draft him. As a result of this stubbornness, I frequently end up drafting players who have been amazing in the past, but are pretty far down the ranks because of injury or circumstance. For example: I always end up drafting the Carlos Marmol-types over the Kevin Gregg-types. Gregg might play well this year, sure, but the finger I use to draft will only allow me to draft the players who have certifiable talent (sorry Gregg). That's why I stick with H2H, as it doesn't penalize you as much for taking pitchers who are going to miss half the year. So, enter John Smoltz...you know, the SP who hasn't had a WHIP over 1.19 since 1996. He won't be back until June, and so I'll have to slide him into my DL slot for a few months. While it isn't a great idea to stockpile injured players in leagues with small benches, I was able to convince myself that in a head-to-head league, winning in September is more important than winning in April. I'll take the 16th-round gamble that Smoltz will regain his dominant form in Boston.

Brandon Morrow - Morrow walks too many guys (4.73 BB/9). This bothers me. He has been experiencing some arm "tightness" this spring. This worries me. But then I look at his incredible K/9 rate (10.44), and his WHIP (1.14), and I feel much better. Oh, and I'm fine with Seattle turning him into a closer. I love unhittable closers that have SP/RP eligibility.

Roy Halladay - Maybe I was swayed by my own post in which I noted that Halladay will bring a 1083% return on investment if he manages to duplicate his 2008 stats. I know some of you out there think that Halladay will regress to his 2007 form (139 K, 1.24 WHIP), a form that was excellent but not quite as good as his 2008 form (206 K, 1.05 WHIP), but you can count me among the folks that think Halladay will come close to duplicating his stats from 2008. Either way, he's worth a fourth-round pick in mixed league 12-team drafts.

Elijah Dukes - Dukes has been falling in drafts, I think, because he isn't guaranteed a starting gig and he plays for a team that has an incredibly crowded outfield. So, I unilaterally decided that Dukes would win the starting gig in spring training. I'll probably be proven right (please!), but in truth this decision has yet to be confirmed. Anyway, assuming that Dukes does get the starting gig, it is tempting to double his stats from the 286 at bats he has last season and get a gaudy 26 HR, 26 SB season. For what it's worth, Lastings Milledge thinks Dukes will go 30-30 this year. Imagine? And it is not like Dukes is some hacker--the dude can take a walk. Not bad for a 19th-round pick in the 12-team mixed league draft. Very McLouth-ish. (McLouthsian?)

My 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft Cheatsheet

I've already outlined an SP-heavy strategy here, and an RP-heavy strategy here. In our money league, however, The Sinkhole used neither of these strategies. Instead, we generated a cheatsheet of players that we wanted to target in each round and used it as a guide during the draft. Sometimes our targets were unreasonable—like there was no way Carlos Lee was going to fall to round five—but that just meant we didn't draft that player. And sometimes we completely ignored our cheatsheet and let our emotions get the better of us, which is the only possible explanation for why we drafted Wieters three rounds ahead of the round we were targeting him in.

So here is the cheatsheet for our Yahoo 12 team mixed keeper league H2H roto (not points) draft that uses standard 5*5 categories (except Quality Starts instead of Wins), daily lineup changes, five bench spots, 7 pitchers (SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P), one catcher, and four outfielders; we had the 8th pick. Perhaps it will help you make your draft cheatsheet. (Note: our cheatsheet underestimated the speed with which SPs would be drafted in rounds 9 through 15, so you might want to adjust accordingly.) Our actual picks are highlighted in bold (although we didn't always get the players in bold in the rounds we were targeting to get them in, and sometimes we picked players not found on our cheatsheet):

