Showing posts with label Return On Investment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Return On Investment. Show all posts

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Outfield Primer: Either Ethier Rules Or I'm A Cantaloupe

Most players that get passed over in a draft are passed over for a reason. There are millions of reasons to ignore a guy.

Here are a few, off the top of my head: guys that have body parts held together with tissue paper and wood glue (Milton Bradley); guys with depth chart issues (Nick Swisher); guys who hit .209 on the year a few seasons ago (Pat Burrell); guys that might have had a .306 batting average last year but are 38 years old (Brian Giles); guys that have a ton of talent but are really young (Justin Upton); guys that strike out a lot, and so they don't work for your points league (Mark Reynolds); or even guys that have talent but have never had the full time job for a full season before (Shin-Soo Choo).

For this post, I want to concentrate on a guy who is getting ignored for no discernible reason:

Photobucket

Here, let's do one of those Player A, Player B, Player C things. Here are the 2008 stats of three players who played like top 90 players in the 2008 Y! game (otherwise known as a 7th rounder in 12-team mixed league drafts):

Player A: 525 at bats, 90 R, 20 HR, 77 RBI, 6 SB, .305 AVG
Player B: 526 at bats, 69 R, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 7 SB, .297 AVG
Player C: 611 at bats, 86 R, 21 HR, 99 RBI, 1 SB, .286 AVG

Player A is being drafted in the 14th round in 2009
Player B is being drafted in the 10th round in 2009
Player C is being drafted in the 6th round in 2009

Player A is Andre Ethier
Player B is Joey Votto
Player C is Garrett Atkins

My point here is not to beat up on Atkins. I kinda like him. And anyway, he's been getting enough of the overrated talk from other people who like to write about fantasy sports. And my point isn't to say that Votto is being drafted too high. I like Votto and think that he's actually being drafted too low. My point is to show how little respect Andre Either is getting in drafts.

Is there any reason to think Andre Ethier won't at least duplicate what he did last year? (Bill James thinks he will: 532 at bats, 89 R, 19 HR, 79 RBI, 5 SB, .303 AVG.) I understand why Ethier didn't get any love going into last season. For starters, the Pierre/Kemp/Jones/Either logjam in the Dodger outfield was a turnoff. In addition, I think Either was even more overlooked because of all the Matt Kemp hype.

Perhaps his solid season in 2008 is being overlooked because of all the Manny Ramirez hoopla. I don't know. But there is a lot to like going into this season: he will probably get more at bats, and he will probably bat third, one spot in front of Manny Ramirez; he has no health concerns; he's been hitting home runs in spring training, for whatever that's worth; and he's not too young, not too old (26 years old).

Look. Even depth chart nemesis Juan Pierre, who recently was given permission from the Dodgers to explore trade options, concedes that Ethier can play.

Plus, to beat his 2009 ADP, Either just needs to hit somewhere in this range: 79 R, 19 HR, 64 RBI, 4 SB .280 AVG (JD Drew's stats from last year).

While you're thinking this over, you can peruse the following list of outfielders ranked 101 - 252:

Photobucket

Dissenting Opinion:

  • Razzball writes that Ethier is not good for power or speed, and then calls him "Andre Neithier." Then again, he did draft Ethier to be part of his "best 2009 fantasy baseball draft."

    Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.
  • Wednesday, March 4, 2009

    Could Roy Halladay Give You A 1,083% Return On Your Draft Investment?

    Let's set the ground rules: These rankings were generated using the normal five pitching categories, save one big exception: I used Quality Starts instead of Wins. The idea behind this genius move was to eliminate some of the quasi-randomness of the Win category so that you can better focus on quality of pitching.

    Oh, and one more note: these ranks work for H2H or regular Roto-style play only (and not points). I'm currently in the middle of a H2H points-style Sandbox draft right now, and the player values in that league are completely different (mostly because of the +1 point for walks and -1 point for strikeouts; it also appears that high-end starting pitching is more valuable than hitting, as points are given for outs and complete games). Example: Matt Kemp, who is probably a top 40 player in the Y! roto-style games, finished out of the top 200 in the Sandbox-style points game last year (he strikes out a lot and doesn't walk much).

