What Will Your Waiver Wire Look Like After Your Draft?

The Sinkhole recently participated in a Yahoo 12 team mixed keeper league H2H roto (not points) draft that uses standard 5*5 categories (except Quality Starts instead of Wins), daily lineup changes, five bench spots, one catcher, and four outfielders; we had the 8th pick. Our draft was...interesting. For example: according to the Yahoo Preseason Ranks, we don't have a single top-four player at any position, except outfield. Yikes. We, inexplicably, drafted two catchers in the first thirteen rounds, even though we usually take one catcher with our last pick in a one-catcher league. (And Ramon Hernandez, a decent catcher option, is now laughing at us from the waiver wire.) But the two catchers we got (Sandoval and Wieters) could be a smart pair to own in this Yahoo daily H2H keeper format, so maybe it works out. We also went for a lot of other sexy-yet-unproven players (Chris Davis, Morrow, Scherzer). And no real closers. But we did get some Sinkhole-friendly players, like Zach Grienke, Chris Davis, Pablo Sandoval (pictured above), Alexei Ramirez, Roy Halladay, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Jason Motte.

But this post is about what a waiver wire might look like, not about studying our draft on a granular level. So, I thought it might be instructive to go through the waiver wire of our league and look at the Yahoo preseason ranks of all the guys who didn't get drafted. I also included, in bold, our picks. This should give you an idea of what your waiver wire might look like in a typical 12-team mixed (keeper) yahoo league.

Oh, and after looking at the list below, tell me: which player would be the first guy you'd snag off the wire? We'll be able to put Smoltz in our DL slot soon, so we'll need to make a move.

C
9. Sandoval
10. Wieters
14. Ramon Hernandez
15. Navarro
17. Clement

1B
10. Chris Davis
13. Garrett Atkins
23. Sandoval
24. Adam LaRoche
30. Casey Kotchman
30. Mike Jacobs
30. Helton

2B
6. Alexei
19. Orlando Hudson
21. Freddy Sanchez
22. Iwamura
23. Aaron Miles
24. Alexi Casilla
26. Mark Ellis
25. Fontenot
27. Barmes
28. Asdrubal

SS
5. Alexei
15. Orlando Cabrera
20. Reneria
21. Cristian Guzman
22. Elvis Andrus
23. Jason Bartlett
24. Yuniesky Betancourt
25. Barmes
30. Asdrubal

3B
8. Chris Davis
11. Garrett Atkins
17. Sandoval
22. Lowell
24. Kouzmanoff
29. Wigginton
30. Casey Blake
30. Andy LaRoche

OF
3. Hamilton
4. BJ Upton
15. Matt Kemp
22. Alexei
24. Pence
50. Dukes
53 Fred Lewis
62. Francoeur
64 Luke Scott
65 Jose Guillen
65 Gary Sheffield
65 Jeremy Hermida
68 Travis Snider
68 Chris Dickerson
70 Jack Cust
72. Jason Kubel
73. Kendry Morales
74. Ty Wigginton
75. David DeJesus
77. Ben Francisco
80. Michael Bourn
80. Brian Giles
80. Juan Pierre
80. Colby Rasmus
80. Eric Byrnes
80. Fukudome
80. Schumaker

RP
14. Scherzer
18. Marmol
24. Morrow
27. Corpas
29. Motte
29. Kevin Gregg
35. Chris Perez
36. Kuo
37. Ray
40. Scot Shields
40. Rodney
40. Nunez
40. Batista
40. Aardsma

SP
6. Halladay
23. Greinke
42. Scherzer
52. Morrow
54. Wandy Rod
55. John Maine
56. Mike Pelfrey
62. Oliver Perez
66. Jonathan Sanchez
67. Maholm
71. Kuo
72. Sean Marshall
73. Smoltz
74. Andy Pettitte
78. Ian Snell
79. Guthrie
80. Sonnanstine
80. Galarraga
80. Arroyo
80. Neftali Feliz
80. Aaron Cook
80. Trevor Cahill
80. Brad Penny
80. Phil Hughes
80. David Purcey
80. Carlos Carrasco

Mike Lowell Optimism Despite Looming Pessimism

After his excellent 2007 season, Mike Lowell was the 125th player drafted before the start of the 2008 baseball season. He was the 11th third baseman drafted.

