Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft Strategies

Anyone out there doing a fantasy baseball auction draft for the first time?  Nervous?  Here is some literature that might help you formulate a strategy:

• Auction draft strategy from ESPN 
• Auction draft strategy from Razzball
• Auction draft strategy from FFToolbox
• Matthew Berry on auction drafts 
• CBS auction draft strategy
• Yahoo's auction draft strategies
• A treatise on auction drafts from Baseball Notebook
• Fantasy Baseball Hub auction draft strategies

2010 H2H Fantasy Baseball Strategy: C.R.A.S.S (CL, R, AVG, SB, SP)

"Certain speedsters are not getting proper respect this year. Borbon, Pierre, Rajai Davis, Everth Cabrera, and Elvis Andrus are all projected to swipe 40+ bags and score 80+ runs, but they're going in the 13th round or later."

- RotoAuthority

Given the multitude of Stolen Base / Runs hitters that are available after round 13 or so, one (head-to-head) strategy is to draft as many high-quality pitchers as possible in the early rounds before scooping up the hitters like the ones mentioned above in the later rounds.

Now, before you thank me for being a genius, please let me tell you why this plan is foolhardy:

• If you punt saves, you can also "unpunt" them through smart/fast waiver wire pickups. If you punt HR/RBI, you will never be able to unpunt them. In other words, there is no hedging your bets with this strategy. Either you are in, or, as Heidi would say, you are out.
• During that moment when a player on your team hits a HR, your team instantly is rewarded in four categories: R, RBI, HR, and AVG. Why would you draft a bunch of guys who can't hit HRs?
• Pitchers are, supposedly, "riskier" because they get injured more frequently
• Andrus might hit 8th; Borbon can't hit lefties and might lose his lead-off spot to Kinsler; RDavis could lose at bats and/or see his AVG dip; ECabrera might not lead off; etc., etc., etc. In sum, picking hitters late means you are more likely to have to deal with loss of playing time, demotion to lower in the lineup, demotion to minors, and regression of skills.
  

Here is why I'm going to use this strategy anyway:

• I did the boring old "best player available" last year and got my clock cleaned. My team was terrible. So I decided I'd rather do something oddball and fun than predictable and unfun.
• People love power. So if you want it, you'll need to pay for it. On the other hand, powerless players can come at a huge discount. Most people view the Juan Pierre's of the world as one-trick ponies. I'd argue that with 600+ lead-off at bats, they can become three-trick ponies (R/AVG/SB).
• With all the decent SB options available late, this is the perfect year to give it a try.
• The league I'm in has daily lineup changes, three SP slots, four P slots, four OF, and five bench slots. Winning teams in this league usually have one or even zero bench hitters; almost every inch of bench space is used to rotate in pitchers. This C.R.A.S.S strategy won't work for all league settings.
  

A few reminders:

• Focus less on the stolen bases and focus more on the Runs and the Batting Average; a team of speed guys will certainly lock that category down, but if you can't win Runs and AVG most weeks, your team won't be successful. To this end, you probably want to lock down a dependable Dustin Pedroia Run/Avg guy early in the draft.
• Try to get five closers so that you can guarantee winning that category each week.
• Did I mention that you should shoot for a team filled with leadoff-type hitters? You want your team to make up for its inability to hit a home run by getting more at bats.
• You can't afford to draft a single player who is AVG challenged.

Here is what an example team might look like (plus ESPN Projections):

• OF: Ichiro 29sb. 91r, .307 (#1 hitter)
• OF RDavis 37sb, 62r, .279 (#1 hitter)
• OF Borbon 38sb, 80r, .281 (#1 hitter)
• OF Morgan 40sb, 78r, .276 (#1 hitter)
• 1B Helton 0sb, 75r, .309 (#3 hitter)
• 2B Dustin 17sb, 110, .305 (#2 hitter)
• 3B Prado 2sb, 62, .300 (#2 hitter)
• SS Aybar 25sb, 72r, .303 (#1 hitter)
• C Yadier 12sb, 42r, .301 (#6 hitter)
• UTL Pierre 40sb, 62r, .287 (#1 hitter)
• SP Lincecum
• SP Halladay
• SP Lester
• RP JonP (39sv, 1.17whip)
• RP THoff (32sv, 1.13whip)
• P FrankFrank (31sv, 1.20whip)
• P Wandy
• BN Hamels
• BN Nolasco
• BN Josh Johnson
• BN Lyon (24sv, 1.28whip)
• BN Downs (9sv, 1.30whip)

