What sort of draft pick is Hafner worth, if any?

Let's start here: "Pronk has a lot to prove this season, and it could turn out to be a nice story for fans if he can return to something resembling the guy who used to get MVP votes. But like I said, 50/50 proposition at this point."

This means that drafting Hafner gives you a fifty percent chance at MVP-votes production. Not bad for a guy that I haven't seen get picked before the 19th round. If we somehow knew for certain that Hafner had a fifty percent chance of having great stats this year, he might even be worth a pick in the top ten rounds.

But this analysis doesn't feel quite right. It feels like reading a little too much into the use of the phrase "50/50." Perhaps it was meant more in the way of "I have no idea but it certainly is possible that Hafner plays well." If that be true, perhaps the phrase "50/50" in this context really means something closer to "10/90." And when he says "MVP votes" maybe he really just means "a respectable home run total of, say, more than 25 or so." Even so, I'd probably use a 19th round pick on a guy who had a ten percent chance of getting "MVP votes."

Here is what others are saying:

Hafner is not considered to be one of the top five fantasy players on his own team.

Rotoauthority thinks he's worth rolling the dice for late.

He didn't play any 1B last year so he's probably going to be a UTL clogger with his DH-only eligibility.

Hafner, who had shoulder surgery in October, plans to be ready to go by Opening Day and has tentative plans to begin hitting in late February.

Rotosavants doesn't think Hafner will hit 30+ homers again.

Pronk is dead to Fantasyhurler and he considers him borderline undraftable. Razzball agrees.

Rotoprofessor considers him a late-round power option, and projects .275 with 28 HR, 85 RBI and 85 R.

The most optimistic of The Prognosticators has Hafner hitting 25 home runs.

Hafner's coach says he'll play every day.

Baseball Notebook calls him a sleeper, sort of.

No structural damage was found in Hafner's shoulder during his October surgery...does this mean he doesn't really have any excuses for playing so poorly in 2008?

Conclusion: A classic either-you-believe-or-you-don't player. Could be a decent guy to get late and stash simply because he barely costs anything to draft. Let's see what he does this spring.