2009 Spring Training: What have we learned about Chris Davis?

If you drafted BJ Upton in a league with DL slots, you are probably wondering when will the Rays finally put BJ Upton on the DL? Well, any day now. Any second, even.

Speaking of Disabled Lists, how do those work at the start of the season? This link will tell you.

So Matt Wieters is in the minors. But what does this mean? When will he be called up? First, let me just state for the record that these rules confuse the heck out of me. Second, because I don't understand them, I'll defer to this site with regards to "Super-Two" verbiage. Third, well, there is no third.

Chone Figgins is 3rd this spring with 8 SB. He also has 3 CS, 1 HR, is batting .407 and has a 7 Ks and 7 BBs. A pretty good spring.

Matt Kemp has 3 SB and 4 CS. Does this concern me? No it does not. I'd be more scared if I were an Alfonso Soriano owner (0 SB, 3 CS).

Chris Davis is the Spring Training leader with 23 Ks. He also has 9 BBs, is batting .310, and has 5 HR. I still think Chris Davis is worth his Average Draft Position (ADP). Also note that Jay Bruce has 20 Ks and only 4 BBs.

Elijah Dukes is not exactly tearing it up this spring: .250 AVG, 1 HR, 3 SB, 16 K, 7 BB. But I am not worried. I really do think he'll win the job and get 500 plus at bats this year and go, minimum, 20 HR / 20 SB.

Sheffield was cut, as Aaron Gleeman discusses here. Sure, Sheff was batting .178, but note that he did have 13 walks and 10 Ks when he was cut.

Ryan Howard leads ST with 9 HRs. Nelson Cruz has 6, as does soon-to-be-2B-eligible Mark Teahen. Alex Gordon has five.

Two hot players: Todd Helton (.515 AVG, 4 HR, in 33 at bats) and Milton Bradley (.524 AVG, 4 HR in 42 at bats).

You need speed to get triples, and Fred Lewis has three of them this spring. He also is batting .373 and has 3 SB (but 2 CS).

Your current Spring Training hits leader? Pablo Sandoval with 29. The rotund Sandoval also manged to steal a base.

Daniel Murphy of the Mets has been a sexy pickup of late, especially after it was announced that he'd hit second in the Mets lineup. He is tied for second this spring with 28 hits. He also has 1 HR, 2 SB, and a .364 AVG.

Ubaldo Jimenez has 14 Ks and 13 BBs. Not very encouraging for a guy who has control issues. Then again, the sample size is so small it isn't really all that meaningful. Take Matt Capps, a guy who hardly every walks anyone during the regular season, and somehow he has 9 walks and only 12 Ks this spring. Then again, Jimenez has also hit three batters this spring, which is arguably more wild than just issuing walks.

My main man Motte leads ST with 4 saves but more importantly he appears to have at least a portion of the closer role. Hey, LaRussa said it, not me.

No one has given up more runs than Zach Greinke this spring (25 runs in 23.1 innings). Don't fret. Cliff Lee is giving up a lot of runs (23 runs in 16.2 innings) but he is supposedly working on something to do with his fastball. Scott Baker has given up an eye-opening 9 home runs in 23.2 innings. I really don't think that any of these stats are all that meaningful.

MLB season, please start soon.

2009 Spring Training: Wieters hitting .471

Look. I know these games don't mean much. Still, it is fun to look through the spring training stats and pretend that they provide clues for what the future will bring. So let's agree to suspend our disbelief for a bit and enjoy this post for what it is.

Matt Wieters has 8 hits in 17 at bats, includng a home run (1 BB, 0 K).

Guess who leads the league in strikeouts? Chris Davis, with 11 in 22 at bats. He's batting .182 so far. On the plus side, he also has six walks. If you were thinking of drafting Davis for a points league that gives negative points for strikeouts, the early returns indicate that his strikeouts are going to be a problem.

Matt Murton has two (2!) stolen bases. Before you think he might suddenly morph into David Wright, you should know that he's also been caught two times. Still, the steals are interesting for a guy who has only attempted 11 steals in 900 career major league at bats (he was successful in 8 of his 11 attempts).