1.Pick #8 Braun, MCabrera, Sizemore, Hamilton (pictured above)
2.Pick #17 Utley, Rollins, BUpton,
3.Pick #32 Kemp, ARod, Markakis, Holliday
4.Pick #41 Halladay / Hamels, Alexei
5.Pick #56 Markakis, Soriano, CarlosLee, Grandy, Rios
6.Pick #65 Chris Davis, Tulo, McLouth, Bay, Hart, Pence
7.Pick #80 Votto? Pence, JShields, Lackey, Cano,
8.Pick #89 Votto
9.Pick #104 Gallardo, Nolasco
10.Pick #113 Nolasco, Soria, Marmol, Broxton, Joba, KWood
11.Pick #128 Nolasco / Greinke, Wieters
12.Pick #137 Price, Wieters, MBradley, VWells, Milledge
13.Pick #152 Morrow / Scherzer, Baker
14.Pick #161 Capps, Qualls, Bell
15.Pick #176 Sandoval
(Emerg 2B: JLopez)
16.Pick #185 Hawpe, JUpton, NCruz, Tavares
17.Pick #200 Slowey, Bedard, RandyJ, Francisco
18.Pick #209 Smoltz, Taveras, AJones, Kershaw
(Emergency SS OCabrera)
19.Pick #224 Kuo, Carpenter
(Emergency 3B: Gordon, Cantu, Beltre, Reynolds)
20.Pick #233 Balfour, Putz, Andrus
21.Pick #248 Maine, Dukes, Butler, Motte
(Emerg C: Shoppach)
22.Pick #257 Lind, IStewart
(Emerg 3B: Lowell, Blalock, Kouz)
Drafted players not on cheatsheet: Guthrie, Maholm, & Atkins.

(If you are interested, the actual final outcome our draft can be found here and here.)

The Complete List of Female In-Game Dunks (According To YouTube)

Look. I do find it strange that male fans/sportswriters seem way more excited about the female dunk then female fans/sportswriters, or even the female players themselves. Male fans/sportswriters need to chillax.

Also: why is it that anytime a video of a female dunking is posted on YouTube, some haters feel the need to post a comment 1. expressing that the dunk is closer to a layup, 2. discussing how they themselves can dunk with ease, 3. pontificating on the sexuality of the dunker, and 4. stating that they could easily beat the female dunker in a game of one-on-one basketball? Give me a break. Don't bring that garbage here.

So, with that in mind, this post isn't intended to glorify the female dunk, or even suggest that women's basketball would be better with more dunking. It certainly isn't intended to rank or judge female dunks. It is no more than a catelogue of female dunks that can be found on YouTube. (I know, I know. I'm sure other in-game dunks have happened, but as I said in my NBA dunking post, one could argue that if a dunk isn't posted on YouTube, it never happened.) One-stop shopping for female YouTube dunks, if you will. Enjoy.

In-Game WNBA Dunks

(Note: in most cases you can click on a given name to see video of the qualifying dunk.)

2002: Lisa Leslie - First in-game dunk in WNBA history (7/30/02).
2005: Lisa Leslie - No video of this All-Star game dunk (7/9/05).
2006: Michelle Snow - Also in the All-Star game (7/12/06).
2008: Candace Parker - Second WNBA in-game dunk (6/22/08).
2008: Candace Parker - Back-to-back games (6/24/08).



In-Game Collegiate Dunks

1984 - 05: Georgeann Wells - First woman to dunk in a game. Link includes nice follow-up story and recently-found video of dunk.
1994: Charlotte Smith - First dunk in a decade. Dunk was televised, but I can't find clip of it online.
2000 - 01: Michelle Snow - Against Illinois. Also dunked against South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
2003: Sancho Lyttle - Against Gonzaga.
2005 - 08: Candace Parker had, as far as I can tell, seven in-game collegiate dunks. Here are five of them:
Candace Parker - First and second dunk in NCAA tourney
Candace Parker - Against West Virginia
Candace Parker - Against UCONN (@ 2:19)
Candace Parker - Against Kentucky
The rest of Parker's collegiate dunks can be found spliced into this video.
2007: Sylvia Fowles - Against Louisiana-Lafayette. No video of that one, but there is video of her dunking at the 2009 Euro All-Star Game and again in a 2008 game overseas.

Also note: Parker, in the 2004 FIBA Junior World Championship Qualifying Tournament Games, had three dunks in five games to lead the USA team to the Gold Medal.

In-Game High School Dunks

2001 - 04: As far as I can tell, Candace Parker had two high school dunks.
2007-09: Brittney Griner is already the most prolific female in-game high school dunker ever. She's in-game dunked more than 50 times this season alone. Some of her recent in-game dunking exploits can be found here, where she dunked twice in a Feb 27th, 2009 playoff game. Here is a Griner in-game dunk from March 6th, 2009. Want even more info? Fine. This was posted two weeks ago: an interview with B. Griner.

