One-Stop Shopping for 2009 Fantasy Baseball Position Primers

In an effort to keep things tidy, I've put the following position primers in one post:

1B: Is it possible to make Delgado sexy again?

2B: Is Alexei Ramirez worth his ADP?

SS: Jhonny Peralta is entering his age-27 year...should you invest?

3B: Was Mark DeRosa's 2008 season a "lucky" or "career" year?

C: Kelly Shoppach and his bad contact rate might help your team.

OF: Andre Ethier isn't getting any respect.

SP: Is there a better draft investment than Roy Halladay?

RP: No one else is paying for saves. Does that mean you should?

Gordon Beckham Speaks!

Still early. I know. But Beckham has been turning some heads this spring.

Oh, and if you were wondering what the heck this post was about, I was running a test to see if I could get a twitter feed to superimpose over an image. Also, Beckham has been hot (6-for-18, 2 HR, 1 SB). But perhaps we should take a step back and see what he does over the next 20-some spring games before we jump out of our pants.

Gordon Beckham has a blog! Check it out here. Here is a teaser from his blog: "Well just when I thought I had a lot of things figured out, I realized I had no clue...."

This just in: an interesting video of Gordon Beckham!

Note To Self RE: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft

Draft Stephen Strasburg because he is 7'13" and can throw the ball 117 mph with either arm.



If you don't see a video above, it is probably because you are using google reader, and for some reason the video doesn't appear there (even though YouTube is owned by Google). If this pertains to you, click the title link or the "read more" link and it will bring you to the TKSink blogspot page.

(For fullscreen fun, hit the fullscreen button, which is to the right of the volume button.)

More Strasburg folklore from Y!

A SI article on Strasburg is about to drop, and here is an interview with the guy who wrote the article. UPDATE 5/9: Here is the SI article on Strasburg.

UPDATE 4/27: CTB notes that Strasburg is clicking along: 9-0 1.54 ERA.

UPDATE 5/9: Strasburg throws a 17K no hitter and Boras gets drool on his chin.

2009 Spring Training: Wieters hitting .471

Look. I know these games don't mean much. Still, it is fun to look through the spring training stats and pretend that they provide clues for what the future will bring. So let's agree to suspend our disbelief for a bit and enjoy this post for what it is.

Matt Wieters has 8 hits in 17 at bats, includng a home run (1 BB, 0 K).

Guess who leads the league in strikeouts? Chris Davis, with 11 in 22 at bats. He's batting .182 so far. On the plus side, he also has six walks. If you were thinking of drafting Davis for a points league that gives negative points for strikeouts, the early returns indicate that his strikeouts are going to be a problem.

Matt Murton has two (2!) stolen bases. Before you think he might suddenly morph into David Wright, you should know that he's also been caught two times. Still, the steals are interesting for a guy who has only attempted 11 steals in 900 career major league at bats (he was successful in 8 of his 11 attempts).

It always makes me feel better about a power/speed guy when I see both phases of his game are working in spring training. Which is why I feel good about Corey Hart, who has two home runs and three stolen bases so far, and Matt Kemp, who has three stolen bases and one home run.

Ryan Freel: 5 SB, 0 CS.

Adam Jones: 4 SB, 0 CS.

Pablo "Little Money" Sandoval has 9 hits in 22 at bats, including 2 HR (2 BB, 3 K). He also had a 14-pitch at bat that Carlos Villanueva called "ridiculous." He's had zero innings at catcher, and for those of you in leagues where Sandoval isn't yet catcher eligible, it is unclear if Sandoval will get the starts he needs this year (he needs five in Sandbox) in order to gain catcher eligibility.

Coco Crisp has 7 BB and 2 K so far this spring.

H2H Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Get Some S.A.C. (SB, AVG, and CL)

• A 2010 H2H Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: C.R.A.S.S

H2H leagues, in theory, allow you to try unusual draft strategies. In practice, I find myself reluctant to be too crazy in a money league. My heart says yes, but my head says no. Perhaps both your heart and head like to take risks. If so, you might want to give this strategy a try.

We already went over a pitching heavy strategy that I dubbed PHAC. This time around let's run a stolen base, batting average, and closer strategy up the flagpole and see how it flies. The goal is to win Saves, ERA, WHIP, SB, and AVG each week. To make the strategy more effective, it also helps to target guys who score a lot of runs. But first, a disclaimer.