    Okay, I'll shoot a few bullet points at you first, and then show you the ranking list second so that you can see what I'm talking about. Why in reverse? Because that way you'll think I'm smart, and then after you see the list you'll think to yourself, "oh, he just used the list to make his points. He's not smart at all." But for those precious seven seconds after you've read the bullet points but before you've read the list, you will think that I'm smart.

    Comments on the top 150 SPs in the Y! game in 2008:

  • Lots of good deals to be had among the top 150 starting pitchers.

  • For example, if Halladay repeats his 2008 stats, he'll provide more return on your draft investment than any other player in the majors. Is that a green halo over his head? (Pictured above.)

  • If you believe Nolasco can come close to duplicating his stats from 2008, you should jump on him because he'll give you great value relative to his draft position.

  • Other guys people don't seem to trust (and, in some cases, with reason): Harden, Ervin Santana, Duchescherer, Dempster, Lowe, and Saunders.

  • Wainwright and Lester are going a little ahead of their 2008 value, so unless you think they will get a bit better in 2009, you probably don't want to draft them.

  • Kuo sneaks in with his dual RP/SP eligibility.

  • Baker and Danks are flying a little under the radar.

  • Surprisingly, Shields has been getting respect. People are drafting him as if he'll duplicate his 2008 stats.

    Photobucket

    Comments on the SPs ranked 151-252 in the Y! game in 2008:

  • Greinke had good months and bad months. More people seem to believe in the good months.

  • Slowey had only one start in April.

  • Lots of volatility here, as evidenced by all the undrafteds. I'd guess that half the guys on the 151-252 list aren't on it next year.

  • No pitchers that are being drafted on the list below are a particularly good deal...

  • ...except maybe Morrow and Joba, who should move up the rankings when they pitch more innings, get more quality starts, and increase their K totals.

    Photobucket

    Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.
  • Tuesday, March 3, 2009

    Picking on RPs, a Primer: Who The Heck Is Steven Shell?

    -Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves.

    -Uh, what are you doing?

    -I'm repeating the phrase "don't pay for saves" over and over again so that it becomes even more cliched and, a result, even more of a statement of truth.

    -Oh. But you will pay something for saves, right?

    -Probably.

    -So why not use a more accurate phrase, like "don't use high draft picks on closers." Or, "if you are going to draft saves, spend wisely." Or maybe, "it is usually possible to get a solid closer in the later rounds, so try to limit the amount of closers you take in the first ten rounds." Or something.

    -Don't try to trick me with your semantics! Those phrases are not as catchy and, as a result, are probably less of a statement of truth.

    [End scene]

    Okay. So don't break your bank on closers (unless your league settings make lots-o-closers a worthwhile strategy). I get it. As someone who has had Todd Jones repeatedly and single-handedly kill my team's chances of winning weekly H2H games, I don't quite believe in the concept, but at the very least I understand the idea. Maybe these people who hate closers are simply just picking the wrong closers. Tangentially, I must say I dislike having to rely on being super-quick on the waiver wire to round out my stable of closers. I'm one of the fastest guys in my league when it comes to waiver wire pickups. Certainly top three. But I swear, sometimes it feels like closers only get hurt during the two minute window each day I'm away from my computer. I don't know what the right answer is, but I tend to get a closer in the 9th-11th rounds, and then one or two more in the 15th-21st rounds.

    Anyway. Let's start by looking at the relievers that finished in the top 150 of the Y! game in 2008:

    Photobucket

    (Note: to avoid having the semi-randomness of the Win category skew the RP rankings, I opted to use Quality Starts instead of Wins. The other four categories are standard: SV, K, ERA, WHIP.)

    So it would appear that the repetition of the phrase "don't pay for saves" that you hear throughout the fantasy baseball universe is really working: average mock drafters are rarely paying for saves. Soria, who performed like a third rounder last year, is being drafted midway through the seventh round. His saves might be worth paying for. But Soria plays for the Royals. Who cares who Soria plays for? He played for the Royals last year and ended up being the 36th best player in the Y! game.

    Who else? Maybe Kerry Wood, who would give you sixth round value on your tenth round pick if he were to repeat his '08 stats. But Kerry Wood loves to hang out on the DL. True. But if you think he can stay healthy, he should give you a nice return on your investment.