A Smattering of Out-Game Dunks

Maya Moore - In warm-ups.
Michelle Snow - With Parker in warm-ups.
Candace Parker - Wins HS slam dunk contest.
Tudy Reed - Dunked to get a guy.

So, only eight different women have in-game dunked: Wells, Smith, Snow, Leslie, Lyttle, Parker, Fowles, and Griner. That's pretty select company. Think I missed someone? Then get the video footage of it up on YouTube. You can also let me know by leaving a note in the comment section.

Optional reading

Controversy: ESPN The Mag writes about Candace Parker's alphabet cups.

480 photos of Candace Parker.

The Complete List Of Current NBA Players That Don't (Can't) Dunk In Games

Growing up, my favorite basketball player was Eric Murdock. I used to go to a lot of Providence College basketball games, and Murdock and Carlton Screen were the stars of the team back then. Murdock wasn't a dunker, and although I have a hazy memory of seeing him dunk in a game once, the only video clips of him scoring that I could find were of his signature layup off the glass (see picture).

As I was watching the NCAA Tourney today, I was reminded of Murdock and his non-dunking ways, and I began to wonder how many current NBA players can't dunk. Well, judging from this article, about 20 current NBA players can't dunk. Good to know, but not specific enough for me; I needed to know exactly which twenty-ish current players are unable to dunk. I used the process of elimination and YouTube to get my answer.

What follows is a list of all the guys who do not have an in-game dunk posted on YouTube. Not the most scientific way of separating the dunkers from the non-dunkers, but one could argue that if a dunk isn't on YouTube, it never happened.

List A: These players are on the non-dunking list until a YouTube clip of an in-game dunk surfaces

(Note: I also referenced the CBS Dunk-O-Meter.)

6'5" Roko Ukic - Easily, but in warmups & in writing only.
6'3" Steve Blake - Almost. In-game dunk @ 2:26.
6'3" Steve Nash - This is the closest he's come.
6'3" Beno Udrih - Lots of layups in this mix.
6'3" Jamaal Tinsley - No dunk in top 5 plays.
6'3" Jason Hart - Layup-ish.
6'3" Damon Jones - Gets dunked on here.
6'3" Sergio Rodriguez - Reverse layup.
6'2" Luke Ridnour
6'2" Rafer Alston - Rumored to have in-game dunked.
6'2" Anthony Roberson
6'2" Kevin Ollie
6'2" Mike James - Blocked dunk attempts don't count.
6'2" Marcus Banks
6'2" Chris Quinn - Elevates on jumper.
6'1" Mo Williams - Blocks shot near rim. Added 9/21/10 by Anon: Mo Williams dunking on Pierce.
6'1" Travis Diener
6'1" Eddie House
6'1" Jacque Vaughn - Mix sans dunks.
6'0" DJ Augustin - Layup.
6'0" Sean Singletary - Almost.
6'0" Jameer Nelson - Layup.
6'0" Tyronn Lue
6'0" Seb Telfair - This low-quality video, but no dunks in this mix.
6'0" Kyle Lowry - This low-quality video, but no dunks in this mix.
5'11" Speedy Claxton - All-alone fastbreak layups here.
5'11" Chucky Atkins
5'10" JJ Barea - Practices floaters in this clip.
5'10" Brevin Knight - Floater.
5'10" Mike Wilks - A good view of someone else's dunk.

List B: These players are confirmed dunkers and have been crossed off the non-dunking list (click on name to play video of qualifying dunk)