Other Options:

• Alt: Wieters 0sb, 78r, .303 (#5 hitter)
• Alt: Polanco 5sb, 91r, .306 (#2 hitter)
• Alt: Frasor (17sv, 1.26whip)
• Alt: Wood (29sv, 1.28whip)
• Alt: Capps (24sv, 1.33whip)
• Alt: MGozo (29sv, 1.35whip)
• Alt: Dotel (22sv, 1.36whip)
• Alt: Nunez (23sv, 1.34whip)
• Alt: Jenks (31sv, 1.27whip)
• Alt: MMontero (0sb, 66r, .286)
• Alt: Howie 10sb, 73r, .313 (#2/7 hitter)
• Alt: Kemp 30sb, 96r, .307 (#2 hitter)
• Alt: Loney 5sb, 69r, .302)

Example Draft (12-team mixed league):

1. Lincecum
2. Dustin
3. Roy Halladay
4. Ichiro
5. Lester
6. Josh Johnson
7. Jon Pbon
8. Hamels
9. Nolasco
10. Borbon
11. Wandy
12. Morgon
13. RDavis
14. Hoffman
15. FrankFrank
16. Prado
17. Yadier
18. Pierre
19. Aybar
20. Helton
21. Lyon / Dotel
22. TOR CL (Downs or Frasor or Other)

Don't like this team? Pick and choose your own team:

• 1.Pick #2 Lincecum, HamRam, Albert
• 2.Pick #23 Pedroia, Halladay, Ellsbury
• 3.Pick #26 Pedroia, Halladay, Ellsbury, Zack G.
• 4.Pick #47 Votto, Sandoval, Cliff Lee
• 5.Pick #50 Ichiro, Wainwright, Lester, Vazquez
• 6.Pick #71 Papelbon, JJohnson, Carpenter
• 7.Pick #74 Chone, Bourn, Choo
• 8.Pick #95 Hamels, McCutchen, THanson
• 9.Pick #98 Gallardo, Nolasco, Ubaldo, MYoung, Wieters, Bartlett
• 10.Pick #119 Span, Wandy, Borbon
• 11.Pick #122 Garza, Shields
• 12.Pick #143 RMartin, NMorgan, RDavis
• 13.Pick #146 SBaker, RSoriano, Asdrubal, GSoto
• 14.Pick #167 EAndrus, Neftali, DPrice
• 15.Pick #170 FFrancisco, BAnderson
• 16.Pick #191 Capps, EAybar, Loney
• 17.Pick #194 Wood
• 18.Pick #215 Helton, RHarden, Pierre
• 19.Pick #218 Yadier, Kuroda
• 20.Pick #239 Everth Cabrera, A. Escobar
• 21.Pick #242 Liriano, DFowler

(Note: the players in the above team should be understood as placeholders of sorts, merely to give you a better idea of what this draft strategy might look like if it were to be carried out in the present fantasy baseball market. During your draft, you can always target other pitchers or hitters that you feel are more likely to be available in your league or more likely to perform at a high level during the 2010 season.)

Links:

• H2H Fantasy Baseball Strategy: The Pitching Heavy and the Average Challenged (PHAC)
• H2H Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Get Some S.A.C. (SB, AVG, and CL)
• Players that can hit for AVG
• Projected lead-off hitters
• 2010 Sleepers: Julio Borbon
• Head-to-head: Unorthodox Draft Strategies
  

Juan Pierre: King of Contact%

96 players stole at least 10 bases last year. That means that in a twelve-team league, it would be possible for each team to have 8 hitters steal over 10 bases. That sounds like a lot of players.