    Then you have the "rising closer" class: Marmol, Qualls, and Devine only had 17 saves combined, and yet all three were ranked in the top 25 in 2008 even without high save totals. And so now that they probably will be getting more save opportunities in 2009, you have to feel good about their chances of outperforming their 2009 ADP.

    A few setup men might also be a nice return on investment. If Balfour, Kuo, Arredondo, Howell, or Thornton can repeat their 2008 numbers in 2009, they will be cheap to draft and will certainly help your fantasy team. Remember that these rankings use Wins instead of Quality Starts, so if you are in a league with Wins, the value of these setup men increases even more.

    The other other thing I'll say about the top 150 RPs is that seeing this list makes me want to avoid Bobby Jenks and B.J. Ryan, and I'm not all that keen on K-Rod, Papelbon, or Capps, either.

    Here are the rest of the RPs in the top 252:

    Photobucket

    This list has two more rising closers in Francisco and Bell. Please also note that Brian Wilson, poster boy for the "closers only help you in one category" believers, is currently being drafted 50 picks ahead of his 2008 value. (By the way, FB Junk works to dispell the closer-as-one-cat. myth in this post.) Unless you believe that Wilson will improve on his 2008 numbers in 2009, he might be someone to avoid.

    And one last thing: Who the shell is Steven Shell? Answer: "Shell, a former Angels prospect, has been quite a find since signing a minor league deal with Washington. He had a 1.96 ERA in 41 1/3 innings out of the pen in 2008, and the stuff is there for him to be a quality setup man going forward." However, he doesn't get much love from The Prognosticators: 4.98 ERA, 1.45 WHIP.

    Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

    Monday, March 2, 2009

    Kelly Shoppach has a bad case of position scarcity.

    Position scarcity. When talking about catchers, the phrase position scarcity frequently gets tossed about. Sounds like some sort of medical condition, doesn't it?

    Person #1: You look a lot better. How are you feeling?

    Person #2: Thanks. I feel better. The medication I'm on has really helped to contain my position scarcity.

    Person #1: Is your position scarcity itchy?

    Person #2: Oh my god yes. Especially in the armpits of my knees.

    At this point, you are probably wondering, what the heck was that? And, can a knee have an armpit? And, if knees did have armpits, wouldn't they be called kneepits? Almost every catcher is a pretty bad deal. But you have to draft one. So the idea here is to limit the damage as much as possible. If each catcher were to repeat his 2008 stats in 2009, the catcher who would be the least damaging to fantasy teams is Kelly Shoppach:

    Photobucket

    So let's pretend that we are confident that Shoppach can at least match his numbers from last season if he gets the playing time. The logical next question is, how much will that Shoppach dude play this year?

    The answer? To be determined. Victor Martinez looks like he's back and healthy (he hit two home runs in a recent spring training game), and you have to believe the Indians will give Travis Hafner every chance to claim the DH role. So that leaves Shoppach fighting with Ryan Garko for playing time. The Indians' manager claims Shoppach will play "a little more than he did last year," and if that is the case Shoppach would be a great guy to have as your fantasy catcher. Last year, Shoppach had 62 at bats in the first two months of the season combined, and then 69, 66, 93, and 60 at bats in the following four months. The Prognosticators project Shoppach to average about 60 at bats per month this year (360 total) and hit between 17 and 19 home runs for the season.

    Conclusion: Hard to say what sort of playing time Shoppach will get but there is a decent chance he's worth his current 19th round draft pick.

    Other reading on the syllabus:

  • "A healthy Martinez at first base improves the team on both offense (fewer AB's for Garko, more for Shoppach) and defense (Shoppach is above average behind the dish)."

  • "Shoppach turned in the best season of his career in 2008 because Victor Martinez was injured. Martinez is healthy again, and there is much anticipation as to how Wedge is going split playing time between the two. Martinez, of course, plays first base as well. The two guys who seem least worried about the situation are Shoppach and Martinez."