Jose Calderon
Tony Parker
Chris Paul
Jason Kidd
Kirk Hinrich
JJ Reddick
Ray Allen
Zach Randolph
Allen Iverson
Sun Yue
Oberto
Luis Scola
Deron Williams
Derek Fisher
Anthony Carter
Mike Bibby
Jason Williams
Earl Watson
Luther Head
Chauncey Billups
Louis Williams
Leandro Barbosa
Devin Harris
Monta Ellis
Rajon Rondo
Shannon Brown
Raymond Felton
Lindsay Hunter
Eric Snow - With Snow commentary.
Randy Foye
Goron Dragic
Daniel Gibson
Delonte West
Jason Terry
Aaron Brooks
TJ Ford
Jarrett Jack
Ronnie Price
Jordan Farmar
Mario Chalmers
Gilbert Arenas - I miss Gil.
Kenyon Dooling
Charlie Bell
Will Bynum
Fred Jones
Mike Taylor
Bobby Brown
Anthony Johnson
Willie Green
Jerryd Bayless
George Hill
*Ramon Sessions
*Matt Bonner
*Royal Ivey
*Juan Dixon - Hmm. Small & grainy pic.
*Andre Miller
**CJ Watson - He can...video? (Dunk-O-Meter says 1 in '09)
**Chris Duhon - Yes, but in game? (Dunk-O-Meter says 1 in '09)
**Mike Conley - Pops can, but... (Dunk-O-Meter says 2 in '09)

*Photo proof only (no video found)
**Dunk-O-Meter proof only (no video found)

List C: It is possible these players are non-dunkers, but they are no longer in the NBA

5'5" Earl Boykins (playing in Italy)
6'0" Dan Dickau (waived)
5'10" Damon Stoudamire (retired)

My guess is that about ten of the guys on List A have actually dunked in a game, but for whatever reason that video isn't posted on YouTube. If true, this would still leave about twenty guys left on the non-dunker list, which is consistent with the SI article I referenced earlier in this post.

Am I missing anyone? Do you have video proof that could move a player from List A to List B? Great. Post it in the comment section and I'll update the list. The idea is for this list to get more accurate over time.

What Will Your Waiver Wire Look Like After Your Draft?

The Sinkhole recently participated in a Yahoo 12 team mixed keeper league H2H roto (not points) draft that uses standard 5*5 categories (except Quality Starts instead of Wins), daily lineup changes, five bench spots, one catcher, and four outfielders; we had the 8th pick. Our draft was...interesting. For example: according to the Yahoo Preseason Ranks, we don't have a single top-four player at any position, except outfield. Yikes. We, inexplicably, drafted two catchers in the first thirteen rounds, even though we usually take one catcher with our last pick in a one-catcher league. (And Ramon Hernandez, a decent catcher option, is now laughing at us from the waiver wire.) But the two catchers we got (Sandoval and Wieters) could be a smart pair to own in this Yahoo daily H2H keeper format, so maybe it works out. We also went for a lot of other sexy-yet-unproven players (Chris Davis, Morrow, Scherzer). And no real closers. But we did get some Sinkhole-friendly players, like Zach Grienke, Chris Davis, Pablo Sandoval (pictured above), Alexei Ramirez, Roy Halladay, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Jason Motte.

But this post is about what a waiver wire might look like, not about studying our draft on a granular level. So, I thought it might be instructive to go through the waiver wire of our league and look at the Yahoo preseason ranks of all the guys who didn't get drafted. I also included, in bold, our picks. This should give you an idea of what your waiver wire might look like in a typical 12-team mixed (keeper) yahoo league.

Oh, and after looking at the list below, tell me: which player would be the first guy you'd snag off the wire? We'll be able to put Smoltz in our DL slot soon, so we'll need to make a move.

C
9. Sandoval
10. Wieters
14. Ramon Hernandez
15. Navarro
17. Clement

1B
10. Chris Davis
13. Garrett Atkins
23. Sandoval
24. Adam LaRoche
30. Casey Kotchman
30. Mike Jacobs
30. Helton

2B
6. Alexei
19. Orlando Hudson
21. Freddy Sanchez
22. Iwamura
23. Aaron Miles
24. Alexi Casilla
26. Mark Ellis
25. Fontenot
27. Barmes
28. Asdrubal

SS
5. Alexei
15. Orlando Cabrera
20. Reneria
21. Cristian Guzman
22. Elvis Andrus
23. Jason Bartlett
24. Yuniesky Betancourt
25. Barmes
30. Asdrubal

3B
8. Chris Davis
11. Garrett Atkins
17. Sandoval
22. Lowell
24. Kouzmanoff
29. Wigginton
30. Casey Blake
30. Andy LaRoche

