BJ Ryan will be understanding when he loses the closer role

BJ Ryan has been terrible this spring: six appearances, five innings, six runs, six walks, five strikeouts. But these stats don't matter because it is only spring training, right? Well, maybe not in Ryan's case. His velocity is down around 84 MPH and isn't improving and his manager is starting to freak out and float the idea that Ryan gives up the closer role to the media. Here is what his manager said: "I think (Ryan is) the type of guy, if he feels like he can't help us, he'll just say maybe use someone else," Gaston said Thursday. "He might not say it, but he understands."

He might not say it but he understands? Classic. Anyway, here are a few potential BJ Ryan replacements to keep an eye on until Ryan uses non-verbal communication methods to show that he is ready to graciously step aside:

Jeremy Accardo (pictured) - You might remember him as the guy who saved 30 games for Toronto in 2007. Let me throw some of his 2007 numbers at you: 67 innings, 7.62 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, 2.38 K/BB, 1.11 WHIP. Accardo spent most of 2008 dealing with arm troubles and hanging out with Dr. James Andrews. Bill James projects a 1.23 WHIP for 2009. In other news, Toronto manager Cito Gaston tried Accardo out as a starter this spring, but that plan was abandoned when Accardo got lit up for seven runs in two innings. In 9.1 innings this spring, he's given up nine runs, but of course seven of them came in that one outing early in the spring. He has two walks, four strikeouts, and one save this spring. 3/31 UPDATE: Accardo was just sent to the minors.

Jesse Carlson - Carlson's 2008 stats were very similar to Accardo's 2007 stats: 60 innings, 8.25 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 2.62 K/BB, and a 1.03 WHIP. He also had two saves. Bill James projects Carlson's 2009 WHIP to rise (to 1.27), once Carlson's BABIP normalizes (it was .235 last year, and James projects .312 this year).

Scott Downs - Last year, in 70.2 innings, Downs had 7.26 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 2.11 K/BB, 1.15 WHIP, 5 saves. Bill James projects a 1.30 WHIP.

These three guys might be clones: all have a decent K/9 (over 7), a slightly elevated BB/9 (over 3.0), and a mediocre K/BB. Of these three guys, my gut says Accardo is the best pitcher, but that could just be me remembering his glory days of 2007. He's coming off injury, and the performance of post-injury RPs is difficult to predict. The latest news seems to suggest that Downs would take over as closer in the event that BJ isn't up to snuff.

Jays GM JP Ricciardi is not concerned about BJ Ryan. But remember, this is the same JP Ricciardi that lied through his teeth about BJ two years ago.

3/31 Update: Scott Downs might open the season as the Jays' closer.

Is Jason Motte Leading the STL Closer Battle?

Jason Motte has had an interesting path to the majors: he went from .191 hitting catcher to 96.6 MPH throwing pitcher.

He has reportedly moved in front of Chris Perez in the battle for the closer role.

A Cardinals blogger thinks Motte may get "quite a number" of saves this season.

Motte got a save (albeit meaningless) the other day.

He had an insane 14.85 K/9 in the PCL league last year. Plus, he looks insane when he's pitching. The insanely good / insane looking combo is not bad for a potential closer who isn't even getting drafted in most leagues.

A feeble attempt to provide additional context: Tony LaRussa, Motte's manager, seems to prefer experience in the closer role, and it should also be noted that Motte is only a few bad outings away from starting the season in Triple-A. But did you see that 14.85 K/9 number? Insane!

Audio on Motte from a January 18th, 2009 interview: "We were at a dinner last night for Tony's foundation and he [Tony LaRussa] introduced us [Motte & Chris Perez] and he's like these are the two guys who are probably going out for the closer role."

3/13 UPDATE: "La Russa, who earlier had said veteran Ryan Franklin also was a candidate to close early in the season, reiterated that he thought both Perez and Motte could be closers. 'If one guy emerges, he becomes the closer. If he doesn't, then they all kind of share it,' said La Russa."

Perez got a save on Friday, March 13th but also gave up 2 runs. He's now given up 3 runs in 5 innings this spring. Rotoworld speculates in their news feed that Perez won't start the season as closer. Then again, this is just spring training so maybe we're getting ahead of ourselves here.

3/17/09 Update: "Jason Motte touched 98 mph consistently and struck out the side in the eighth inning of Monday's ballgame, holding fast to a 6-6 tie."

3/20 UPDATE: Chris Perez is shut down for the next several days. So now it's probably down to Motte and Franklin for the closer role. And Kinney. And anyone else LaRussa dreams up. Pitching coach Dave Duncan said this: "Anyone who's been following what's been going on would notice that among those receiving consideration (to close), Motte has been the most impressive. There's a ways to go in camp. But that's where it stands for me."

3/31 Update: It's official! Rotoworld reports that Motte will get at least some of the saves. How many? Who else might get saves? That we don't quite know yet. What we do know is that Chris Perez has been sent to the minors, and so if Motte does end up having to share the role, it will probably be with Franklin and/or Kinney.