But how many of those steals are "clean;" how many of those stolen base threats have a decent chance of scoring runs and hitting for average? Nobody wants 10+ steals if they are attached to a part-time player who struggles to hit over .260 (yes, I'm talking about you, Bonifacio).

Well, here are the players who had a contact%* of over 83% in 2009:
*Total percentage of contact when swinging at all pitches.
93.2% Juan Pierre (1.00)**
93.0% Dustin Pedroia (1.64)
90.4% Robinson Cano (.48)
89.9% Denard Span (.79)
89.6% Todd Helton (1.22)
89.6% Martin Prado (.61)
89.0% Erick Aybar (.56)
88.7% Ichiro Suzuki (.45)
88.7% Shane Victorino (.85)
88.5% James Loney (1.03)
88.4% Jacoby Ellsbury (.66)
88.0% A.J. Pierzynski (.46)
87.8% Brett Gardner (.65)
87.3% Elvis Andrus (.52)
87.0% Yadier Molina (1.28)
86.9% Ryan Theriot (.55)
86.2% Julio Borbon (.54)
85.2% Asdrubal Cabrera (.49)
85.0% Nyger Morgan (.54)
84.2% Chris Coghlan (.69)
83.9% Alcides Escobar (.22)
**Eye (also known as Batting Eye), which is defined as walks divided by strikeouts, is in parenthesis. This metric is considered by some to be a good measure of a player's strike zone judgment. The very best MLB hitters have batting eye ratios over 1.00. Eye ratios of less than 0.50 are indicative of a free-swinging approach to hitting and poor strike-zone judgment. Players with eye ratios of .70 or better have a greater probability of maintaining a high batting average than players with eye ratios of .50 or less.

Here are some players that didn't break 83% contact% in 2009:
82.7% Andrew McCutchen
81.9% Everth Cabrera (.52)
80.6% Michael Young
80.2% Rajai Davis
79.4% Franklin Gutierrez
79.4% Howie Kendrick
79.3% Dexter Fowler
78.9% Michael Bourn
77.5% Matt Wieters
77.4% Carlos Gonzalez
76.0% Drew Stubbs

(I know that not all the players listed will steal 10+ bases, but I included them for one reason or another.)

All of this makes me feel pretty good about the hitters on the top list. That is, until I saw that Nate McLouth had a contact% of 84.1% in 2009 and batted .256 on the season.

Links:

• Contact% on Fangraphs
• Juan Pierre reported to camp early
• ESPN's closer chart
  

2010 Y! Default Ranks: The Highs and Lows (Relative to MDC)

Yahoo's default rankings are pretty excited about a few players:
Ranked higher on Y! (ADP on Mock Draft Central / Y! default rank):

• Denard Span (MDC 127 / Y! 63)
• Julio Borbon (MDC 185/ Y! 113)
• Andrew McCutchen (MDC 90 / Y! 60)
• Michael Young (MDC 96 / Y! 64)
• Asdrubal Cabrera (MDC 151 / Y! 106)
• Chris Coghlan (MDC 225 / Y! 102)
• Adrian Beltre (MDC 196 / Y! 159)
• Wandy Rodriquez (MDC 115 / Y! 75)
• Scott Baker (MDC 154 / Y! 98)
• Stephen Strasburg (MDC 264 / Y! 200)
  

On the flip slide, there are a few players that Yahoo's default rankings seem to dislike and/or forget.

Ranked higher on MDC (ADP on Mock Draft Central / Y! default rank):