In 2009, he’s been the 24th third baseman drafted. His Average Draft Position (ADP) is 207.

In a year when things get pretty thin at the 3B position after the first ten rounds or so, it’d be nice to have a late-round 3B who could perform as a top 12-to-15 third baseman. Is the 35-year-old Mike Lowell that guy?

Well, he’s probably not going to duplicate his 2007 stats:
79 R, 21 HR, 120 RBI, 3 SB, .324 AVG in 589 at bats

For 2009, Bill James projects:
59 R, 16 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB, .277 AVG in 462 at bats

But let’s say that Lowell manages to get in 589 at bats again. This is not completely improbable, as he averaged 551 at bats in the eight-season stretch that ran from 2000 to 2007. I know, I know, but for the sake of argument, let’s just pretend he can get in 589 at bats in 2009. How would this change Bill James’ 2009 projection? Like so:
75 R, 20 HR, 96 RBI, 3 SB, .277 AVG

That’s not too bad, is it? Granted, Bill James is the most optimistic man on the human planet, but still. I wonder, how would this manipulated projection compare with the top 15 3B from the 2008 season?
Well, Troy Glaus was the 15th-best 3B (and 121st player overall) last year with these stats:
69 R, 27 HR, 99 RBI, 0 SB, .270 AVG in 544 at bats.

Not convinced? Kevin Kouzmanoff was the 18th-best 3B (and 198th overall) last year with these stats:
71 R, 23 HR, 84 RBI, 0 SB, .260 AVG in 624 at bats.

My point is this: Lowell was unable to live up to his high ADP in 2008, but he is a very good bet to outperform his ADP in 2009. And I’ll add this tidbit: he might be a better late-round 3B to add then 29 HR hitting, 11 SB stealing (possibly redundant) Mark Reynolds.

Mark Reynolds has a contact rate of 62.3%, one of the worst rates in the league. This doesn’t mean that he’s going to suck, of course, but I think it is safe to say that his inability to make contact will give his owners intermittent headaches throughout the season. For example, Reynolds batted .293 in June of last year, and then batted .217 for the next two months. Yikes.

Look, I’m still interested in Reynolds, mostly because of the 30 HR / 10 SB potential so late in the draft (although I'm less interested in him in H2H leagues), but if you want a safer, more consistent option to slide into your 3B slot (especially in H2H leagues), why not try Lowell? Lowell’s career contact rate is 88.8%. He’s recovering well from his October hip surgery (he went 2-for-2 with a HR against the Yanks in his first game back at 3B) and is on track to be ready for Opening Day.

I encourage you to blame Lowell’s 2008 struggles on his hip. Assume the Red Sox will play Lowell at 3B nearly every day despite his fragility. Oh, so you bring up how Kevin Youkilis has been taking more grounders at third this spring just in case Lowell has a setback? Stop trying to scare me. It won't work. Pencil in 20 HR and nearly 100 RBI. And as for his projected .277 average? Bah. Pencil in .285+. I mean, why not be optimistic? Unlike last year, 2009 Mike Lowell optimism isn’t going to cost you very much.

Chris Bosh vs. Nate Robinson: What Happened Next?

Check out this photograph:

Now vote in this poll...what do you think happened immediately after this photograph was taken?



Want to know what actually happened? Then watch this video by clicking here.

And that's all for this installment of What Happened Next?

Is Jason Motte Leading the STL Closer Battle?

Jason Motte has had an interesting path to the majors: he went from .191 hitting catcher to 96.6 MPH throwing pitcher.

He has reportedly moved in front of Chris Perez in the battle for the closer role.

A Cardinals blogger thinks Motte may get "quite a number" of saves this season.

Motte got a save (albeit meaningless) the other day.

He had an insane 14.85 K/9 in the PCL league last year. Plus, he looks insane when he's pitching. The insanely good / insane looking combo is not bad for a potential closer who isn't even getting drafted in most leagues.

A feeble attempt to provide additional context: Tony LaRussa, Motte's manager, seems to prefer experience in the closer role, and it should also be noted that Motte is only a few bad outings away from starting the season in Triple-A. But did you see that 14.85 K/9 number? Insane!

