Juan Pierre: King of Contact%

96 players stole at least 10 bases last year. That means that in a twelve-team league, it would be possible for each team to have 8 hitters steal over 10 bases. That sounds like a lot of players.

But how many of those steals are "clean;" how many of those stolen base threats have a decent chance of scoring runs and hitting for average? Nobody wants 10+ steals if they are attached to a part-time player who struggles to hit over .260 (yes, I'm talking about you, Bonifacio).

Well, here are the players who had a contact%* of over 83% in 2009:
*Total percentage of contact when swinging at all pitches.
93.2% Juan Pierre (1.00)**
93.0% Dustin Pedroia (1.64)
90.4% Robinson Cano (.48)
89.9% Denard Span (.79)
89.6% Todd Helton (1.22)
89.6% Martin Prado (.61)
89.0% Erick Aybar (.56)
88.7% Ichiro Suzuki (.45)
88.7% Shane Victorino (.85)
88.5% James Loney (1.03)
88.4% Jacoby Ellsbury (.66)
88.0% A.J. Pierzynski (.46)
87.8% Brett Gardner (.65)
87.3% Elvis Andrus (.52)
87.0% Yadier Molina (1.28)
86.9% Ryan Theriot (.55)
86.2% Julio Borbon (.54)
85.2% Asdrubal Cabrera (.49)
85.0% Nyger Morgan (.54)
84.2% Chris Coghlan (.69)
83.9% Alcides Escobar (.22)
**Eye (also known as Batting Eye), which is defined as walks divided by strikeouts, is in parenthesis. This metric is considered by some to be a good measure of a player's strike zone judgment. The very best MLB hitters have batting eye ratios over 1.00. Eye ratios of less than 0.50 are indicative of a free-swinging approach to hitting and poor strike-zone judgment. Players with eye ratios of .70 or better have a greater probability of maintaining a high batting average than players with eye ratios of .50 or less.

Here are some players that didn't break 83% contact% in 2009:
82.7% Andrew McCutchen
81.9% Everth Cabrera (.52)
80.6% Michael Young
80.2% Rajai Davis
79.4% Franklin Gutierrez
79.4% Howie Kendrick
79.3% Dexter Fowler
78.9% Michael Bourn
77.5% Matt Wieters
77.4% Carlos Gonzalez
76.0% Drew Stubbs

(I know that not all the players listed will steal 10+ bases, but I included them for one reason or another.)

All of this makes me feel pretty good about the hitters on the top list. That is, until I saw that Nate McLouth had a contact% of 84.1% in 2009 and batted .256 on the season.

Links:

• Contact% on Fangraphs
• Juan Pierre reported to camp early
• ESPN's closer chart
  

2010 Y! Default Ranks: The Highs and Lows (Relative to MDC)

Yahoo's default rankings are pretty excited about a few players:
Ranked higher on Y! (ADP on Mock Draft Central / Y! default rank):

• Denard Span (MDC 127 / Y! 63)
• Julio Borbon (MDC 185/ Y! 113)
• Andrew McCutchen (MDC 90 / Y! 60)
• Michael Young (MDC 96 / Y! 64)
• Asdrubal Cabrera (MDC 151 / Y! 106)
• Chris Coghlan (MDC 225 / Y! 102)
• Adrian Beltre (MDC 196 / Y! 159)
• Wandy Rodriquez (MDC 115 / Y! 75)
• Scott Baker (MDC 154 / Y! 98)
• Stephen Strasburg (MDC 264 / Y! 200)
  

On the flip slide, there are a few players that Yahoo's default rankings seem to dislike and/or forget.

Ranked higher on MDC (ADP on Mock Draft Central / Y! default rank):

• Carlos Gonzalez (MDC 121 / Y! 128)
• Gordon Beckham (MDC 94 / Y! 136)
• Chris Davis (MDC 160 / Y! 301)
• Evereth Cabrera (MDC 228 / Y! 270)
• Juan Pierre (MDC 213 / Y! 280)
• Martin Prado (MDC 235 / Y! 294)
• Alcides Escobar (MDC 244 / Y! 335)
• Jake Fox (MDC 344 / Y! 1042)
• Trevor Hoffman (MDC 164 / Y! 255)
• Kerry Wood (MDC 222 / Y! 338)
• Matt Capps (MDC 212 / Y! 393)
• Brandon Morrow (MDC 363 / Y! 484)
• Brad Lidge (MDC 217 / Y! 487)
• Jon Lester (MDC 59 / Y! 78)
• Scott Kazmir (MDC 174 / Y! 222)
• David Price (MDC 171 / Y! 237)
• Max Scherzer (MDC 145 / Y! 263)
• Clay Buchholz (MDC 192 / Y! 290)
• Joba Chamberlain (MDC 197 / Y! 316)
• Francisco Liriano (MDC 220 / Y! 979)
• Chien-Ming Wang (MDC 420 / Y! 1049)

Feel free to post any other outliers that I missed in the comment section.

