2010 H2H Fantasy Baseball Strategy: C.R.A.S.S (CL, R, AVG, SB, SP)

"Certain speedsters are not getting proper respect this year. Borbon, Pierre, Rajai Davis, Everth Cabrera, and Elvis Andrus are all projected to swipe 40+ bags and score 80+ runs, but they're going in the 13th round or later."

- RotoAuthority

Given the multitude of Stolen Base / Runs hitters that are available after round 13 or so, one (head-to-head) strategy is to draft as many high-quality pitchers as possible in the early rounds before scooping up the hitters like the ones mentioned above in the later rounds.

Now, before you thank me for being a genius, please let me tell you why this plan is foolhardy:

• If you punt saves, you can also "unpunt" them through smart/fast waiver wire pickups. If you punt HR/RBI, you will never be able to unpunt them. In other words, there is no hedging your bets with this strategy. Either you are in, or, as Heidi would say, you are out.
• During that moment when a player on your team hits a HR, your team instantly is rewarded in four categories: R, RBI, HR, and AVG. Why would you draft a bunch of guys who can't hit HRs?
• Pitchers are, supposedly, "riskier" because they get injured more frequently
• Andrus might hit 8th; Borbon can't hit lefties and might lose his lead-off spot to Kinsler; RDavis could lose at bats and/or see his AVG dip; ECabrera might not lead off; etc., etc., etc. In sum, picking hitters late means you are more likely to have to deal with loss of playing time, demotion to lower in the lineup, demotion to minors, and regression of skills.
  

Here is why I'm going to use this strategy anyway:

• I did the boring old "best player available" last year and got my clock cleaned. My team was terrible. So I decided I'd rather do something oddball and fun than predictable and unfun.
• People love power. So if you want it, you'll need to pay for it. On the other hand, powerless players can come at a huge discount. Most people view the Juan Pierre's of the world as one-trick ponies. I'd argue that with 600+ lead-off at bats, they can become three-trick ponies (R/AVG/SB).
• With all the decent SB options available late, this is the perfect year to give it a try.
• The league I'm in has daily lineup changes, three SP slots, four P slots, four OF, and five bench slots. Winning teams in this league usually have one or even zero bench hitters; almost every inch of bench space is used to rotate in pitchers. This C.R.A.S.S strategy won't work for all league settings.
  

A few reminders:

• Focus less on the stolen bases and focus more on the Runs and the Batting Average; a team of speed guys will certainly lock that category down, but if you can't win Runs and AVG most weeks, your team won't be successful. To this end, you probably want to lock down a dependable Dustin Pedroia Run/Avg guy early in the draft.
• Try to get five closers so that you can guarantee winning that category each week.
• Did I mention that you should shoot for a team filled with leadoff-type hitters? You want your team to make up for its inability to hit a home run by getting more at bats.
• You can't afford to draft a single player who is AVG challenged.

Here is what an example team might look like (plus ESPN Projections):

• OF: Ichiro 29sb. 91r, .307 (#1 hitter)
• OF RDavis 37sb, 62r, .279 (#1 hitter)
• OF Borbon 38sb, 80r, .281 (#1 hitter)
• OF Morgan 40sb, 78r, .276 (#1 hitter)
• 1B Helton 0sb, 75r, .309 (#3 hitter)
• 2B Dustin 17sb, 110, .305 (#2 hitter)
• 3B Prado 2sb, 62, .300 (#2 hitter)
• SS Aybar 25sb, 72r, .303 (#1 hitter)
• C Yadier 12sb, 42r, .301 (#6 hitter)
• UTL Pierre 40sb, 62r, .287 (#1 hitter)
• SP Lincecum
• SP Halladay
• SP Lester
• RP JonP (39sv, 1.17whip)
• RP THoff (32sv, 1.13whip)
• P FrankFrank (31sv, 1.20whip)
• P Wandy
• BN Hamels
• BN Nolasco
• BN Josh Johnson
• BN Lyon (24sv, 1.28whip)
• BN Downs (9sv, 1.30whip)

Other Options:

• Alt: Wieters 0sb, 78r, .303 (#5 hitter)
• Alt: Polanco 5sb, 91r, .306 (#2 hitter)
• Alt: Frasor (17sv, 1.26whip)
• Alt: Wood (29sv, 1.28whip)
• Alt: Capps (24sv, 1.33whip)
• Alt: MGozo (29sv, 1.35whip)
• Alt: Dotel (22sv, 1.36whip)
• Alt: Nunez (23sv, 1.34whip)
• Alt: Jenks (31sv, 1.27whip)
• Alt: MMontero (0sb, 66r, .286)
• Alt: Howie 10sb, 73r, .313 (#2/7 hitter)
• Alt: Kemp 30sb, 96r, .307 (#2 hitter)
• Alt: Loney 5sb, 69r, .302)

Example Draft (12-team mixed league):

1. Lincecum
2. Dustin
3. Roy Halladay
4. Ichiro
5. Lester
6. Josh Johnson
7. Jon Pbon
8. Hamels
9. Nolasco
10. Borbon
11. Wandy
12. Morgon
13. RDavis
14. Hoffman
15. FrankFrank
16. Prado
17. Yadier
18. Pierre
19. Aybar
20. Helton
21. Lyon / Dotel
22. TOR CL (Downs or Frasor or Other)