OF
3. Hamilton
4. BJ Upton
15. Matt Kemp
22. Alexei
24. Pence
50. Dukes
53 Fred Lewis
62. Francoeur
64 Luke Scott
65 Jose Guillen
65 Gary Sheffield
65 Jeremy Hermida
68 Travis Snider
68 Chris Dickerson
70 Jack Cust
72. Jason Kubel
73. Kendry Morales
74. Ty Wigginton
75. David DeJesus
77. Ben Francisco
80. Michael Bourn
80. Brian Giles
80. Juan Pierre
80. Colby Rasmus
80. Eric Byrnes
80. Fukudome
80. Schumaker

RP
14. Scherzer
18. Marmol
24. Morrow
27. Corpas
29. Motte
29. Kevin Gregg
35. Chris Perez
36. Kuo
37. Ray
40. Scot Shields
40. Rodney
40. Nunez
40. Batista
40. Aardsma

SP
6. Halladay
23. Greinke
42. Scherzer
52. Morrow
54. Wandy Rod
55. John Maine
56. Mike Pelfrey
62. Oliver Perez
66. Jonathan Sanchez
67. Maholm
71. Kuo
72. Sean Marshall
73. Smoltz
74. Andy Pettitte
78. Ian Snell
79. Guthrie
80. Sonnanstine
80. Galarraga
80. Arroyo
80. Neftali Feliz
80. Aaron Cook
80. Trevor Cahill
80. Brad Penny
80. Phil Hughes
80. David Purcey
80. Carlos Carrasco

Mike Lowell Optimism Despite Looming Pessimism

After his excellent 2007 season, Mike Lowell was the 125th player drafted before the start of the 2008 baseball season. He was the 11th third baseman drafted.

In 2009, he’s been the 24th third baseman drafted. His Average Draft Position (ADP) is 207.

In a year when things get pretty thin at the 3B position after the first ten rounds or so, it’d be nice to have a late-round 3B who could perform as a top 12-to-15 third baseman. Is the 35-year-old Mike Lowell that guy?

Well, he’s probably not going to duplicate his 2007 stats:
79 R, 21 HR, 120 RBI, 3 SB, .324 AVG in 589 at bats

For 2009, Bill James projects:
59 R, 16 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB, .277 AVG in 462 at bats

But let’s say that Lowell manages to get in 589 at bats again. This is not completely improbable, as he averaged 551 at bats in the eight-season stretch that ran from 2000 to 2007. I know, I know, but for the sake of argument, let’s just pretend he can get in 589 at bats in 2009. How would this change Bill James’ 2009 projection? Like so:
75 R, 20 HR, 96 RBI, 3 SB, .277 AVG

That’s not too bad, is it? Granted, Bill James is the most optimistic man on the human planet, but still. I wonder, how would this manipulated projection compare with the top 15 3B from the 2008 season?
Well, Troy Glaus was the 15th-best 3B (and 121st player overall) last year with these stats:
69 R, 27 HR, 99 RBI, 0 SB, .270 AVG in 544 at bats.

Not convinced? Kevin Kouzmanoff was the 18th-best 3B (and 198th overall) last year with these stats:
71 R, 23 HR, 84 RBI, 0 SB, .260 AVG in 624 at bats.

My point is this: Lowell was unable to live up to his high ADP in 2008, but he is a very good bet to outperform his ADP in 2009. And I’ll add this tidbit: he might be a better late-round 3B to add then 29 HR hitting, 11 SB stealing (possibly redundant) Mark Reynolds.

Mark Reynolds has a contact rate of 62.3%, one of the worst rates in the league. This doesn’t mean that he’s going to suck, of course, but I think it is safe to say that his inability to make contact will give his owners intermittent headaches throughout the season. For example, Reynolds batted .293 in June of last year, and then batted .217 for the next two months. Yikes.

Look, I’m still interested in Reynolds, mostly because of the 30 HR / 10 SB potential so late in the draft (although I'm less interested in him in H2H leagues), but if you want a safer, more consistent option to slide into your 3B slot (especially in H2H leagues), why not try Lowell? Lowell’s career contact rate is 88.8%. He’s recovering well from his October hip surgery (he went 2-for-2 with a HR against the Yanks in his first game back at 3B) and is on track to be ready for Opening Day.