4/6 Update: Well, Motte got St. Louis' first save opportunity, thus completing the improbable switch from hitter to pitcher, a move that is otherwise known as the reverse Ankiel. That said, the catcher-turned-closer did blow his first save in spectacular fashion. The silver lining? He was one strike away from escaping from a 1-run save. Hopefully he gets a few more chance before getting pulled. Okay, I'm done updating this post. If Motte does anything worthwhile in the future, it will be noted in a new post. This post is getting unwieldy.

Conclusion: Motte might already be the favorite to close, he costs next to nothing to draft, and he has a brief track record of striking out boatloads of guys. Put that in your craw and ponder it.

Conclusion #2: As Motte slowly begins to get hyped, it is important to keep in mind that his fastball is straight as an arrow and his secondary pitches have room for improvement. What I do I mean by this? Well, not to crash my own Motte, party, but it is possible that major league hitters eventually begin to catch up with Motte. That said, it is also possible that he continues to click along striking out everything in his path. If he does bomb, we can't complain because he was very cheap to draft. My thought? I think he'll be amazing for most of the season and then have a few rough patches after the All-Star break. Pure speculation, of course.

Picking on RPs, a Primer: Who The Heck Is Steven Shell?

-Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves.

-Uh, what are you doing?

-I'm repeating the phrase "don't pay for saves" over and over again so that it becomes even more cliched and, a result, even more of a statement of truth.

-Oh. But you will pay something for saves, right?

-Probably.

-So why not use a more accurate phrase, like "don't use high draft picks on closers." Or, "if you are going to draft saves, spend wisely." Or maybe, "it is usually possible to get a solid closer in the later rounds, so try to limit the amount of closers you take in the first ten rounds." Or something.

-Don't try to trick me with your semantics! Those phrases are not as catchy and, as a result, are probably less of a statement of truth.

[End scene]

Okay. So don't break your bank on closers (unless your league settings make lots-o-closers a worthwhile strategy). I get it. As someone who has had Todd Jones repeatedly and single-handedly kill my team's chances of winning weekly H2H games, I don't quite believe in the concept, but at the very least I understand the idea. Maybe these people who hate closers are simply just picking the wrong closers. Tangentially, I must say I dislike having to rely on being super-quick on the waiver wire to round out my stable of closers. I'm one of the fastest guys in my league when it comes to waiver wire pickups. Certainly top three. But I swear, sometimes it feels like closers only get hurt during the two minute window each day I'm away from my computer. I don't know what the right answer is, but I tend to get a closer in the 9th-11th rounds, and then one or two more in the 15th-21st rounds.

Anyway. Let's start by looking at the relievers that finished in the top 150 of the Y! game in 2008:



(Note: to avoid having the semi-randomness of the Win category skew the RP rankings, I opted to use Quality Starts instead of Wins. The other four categories are standard: SV, K, ERA, WHIP.)

So it would appear that the repetition of the phrase "don't pay for saves" that you hear throughout the fantasy baseball universe is really working: average mock drafters are rarely paying for saves. Soria, who performed like a third rounder last year, is being drafted midway through the seventh round. His saves might be worth paying for. But Soria plays for the Royals. Who cares who Soria plays for? He played for the Royals last year and ended up being the 36th best player in the Y! game.

Who else? Maybe Kerry Wood, who would give you sixth round value on your tenth round pick if he were to repeat his '08 stats. But Kerry Wood loves to hang out on the DL. True. But if you think he can stay healthy, he should give you a nice return on your investment.

Then you have the "rising closer" class: Marmol, Qualls, and Devine only had 17 saves combined, and yet all three were ranked in the top 25 in 2008 even without high save totals. And so now that they probably will be getting more save opportunities in 2009, you have to feel good about their chances of outperforming their 2009 ADP.

A few setup men might also be a nice return on investment. If Balfour, Kuo, Arredondo, Howell, or Thornton can repeat their 2008 numbers in 2009, they will be cheap to draft and will certainly help your fantasy team. Remember that these rankings use Wins instead of Quality Starts, so if you are in a league with Wins, the value of these setup men increases even more.

The other other thing I'll say about the top 150 RPs is that seeing this list makes me want to avoid Bobby Jenks and B.J. Ryan, and I'm not all that keen on K-Rod, Papelbon, or Capps, either.

Here are the rest of the RPs in the top 252:



This list has two more rising closers in Francisco and Bell. Please also note that Brian Wilson, poster boy for the "closers only help you in one category" believers, is currently being drafted 50 picks ahead of his 2008 value. (By the way, FB Junk works to dispell the closer-as-one-cat. myth in this post.) Unless you believe that Wilson will improve on his 2008 numbers in 2009, he might be someone to avoid.

And one last thing: Who the shell is Steven Shell? Answer: "Shell, a former Angels prospect, has been quite a find since signing a minor league deal with Washington. He had a 1.96 ERA in 41 1/3 innings out of the pen in 2008, and the stuff is there for him to be a quality setup man going forward." However, he doesn't get much love from The Prognosticators: 4.98 ERA, 1.45 WHIP.

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