Links:

• Fangraphs makes some similar-but-different observations
• FJunk makes some similar-but-different observations
• Razzball makes some similar-but-different observations
  
• Stephen Strasburg in NYTimes: Nationals’ Strasburg Resumes Work of Living Up to Expectations

MLB: 2010 Projected Lead-Off Hitters

Runs have, apparently, the highest correlation with fantasy baseball hitting success. So, if you believe that players who bat early in the line up get more at bats, and if you believe that more at bats leads to increased run production, then you might be interested to know who is going to be the leadoff hitter for each major league baseball team. I do not have this information, but what I do have is a list of 2010 lead-off hitter guesses / projections (I sometimes added Mock Draft Central ADP, the draft position in a recent Y! mock draft, and ESPN's projected Runs, Steals, and Batting Average):

Cubs: Ryan Theriot (81r, 21sb, .285avg)
Reds: Drew Stubbs (69r)
Hou: Michael Bourn (79r)
Brewers: Rickie Weeks (86r)
Pirates: Andrew McCutchen (100r)
STL: Skip Schumaker (78r)
ATL: Nate McLouth (95r)
Florida: Chris Coghlan (19th MDC, 10th Y!; 96r, 16sb, .292)
NYM: Jose Reyes (93r)
PHI: Jimmy Rollins (101r)
Nats: Nyjer Morgan (78r)
ARZ: Stephen Drew (10th MDC, 15th Y!; 87r, 8sb, .289)
COL: Carlos Gonzalez (81r, 11sb, .283)
LAD: Rafael Furcal (92r)
SDP: Everth Cabrera (20th MDC; 72r, 33sb, .263avg)
SFG: Aaron Rowand (64r)
BAL: Brian Roberts (101r)
BOS: Jacoby Ellsbury (92r)
NYY: Derek Jeter (103r)
Rays: Jason Bartlett (72r)
TOR: Jose Bautista (45r)
White Sox: Juan Pierre (62r)
Cleve: Grady Sizemore (97r)
DET: Austin Jackson (52r)
KC: Scott Podsednik (44r)
MN: Denard Span (12th MDC, 7th Y!; 92r, 21sb, .304avg)
LAA: Erick Aybar (72r)
OAK: Rajai Davis (62r)
SEA: Ichiro (91r)
TEX: Borbon (17th MDC, 11th Y!; 80, 38, .281)

The list of lead-off hitters available after the first ten rounds of mock drafts who are projected to bat over .280, steal 10+ bases, and score more than 80 runs is small:

• Carlos Gonzalez (11th MDC, 10th Y!; 81r, 11sb, .283)
• Chris Coghlan (19th MDC, 10th Y!; 96r, 16sb, .292)
• Julio Borbon (17th MDC, 11th Y!; 80, 38, .281)
• Ryan Theriot (22nd MDC, 19th Y!; 81r, 21sb, .285avg)

Quick Links:

• 2010 Major League Baseball Project lineups
• Chris Coghlan, fantasy bust?
• Thirty players had more than 600 at bats last year, including Theriot, Rollins, Ichiro, Jeter, Ellsbury, Furcal, and Bourn.
• Orlando Cabrera had the third-most at bats in MLB last year and went 83r, 13sb, .284avg
  

Ben Wallace; armpits

Fantasy Sports:

If you play in a H2H (Head-to-head) nine-category fantasy basketball league (FG, FT, PTS, 3PTM, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TO), you might like Ben Wallace.

Under what circumstances would you ever want a guy who can't score more than 5 points a game or make more than half of his free throws? Well, if your team already stinks at FT and PTS, you'd want Ben Wallace

If you filter the NBA player rankings for seven categories, omitting FT and PTS, Ben Wallace is ranked 4th in the entire NBA.

Life:

I want to find a way to stop my armpits from sweating while I'm at work. Armpit sweat is an affliction--a quiet affliction--that doesn't garner the same attention as pimples or hair loss, but it is arguably more devastating. Pimples and hair loss don't stain your favorite button-down.

