Monday, February 9, 2009

What sort of draft pick is Hafner worth, if any?

Let's start here: "Pronk has a lot to prove this season, and it could turn out to be a nice story for fans if he can return to something resembling the guy who used to get MVP votes. But like I said, 50/50 proposition at this point."

This means that drafting Hafner gives you a fifty percent chance at MVP-votes production. Not bad for a guy that I haven't seen get picked before the 19th round. If we somehow knew for certain that Hafner had a fifty percent chance of having great stats this year, he might even be worth a pick in the top ten rounds.

But this analysis doesn't feel quite right. It feels like reading a little too much into the use of the phrase "50/50." Perhaps it was meant more in the way of "I have no idea but it certainly is possible that Hafner plays well." If that be true, perhaps the phrase "50/50" in this context really means something closer to "10/90." And when he says "MVP votes" maybe he really just means "a respectable home run total of, say, more than 25 or so." Even so, I'd probably use a 19th round pick on a guy who had a ten percent chance of getting "MVP votes."

Here is what others are saying:

  • Hafner is not considered to be one of the top five fantasy players on his own team.

  • Rotoauthority thinks he's worth rolling the dice for late.

  • He didn't play any 1B last year so he's probably going to be a UTL clogger with his DH-only eligibility.

  • Hafner, who had shoulder surgery in October, plans to be ready to go by Opening Day and has tentative plans to begin hitting in late February.

  • Rotosavants doesn't think Hafner will hit 30+ homers again.

  • Pronk is dead to Fantasyhurler and he considers him borderline undraftable. Razzball agrees.

  • Rotoprofessor considers him a late-round power option, and projects .275 with 28 HR, 85 RBI and 85 R.

  • The most optimistic of The Prognosticators has Hafner hitting 25 home runs.

  • Hafner's coach says he'll play every day.

  • Baseball Notebook calls him a sleeper, sort of.

  • No structural damage was found in Hafner's shoulder during his October surgery...does this mean he doesn't really have any excuses for playing so poorly in 2008?

    Conclusion: A classic either-you-believe-or-you-don't player. Could be a decent guy to get late and stash simply because he barely costs anything to draft. Let's see what he does this spring.
  • 1 comment:

    Hank Hulkum said...

    I say the over/under on Pronk's 2009 HR total is 19. And I take the under.