• Carlos Gonzalez (MDC 121 / Y! 128)
• Gordon Beckham (MDC 94 / Y! 136)
• Chris Davis (MDC 160 / Y! 301)
• Evereth Cabrera (MDC 228 / Y! 270)
• Juan Pierre (MDC 213 / Y! 280)
• Martin Prado (MDC 235 / Y! 294)
• Alcides Escobar (MDC 244 / Y! 335)
• Jake Fox (MDC 344 / Y! 1042)
• Trevor Hoffman (MDC 164 / Y! 255)
• Kerry Wood (MDC 222 / Y! 338)
• Matt Capps (MDC 212 / Y! 393)
• Brandon Morrow (MDC 363 / Y! 484)
• Brad Lidge (MDC 217 / Y! 487)
• Jon Lester (MDC 59 / Y! 78)
• Scott Kazmir (MDC 174 / Y! 222)
• David Price (MDC 171 / Y! 237)
• Max Scherzer (MDC 145 / Y! 263)
• Clay Buchholz (MDC 192 / Y! 290)
• Joba Chamberlain (MDC 197 / Y! 316)
• Francisco Liriano (MDC 220 / Y! 979)
• Chien-Ming Wang (MDC 420 / Y! 1049)

Feel free to post any other outliers that I missed in the comment section.

Links:

• Fangraphs makes some similar-but-different observations
• FJunk makes some similar-but-different observations
• Razzball makes some similar-but-different observations
  
• Stephen Strasburg in NYTimes: Nationals’ Strasburg Resumes Work of Living Up to Expectations

MLB: 2010 Projected Lead-Off Hitters

Runs have, apparently, the highest correlation with fantasy baseball hitting success. So, if you believe that players who bat early in the line up get more at bats, and if you believe that more at bats leads to increased run production, then you might be interested to know who is going to be the leadoff hitter for each major league baseball team. I do not have this information, but what I do have is a list of 2010 lead-off hitter guesses / projections (I sometimes added Mock Draft Central ADP, the draft position in a recent Y! mock draft, and ESPN's projected Runs, Steals, and Batting Average):

Cubs: Ryan Theriot (81r, 21sb, .285avg)
Reds: Drew Stubbs (69r)
Hou: Michael Bourn (79r)
Brewers: Rickie Weeks (86r)
Pirates: Andrew McCutchen (100r)
STL: Skip Schumaker (78r)
ATL: Nate McLouth (95r)
Florida: Chris Coghlan (19th MDC, 10th Y!; 96r, 16sb, .292)
NYM: Jose Reyes (93r)
PHI: Jimmy Rollins (101r)
Nats: Nyjer Morgan (78r)
ARZ: Stephen Drew (10th MDC, 15th Y!; 87r, 8sb, .289)
COL: Carlos Gonzalez (81r, 11sb, .283)
LAD: Rafael Furcal (92r)
SDP: Everth Cabrera (20th MDC; 72r, 33sb, .263avg)
SFG: Aaron Rowand (64r)
BAL: Brian Roberts (101r)
BOS: Jacoby Ellsbury (92r)
NYY: Derek Jeter (103r)
Rays: Jason Bartlett (72r)
TOR: Jose Bautista (45r)
White Sox: Juan Pierre (62r)
Cleve: Grady Sizemore (97r)
DET: Austin Jackson (52r)
KC: Scott Podsednik (44r)
MN: Denard Span (12th MDC, 7th Y!; 92r, 21sb, .304avg)
LAA: Erick Aybar (72r)
OAK: Rajai Davis (62r)
SEA: Ichiro (91r)
TEX: Borbon (17th MDC, 11th Y!; 80, 38, .281)

The list of lead-off hitters available after the first ten rounds of mock drafts who are projected to bat over .280, steal 10+ bases, and score more than 80 runs is small:

• Carlos Gonzalez (11th MDC, 10th Y!; 81r, 11sb, .283)
• Chris Coghlan (19th MDC, 10th Y!; 96r, 16sb, .292)
• Julio Borbon (17th MDC, 11th Y!; 80, 38, .281)
• Ryan Theriot (22nd MDC, 19th Y!; 81r, 21sb, .285avg)

Quick Links:

• 2010 Major League Baseball Project lineups
• Chris Coghlan, fantasy bust?
• Thirty players had more than 600 at bats last year, including Theriot, Rollins, Ichiro, Jeter, Ellsbury, Furcal, and Bourn.
• Orlando Cabrera had the third-most at bats in MLB last year and went 83r, 13sb, .284avg
  

Ben Wallace; armpits

Fantasy Sports:

If you play in a H2H (Head-to-head) nine-category fantasy basketball league (FG, FT, PTS, 3PTM, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TO), you might like Ben Wallace.