I heard a rumor that there is this prescription strength anti-perspirant that you put on once a month. You coat your armpits with this stuff that is the consistency of cake batter, you let it dry and then your sweating issues are solved for thirty days.

For anyone who has had to tolerate the chill of a corporate air conditioning unit on their damp armpits for eight hours a day, armpit cake batter sounds like a delicious solution.

15 Fantasy Football Facts for 2009

Pierre Thomas only had more than 16 carries one time in 2008. Even though I drive his nickname (PT Cruiser), I'm not sure I'm willing to use a top 30 pick on him.
Readables: PT is ranked 20th overall here and 28th here. Oh, and here is an ESPN article asking if PT is an RB1.

Ronnie Brown scored 40% of his touchdowns in one game last year. He had sixteen or fewer carries in 13 of 16 games last year. He had 3 100-yard games last year.

Felix Jones has never had more than 10 touches in an NFL game.

Chris Johnson (9) rushed for more touchdowns than Matt Forte (8) in 2008.

Based on no evidence, I fear that DeAngelo Williams (18 TD) might be the Braylon Edwards of 2009 (Braylon went from 16 TD in 2007 to 3 TD in 2008). It will cost you a 12th overall pick to find out.

Slaton caught 50 passes last year.

Kevin Smith had over 20 carries in 6 of his last 8 games in 2008. He scored in four of them.

Ray Rice carried the ball more than 11 times twice last year. He scored zero TDs for the year.

DeSean Jackson went for 62-912-2TD last year. That's better than I thought, especially when you consider he'll probably pop off a return TD or two and maybe a rushing TD.

I like my WRs to be consistent. Lance Moore caught at least 5 passes in 10 of 16 games last year. Housh did it 9 times. TOwens did it 9 times. DeSean did it 8 times. DMason did it 9 times. DBess did it 5 of his last 6 games. BMarshall did it in 12 of 15 games. Royal did it in 11 of 15 games.

Kevin Walter only caught at least 5 passes in four of his 2008 games. AGonz did it 4 times. VJax did it 6 times.

I'm on the fence about Antonio Bryant. He is either a dominant WR (9 catches, 200 yards, 2 TDs in Week 14 last year) or an overrated 2009 bust.

I like my quarterbacks to be consistent. Aaron Rodgers threw or rushed for at least two touchdowns in 11 of 16 games in 2008. Drew Brees also did it 11 times. Peyton Manning did it 9 times. Matt Ryan did it 5 times. Romo did it 8 times (in only 12 games). Schaub did it 7 times (in only 11 games). Philip Rivers did it 12 times, but I refuse to draft him because I don't like him personally. (I've never met him, naturally.) So because of this silly stat I will probably draft Rodgers (ADP = 36) or Romo (ADP = 58) or Schaub (ADP = 72).

Last year I was burned by my lust for rookie RB McFadden. So I've instituted a new rule: no rookies before the 80th pick, and no rookie WRs unless they went to University of Florida. That rules out Moreno (53), Wells (71), Donald Brown (77), Crabtree (Texas Tech). McCoy (81) conveniently is an option. As is Harvin (97) and Green (118). I'm going to throw in Mendenhall (99), who missed so much time last year he is rookie-ish.

If you think I forgot about rookie RB Coffee (199), I didn't. He was ruled out because of what I call the Coco Crisp Theorem: if you've got a fun name, you'll always be overvalued. Milton Bradley is another baseball version of this rule. Is it safe to say Chad Ocho Cinco is the biggest football offender?

You owe it to yourself to read up on Bess

A few months ago, my wife said she would only let me pick up Florida 2B Emilio Bonifacio for the fantasy baseball team we were co-managing if I let her buy a dog.

Since the All Star break Bonifacio has hit .244 with two stolen bases and has been caught stealing twice. The dog, on the other hand, has been quite a hit. The dog, which we named Golden Mucho, has changed my life. More on that later.

Soon after nabbing Bonifacio, our fantasy team began to tank. I was distraught. To relieve my stress, I joined a local cycling team. Some members of the team, sensing my immense reservoir of talent, convinced me to race. During my third race, I was caught up in a crash and hyperextended two fingers and broke my clavicle. Surgery was required on my clavicle. While some folks do the Giro d'Italia a few weeks after clavicle surgery, I was placed on the fantasy 60-day disabled list. My doctor banned me from typing. I feared my season might be over. And so fans everywhere began to wonder, could The Sinkhole pull out victory with a team managed only by a wife who cared more about using fantasy sports as leverage to buy pets?