  • "Indians manager Eric Wedge has made it clear that Shoppach will catch '08 Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and Martinez will handle No. 2 starter Fausto Carmona...'It's fair to say that Shop's going to get more playing time, but we also know that Victor's going to be playing every day somewhere,' Wedge said. 'Victor's still our catcher, but we feel like we've got another one in Kelly Shoppach, too. Part of it's going to be the other guys we have on the ballclub, Ryan Garko, how much Hafner DHs.' Wedge said the Tribe brass has told Martinez and Shoppach 'we're not sure how this is going to play out.'

  • "But if the Indians decide they are a better team with Shoppach behind the plate and Martinez at first, Martinez is all for it."

  • Asked Wednesday how he'll divvy up playing time between Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Kelly Shoppach and Ryan Garko, manager Eric Wedge said that "Victor and Hafner are going to play every day and Shoppach will play a little more than he did last year."

  • Razzball has Shoppach in the second tier of his catcher rankings.

  • March 25th Update: Shoppach is batting .263/.310/.605 in 38 at-bats this spring.

    Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.
  • Sunday, March 1, 2009

    Will Jhonny Peralta Remember to Drink His Standard-Issue Year-27 Magic Potion?

    If all of the top ten shortstops from 2008 were to put up the same exact stats in 2009, Jhonny Peralta would be the only one of the ten to outplay his 2009 Average Draft Position (ADP). (Although, as I discussed earlier, one could argue that Alexei Ramirez will “tie” his ADP.)

    Little Jhonny had a good year in 2008. But it wasn’t an out-and-out where-the-heck-did-that-come-from year. He stats were mostly in line with his ’05-’08 four-year average. See for yourself:

    Jhonny Peralta’s four-year (2005 – 2008) average:
    89 R, 20 HR, 77 RBI, 2 SB, .274 AVG.

    Jhonny Peralta’s 2008 campaign:
    104 R, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 3 SB, .276 AVG.

    The slight (or, more accurately, minorly sizeable) uptick in R and RBI can be attributed to the fact that the injuredness / poor play of Pronk and V-Mart meant that Peralta was frequently batting in the cleanup spot. I don’t know where he’ll hit in the 2009 order, but in his first spring training game he hit third. It should also be mentioned that if you decide it is okay to throw out the stats from Peralta’s stinker 2006 season, Peralta’s 2008 season looks even more legit. Just for kicks, let’s look at Peralta’s average stats from 2005 – 2008, throwing out his 2006 season:
    91 R, 23 HR, 80 RBI, 2 SB, .279 AVG.

    As the list below shows, Peralta is currently being drafted about 40 picks below his 2008 value:

    Photobucket

    So what sort of stats does he need to get in 2009 in order to be worth his 2009 ADP?

    Well, J.J. Hardy was the 126th ranked player in the Y! game last year with these stats:
    78 R, 24 HR, 74 RBI, 2 SB, .283 AVG.

    Conclusion: As long as Peralta plays somewhat close to his average stats from the last four years, he’ll be better than his 2009 ADP. And that’s saying something because as you can see from all the red in the above list, there are very few shortstops who are capable of outplaying their ADP. More optimistically, if Peralta remembers to drink his standard-issue year-27 magic potion and plays at the top of his ability, he will easily be the best deal among fantasy shortstops. Putting it another way, you can safely draft Peralta as if he were the ninth best SS (and it is unlikely that he isn't at least a top ten SS in 2009), and in doing so you have the chance to make yourself a sweet profit on your initial ADP investment if Peralta happens to once again be the third best SS.

    Oh, and as I’ve already mentioned here and here, I’m a sucker for multiple position eligibility, and it looks like Peralta might have some this season, as it is possible he plays some 3B in 2009.

    Other Peralta Readables:

  • A Quick Hit on Peralta over at Rotoprofessor.

  • Peralta's run totals disproportionately influences his value.

  • Indians Insider: Jhonny Peralta says he steered clear of controversial trainer Presinal

  • Bill James' 2009 projection for Peralta: 97 R, 23 HR, 84 RBI, 3 SB, .274

    Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.
  • Saturday, February 28, 2009

    A Third Base Primer That Strangely Focuses On, Wait For It, Mark DeRosa

    Mark DeRosa turned 34 years old two days ago. Happy belated birthday, Mark. For your birthday I am going to give you something that no one else has given you recently: a post all of your own.