Under what circumstances would you ever want a guy who can't score more than 5 points a game or make more than half of his free throws? Well, if your team already stinks at FT and PTS, you'd want Ben Wallace

If you filter the NBA player rankings for seven categories, omitting FT and PTS, Ben Wallace is ranked 4th in the entire NBA.

Life:

I want to find a way to stop my armpits from sweating while I'm at work. Armpit sweat is an affliction--a quiet affliction--that doesn't garner the same attention as pimples or hair loss, but it is arguably more devastating. Pimples and hair loss don't stain your favorite button-down.

I heard a rumor that there is this prescription strength anti-perspirant that you put on once a month. You coat your armpits with this stuff that is the consistency of cake batter, you let it dry and then your sweating issues are solved for thirty days.

For anyone who has had to tolerate the chill of a corporate air conditioning unit on their damp armpits for eight hours a day, armpit cake batter sounds like a delicious solution.

15 Fantasy Football Facts for 2009

Pierre Thomas only had more than 16 carries one time in 2008. Even though I drive his nickname (PT Cruiser), I'm not sure I'm willing to use a top 30 pick on him.
Readables: PT is ranked 20th overall here and 28th here. Oh, and here is an ESPN article asking if PT is an RB1.

Ronnie Brown scored 40% of his touchdowns in one game last year. He had sixteen or fewer carries in 13 of 16 games last year. He had 3 100-yard games last year.

Felix Jones has never had more than 10 touches in an NFL game.

Chris Johnson (9) rushed for more touchdowns than Matt Forte (8) in 2008.

Based on no evidence, I fear that DeAngelo Williams (18 TD) might be the Braylon Edwards of 2009 (Braylon went from 16 TD in 2007 to 3 TD in 2008). It will cost you a 12th overall pick to find out.

Slaton caught 50 passes last year.

Kevin Smith had over 20 carries in 6 of his last 8 games in 2008. He scored in four of them.

Ray Rice carried the ball more than 11 times twice last year. He scored zero TDs for the year.

DeSean Jackson went for 62-912-2TD last year. That's better than I thought, especially when you consider he'll probably pop off a return TD or two and maybe a rushing TD.

I like my WRs to be consistent. Lance Moore caught at least 5 passes in 10 of 16 games last year. Housh did it 9 times. TOwens did it 9 times. DeSean did it 8 times. DMason did it 9 times. DBess did it 5 of his last 6 games. BMarshall did it in 12 of 15 games. Royal did it in 11 of 15 games.

Kevin Walter only caught at least 5 passes in four of his 2008 games. AGonz did it 4 times. VJax did it 6 times.

I'm on the fence about Antonio Bryant. He is either a dominant WR (9 catches, 200 yards, 2 TDs in Week 14 last year) or an overrated 2009 bust.

I like my quarterbacks to be consistent. Aaron Rodgers threw or rushed for at least two touchdowns in 11 of 16 games in 2008. Drew Brees also did it 11 times. Peyton Manning did it 9 times. Matt Ryan did it 5 times. Romo did it 8 times (in only 12 games). Schaub did it 7 times (in only 11 games). Philip Rivers did it 12 times, but I refuse to draft him because I don't like him personally. (I've never met him, naturally.) So because of this silly stat I will probably draft Rodgers (ADP = 36) or Romo (ADP = 58) or Schaub (ADP = 72).

Last year I was burned by my lust for rookie RB McFadden. So I've instituted a new rule: no rookies before the 80th pick, and no rookie WRs unless they went to University of Florida. That rules out Moreno (53), Wells (71), Donald Brown (77), Crabtree (Texas Tech). McCoy (81) conveniently is an option. As is Harvin (97) and Green (118). I'm going to throw in Mendenhall (99), who missed so much time last year he is rookie-ish.

If you think I forgot about rookie RB Coffee (199), I didn't. He was ruled out because of what I call the Coco Crisp Theorem: if you've got a fun name, you'll always be overvalued. Milton Bradley is another baseball version of this rule. Is it safe to say Chad Ocho Cinco is the biggest football offender?