Disclaimer: Before we delve into this deeper, I need to stress how crazy you'd have to be to try extreme strategies like this at home. You are essentially putting all your eggs in one strategy basket, going for broke, and so if you get a bit unlucky, it is unlikely you will be able to win a majority of the categories on a weekly basis. Even if your strategy works, an unbalanced team can have unlucky weeks and lose 8-2 or 9-1, whereas a more balanced team might suffer the occasional 4-5 and 3-6 loss on unlucky weeks but would rarely suffer a more lopsided loss. To pull this stunt, it also helps if you are in a daily league, as you can better tweak your lineup to protect your ratios (batting average, ERA, and WHIP) throughout the week.

Now. Let's say you have the 8th pick. You're in a regular 5x5, 12-team, H2H roto-style (not points) league, and the pitching slots are SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P. The weekly innings minimum is 12. The hitters are using the default Yahoo! settings (no corner or middle infielders).

Your goal is to target speed, but only if that speed is accompanied with a high batting average. You also want to get as many topline closers as possible. And at the end of the draft, you need two solid relievers with SP/RP eligibility (note: click here for notes on every single RP/SP eligible pitcher in Y! for 2009). You will not draft a single SP. The team you assemble should win you five of the ten categories each week, including ERA, which is the tiebreaker category in Y! leagues. In order to hedge your risk a bit more, I'd target high-average steals guys who also score a lot of runs.

Remember, your draft won't always look pretty, but with a little luck, it should get the job done. Your draft might look something like this:

1.Pick #8 Matt Holliday (.321 AVG, 28 SB, 107 R)
2.Pick #17 Dustin Pedroia (.326 AVG, 20 SB, 118 R) 653 at bats!!
3.Pick #32 Jonathan Pabelbon (ADP = 41)
4.Pick #41 Ichiro (.310 AVG, 43 SB, 103 R) 686 at bats!!
5.Pick #56 Jacoby Ellsbury (.280 AVG, 50 SB, 98 R)
6.Pick #65 Bobby Abreu (.296 AVG, 22 SB, 100 R)
7.Pick #80 Joakim Soria (ADP = 90)
8.Pick #89 Derrek Lee (.291, 8 SB, 93 R)
9.Pick #104 Michael Young (.284 AVG, 10 SB, 102 R)
10.Pick #113 Carlos Marmol (ADP = 111)
11.Pick #128 Kerry Wood (ADP = 123)
12.Pick #137 Matt Capps (ADP = 150)
13.Pick #152 Andre Ethier (.305 AVG, 6 SB, 90 R)
14.Pick #161 Chad Qualls (ADP = 175)
15.Pick #176 Conor Jackson (.300 AVG, 10 SB, 87 R)
16.Pick #185 Joey Devine (ADP = 191)
17.Pick #200 Pablo Sandoval (.345 AVG, 0 SB, 24 R)
18.Pick #209 Hong-Chih Kuo (SP/RP eligibility)
19.Pick #224 Delmon Young (.290 AVG, 14 SB, 80 R)
20.Pick #233 Kaz Matsui (.293 AVG, 20 SB, 58 R)
21.Pick #248 Ryan Theriot (.307 AVG, 22 SB. 85 R)
22.Pick #257 Carlos Villanueva (SP/RP eligibility)

(Note: the players in the above team should be understood as placeholders of sorts, merely to give you a better idea of what this draft strategy might look like if it were to be carried out in the present fantasy baseball market. During your draft, you can always target other pitchers or hitters that you feel are more likely to be available in your league or more likely to perform at a high level during the 2009 season.)

Other hitters you might target:

Nick Markakis (.306 AVG, 10 SB, 106 R)
Juan Pierre (.283 AVG, 40 SB, 44 R)
Brian Roberts (.293, 36 SB, 107 R)
Shane Victorino (.293 AVG, 36 SB, 102 R)
Matt Kemp (.290 AVG, 35 SB, 93 R)
Alex Rios (.291 AVG, 32 SB, 91 R)
Johnny Damon (.303 AVG, 29 SB, 95 R)
Randy Winn (.306 AVG, 25 SB, 84 R)
Fred Lewis (.282 AVG, 21 SB, 81 R)
Coco Crisp (.283 AVG, 20 SB, 55 R)
Denard Span (.294 AVG, 18 SB, 70 R)
Mark DeRosa (.285 AVG, 6 SB, 103 R)
Chipper Jones (.364 AVG, 4 SB, 82 R)
Iwamura (.274 AVG, 8 SB, 91 R)
Skip Schumaker (.302, 8 SB, 87 R)
Placido Polanco (.307 AVG, 7 SB, 90 R)
Jose Lopez (.297 AVG, 6 SB, 80 R)
Shin-Soo Choo (.309 AVG, 4 SB, 68 R)
Ryan Ludwick (.299 AVG, 4 SB, 104 R)
Kevin Youkilis (.312 AVG, 3 SB, 91 R)
Joe Mauer (.328 AVG, 1 SB, 98 R)
Milton Bradley (.321 AVG, 5 SB, 78 R)
Mike Aviles (.291 AVG, 8 SB, 68 R)
Kelly Johnson (.287 AVG, 11 SB, 86 R)
David DeJesus (.307 AVG, 11 SB, 70 R)
Howie Kendrick (.306 AVG, 11 SB, 43 R)
Shin-Soo Choo (.309 AVG, 4 SB, 68 R)

