Funked-up Starts To The 2009 MLB Season: Six Players Who Are Currently Ranked Below A-Rod

Every year, a few very good baseball players start the MLB season in a bit of a funk. When this happens, you have three choices:
1. Run away from them, screaming
2. Do what you can to get the funked-up player on your team as cheaply as possible
3. Do nothing.

This year I am mostly going to do nothing. Why? Because nearly every player who has started the 2009 season in a funk is already on my team. You don't believe me? Check this out: my entire team is batting .194 over the last week. Thank you Pablo Sandoval (.216 for the season), Chris Davis (.176), Garrett Atkins (.222), Alexei Ramirez (.143), and BJ Upton (.176). Wow.

So, according to the Yahoo! ranking system, Alex Rodriguez is ranked #962 even though he hasn't played a single game yet this year. For those of you who are in position trade for some funked-up players, here are six players who have played so poorly this season that they are ranked below A-Rod in the Y! ranks. Yes, that's right: the players on this list have been so cold at the plate so far this season that you would have been better off if you'd been starting the injured A-Rod over them:

6. David Ortiz (#1085): You might be able to get Ortiz really, really cheaply. He's batting .158 (6-for-38) so far this season, and people are starting to whisper that his career is done. Kaput. Razzball compares Ortiz's career trajectory to Mo Vaughn. Scouts, apparently, are concerned. What do I think? I don't really know, but I'm staying away for now. (That could change, as I always like a bargain.)

5. Justin Upton (#1109): JUpton started the season by batting .130 (3-for-23). His swing, apparently, needs fixing. People are suddenly saying that 21-year old still isn't ready. Funny to think that if he'd just had three more hits, people wouldn't be having this conversation at all. The only reason I hesitate to endorse him is that his manager isn't playing him regularly. This could either turn into a 2008 Matt Kemp situation, where JUpton plays himself into more playing time, or it could result in a Lastings Milledge situation, where JUpton is demoted. I'll sum up my feelings this way: I'm in love with the guy, but he is currently sitting on the waiver wire in my 12-team money league.

4. Chris Iannetta (#1109): Iannetta started the season by batting .048 (1-for-21). Hey, look on the bright side: his defensive skills have improved since last year. (Full disclosure: I was one of those people who fell for JR Towles in the past.) I am not honestly not worried about Iannetta.

3. Jimmy Rollins (#1110 in Y! game): Rollins has started the year 5-40 and doesn't have a single stolen base. Jimmy claims it is all about timing, and quite frankly, I believe him. I am actively pursuing him in trades. Sure, he's cold now, but he'll heat up soon enough.

2. Alexei Ramirez (#1100): Alexei has started the year batting .143 (5-for-35). Am I worried? Yes, but only because he's on my team, and when players are on my team I worry about them constantly. But someone with more perspective would point out that Alexei made some great adjustments last year, and that he's a great bet to do it again this year.

1. Geovany Soto (#1117): Soto is currently batting .118 (2-for-17), but I blame a "sore" shoulder. If the shoulder injury isn't serious, he'll be fine. If his shoulder injury is serious, he might 2008-Victor-Martinez your team. I say the odds are 80/20 that he'll be fine.

Honorable Mention:

Prince Fielder (#673), Carlos Lee (#762), Stephen Drew (#661), Chris Davis (#628), Jay Bruce (#679), and JJ Hardy (#674).

Other Readables:

Fantasy Hurler thinks that Alexei, CDavis, and Ortiz might be droppable at some point this year.

Fantasy Baseball 365 suggests that Justin Upton might be better off if he were in the minors for another year...or two.

Yahoo suggests you should buy Chris Davis and Chris Iannetta and hold Alexei Ramirez.

Razzball on Alexei: don't despair!

Q: Should I trade Alexei Ramirez for JJ Hardy & Rich Harden?