You owe it to yourself to read up on Bess

A few months ago, my wife said she would only let me pick up Florida 2B Emilio Bonifacio for the fantasy baseball team we were co-managing if I let her buy a dog.

Since the All Star break Bonifacio has hit .244 with two stolen bases and has been caught stealing twice. The dog, on the other hand, has been quite a hit. The dog, which we named Golden Mucho, has changed my life. More on that later.

Soon after nabbing Bonifacio, our fantasy team began to tank. I was distraught. To relieve my stress, I joined a local cycling team. Some members of the team, sensing my immense reservoir of talent, convinced me to race. During my third race, I was caught up in a crash and hyperextended two fingers and broke my clavicle. Surgery was required on my clavicle. While some folks do the Giro d'Italia a few weeks after clavicle surgery, I was placed on the fantasy 60-day disabled list. My doctor banned me from typing. I feared my season might be over. And so fans everywhere began to wonder, could The Sinkhole pull out victory with a team managed only by a wife who cared more about using fantasy sports as leverage to buy pets?

The short answer is no. My fantasy season this year mirrored that of the real-life Mets. The Sinkhole fantasy baseball team is currently in 11th place in a league with twelve teams. Not that my wife didn't try. She recognized that the league favored starting pitching and traded BJ Upton for Johan Santana, but both players have been mediocre since the trade. She tried to sell Matt Wieters to the highest bidder, but no one was interested, even though this is a keeper league. Anyway. We suck.

But now, football season is here. And my wife has agreed to co-manage again. I am insisting that we draft Devone Bess. She is insisting that Golden Mucho needs a friend. G. Mucho is, she says, lonely. The other day, when I came home from work, I found him on the couch, pawing through a month-old issue of US Weekly. The TV was on, and was tuned to Top Chef marathon. He was the most bored-looking dog I'd ever seen.

When I was out with my broken clavicle, Golden Mucho nursed me back to health. He dutifully carried bags of ice to me. He helped me pull my shirt over my head. When I was finally well enough to leave the apartment, he made sure that nobody bumped my tender shoulder. I owe Golden Mucho a friend.

You owe it to yourself to read up on Bess:

A luke-warm Bess article.

A hotter Bess article.

Hottest: Bess, PPR Here.

I Care That Matt Kemp Is Batting 8th

"Earlier this season, Torre said he didn't have to talk to Casey Blake about batting 8th because he was a veteran who knew how to hit there. Torre thinks the same of Matt Kemp, who batted eighth four times recently. "Matt Kemp doesn't care where he hits," Torre said, adding that if he sensed it would be a problem he would talk with the player first. With Kemp, it wasn't a problem at all."

- True Blue LA

Does it count if I care? Put aside all that baseball BS (power at the bottom of the order, putting a good hitter who can get hits even with the pitcher batting behind him, blah blah blah) and consider that Torre is giving the best hitter on the Dodgers one fewer at bat per game...on purpose.

Suggested Reading:

Is Matt Kemp the most underrated player in baseball? Gleeman makes his case!

Leftovers, Fever Pitch & Johnny Damon

My wife is off on a business trip and so I am alone for a night for the first time in months, maybe years. My goal was to read a textbook about software requirements for work, but I watched Fever Pitch on network television and ate a dinner of leftovers (rice, beans, and two chicken fingers) and a bowl of cereal (Special K with chocolate bits in it) instead.

The movie made me feel...sad. And not just because I'm a Yankees fan. And not just because I was home alone eating a hodgepodge dinner and watching network television. The content of the movie made me feel sad, especially the parts that were attempting to make me feel uplifted. Like Johnny Damon's grand slam, for example.

Let me explain: I miss being able to root against Johnny Damon and his caveman look. Back when he was with the Sox, I rooted against him as a player while simultaneously respecting his caveman look. I miss that complicated love/hate relationship. His caveman look was, well, pretty freaking awesome.

End, nostalgia.

Maybe Matt Wieters can fill the emptiness in my heart.