This strategy can work even better if you are in a holds league (Kuo and Villanueva will be getting Holds from the SP slot). It works less well when using Quality Starts instead of Wins (if you are using Wins, your relievers might get lucky and take the category a few times). You also keep in mind that targeting high-average players who get a ton of at bats (Ichiro and Pedroia, for example) is a great way to solidify your batting average.

So at the end of this draft you have high-average hitters who score a lot of runs, and most of them can swipe a base. You'd have six closers, and two relief pitchers who also qualify for the SP slot. Your "wall" of relievers should produce a low WHIP and ERA each week. Being in a daily league will allow you to rotate players into your lineup, and so your team should accumulate 30 - 40 innings each week. One drawback of this strategy is that ratios can be a little unpredictable in small sample sizes, so you might get unlucky in any given week. Remember Derek Jeter went 0-32 to start the 2004 season? He ended up hitting .292 that year, but his hitless streak would have really hurt your team for a few weeks.

Anyway. It's a fun strategy, one I've always wanted to use but I've never had the guts to do it. Maybe you do.

If it helps, here is the cheatsheet I used in my actual draft.

Outfield Primer: Either Ethier Rules Or I'm A Cantaloupe

Most players that get passed over in a draft are passed over for a reason. There are millions of reasons to ignore a guy.

Here are a few, off the top of my head: guys that have body parts held together with tissue paper and wood glue (Milton Bradley); guys with depth chart issues (Nick Swisher); guys who hit .209 on the year a few seasons ago (Pat Burrell); guys that might have had a .306 batting average last year but are 38 years old (Brian Giles); guys that have a ton of talent but are really young (Justin Upton); guys that strike out a lot, and so they don't work for your points league (Mark Reynolds); or even guys that have talent but have never had the full time job for a full season before (Shin-Soo Choo).

For this post, I want to concentrate on a guy who is getting ignored for no discernible reason:



Here, let's do one of those Player A, Player B, Player C things. Here are the 2008 stats of three players who played like top 90 players in the 2008 Y! game (otherwise known as a 7th rounder in 12-team mixed league drafts):

Player A: 525 at bats, 90 R, 20 HR, 77 RBI, 6 SB, .305 AVG
Player B: 526 at bats, 69 R, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 7 SB, .297 AVG
Player C: 611 at bats, 86 R, 21 HR, 99 RBI, 1 SB, .286 AVG

Player A is being drafted in the 14th round in 2009
Player B is being drafted in the 10th round in 2009
Player C is being drafted in the 6th round in 2009

Player A is Andre Ethier
Player B is Joey Votto
Player C is Garrett Atkins

My point here is not to beat up on Atkins. I kinda like him. And anyway, he's been getting enough of the overrated talk from other people who like to write about fantasy sports. And my point isn't to say that Votto is being drafted too high. I like Votto and think that he's actually being drafted too low. My point is to show how little respect Andre Either is getting in drafts.

Is there any reason to think Andre Ethier won't at least duplicate what he did last year? (Bill James thinks he will: 532 at bats, 89 R, 19 HR, 79 RBI, 5 SB, .303 AVG.) I understand why Ethier didn't get any love going into last season. For starters, the Pierre/Kemp/Jones/Either logjam in the Dodger outfield was a turnoff. In addition, I think Either was even more overlooked because of all the Matt Kemp hype.

Perhaps his solid season in 2008 is being overlooked because of all the Manny Ramirez hoopla. I don't know. But there is a lot to like going into this season: he will probably get more at bats, and he will probably bat third, one spot in front of Manny Ramirez; he has no health concerns; he's been hitting home runs in spring training, for whatever that's worth; and he's not too young, not too old (26 years old).

