When will Chone play his 5th game at 2B?

I’m in an eight-team Sandbox keeper points league, and in this format Desmond DeChone Figgins, AKA Chone “Shawn” Figgins, doesn’t qualify for 2B. He needed to play 15 games at 2B in 2008 in order to be eligible at 2B in 2009. He played nine games there in 2008. He’s also played at least nine games at 2B in every season of his career.

As a 3B in an eight-team league, Chone, apparently, isn’t all that interesting. We’re currently in the 21st round of a slowlive draft, and Chone has yet to be drafted. If, however, Chone were to qualify as a 2B early in the 2009 season, he’d be considerably more valuable, as the 2B pool is pretty thin. In order to qualify for 2B in this format, he needs to make five appearances at 2B.

So I began to wonder, when did Chone appear in his fifth game at 2B in 2008? Was it one of those things where he played 3B all year and then in late September he played a string of games at 2B? Or was his 2B playing evenly dispersed throughout the 2008 season?

Well, he played his first 2008 game at 2B on April 27th, his second on April 28th, third on April 29th, fourth on April 30th, and fifth on May 1st. That’s pretty early in the season. But perhaps he got a little lucky last year, as Howie Kendrick and Maicer Izturis had injury issues in April of last year.

So when did Chone play his fifth game at second base in 2007? Well, he played his first 2007 game at 2B on May 3rd, his second on May 10th, third on July 8th, fourth on July 15th, and fifth on July 19th. So he gained second base eligibility significantly later in the season in 2007. But it should be noted that he didn’t play his first 2007 game until April 30th, one full month into the season.

So what have we learned? It took Chone 1 month to gain 2B eligibility in 2008, and 2.5 months to gain 2B eligibility in 2007. It should also be noted that on five of the ten dates listed above in which Chone played 2B, Brandon Wood was in the lineup.

Speaking of Brandon Wood, in January, there had been talk of moving Chone to outfield if Brandon Wood impressed in spring training. What has Wood done so far in spring training? 10-for-24 with two HR and two SB. Impressive. But with Bobby Abreu on the team now, it seems less likely that Chone moves to the outfield to give Wood some playing time (unless Abreu becomes a semi-frequent DHer...or maybe Wood plays some DH. Sigh. A lot is still up in the air). To get Wood into the lineup from time to time (as well as 3B role player Robb Quinlan), the Angels might have to slide Chone over to 2B. Another option would be to have Wood play SS and replace the Maicer Izturis / Erick Aybar platoon going on there.

You have to figure that at worst, Chone will have 2B eligibility 2.5 months into the season, which means Chone could be your second baseman for 60% of the season. And if Brandon Wood keeps hitting in spring training, it could happen much sooner than that. It is a little early to be making predictions, but I’d put the over/under at, say, May 25th, 2009.

Angels have "happy dilemma" in infield: "In eight Cactus League games, Wood is hitting .417 with two homers, two doubles, a triple and an .833 slugging percentage. He leads the club with eight RBIs -- but does not have a position with Chone Figgins at third and Maicer Izturis and Erick Aybar sharing shortstop."

For what it’s worth, Chone is 4-for-14 with three SB and one CS so far in spring training.

A Third Base Primer That Strangely Focuses On, Wait For It, Mark DeRosa

Mark DeRosa turned 34 years old two days ago. Happy belated birthday, Mark. For your birthday I am going to give you something that no one else has given you recently: a post all of your own.

Let's get to it: DeRosa was the 9th best third baseman last year. He also qualifies as a 2B in all leagues and he was 5th best at that position in 2008. If you draft him, you want him in your 2B slot.

I know, I know. The fact that I’m talking about DeRosa in what is ostensibly a post about 3B is a little confusing, but I already talked about Alexei in my 2B post (even though I probably should have discussed him as a SS). But remember, this post isn't about doing things in a logical way so as to avoid confusion. This post is about being a birthday present to Mark DeRosa.

DeRosa has really had two separate careers. In his first career, which ran from 1998 to 2005, he was a teen pop idol. No. Wrong wikipedia page. Ah, yes. Here we go: in his first career, he never had more than 309 at bats. When a guy is unable to find a starting gig in the majors for seven years, it usually is a sign that you don’t want him on your fantasy team. But in DeRosa’s second career, which is heading into its fourth season, he has had 520, 502, and 505 at bats and was a 70-80 R, 10-13 HR, 70-80 RBI, 2-4 SB, .290 type guy.

The most popular thing to say about DeRosa right now is that he had a “career year” in 2008. Is this true? The answer, it seems to me, is yes and no. DeRosa had more hits and a better batting average in 2006 and 2007 than in 2008. But when people say “career year” what I think they really mean to say is that in 2008, DeRosa more than doubled the amount of home runs he hit in his previous year. DeRosa had 13 HR in 2006, 10 HR in 2007, and 21 HR in 2008. Incidentally, the second most popular thing to say about DeRosa is that “his power numbers should decline in 2009.” And they might, as DeRosa led the league with nine "lucky" home runs in 2008. So I would argue that DeRosa's entire statistical 2008 season wasn't "career," it was just that his home runs were league-leadingly "lucky."