Audio on Motte from a January 18th, 2009 interview: "We were at a dinner last night for Tony's foundation and he [Tony LaRussa] introduced us [Motte & Chris Perez] and he's like these are the two guys who are probably going out for the closer role."

3/13 UPDATE: "La Russa, who earlier had said veteran Ryan Franklin also was a candidate to close early in the season, reiterated that he thought both Perez and Motte could be closers. 'If one guy emerges, he becomes the closer. If he doesn't, then they all kind of share it,' said La Russa."

Perez got a save on Friday, March 13th but also gave up 2 runs. He's now given up 3 runs in 5 innings this spring. Rotoworld speculates in their news feed that Perez won't start the season as closer. Then again, this is just spring training so maybe we're getting ahead of ourselves here.

3/17/09 Update: "Jason Motte touched 98 mph consistently and struck out the side in the eighth inning of Monday's ballgame, holding fast to a 6-6 tie."

3/20 UPDATE: Chris Perez is shut down for the next several days. So now it's probably down to Motte and Franklin for the closer role. And Kinney. And anyone else LaRussa dreams up. Pitching coach Dave Duncan said this: "Anyone who's been following what's been going on would notice that among those receiving consideration (to close), Motte has been the most impressive. There's a ways to go in camp. But that's where it stands for me."

3/31 Update: It's official! Rotoworld reports that Motte will get at least some of the saves. How many? Who else might get saves? That we don't quite know yet. What we do know is that Chris Perez has been sent to the minors, and so if Motte does end up having to share the role, it will probably be with Franklin and/or Kinney.

4/6 Update: Well, Motte got St. Louis' first save opportunity, thus completing the improbable switch from hitter to pitcher, a move that is otherwise known as the reverse Ankiel. That said, the catcher-turned-closer did blow his first save in spectacular fashion. The silver lining? He was one strike away from escaping from a 1-run save. Hopefully he gets a few more chance before getting pulled. Okay, I'm done updating this post. If Motte does anything worthwhile in the future, it will be noted in a new post. This post is getting unwieldy.

Conclusion: Motte might already be the favorite to close, he costs next to nothing to draft, and he has a brief track record of striking out boatloads of guys. Put that in your craw and ponder it.

Conclusion #2: As Motte slowly begins to get hyped, it is important to keep in mind that his fastball is straight as an arrow and his secondary pitches have room for improvement. What I do I mean by this? Well, not to crash my own Motte, party, but it is possible that major league hitters eventually begin to catch up with Motte. That said, it is also possible that he continues to click along striking out everything in his path. If he does bomb, we can't complain because he was very cheap to draft. My thought? I think he'll be amazing for most of the season and then have a few rough patches after the All-Star break. Pure speculation, of course.

When will Chone play his 5th game at 2B?

I’m in an eight-team Sandbox keeper points league, and in this format Desmond DeChone Figgins, AKA Chone “Shawn” Figgins, doesn’t qualify for 2B. He needed to play 15 games at 2B in 2008 in order to be eligible at 2B in 2009. He played nine games there in 2008. He’s also played at least nine games at 2B in every season of his career.

As a 3B in an eight-team league, Chone, apparently, isn’t all that interesting. We’re currently in the 21st round of a slowlive draft, and Chone has yet to be drafted. If, however, Chone were to qualify as a 2B early in the 2009 season, he’d be considerably more valuable, as the 2B pool is pretty thin. In order to qualify for 2B in this format, he needs to make five appearances at 2B.

So I began to wonder, when did Chone appear in his fifth game at 2B in 2008? Was it one of those things where he played 3B all year and then in late September he played a string of games at 2B? Or was his 2B playing evenly dispersed throughout the 2008 season?

Well, he played his first 2008 game at 2B on April 27th, his second on April 28th, third on April 29th, fourth on April 30th, and fifth on May 1st. That’s pretty early in the season. But perhaps he got a little lucky last year, as Howie Kendrick and Maicer Izturis had injury issues in April of last year.

So when did Chone play his fifth game at second base in 2007? Well, he played his first 2007 game at 2B on May 3rd, his second on May 10th, third on July 8th, fourth on July 15th, and fifth on July 19th. So he gained second base eligibility significantly later in the season in 2007. But it should be noted that he didn’t play his first 2007 game until April 30th, one full month into the season.