It always makes me feel better about a power/speed guy when I see both phases of his game are working in spring training. Which is why I feel good about Corey Hart, who has two home runs and three stolen bases so far, and Matt Kemp, who has three stolen bases and one home run.

Ryan Freel: 5 SB, 0 CS.

Adam Jones: 4 SB, 0 CS.

Pablo "Little Money" Sandoval has 9 hits in 22 at bats, including 2 HR (2 BB, 3 K). He also had a 14-pitch at bat that Carlos Villanueva called "ridiculous." He's had zero innings at catcher, and for those of you in leagues where Sandoval isn't yet catcher eligible, it is unclear if Sandoval will get the starts he needs this year (he needs five in Sandbox) in order to gain catcher eligibility.

Coco Crisp has 7 BB and 2 K so far this spring.

What Stats Will Chris Davis Have To Get To Justify His ADP?

Chris Davis' ADP is currently 71.13 (Yahoo-style) on Mock Draft Central. Couch Mangers has his ADP at 81.2 (and getting better each day). To take Davis with this pick you will need probably need to pass up your shot at Joe Nathan, K-Rod, Liriano, Josh Beckett, and Derrek Lee.

To give you a another reference point, the hitters that were taken with the 65th - 75th picks last year were Ian Kinsler (67), Miguel Tejada (71), Brad Hawpe (73), Rafael Furcal (75), Adrian Gonzalez (76), and Michael Young (79).

Davis has both 3B and 1B eligibility. According to Mock Draft Central's ADP, Davis is the 11th first baseman taken and the seventh third baseman taken. In 2008, the 10th-ranked first baseman was Carlos Delgado (96 runs | 38 HR | 115 RBI | 1 SB | .271). So for Davis to play first base for your team, he'd probably need to hit .285, get 100 runs and RBIs, and hit over 30-35 home runs.

But you wouldn't be drafting Davis to play first base, as he's more valuable as a fantasy third baseman. The seventh-ranked third baseman in 2008 was Chipper Jones (82 runs | 22 HR | 75 RBI | 4 SB | .364). The eighth-ranked third baseman was Aramis Ramirez (97 runs | 27 HR | 111 RBI | 2 SB | .289). So to play third base for your team, Davis will probably need to hit over .285, get 90 runs and RBIs, and hit 25-30 home runs.

Garrett Atkins is currently being drafted .01 picks ahead of Davis. (Note: Atkins finished the 2008 season as the 86th-best player in the Y! game.) So, arguably, as long as Davis can do what people think Atkins will do, Davis justifies his ADP. Well, in 2008, Atkins had a solid season (86 | 21 | 99 | 1 | .286) and Bill James doesn't think he'll do much better than that this year.

Then again, if we believe anything Bill James projects, then there is really no point to this column, because if Davis plays the way Bill James thinks he'll play (107 | 40 | 118 | 8 | .302), he'll easily outpace his ADP.

I started this post thinking that it will be unlikely for Davis to justify his current ADP, but if all he has to do is beat Atkins' or Aramis' stats from 2008, it very well could be possible. Last year, TK Sinkhole bought into the Matt Kemp and Evan Longoria hype and it mostly worked out, but we also bought into the Alex Gordon and Justin Upton hype, and that worked out less well. All things considered, I'm still feeling a little gunshy about going after a young guy like Davis, but I can certainly see how others wouldn't hesitate to spend their sixth-round pick on him.

One other thing: I wanted to post the stats of the player who finished the 2008 season ranked as the 71st-best player, but I was unable to find them. I'll probably just wait until Y! opens the doors to its 2009 game to add that information to this post. UPDATE: The 72nd-best player in the Y! game in 2008 was Dan Uggla (97 | 32 | 92 | .260 | 5).

Other Chris Davis articles of note:

Future looks bright for Rangers.

Chris Davis: Is he the next Josh Fields or Evan Longoria?

Razzball on Chris Davis