Don't like this team? Pick and choose your own team:

• 1.Pick #2 Lincecum, HamRam, Albert
• 2.Pick #23 Pedroia, Halladay, Ellsbury
• 3.Pick #26 Pedroia, Halladay, Ellsbury, Zack G.
• 4.Pick #47 Votto, Sandoval, Cliff Lee
• 5.Pick #50 Ichiro, Wainwright, Lester, Vazquez
• 6.Pick #71 Papelbon, JJohnson, Carpenter
• 7.Pick #74 Chone, Bourn, Choo
• 8.Pick #95 Hamels, McCutchen, THanson
• 9.Pick #98 Gallardo, Nolasco, Ubaldo, MYoung, Wieters, Bartlett
• 10.Pick #119 Span, Wandy, Borbon
• 11.Pick #122 Garza, Shields
• 12.Pick #143 RMartin, NMorgan, RDavis
• 13.Pick #146 SBaker, RSoriano, Asdrubal, GSoto
• 14.Pick #167 EAndrus, Neftali, DPrice
• 15.Pick #170 FFrancisco, BAnderson
• 16.Pick #191 Capps, EAybar, Loney
• 17.Pick #194 Wood
• 18.Pick #215 Helton, RHarden, Pierre
• 19.Pick #218 Yadier, Kuroda
• 20.Pick #239 Everth Cabrera, A. Escobar
• 21.Pick #242 Liriano, DFowler

(Note: the players in the above team should be understood as placeholders of sorts, merely to give you a better idea of what this draft strategy might look like if it were to be carried out in the present fantasy baseball market. During your draft, you can always target other pitchers or hitters that you feel are more likely to be available in your league or more likely to perform at a high level during the 2010 season.)

Links:

• H2H Fantasy Baseball Strategy: The Pitching Heavy and the Average Challenged (PHAC)
• H2H Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Get Some S.A.C. (SB, AVG, and CL)
• Players that can hit for AVG
• Projected lead-off hitters
• 2010 Sleepers: Julio Borbon
• Head-to-head: Unorthodox Draft Strategies
  

Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Someone is streaming on me

I do not like it when someone streams on me. It doesn't make me feel good. In order to stop the streamer from streaming on me, I am aggressively fighting to neuter the streamer through a little trick I call anti-streaming. Here's how:

First, some context:

In my Yahoo! league, the owner who is playing me this week dropped the three worst players on his roster on Sunday night (our weekly games start on Monday) and picked up the three best free agent starting pitchers who were scheduled to pitch on Monday. (In my Yahoo! league, you can't pick a player up and play him the same day; you can only play him starting the following day.) All three pitched well, and I suddenly found myself down in Quality Starts and Ks.

Now, the strategy (sort of):

To counteract the streamer, I dropped the three worst players on my roster on Monday morning (I woke up earlier than the streaming owner) and picked up the two best free agent starting pitchers who were scheduled to pitch on Tuesday, as well as a starting pitcher who was scheduled to pitch on Wednesday. The following morning (Tuesday morning), I again woke up before the streaming owner and dropped all three pitchers and picked up two pitchers that were scheduled to pitch on Wednesday, as well as one starting pitcher who was scheduled to pitch on Thursday.

You see, picking up one pitcher who is scheduled to start in two days allowed me to hold him for one night and drop him, thus relegating him to the waiver wire for three days and preventing the streamer from being able to start him against me. (In Yahoo! leagues, if you pick someone up and drop him right away he goes straight to being a free agent. If, however, you hold him overnight, the default settings put that player on waivers for three days.) The idea is to thin out the free agent pool a bit, as forcing the streamer to start increasingly marginal players will help you win ERA and WHIP when one of his SPs inevitably implodes (much like Bronson Arroyo and Mike Hampton did in the first inning of their starts today).

As for the other two pitchers I picked up that pitched the following day, sometimes I started them and sometimes I didn't. The idea was to protect my ratios, while simultaneously hanging with the streamer in the K and QS categories. For example, today I started Ubaldo Jimenez. The reason I could do this safely was because I had such a huge lead in the ratios. So you have to play it by feel.

To review:

My league settings require me to wake up earlier than my opponenent to pick up the best three starting pitchers off the wire each day for a week.

Streaming is insanely stupid and I am insanely tired because I've been waking up early to get players off the wire for the last four mornings.

Just know that you don't HAVE to start the semi-crappy pitchers you pick up when trying to counteract a streamer. Only start a streaming SP when your ratios are safe and you need the Ks and QS (or Wins).

And if the SPs on the wire are particularly bad for a given day, move on to the next day and snag those SPs. You are trying to keep up with the streamer when it comes to quantity, but you want to try to do whatever you can to also maintain some quality to your pitching.

I realize not every owner can just drop three players. As it happens I had a number of injuries (Josh Hamilton, Brandon Morrow, Hong-Chih Kuo) that gave me some sudden roster flexibility.

To conclude:

Thankfully, there is only one owner in my twelve-team league that is streaming. Otherwise I'd be tired all the time. Okay, I gotta sleep. I have my alarm set for two hours from now. Good night.

Related Reading:

Yahoo!'s Behrens talks about streaming a day in advance. All you need is two empty roster spots and the MLB probable pitchers for two days in advance.