So what have we learned? It took Chone 1 month to gain 2B eligibility in 2008, and 2.5 months to gain 2B eligibility in 2007. It should also be noted that on five of the ten dates listed above in which Chone played 2B, Brandon Wood was in the lineup.

Speaking of Brandon Wood, in January, there had been talk of moving Chone to outfield if Brandon Wood impressed in spring training. What has Wood done so far in spring training? 10-for-24 with two HR and two SB. Impressive. But with Bobby Abreu on the team now, it seems less likely that Chone moves to the outfield to give Wood some playing time (unless Abreu becomes a semi-frequent DHer...or maybe Wood plays some DH. Sigh. A lot is still up in the air). To get Wood into the lineup from time to time (as well as 3B role player Robb Quinlan), the Angels might have to slide Chone over to 2B. Another option would be to have Wood play SS and replace the Maicer Izturis / Erick Aybar platoon going on there.

You have to figure that at worst, Chone will have 2B eligibility 2.5 months into the season, which means Chone could be your second baseman for 60% of the season. And if Brandon Wood keeps hitting in spring training, it could happen much sooner than that. It is a little early to be making predictions, but I’d put the over/under at, say, May 25th, 2009.

Angels have "happy dilemma" in infield: "In eight Cactus League games, Wood is hitting .417 with two homers, two doubles, a triple and an .833 slugging percentage. He leads the club with eight RBIs -- but does not have a position with Chone Figgins at third and Maicer Izturis and Erick Aybar sharing shortstop."

For what it’s worth, Chone is 4-for-14 with three SB and one CS so far in spring training.

One-Stop Shopping for 2009 Fantasy Baseball Position Primers

In an effort to keep things tidy, I've put the following position primers in one post:

1B: Is it possible to make Delgado sexy again?

2B: Is Alexei Ramirez worth his ADP?

SS: Jhonny Peralta is entering his age-27 year...should you invest?

3B: Was Mark DeRosa's 2008 season a "lucky" or "career" year?

C: Kelly Shoppach and his bad contact rate might help your team.

OF: Andre Ethier isn't getting any respect.

SP: Is there a better draft investment than Roy Halladay?

RP: No one else is paying for saves. Does that mean you should?

Gordon Beckham Speaks!

Still early. I know. But Beckham has been turning some heads this spring.

Oh, and if you were wondering what the heck this post was about, I was running a test to see if I could get a twitter feed to superimpose over an image. Also, Beckham has been hot (6-for-18, 2 HR, 1 SB). But perhaps we should take a step back and see what he does over the next 20-some spring games before we jump out of our pants.

Gordon Beckham has a blog! Check it out here. Here is a teaser from his blog: "Well just when I thought I had a lot of things figured out, I realized I had no clue...."

This just in: an interesting video of Gordon Beckham!

Note To Self RE: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft

Draft Stephen Strasburg because he is 7'13" and can throw the ball 117 mph with either arm.



If you don't see a video above, it is probably because you are using google reader, and for some reason the video doesn't appear there (even though YouTube is owned by Google). If this pertains to you, click the title link or the "read more" link and it will bring you to the TKSink blogspot page.

(For fullscreen fun, hit the fullscreen button, which is to the right of the volume button.)

More Strasburg folklore from Y!

A SI article on Strasburg is about to drop, and here is an interview with the guy who wrote the article. UPDATE 5/9: Here is the SI article on Strasburg.

UPDATE 4/27: CTB notes that Strasburg is clicking along: 9-0 1.54 ERA.

UPDATE 5/9: Strasburg throws a 17K no hitter and Boras gets drool on his chin.

2009 Spring Training: Wieters hitting .471

Look. I know these games don't mean much. Still, it is fun to look through the spring training stats and pretend that they provide clues for what the future will bring. So let's agree to suspend our disbelief for a bit and enjoy this post for what it is.

Matt Wieters has 8 hits in 17 at bats, includng a home run (1 BB, 0 K).

Guess who leads the league in strikeouts? Chris Davis, with 11 in 22 at bats. He's batting .182 so far. On the plus side, he also has six walks. If you were thinking of drafting Davis for a points league that gives negative points for strikeouts, the early returns indicate that his strikeouts are going to be a problem.