    Let's get to it: DeRosa was the 9th best third baseman last year. He also qualifies as a 2B in all leagues and he was 5th best at that position in 2008. If you draft him, you want him in your 2B slot.

    I know, I know. The fact that I’m talking about DeRosa in what is ostensibly a post about 3B is a little confusing, but I already talked about Alexei in my 2B post (even though I probably should have discussed him as a SS). But remember, this post isn't about doing things in a logical way so as to avoid confusion. This post is about being a birthday present to Mark DeRosa.

    DeRosa has really had two separate careers. In his first career, which ran from 1998 to 2005, he was a teen pop idol. No. Wrong wikipedia page. Ah, yes. Here we go: in his first career, he never had more than 309 at bats. When a guy is unable to find a starting gig in the majors for seven years, it usually is a sign that you don’t want him on your fantasy team. But in DeRosa’s second career, which is heading into its fourth season, he has had 520, 502, and 505 at bats and was a 70-80 R, 10-13 HR, 70-80 RBI, 2-4 SB, .290 type guy.

    The most popular thing to say about DeRosa right now is that he had a “career year” in 2008. Is this true? The answer, it seems to me, is yes and no. DeRosa had more hits and a better batting average in 2006 and 2007 than in 2008. But when people say “career year” what I think they really mean to say is that in 2008, DeRosa more than doubled the amount of home runs he hit in his previous year. DeRosa had 13 HR in 2006, 10 HR in 2007, and 21 HR in 2008. Incidentally, the second most popular thing to say about DeRosa is that “his power numbers should decline in 2009.” And they might, as DeRosa led the league with nine "lucky" home runs in 2008. So I would argue that DeRosa's entire statistical 2008 season wasn't "career," it was just that his home runs were league-leadingly "lucky."

    So that’s the background. Let’s get to the numbers:

    Photobucket

    As you can see from the list above, DeRosa was the 67th best player in the Y! game last year and is being drafted, on average, 134th this year. So my question is, what sorts of stats does DeRosa need this year in order to be better than his ADP?

    Well, the 134th best player in the Y! game in 2008 was Kelly Johnson. Here are his stats:
    86 R, 12 HR, 69 RBI, 11 SB, .287 AVG.

    Can DeRosa top those numbers? To help answer this question, I will show you DeRosa’s 2008 stats, an average of the stats DeRosa generated over the last three years, and Bill James’ 2009 projection for DeRosa:

    DeRosa in 2008:
    103 R, 21 HR, 87 RBI, 6 SB, .285 AVG.

    Average of DeRosa’s 2006-2008 stats:
    81 R, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 3 SB, .291 AVG.

    Bill James’ 2009 DeRosa projection:
    87 R, 17 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB, .273 AVG.

    Conclusion: Some people will read this post and think that DeRosa is STILL going too high in drafts. Others will read it and think that nabbing DeRosa as the 134th pick overall is a great idea, because you are essentially making a low-risk bet that he hits somewhere around his three-year average. And if he happens to hit better than that? Gravy.

    Personally, I probably wouldn’t target DeRosa, but knowing the above information will make me feel comfortable picking him up if he slips much more than his 134 ADP (which is in the 11th round of 12-team mixed-league drafts...in my last few 12-team mock drafts, he has gone in the 11th, 12th, 7th, and 13th rounds). I’m only a moderate fan of DeRosa, but I’m a complete sucker for position flexibility, and DeRosa has a lot of that. DeRosa’s 3B/OF flexibility gives daily leaguers the ability to get a few extra counting stats on days when regulars at those positions aren’t playing (assuming your league doesn’t have 162-game position limits). Plus, having a DeRosa makes it easier to figure out a way to get starters in all positions without dropping valuable guys onto the waiver wire when folks on your team start getting injured.

    There is very little Mark DeRosa reading out there. The stuff below is the best I could find. If you find something you think is interesting, feel free to post it in the comment section.

  • As Razzball says, maybe now that he is in Cleveland people will "no longer overrate a player that was underrated."

  • DeRosa quick to become team leader.

  • Lou, DeRosa deny recent report of rift.

  • A Fake Teams piece on Mark DeRosa from back in early October.

    Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.
  • Friday, February 27, 2009

    Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Which First Basemen Will Exceed Expectations?

    What if every single player in baseball were to put up the same exact stats in 2009 as he did in 2008? If that were to happen, which first baseman would outplay his 2009 Average Draft Position (ADP) in Y! mock drafts by the widest margin?

    And no, this is not the plot of a new movie starring Bill Murray. The intent here is merely to see if jumping through some mental hoops helps us get a better sense of which first basemen might outperform their 2009 Average Draft Position. If you don’t happen to know the answer offhand, or if you don’t know the name of the player pictured on the right, use this list to find the answer:

    Photobucket

    That’s right. Carlos Delgado. You know, the guy who hit 38 home runs last year and has hit more than thirty home runs in eleven of the last twelve seasons.

    Delgado will be turning 37 this season, so while he might be hard pressed to continue to hit more home runs than this age, he is being drafted so far below his 2008 value that even if he were to regress a bit in 2009, it is not unimaginable that he might still outplay his 2009 ADP.

    Let’s put some numbers to this hypothesis. If, in 2009, Delgado were to duplicate his worst season since 1995, would he still outplay his 2009 ADP of 135?

    Delgado’s worst season since 1995 was his 2007 season with the Mets:
    71 R, 24 HR, 87 RBI, 4 SB, .258 AVG.

    The 135th-best hitter in the Y! game in 2008 was Jason Giambi:
    68 R, 32 HR, 96 RBI, 2 SB, .247

    The answer? It’s close. So assuming Delgado can stay healthy in 2009 (which might be a big assumption), he can outperform his 2009 ADP as long as he plays slightly better than how he played in his worst season of the last thirteen years. And yes, I'm as surprised as you are that this post turned into an episode of Pimp My Delgado.

    Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

    Thursday, February 26, 2009

    Is Alexei Ramirez worth his ADP if he duplicates his 2008 stats?

    There are countless ways to determine the value of a player in fantasy baseball, but a common and relatively unscientific method is to glance at a players’ stats and then rely on gut in deciding if that player is going to improve, regress, or simply maintain his current rate of production.

    For example, it seems many owners think Alexei Ramirez—who hit .290 with 65 R, 21 HR, 77 RBI, and 13 SB in only 480 at bats in 2008—will improve in 2009, which explains why he is currently being drafted in the fourth round of Yahoo (Y!) mock drafts. While participating in a recent mock draft, I witnessed an owner bragging about getting Alexei with the 54th overall pick. “Getting Alexei here with this pick is amazing value. He’s gonna mash this year,” the proud owner wrote. “At worst, he’ll duplicate his stats from last year, which would easily make him a top 50 pick.”

    Which got me thinking. If Alexei were to duplicate his stats from last year, would he be a top fifty pick? Turns out, the answer is no. Alexei was the 114th-best player in the Y! last year, which puts his value somewhere in the middle of the ninth round.

    Part of the reason his value was suppressed in the end-of-year 2008 Y! rankings was his 480-at-bat total limited his potential in the counting stats (R, RBI, HR, SB). So what if we were to extrapolate his stats for a 580-at-bat season? How would this change his value?

    Your wish is my command:

    Alexei Ramirez’s 2008 stats extrapolated out for 580-at-bat season:
    79 R, 25 HR, 93 RBI, 16 SB, and a .290 AVG.

    The player closest to having these same stats in 2008 was Vlad Guerrero:
    85 R, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 5 SB, and a .303 AVG.

    Vlad was the 56th-best player in the game in 2008. If Alexei were to duplicate a extrapolated version of his 2008 stats in 2009, he would be almost exactly worth his 50th-overall draft value. No more, no less.

    This list should help give you a better sense of which second basemen might outperform their 2009 Average Draft Position (ADP):

    Photobucket

    (Note: my explanation of this list is a little convoluted, but hopefully it makes sense.)

    Other required Alexei Ramirez reading:

  • Bill James projects Alexei to hit .289 with 88 R, 24 HR, 97 RBI, and 14 SB.

  • Turns out FB Junk also played around with this same data: Who is Really Under/Over Valued?

  • Razzball likes Alexei better than that likeable wood gnome, Dustin Pedroia.

    Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.