The short answer is no. My fantasy season this year mirrored that of the real-life Mets. The Sinkhole fantasy baseball team is currently in 11th place in a league with twelve teams. Not that my wife didn't try. She recognized that the league favored starting pitching and traded BJ Upton for Johan Santana, but both players have been mediocre since the trade. She tried to sell Matt Wieters to the highest bidder, but no one was interested, even though this is a keeper league. Anyway. We suck.

But now, football season is here. And my wife has agreed to co-manage again. I am insisting that we draft Devone Bess. She is insisting that Golden Mucho needs a friend. G. Mucho is, she says, lonely. The other day, when I came home from work, I found him on the couch, pawing through a month-old issue of US Weekly. The TV was on, and was tuned to Top Chef marathon. He was the most bored-looking dog I'd ever seen.

When I was out with my broken clavicle, Golden Mucho nursed me back to health. He dutifully carried bags of ice to me. He helped me pull my shirt over my head. When I was finally well enough to leave the apartment, he made sure that nobody bumped my tender shoulder. I owe Golden Mucho a friend.

You owe it to yourself to read up on Bess:

A luke-warm Bess article.

A hotter Bess article.

Hottest: Bess, PPR Here.

I Care That Matt Kemp Is Batting 8th

"Earlier this season, Torre said he didn't have to talk to Casey Blake about batting 8th because he was a veteran who knew how to hit there. Torre thinks the same of Matt Kemp, who batted eighth four times recently. "Matt Kemp doesn't care where he hits," Torre said, adding that if he sensed it would be a problem he would talk with the player first. With Kemp, it wasn't a problem at all."

- True Blue LA

Does it count if I care? Put aside all that baseball BS (power at the bottom of the order, putting a good hitter who can get hits even with the pitcher batting behind him, blah blah blah) and consider that Torre is giving the best hitter on the Dodgers one fewer at bat per game...on purpose.

Suggested Reading:

Is Matt Kemp the most underrated player in baseball? Gleeman makes his case!

Leftovers, Fever Pitch & Johnny Damon

My wife is off on a business trip and so I am alone for a night for the first time in months, maybe years. My goal was to read a textbook about software requirements for work, but I watched Fever Pitch on network television and ate a dinner of leftovers (rice, beans, and two chicken fingers) and a bowl of cereal (Special K with chocolate bits in it) instead.

The movie made me feel...sad. And not just because I'm a Yankees fan. And not just because I was home alone eating a hodgepodge dinner and watching network television. The content of the movie made me feel sad, especially the parts that were attempting to make me feel uplifted. Like Johnny Damon's grand slam, for example.

Let me explain: I miss being able to root against Johnny Damon and his caveman look. Back when he was with the Sox, I rooted against him as a player while simultaneously respecting his caveman look. I miss that complicated love/hate relationship. His caveman look was, well, pretty freaking awesome.

End, nostalgia.

Maybe Matt Wieters can fill the emptiness in my heart.

When do we start taking Barry Zito seriously?

Nine years ago, I liked a certain young starting pitcher so much that I incorporated his last name into the name of my fantasy baseball team. That pitcher? Barry Zito. I kept the name for four years, and during those four years Zito had won-loss records of 7-4, 17-8, 23-5, and 14-12. After that the name got a little stale, and so I switched it up to something else. About that same time, Zito began to struggle. Well, maybe not struggle, but he certainly wasn't that same dominating pitcher that he used to be. His WHIP rose from a low of 1.13 in 2002 all the way to a high watermark of 1.60 in 2008.

Guys who go 23-5 usually get taken seriously, but Zito hasn't been taken seriously for years. Maybe now that he has racked up three four straight quality starts, it is time to start taking him seriously. Maybe now that he has found a soulmate in catcher Pablo Sandoval, we should start taking him seriously.

I'm going to go to bed now (I have to wake up in four hours to pick up some pitchers to stream), but later I'll try to post some actual analysis about Zito in an attempt to see if he can be a sub 1.30 WHIP pitcher this year.

Oh, and the name of my fantasy team? Zito Burrito. Kinda fun, kinda dumb. Good night.

Readables:

Everything you could ever want to know about Zito's last start.