Matt Murton has two (2!) stolen bases. Before you think he might suddenly morph into David Wright, you should know that he's also been caught two times. Still, the steals are interesting for a guy who has only attempted 11 steals in 900 career major league at bats (he was successful in 8 of his 11 attempts).

It always makes me feel better about a power/speed guy when I see both phases of his game are working in spring training. Which is why I feel good about Corey Hart, who has two home runs and three stolen bases so far, and Matt Kemp, who has three stolen bases and one home run.

Ryan Freel: 5 SB, 0 CS.

Adam Jones: 4 SB, 0 CS.

Pablo "Little Money" Sandoval has 9 hits in 22 at bats, including 2 HR (2 BB, 3 K). He also had a 14-pitch at bat that Carlos Villanueva called "ridiculous." He's had zero innings at catcher, and for those of you in leagues where Sandoval isn't yet catcher eligible, it is unclear if Sandoval will get the starts he needs this year (he needs five in Sandbox) in order to gain catcher eligibility.

Coco Crisp has 7 BB and 2 K so far this spring.

H2H Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Get Some S.A.C. (SB, AVG, and CL)

• A 2010 H2H Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: C.R.A.S.S

H2H leagues, in theory, allow you to try unusual draft strategies. In practice, I find myself reluctant to be too crazy in a money league. My heart says yes, but my head says no. Perhaps both your heart and head like to take risks. If so, you might want to give this strategy a try.

We already went over a pitching heavy strategy that I dubbed PHAC. This time around let's run a stolen base, batting average, and closer strategy up the flagpole and see how it flies. The goal is to win Saves, ERA, WHIP, SB, and AVG each week. To make the strategy more effective, it also helps to target guys who score a lot of runs. But first, a disclaimer.

Disclaimer: Before we delve into this deeper, I need to stress how crazy you'd have to be to try extreme strategies like this at home. You are essentially putting all your eggs in one strategy basket, going for broke, and so if you get a bit unlucky, it is unlikely you will be able to win a majority of the categories on a weekly basis. Even if your strategy works, an unbalanced team can have unlucky weeks and lose 8-2 or 9-1, whereas a more balanced team might suffer the occasional 4-5 and 3-6 loss on unlucky weeks but would rarely suffer a more lopsided loss. To pull this stunt, it also helps if you are in a daily league, as you can better tweak your lineup to protect your ratios (batting average, ERA, and WHIP) throughout the week.

Now. Let's say you have the 8th pick. You're in a regular 5x5, 12-team, H2H roto-style (not points) league, and the pitching slots are SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P. The weekly innings minimum is 12. The hitters are using the default Yahoo! settings (no corner or middle infielders).

Your goal is to target speed, but only if that speed is accompanied with a high batting average. You also want to get as many topline closers as possible. And at the end of the draft, you need two solid relievers with SP/RP eligibility (note: click here for notes on every single RP/SP eligible pitcher in Y! for 2009). You will not draft a single SP. The team you assemble should win you five of the ten categories each week, including ERA, which is the tiebreaker category in Y! leagues. In order to hedge your risk a bit more, I'd target high-average steals guys who also score a lot of runs.

Remember, your draft won't always look pretty, but with a little luck, it should get the job done. Your draft might look something like this:

1.Pick #8 Matt Holliday (.321 AVG, 28 SB, 107 R)
2.Pick #17 Dustin Pedroia (.326 AVG, 20 SB, 118 R) 653 at bats!!
3.Pick #32 Jonathan Pabelbon (ADP = 41)
4.Pick #41 Ichiro (.310 AVG, 43 SB, 103 R) 686 at bats!!
5.Pick #56 Jacoby Ellsbury (.280 AVG, 50 SB, 98 R)
6.Pick #65 Bobby Abreu (.296 AVG, 22 SB, 100 R)
7.Pick #80 Joakim Soria (ADP = 90)
8.Pick #89 Derrek Lee (.291, 8 SB, 93 R)
9.Pick #104 Michael Young (.284 AVG, 10 SB, 102 R)
10.Pick #113 Carlos Marmol (ADP = 111)
11.Pick #128 Kerry Wood (ADP = 123)
12.Pick #137 Matt Capps (ADP = 150)
13.Pick #152 Andre Ethier (.305 AVG, 6 SB, 90 R)
14.Pick #161 Chad Qualls (ADP = 175)
15.Pick #176 Conor Jackson (.300 AVG, 10 SB, 87 R)
16.Pick #185 Joey Devine (ADP = 191)
17.Pick #200 Pablo Sandoval (.345 AVG, 0 SB, 24 R)
18.Pick #209 Hong-Chih Kuo (SP/RP eligibility)
19.Pick #224 Delmon Young (.290 AVG, 14 SB, 80 R)
20.Pick #233 Kaz Matsui (.293 AVG, 20 SB, 58 R)
21.Pick #248 Ryan Theriot (.307 AVG, 22 SB. 85 R)
22.Pick #257 Carlos Villanueva (SP/RP eligibility)

(Note: the players in the above team should be understood as placeholders of sorts, merely to give you a better idea of what this draft strategy might look like if it were to be carried out in the present fantasy baseball market. During your draft, you can always target other pitchers or hitters that you feel are more likely to be available in your league or more likely to perform at a high level during the 2009 season.)

Other hitters you might target:

Nick Markakis (.306 AVG, 10 SB, 106 R)
Juan Pierre (.283 AVG, 40 SB, 44 R)
Brian Roberts (.293, 36 SB, 107 R)
Shane Victorino (.293 AVG, 36 SB, 102 R)
Matt Kemp (.290 AVG, 35 SB, 93 R)
Alex Rios (.291 AVG, 32 SB, 91 R)
Johnny Damon (.303 AVG, 29 SB, 95 R)
Randy Winn (.306 AVG, 25 SB, 84 R)
Fred Lewis (.282 AVG, 21 SB, 81 R)
Coco Crisp (.283 AVG, 20 SB, 55 R)
Denard Span (.294 AVG, 18 SB, 70 R)
Mark DeRosa (.285 AVG, 6 SB, 103 R)
Chipper Jones (.364 AVG, 4 SB, 82 R)
Iwamura (.274 AVG, 8 SB, 91 R)
Skip Schumaker (.302, 8 SB, 87 R)
Placido Polanco (.307 AVG, 7 SB, 90 R)
Jose Lopez (.297 AVG, 6 SB, 80 R)
Shin-Soo Choo (.309 AVG, 4 SB, 68 R)
Ryan Ludwick (.299 AVG, 4 SB, 104 R)
Kevin Youkilis (.312 AVG, 3 SB, 91 R)
Joe Mauer (.328 AVG, 1 SB, 98 R)
Milton Bradley (.321 AVG, 5 SB, 78 R)
Mike Aviles (.291 AVG, 8 SB, 68 R)
Kelly Johnson (.287 AVG, 11 SB, 86 R)
David DeJesus (.307 AVG, 11 SB, 70 R)
Howie Kendrick (.306 AVG, 11 SB, 43 R)
Shin-Soo Choo (.309 AVG, 4 SB, 68 R)

This strategy can work even better if you are in a holds league (Kuo and Villanueva will be getting Holds from the SP slot). It works less well when using Quality Starts instead of Wins (if you are using Wins, your relievers might get lucky and take the category a few times). You also keep in mind that targeting high-average players who get a ton of at bats (Ichiro and Pedroia, for example) is a great way to solidify your batting average.

So at the end of this draft you have high-average hitters who score a lot of runs, and most of them can swipe a base. You'd have six closers, and two relief pitchers who also qualify for the SP slot. Your "wall" of relievers should produce a low WHIP and ERA each week. Being in a daily league will allow you to rotate players into your lineup, and so your team should accumulate 30 - 40 innings each week. One drawback of this strategy is that ratios can be a little unpredictable in small sample sizes, so you might get unlucky in any given week. Remember Derek Jeter went 0-32 to start the 2004 season? He ended up hitting .292 that year, but his hitless streak would have really hurt your team for a few weeks.

Anyway. It's a fun strategy, one I've always wanted to use but I've never had the guts to do it. Maybe you do.

If it helps, here is the cheatsheet I used in my actual draft.