Look. Even depth chart nemesis Juan Pierre, who recently was given permission from the Dodgers to explore trade options, concedes that Ethier can play.

Plus, to beat his 2009 ADP, Either just needs to hit somewhere in this range: 79 R, 19 HR, 64 RBI, 4 SB .280 AVG (JD Drew's stats from last year).

While you're thinking this over, you can peruse the following list of outfielders ranked 101 - 252:



Dissenting Opinion:

Razzball writes that Ethier is not good for power or speed, and then calls him "Andre Neithier." Then again, he did draft Ethier to be part of his "best 2009 fantasy baseball draft."

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

Could Roy Halladay Give You A 1,083% Return On Your Draft Investment?

Let's set the ground rules: These rankings were generated using the normal five pitching categories, save one big exception: I used Quality Starts instead of Wins. The idea behind this genius move was to eliminate some of the quasi-randomness of the Win category so that you can better focus on quality of pitching.

Oh, and one more note: these ranks work for H2H or regular Roto-style play only (and not points). I'm currently in the middle of a H2H points-style Sandbox draft right now, and the player values in that league are completely different (mostly because of the +1 point for walks and -1 point for strikeouts; it also appears that high-end starting pitching is more valuable than hitting, as points are given for outs and complete games). Example: Matt Kemp, who is probably a top 40 player in the Y! roto-style games, finished out of the top 200 in the Sandbox-style points game last year (he strikes out a lot and doesn't walk much).

Okay, I'll shoot a few bullet points at you first, and then show you the ranking list second so that you can see what I'm talking about. Why in reverse? Because that way you'll think I'm smart, and then after you see the list you'll think to yourself, "oh, he just used the list to make his points. He's not smart at all." But for those precious seven seconds after you've read the bullet points but before you've read the list, you will think that I'm smart.

Comments on the top 150 SPs in the Y! game in 2008:

Lots of good deals to be had among the top 150 starting pitchers.

For example, if Halladay repeats his 2008 stats, he'll provide more return on your draft investment than any other player in the majors. Is that a green halo over his head? (Pictured above.)

If you believe Nolasco can come close to duplicating his stats from 2008, you should jump on him because he'll give you great value relative to his draft position.

Other guys people don't seem to trust (and, in some cases, with reason): Harden, Ervin Santana, Duchescherer, Dempster, Lowe, and Saunders.

Wainwright and Lester are going a little ahead of their 2008 value, so unless you think they will get a bit better in 2009, you probably don't want to draft them.

Kuo sneaks in with his dual RP/SP eligibility.

Baker and Danks are flying a little under the radar.

Surprisingly, Shields has been getting respect. People are drafting him as if he'll duplicate his 2008 stats.



Comments on the SPs ranked 151-252 in the Y! game in 2008:

Greinke had good months and bad months. More people seem to believe in the good months.

Slowey had only one start in April.

Lots of volatility here, as evidenced by all the undrafteds. I'd guess that half the guys on the 151-252 list aren't on it next year.

No pitchers that are being drafted on the list below are a particularly good deal...

...except maybe Morrow and Joba, who should move up the rankings when they pitch more innings, get more quality starts, and increase their K totals.



Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

Picking on RPs, a Primer: Who The Heck Is Steven Shell?

-Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves.

-Uh, what are you doing?

-I'm repeating the phrase "don't pay for saves" over and over again so that it becomes even more cliched and, a result, even more of a statement of truth.

-Oh. But you will pay something for saves, right?

-Probably.

-So why not use a more accurate phrase, like "don't use high draft picks on closers." Or, "if you are going to draft saves, spend wisely." Or maybe, "it is usually possible to get a solid closer in the later rounds, so try to limit the amount of closers you take in the first ten rounds." Or something.

-Don't try to trick me with your semantics! Those phrases are not as catchy and, as a result, are probably less of a statement of truth.

[End scene]

Okay. So don't break your bank on closers (unless your league settings make lots-o-closers a worthwhile strategy). I get it. As someone who has had Todd Jones repeatedly and single-handedly kill my team's chances of winning weekly H2H games, I don't quite believe in the concept, but at the very least I understand the idea. Maybe these people who hate closers are simply just picking the wrong closers. Tangentially, I must say I dislike having to rely on being super-quick on the waiver wire to round out my stable of closers. I'm one of the fastest guys in my league when it comes to waiver wire pickups. Certainly top three. But I swear, sometimes it feels like closers only get hurt during the two minute window each day I'm away from my computer. I don't know what the right answer is, but I tend to get a closer in the 9th-11th rounds, and then one or two more in the 15th-21st rounds.