I'm lacking a little bit of context here (is this a daily league? Do you have DL slots? Roto or H2H?), but I'll give a stab at answering Anonymous' question anyway: I wouldn't trade Alexei for JJ & Rich.

Why? Well, blame Rich Harden. My own personal over/under on how many starts he makes this year is 11, and I'd take the under. But remember, I'm the same guy who drafted Harden for both his 2006 (9 starts) and 2007 (4 starts) seasons, but not his 2008 (26 starts) season. I'm also the guy who wrote stuff about Alexei and then drafted him in his own draft. So you can certainly take my advice, but remember that I'm pretty biased here.

As for stats, I wouldn't read much into their stats so far this year:
Alexei: 0-3 (1 game)
Hardy: 0-5 (1 game)
Harden: Yet to pitch in regular season, but did give up three HR in each of his last two spring training starts.

I admit that I'd be tempted because of the Hardy/Harden thing. I'd be especially tempted if your team already has both Uptons on it. Then again, if you have both Manny and Alexei Ramirez I'd be less tempted. On a more serious note, Hardy will get some nice stats at the end of the year, but he seems to get most of them in the same week, so I'd personally avoid him if you are in a H2H league.

I'm all over the place. Bottom line? Stick with Sexy Alexei. Harden is a great player when healthy (top ten SP? top five? He's captain of the all-value-per-appearance team), but you'd be taking a big gamble by trading for him. Arguably (and according to ADP, which is meaningless now that the season has started, but still), Alexei is the best player in the deal, and you rarely want to be on the side of the deal that is giving up the best player.

Good luck, Anon!

4/19/09 Update: Don't give up on Alexei Ramirez yet!

Is Alexei Ramirez worth his ADP if he duplicates his 2008 stats?

There are countless ways to determine the value of a player in fantasy baseball, but a common and relatively unscientific method is to glance at a players’ stats and then rely on gut in deciding if that player is going to improve, regress, or simply maintain his current rate of production.

For example, it seems many owners think Alexei Ramirez—who hit .290 with 65 R, 21 HR, 77 RBI, and 13 SB in only 480 at bats in 2008—will improve in 2009, which explains why he is currently being drafted in the fourth round of Yahoo (Y!) mock drafts. While participating in a recent mock draft, I witnessed an owner bragging about getting Alexei with the 54th overall pick. “Getting Alexei here with this pick is amazing value. He’s gonna mash this year,” the proud owner wrote. “At worst, he’ll duplicate his stats from last year, which would easily make him a top 50 pick.”

Which got me thinking. If Alexei were to duplicate his stats from last year, would he be a top fifty pick? Turns out, the answer is no. Alexei was the 114th-best player in the Y! last year, which puts his value somewhere in the middle of the ninth round.

Part of the reason his value was suppressed in the end-of-year 2008 Y! rankings was his 480-at-bat total limited his potential in the counting stats (R, RBI, HR, SB). So what if we were to extrapolate his stats for a 580-at-bat season? How would this change his value?

Your wish is my command:

Alexei Ramirez’s 2008 stats extrapolated out for 580-at-bat season:
79 R, 25 HR, 93 RBI, 16 SB, and a .290 AVG.

The player closest to having these same stats in 2008 was Vlad Guerrero:
85 R, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 5 SB, and a .303 AVG.

Vlad was the 56th-best player in the game in 2008. If Alexei were to duplicate a extrapolated version of his 2008 stats in 2009, he would be almost exactly worth his 50th-overall draft value. No more, no less.

This list should help give you a better sense of which second basemen might outperform their 2009 Average Draft Position (ADP):



(Note: my explanation of this list is a little convoluted, but hopefully it makes sense.)

Other required Alexei Ramirez reading:

Bill James projects Alexei to hit .289 with 88 R, 24 HR, 97 RBI, and 14 SB.

Turns out FB Junk also played around with this same data: Who is Really Under/Over Valued?

Razzball likes Alexei better than that likeable wood gnome, Dustin Pedroia.

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.