Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Would Derek Jeter Be A Hall Of Famer If He Were To Retire Today?

Let’s apply the LPGA Hall rules to Derek Jeter’s career and see if he’s like Annika and Vijay and has already qualified for the Hall of Fame:

1. He has been an "Active" MLB player for 10 years;
2. Must have won/been awarded at least one of the following - an MVP (0), Cy Young (0), or a World Series MVP (1); and
3. Must have accumulated a total of 27 points, which are awarded as follows - one point for leading a major statistical category (and ½ point for being second), one point for each All Star appearance, one point for each ROY, Gold Glove or AS MVP award won, one point for each career milestone attained (3,000 hits, 300 wins, career .300 hitter, 300 saves, or 3,000K), and five points for each MVP, Cy Young, and WS MVP award won.

Jeter’s stats:
1996: ROY
1999: AL hits leader (2nd in BA and Runs)
2000: All Star MVP, WS MVP
2004: AL Gold Glove
2005: AL Gold Glove (2nd in AL in runs)
2006: AL Gold Glove (2nd in AL in BA, RS)
Career .300 hitter
7-time All Star
4-time WS winner

Jeter has played ten years, he’s won a WS MVP, and he currently has 25.5 points. To gain entry into the HOF (using a format inspired by the LPGA format) he’d need to get 1.5 additional points over the course of his career. And so no, he would not currently be a member of the HOF.

Out of curiosity, I also did the same monkey dance for Randy Johnson, who, if he were to retire today, would probably qualify for the hall of fame with ease. Randy easily hits the 10-year mark (he’s played 17 years), and his five Cy Youngs and one WS MVP breeze him by qualification #2. As for his points:

1 no hitter
1 perfect game
4,544 career K’s
9-time K leader
2002 Wins leader, Triple crown winner
4-time ERA winner
2001 WS MVP
5-time Cy Young
10-time All Star
1-time WS winner
(plus all the times he was second in stat categories)

By my rough tally, this gives him about 59+ points.

Sure, this system has some drawbacks, such as the ample slippery slope-ish wiggle room (should a Rolaids Relief award be a point? Should WS rings count? Should the cut-off be 50 points?) and the fact that the system is hard to weight properly (closers and catchers are undervalued, for example. And should a WS MVP really be valued as much as an MVP?). But perhaps Bill James or someone related to him could figure out a way to eliminate the wiggle and even out the weight. The real test to see if it works is to take a borderline hall of famer and see if he hits the 27 point mark. Got any borderline hall of famers in mind?


Musa D said...

Ron Santo
Alan Trammell
Lou Whitaker
Jack Morris
Dwight Evans
Jim Rice
Bert Blyleven

I bet you could find HOFers who score in the low single digits. Maybe even a 0. My first guess (other than guys who played pre-All Star Game and pre-Gold Glove) would be Rizzuto.

Anson Mountain said...

My favorite player as a child, thanks to TBS and the Braves being the closest team to TN, was Dale Murphy. I went through the stats and I think he gets 26 points (2 MVP's, 7 All-Star Games, 5 Gold Gloves, NL Leader in HR (twice) and RBI's (twice). It depends on what you count as a major statistical category (Runs? Games? Slugging %, Grounding into Double Plays?). If you count any of those, Murph makes it.

Anson Mountain said...

Wait, Murphy came in second in the NL a few times for HR and RBI, so those half points would put him in the HOF running.

DrGravitee said...

Poor Dale. Stuck at sub 20% of the vote when he needs 75%. And yet he was probably the best player in the majors for half a decade. Maybe his squeaky clean non-drinking habits rubbed the Baseball Mafia elite the wrong way. Or maybe he just wasn't quite good enough. Anyway, according to the LPGA rules, he's better than Jeter!

PS. Your GIDP comment reminds me of some of my favorite hitter stats: SB percentage, # pitches per at bat, fewest K's...

Musa D said...

Rizzuto won an MVP Award and was a 5-time All-Star, so he breaks double digits. He led the league in singles once, but I'm not sure what that's worth. He led the league in outs once, too.

Dale Murphy was the best player in the majors for half a decade? Rickey Henderson? Mike Schmidt? Let's not get carried away here.

Anson Mountain said...

No, no. Let's get carried away here. For a half decade, I think Dale Murphy was the best player in the National League, at least. Over 700 consecutive games played, in the top three for hits, runs, HR, and RBIs for the 80's, gold gloves in center field, playing very well on an awful team for a while. Plus he did lots of charity work and was just a good guy. I'm not saying he should definitely be in the HOF, because I think there are lots of guys like him that probably are on the line, but I'm surprised he doesn't get more votes, at least near 50%. Oh well.

DrGravitee said...

Rizzuto, all 5'6" of him, played for 13 years (career interrupted from 43-45 for WWII).

1949 MVP runner up (2.5 points?)
1950 MVP (5 points)
5-time all star (5 points)

So Phil is about a 12.5 guy. If we really wanted to, we could give him some extra points for the following:
4-time league leader in sacrifice hits (4 points?)
3-time league leader in double plays turned and total chances per game (3 points?)
2-time league leader in fielding and putouts, once in assists. (5 points?)
Set record for 238 changes without an error in 1950. (1 point?)

Even if you include all his fielding stats, he still is only about 25.5.

Dale averaged about 38, 115, .295 from 1982 - 1987. Henderson was averaging 15hrs, 60rbi, 125 runs, and 85 sb during that time. Schmidt won the MVP in '80 and '81, but from 82-87 he averaged about 38, 110, .280. In any case, perhaps I was getting carried away, but an argument could be made that Dale had the better years between 1982 and 1987. (Personally, given that Reyes is my favorite player now, and that I loved Vince Coleman when he was in his prime, I'd go with Rickey).

DrGravitee said...

Although Rickey did have FORTY-TWO CS back in 1982. 42/130 for a 76% success rate.

I do believe that Anson has a very strong argument.

Musa D said...

That's it! I'm writing a petition to get Dale Murphy into the LPGA Hall of Fame!