Anyway. Let's start by looking at the relievers that finished in the top 150 of the Y! game in 2008:



(Note: to avoid having the semi-randomness of the Win category skew the RP rankings, I opted to use Quality Starts instead of Wins. The other four categories are standard: SV, K, ERA, WHIP.)

So it would appear that the repetition of the phrase "don't pay for saves" that you hear throughout the fantasy baseball universe is really working: average mock drafters are rarely paying for saves. Soria, who performed like a third rounder last year, is being drafted midway through the seventh round. His saves might be worth paying for. But Soria plays for the Royals. Who cares who Soria plays for? He played for the Royals last year and ended up being the 36th best player in the Y! game.

Who else? Maybe Kerry Wood, who would give you sixth round value on your tenth round pick if he were to repeat his '08 stats. But Kerry Wood loves to hang out on the DL. True. But if you think he can stay healthy, he should give you a nice return on your investment.

Then you have the "rising closer" class: Marmol, Qualls, and Devine only had 17 saves combined, and yet all three were ranked in the top 25 in 2008 even without high save totals. And so now that they probably will be getting more save opportunities in 2009, you have to feel good about their chances of outperforming their 2009 ADP.

A few setup men might also be a nice return on investment. If Balfour, Kuo, Arredondo, Howell, or Thornton can repeat their 2008 numbers in 2009, they will be cheap to draft and will certainly help your fantasy team. Remember that these rankings use Wins instead of Quality Starts, so if you are in a league with Wins, the value of these setup men increases even more.

The other other thing I'll say about the top 150 RPs is that seeing this list makes me want to avoid Bobby Jenks and B.J. Ryan, and I'm not all that keen on K-Rod, Papelbon, or Capps, either.

Here are the rest of the RPs in the top 252:



This list has two more rising closers in Francisco and Bell. Please also note that Brian Wilson, poster boy for the "closers only help you in one category" believers, is currently being drafted 50 picks ahead of his 2008 value. (By the way, FB Junk works to dispell the closer-as-one-cat. myth in this post.) Unless you believe that Wilson will improve on his 2008 numbers in 2009, he might be someone to avoid.

And one last thing: Who the shell is Steven Shell? Answer: "Shell, a former Angels prospect, has been quite a find since signing a minor league deal with Washington. He had a 1.96 ERA in 41 1/3 innings out of the pen in 2008, and the stuff is there for him to be a quality setup man going forward." However, he doesn't get much love from The Prognosticators: 4.98 ERA, 1.45 WHIP.

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

Kelly Shoppach has a bad case of position scarcity.

Position scarcity. When talking about catchers, the phrase position scarcity frequently gets tossed about. Sounds like some sort of medical condition, doesn't it?

Person #1: You look a lot better. How are you feeling?

Person #2: Thanks. I feel better. The medication I'm on has really helped to contain my position scarcity.

Person #1: Is your position scarcity itchy?

Person #2: Oh my god yes. Especially in the armpits of my knees.

At this point, you are probably wondering, what the heck was that? And, can a knee have an armpit? And, if knees did have armpits, wouldn't they be called kneepits? Almost every catcher is a pretty bad deal. But you have to draft one. So the idea here is to limit the damage as much as possible. If each catcher were to repeat his 2008 stats in 2009, the catcher who would be the least damaging to fantasy teams is Kelly Shoppach:



So let's pretend that we are confident that Shoppach can at least match his numbers from last season if he gets the playing time. The logical next question is, how much will that Shoppach dude play this year?

The answer? To be determined. Victor Martinez looks like he's back and healthy (he hit two home runs in a recent spring training game), and you have to believe the Indians will give Travis Hafner every chance to claim the DH role. So that leaves Shoppach fighting with Ryan Garko for playing time. The Indians' manager claims Shoppach will play "a little more than he did last year," and if that is the case Shoppach would be a great guy to have as your fantasy catcher. Last year, Shoppach had 62 at bats in the first two months of the season combined, and then 69, 66, 93, and 60 at bats in the following four months. The Prognosticators project Shoppach to average about 60 at bats per month this year (360 total) and hit between 17 and 19 home runs for the season.