A quick glance at FanGraphs shows that Zito's 2009 LOB% (75.8%) isn't much over his career average (73.2%). His 2009 BABIP is actually higher (.284) than has career average (.273). His 2009 K/9 (6.11) is actually slightly below his career average (6.70), but his 2009 BB/9 (3.06) ties his best ever (he also had a BB/9 of 3.06 in his 22-5 2002 season, as this graph shows). One change that jumps out is that 27% of his pitches thrown were curveballs in 2002, but now he's only throwing his curve 13% of the time. For some reason, after the 2005 season he abruptly stopped throwing his curveball as much. The only difference I can glean from these charts is that he seems to be throwing a tick faster this year. So what does it all mean? Well he's walking fewer batters and giving up fewer home runs. If he can keep that up, he should be able to continue to be a sub 1.30 WHIP pitcher. I have not idea how true it is, but I like to believe that as long as Sandoval is behind the plate, Zito will continue his resurgence.

Just to summarize in a less blocky paragraph: after Zito pitches, check the boxscore for walks and HRs. If he's continues to give up fewer than 1 HR every other start and 2 walks per start, you should believe in all things Zito. If his HR or BB creep over those thresholds, be wary. Is that too subtle? Then just check back on these graphs (using the BB/9 and HR/9 tabs).

An old Zito Q&A from back in the day.

Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Someone is streaming on me

I do not like it when someone streams on me. It doesn't make me feel good. In order to stop the streamer from streaming on me, I am aggressively fighting to neuter the streamer through a little trick I call anti-streaming. Here's how:

First, some context:

In my Yahoo! league, the owner who is playing me this week dropped the three worst players on his roster on Sunday night (our weekly games start on Monday) and picked up the three best free agent starting pitchers who were scheduled to pitch on Monday. (In my Yahoo! league, you can't pick a player up and play him the same day; you can only play him starting the following day.) All three pitched well, and I suddenly found myself down in Quality Starts and Ks.

Now, the strategy (sort of):

To counteract the streamer, I dropped the three worst players on my roster on Monday morning (I woke up earlier than the streaming owner) and picked up the two best free agent starting pitchers who were scheduled to pitch on Tuesday, as well as a starting pitcher who was scheduled to pitch on Wednesday. The following morning (Tuesday morning), I again woke up before the streaming owner and dropped all three pitchers and picked up two pitchers that were scheduled to pitch on Wednesday, as well as one starting pitcher who was scheduled to pitch on Thursday.

You see, picking up one pitcher who is scheduled to start in two days allowed me to hold him for one night and drop him, thus relegating him to the waiver wire for three days and preventing the streamer from being able to start him against me. (In Yahoo! leagues, if you pick someone up and drop him right away he goes straight to being a free agent. If, however, you hold him overnight, the default settings put that player on waivers for three days.) The idea is to thin out the free agent pool a bit, as forcing the streamer to start increasingly marginal players will help you win ERA and WHIP when one of his SPs inevitably implodes (much like Bronson Arroyo and Mike Hampton did in the first inning of their starts today).

As for the other two pitchers I picked up that pitched the following day, sometimes I started them and sometimes I didn't. The idea was to protect my ratios, while simultaneously hanging with the streamer in the K and QS categories. For example, today I started Ubaldo Jimenez. The reason I could do this safely was because I had such a huge lead in the ratios. So you have to play it by feel.

To review:

My league settings require me to wake up earlier than my opponenent to pick up the best three starting pitchers off the wire each day for a week.

Streaming is insanely stupid and I am insanely tired because I've been waking up early to get players off the wire for the last four mornings.

Just know that you don't HAVE to start the semi-crappy pitchers you pick up when trying to counteract a streamer. Only start a streaming SP when your ratios are safe and you need the Ks and QS (or Wins).

And if the SPs on the wire are particularly bad for a given day, move on to the next day and snag those SPs. You are trying to keep up with the streamer when it comes to quantity, but you want to try to do whatever you can to also maintain some quality to your pitching.

I realize not every owner can just drop three players. As it happens I had a number of injuries (Josh Hamilton, Brandon Morrow, Hong-Chih Kuo) that gave me some sudden roster flexibility.

To conclude:

Thankfully, there is only one owner in my twelve-team league that is streaming. Otherwise I'd be tired all the time. Okay, I gotta sleep. I have my alarm set for two hours from now. Good night.

Related Reading:

Yahoo!'s Behrens talks about streaming a day in advance. All you need is two empty roster spots and the MLB probable pitchers for two days in advance.