I encourage you to blame Lowell’s 2008 struggles on his hip. Assume the Red Sox will play Lowell at 3B nearly every day despite his fragility. Oh, so you bring up how Kevin Youkilis has been taking more grounders at third this spring just in case Lowell has a setback? Stop trying to scare me. It won't work. Pencil in 20 HR and nearly 100 RBI. And as for his projected .277 average? Bah. Pencil in .285+. I mean, why not be optimistic? Unlike last year, 2009 Mike Lowell optimism isn’t going to cost you very much.

Chris Bosh vs. Nate Robinson: What Happened Next?

Check out this photograph:

Now vote in this poll...what do you think happened immediately after this photograph was taken?



Want to know what actually happened? Then watch this video by clicking here.

And that's all for this installment of What Happened Next?

Is Jason Motte Leading the STL Closer Battle?

Jason Motte has had an interesting path to the majors: he went from .191 hitting catcher to 96.6 MPH throwing pitcher.

He has reportedly moved in front of Chris Perez in the battle for the closer role.

A Cardinals blogger thinks Motte may get "quite a number" of saves this season.

Motte got a save (albeit meaningless) the other day.

He had an insane 14.85 K/9 in the PCL league last year. Plus, he looks insane when he's pitching. The insanely good / insane looking combo is not bad for a potential closer who isn't even getting drafted in most leagues.

A feeble attempt to provide additional context: Tony LaRussa, Motte's manager, seems to prefer experience in the closer role, and it should also be noted that Motte is only a few bad outings away from starting the season in Triple-A. But did you see that 14.85 K/9 number? Insane!

Audio on Motte from a January 18th, 2009 interview: "We were at a dinner last night for Tony's foundation and he [Tony LaRussa] introduced us [Motte & Chris Perez] and he's like these are the two guys who are probably going out for the closer role."

3/13 UPDATE: "La Russa, who earlier had said veteran Ryan Franklin also was a candidate to close early in the season, reiterated that he thought both Perez and Motte could be closers. 'If one guy emerges, he becomes the closer. If he doesn't, then they all kind of share it,' said La Russa."

Perez got a save on Friday, March 13th but also gave up 2 runs. He's now given up 3 runs in 5 innings this spring. Rotoworld speculates in their news feed that Perez won't start the season as closer. Then again, this is just spring training so maybe we're getting ahead of ourselves here.

3/17/09 Update: "Jason Motte touched 98 mph consistently and struck out the side in the eighth inning of Monday's ballgame, holding fast to a 6-6 tie."

3/20 UPDATE: Chris Perez is shut down for the next several days. So now it's probably down to Motte and Franklin for the closer role. And Kinney. And anyone else LaRussa dreams up. Pitching coach Dave Duncan said this: "Anyone who's been following what's been going on would notice that among those receiving consideration (to close), Motte has been the most impressive. There's a ways to go in camp. But that's where it stands for me."

3/31 Update: It's official! Rotoworld reports that Motte will get at least some of the saves. How many? Who else might get saves? That we don't quite know yet. What we do know is that Chris Perez has been sent to the minors, and so if Motte does end up having to share the role, it will probably be with Franklin and/or Kinney.

4/6 Update: Well, Motte got St. Louis' first save opportunity, thus completing the improbable switch from hitter to pitcher, a move that is otherwise known as the reverse Ankiel. That said, the catcher-turned-closer did blow his first save in spectacular fashion. The silver lining? He was one strike away from escaping from a 1-run save. Hopefully he gets a few more chance before getting pulled. Okay, I'm done updating this post. If Motte does anything worthwhile in the future, it will be noted in a new post. This post is getting unwieldy.

Conclusion: Motte might already be the favorite to close, he costs next to nothing to draft, and he has a brief track record of striking out boatloads of guys. Put that in your craw and ponder it.

Conclusion #2: As Motte slowly begins to get hyped, it is important to keep in mind that his fastball is straight as an arrow and his secondary pitches have room for improvement. What I do I mean by this? Well, not to crash my own Motte, party, but it is possible that major league hitters eventually begin to catch up with Motte. That said, it is also possible that he continues to click along striking out everything in his path. If he does bomb, we can't complain because he was very cheap to draft. My thought? I think he'll be amazing for most of the season and then have a few rough patches after the All-Star break. Pure speculation, of course.