Conclusion: Hard to say what sort of playing time Shoppach will get but there is a decent chance he's worth his current 19th round draft pick.

Other reading on the syllabus:

"A healthy Martinez at first base improves the team on both offense (fewer AB's for Garko, more for Shoppach) and defense (Shoppach is above average behind the dish)."

"Shoppach turned in the best season of his career in 2008 because Victor Martinez was injured. Martinez is healthy again, and there is much anticipation as to how Wedge is going split playing time between the two. Martinez, of course, plays first base as well. The two guys who seem least worried about the situation are Shoppach and Martinez."

"Indians manager Eric Wedge has made it clear that Shoppach will catch '08 Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and Martinez will handle No. 2 starter Fausto Carmona...'It's fair to say that Shop's going to get more playing time, but we also know that Victor's going to be playing every day somewhere,' Wedge said. 'Victor's still our catcher, but we feel like we've got another one in Kelly Shoppach, too. Part of it's going to be the other guys we have on the ballclub, Ryan Garko, how much Hafner DHs.' Wedge said the Tribe brass has told Martinez and Shoppach 'we're not sure how this is going to play out.'

"But if the Indians decide they are a better team with Shoppach behind the plate and Martinez at first, Martinez is all for it."

Asked Wednesday how he'll divvy up playing time between Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Kelly Shoppach and Ryan Garko, manager Eric Wedge said that "Victor and Hafner are going to play every day and Shoppach will play a little more than he did last year."

Razzball has Shoppach in the second tier of his catcher rankings.

March 25th Update: Shoppach is batting .263/.310/.605 in 38 at-bats this spring.

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

Will Jhonny Peralta Remember to Drink His Standard-Issue Year-27 Magic Potion?

If all of the top ten shortstops from 2008 were to put up the same exact stats in 2009, Jhonny Peralta would be the only one of the ten to outplay his 2009 Average Draft Position (ADP). (Although, as I discussed earlier, one could argue that Alexei Ramirez will “tie” his ADP.)

Little Jhonny had a good year in 2008. But it wasn’t an out-and-out where-the-heck-did-that-come-from year. He stats were mostly in line with his ’05-’08 four-year average. See for yourself:

Jhonny Peralta’s four-year (2005 – 2008) average:
89 R, 20 HR, 77 RBI, 2 SB, .274 AVG.

Jhonny Peralta’s 2008 campaign:
104 R, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 3 SB, .276 AVG.

The slight (or, more accurately, minorly sizeable) uptick in R and RBI can be attributed to the fact that the injuredness / poor play of Pronk and V-Mart meant that Peralta was frequently batting in the cleanup spot. I don’t know where he’ll hit in the 2009 order, but in his first spring training game he hit third. It should also be mentioned that if you decide it is okay to throw out the stats from Peralta’s stinker 2006 season, Peralta’s 2008 season looks even more legit. Just for kicks, let’s look at Peralta’s average stats from 2005 – 2008, throwing out his 2006 season:
91 R, 23 HR, 80 RBI, 2 SB, .279 AVG.

As the list below shows, Peralta is currently being drafted about 40 picks below his 2008 value:



So what sort of stats does he need to get in 2009 in order to be worth his 2009 ADP?

Well, J.J. Hardy was the 126th ranked player in the Y! game last year with these stats:
78 R, 24 HR, 74 RBI, 2 SB, .283 AVG.

Conclusion: As long as Peralta plays somewhat close to his average stats from the last four years, he’ll be better than his 2009 ADP. And that’s saying something because as you can see from all the red in the above list, there are very few shortstops who are capable of outplaying their ADP. More optimistically, if Peralta remembers to drink his standard-issue year-27 magic potion and plays at the top of his ability, he will easily be the best deal among fantasy shortstops. Putting it another way, you can safely draft Peralta as if he were the ninth best SS (and it is unlikely that he isn't at least a top ten SS in 2009), and in doing so you have the chance to make yourself a sweet profit on your initial ADP investment if Peralta happens to once again be the third best SS.

Oh, and as I’ve already mentioned here and here, I’m a sucker for multiple position eligibility, and it looks like Peralta might have some this season, as it is possible he plays some 3B in 2009.

Other Peralta Readables:

A Quick Hit on Peralta over at Rotoprofessor.

Peralta's run totals disproportionately influences his value.

Indians Insider: Jhonny Peralta says he steered clear of controversial trainer Presinal

Bill James' 2009 projection for Peralta: 97 R, 23 HR, 84 RBI, 3 SB, .274

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.