So that’s the background. Let’s get to the numbers:



As you can see from the list above, DeRosa was the 67th best player in the Y! game last year and is being drafted, on average, 134th this year. So my question is, what sorts of stats does DeRosa need this year in order to be better than his ADP?

Well, the 134th best player in the Y! game in 2008 was Kelly Johnson. Here are his stats:
86 R, 12 HR, 69 RBI, 11 SB, .287 AVG.

Can DeRosa top those numbers? To help answer this question, I will show you DeRosa’s 2008 stats, an average of the stats DeRosa generated over the last three years, and Bill James’ 2009 projection for DeRosa:

DeRosa in 2008:
103 R, 21 HR, 87 RBI, 6 SB, .285 AVG.

Average of DeRosa’s 2006-2008 stats:
81 R, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 3 SB, .291 AVG.

Bill James’ 2009 DeRosa projection:
87 R, 17 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB, .273 AVG.

Conclusion: Some people will read this post and think that DeRosa is STILL going too high in drafts. Others will read it and think that nabbing DeRosa as the 134th pick overall is a great idea, because you are essentially making a low-risk bet that he hits somewhere around his three-year average. And if he happens to hit better than that? Gravy.

Personally, I probably wouldn’t target DeRosa, but knowing the above information will make me feel comfortable picking him up if he slips much more than his 134 ADP (which is in the 11th round of 12-team mixed-league drafts...in my last few 12-team mock drafts, he has gone in the 11th, 12th, 7th, and 13th rounds). I’m only a moderate fan of DeRosa, but I’m a complete sucker for position flexibility, and DeRosa has a lot of that. DeRosa’s 3B/OF flexibility gives daily leaguers the ability to get a few extra counting stats on days when regulars at those positions aren’t playing (assuming your league doesn’t have 162-game position limits). Plus, having a DeRosa makes it easier to figure out a way to get starters in all positions without dropping valuable guys onto the waiver wire when folks on your team start getting injured.

There is very little Mark DeRosa reading out there. The stuff below is the best I could find. If you find something you think is interesting, feel free to post it in the comment section.

As Razzball says, maybe now that he is in Cleveland people will "no longer overrate a player that was underrated."

DeRosa quick to become team leader.

Lou, DeRosa deny recent report of rift.

A Fake Teams piece on Mark DeRosa from back in early October.

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

Is Alexei Ramirez worth his ADP if he duplicates his 2008 stats?

There are countless ways to determine the value of a player in fantasy baseball, but a common and relatively unscientific method is to glance at a players’ stats and then rely on gut in deciding if that player is going to improve, regress, or simply maintain his current rate of production.

For example, it seems many owners think Alexei Ramirez—who hit .290 with 65 R, 21 HR, 77 RBI, and 13 SB in only 480 at bats in 2008—will improve in 2009, which explains why he is currently being drafted in the fourth round of Yahoo (Y!) mock drafts. While participating in a recent mock draft, I witnessed an owner bragging about getting Alexei with the 54th overall pick. “Getting Alexei here with this pick is amazing value. He’s gonna mash this year,” the proud owner wrote. “At worst, he’ll duplicate his stats from last year, which would easily make him a top 50 pick.”

Which got me thinking. If Alexei were to duplicate his stats from last year, would he be a top fifty pick? Turns out, the answer is no. Alexei was the 114th-best player in the Y! last year, which puts his value somewhere in the middle of the ninth round.

Part of the reason his value was suppressed in the end-of-year 2008 Y! rankings was his 480-at-bat total limited his potential in the counting stats (R, RBI, HR, SB). So what if we were to extrapolate his stats for a 580-at-bat season? How would this change his value?

Your wish is my command:

Alexei Ramirez’s 2008 stats extrapolated out for 580-at-bat season:
79 R, 25 HR, 93 RBI, 16 SB, and a .290 AVG.

The player closest to having these same stats in 2008 was Vlad Guerrero:
85 R, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 5 SB, and a .303 AVG.

Vlad was the 56th-best player in the game in 2008. If Alexei were to duplicate a extrapolated version of his 2008 stats in 2009, he would be almost exactly worth his 50th-overall draft value. No more, no less.

This list should help give you a better sense of which second basemen might outperform their 2009 Average Draft Position (ADP):



(Note: my explanation of this list is a little convoluted, but hopefully it makes sense.)

Other required Alexei Ramirez reading:

Bill James projects Alexei to hit .289 with 88 R, 24 HR, 97 RBI, and 14 SB.

Turns out FB Junk also played around with this same data: Who is Really Under/Over Valued?

Razzball likes Alexei better than that likeable wood gnome, Dustin Pedroia.

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.