Shu-How & Me

King of the Trail

When I entered the trail at Long Meadow I was ten feet behind two runners -- I dubbed them red-hat and mesh-shorts -- who were racing and pretending not to.  I held back and watched with growing amusement as the red-hat runner surged, only to be matched by mesh-shorts, and then mesh-shorts counterattacked, but red-hat hung tough.  By the time we reached Queen Hill, which has a vertical of 45', both runners were laboring noticeably.  At the crest of the hill, red-hat broke: his shoulders slumped and his pace slowed.  Mesh-shorts had, it seemed, "won."

I picked up my pace and quickly dispatched with red-hat and was gaining rapidly on mesh-shorts when mesh-shorts unexpectedly veered off onto a side trail right before Lookout Hill.  I had wanted to pass him with authority, to show him that I owned the trail, and briefly considered following him down the side trail just to make my point, but ultimately that would have cut my run short, and so I let mesh-shorts leave the trail without conquering him.

As I neared the top of Lookout Hill and its 23' vertical I was surprised to hear footfall behind me.  Red-hat was making a valiant effort to match my pace.  The topography was cooperating with him, as the next stretch around the lake had no vertical.  Red-hat nosed ahead of me and began to one-step me; no matter what pace I ran he ran one step faster.  I realized that breaking him wouldn't be easy.  I would have to grind him down.  To do this, I would use Breeze Hill and its 95' vertical as a weapon.

At the base of Breeze Hill, I began to run at a pace that I knew I couldn't sustain for much more than a minute or two.  I pulled ahead by one step but could not shake red-hat.  Fearing that if I slowed, red-hat would sense that my fast pace was a bluff and gain confidence, I continued to run at an unsustainable clip. When my body started to crack, I promised myself that if I could just maintain this pace until Midwood, I would allow myself to stop and walk.  We crested the hill together, and as we sprinted towards Midwood, I began to rationalize my defeat: I was dehydrated.  I hadn't slept well. The extreme amount of vertical I was running each week, upwards of 1000', was sapping the energy from my legs.

Seconds before I was about to slow to a walk, Red-hat turned to me and said he was going to stop and refill his handheld bottles.  "Nice run, man," he said.  We exchanged names.  "You were really pushing me there," he said.  "Are you training for anything?"

"I'm just trying to get into shape," I said.

"I'd say you're already there.  Have you done any half marathons?"

I thought this was an oddly specific question, so I answered it vaguely: "Ah, yes, there is one in a week or two around here.  I might do that."

"Queens," he said.  "I might do that one, too.  Well, nice running with you."

We shook hands and then he pulled off the trail.  I ran around a few more bends in trail and then leaned over and threw up three times.

I took the long way home, hoping to add mileage to my run, but I knew almost immediately that this was a mistake.  I was fried.  Miles later, when the trail merged with the road up by Grand Army, I vomited two more times and then forced myself to jog every other block, mostly because I wanted to get home so that I could pour myself a tall glass of water.  I was sopping wet with sweat, and even when I was running it wasn't much faster than a walk.  When I was a few blocks out off the trail I nearly ran right into the back of Red-hat.  He was walking with a slight limp.  His chin was on his chest.  He hadn't seen me, and so I immediately crossed the street and went down a side road.  I vomited one more time before I reached my apartment.

9 Weeks Out:
Saturday 7/10: Run 60min; 50' vertical (4.8M race)
Sunday 7/11: Run 50min; 50' vertical
Monday: 7/12: Run 60min; 150' vertical
Tuesday 7/13: off
Wednesday 7/14: off
Thursday 7/15: Run 10min
Friday 7/16: Run 60min, 200' vertical

Total: 4hr; 450' vertical

8 Weeks Out:
Saturday 7/17: Run 1hr, 35min; 1,100' vertical
Sunday 7/18: Run 1hr, 45min; 300' vertical; city hike 4hrs (10miles) and 108' vertical
Monday 7/19: Run 50min; 180' vertical
Tuesday 7/20: Run 60min; 150' vertical (track workout)
Wednesday 7/21: Run 60min; 200' vertical
Thursday 7/22: off
Friday 7/23: Bike 60min

Total for week so far: 11hr, 10min; 1,938' vertical

Barefoot Runners Never Get Injured

I recently agreed to be come a pacer for LEWIS who is running a 100-mile ultra marathon in the Wasatch mountains in Utah.
 
Pacers are allowed to start at the 39-mile mark.  As far as I can tell, finishing a 100-mile race takes 15 - 40 hours.  Apparently it is helpful to the racer to have company during the race, especially during the parts of the race that are run in in the dark using a headlamp, and during bear attacks, and during the last half the race when the racer is feeling exhausted and sleep deprived.

As you can see from this video, the Wasatch course has slightly more vertical than your typical local 5k.  If I'm going to be any help to LEWIS at all, I'm going to have to start running a few more hills and a little more distance.  I asked LEWIS how I should train, and his response made sense to me: "I think any way of just being on your feet moving forward for an extended period of time will be helpful."

So, from now until Sept. 10th, I will turn this blog into an Ultra Marathon Blog.  I've been reading other ultra blogs and apparently there are a few rules to ultra blog writing:
1. Always be earnest; take yourself very seriously
2. Reference the names of mountains and mountain passes
3. Use the word vertical whenever you can
4. Believe in your heart that people with a barefoot fetish never get injured
5. Have mild outspoken superiority complex over runners who run less than 50k races
6. Have mild unspoken inferiority regarding runners who can break 16 minutes for a 5k (Unless you are Anton Krupicka, who seems comfortable with is 5k abilities:" I mean, I’m not a very good runner. I mean, I’ve never even broken 16 minutes in a 5K, dude.")

Over the next ten weeks I will do what I can to honor the ultra blog rules listed above.

10 Weeks Out: (since the race starts on a Fri, I'll keep mileage on a Sat - Fri schedule)
Sat (7/3): Run 1hr 10min w/ 249' vertical; 2+hrs (7mi) of city walking; 262' vertical
Sun (7/4): Bike 1hr; 299' vertical
Mon (7/5):Run 30min, Bike :20min; 37' vertical [heatwave update: high of 99 degrees]
Tue (7/6): [heatwave update:high of 103 degrees]
Wed (7/7): [heatwave update: high of 99 degrees]
Thu (7/8): Run 50min, 138' vertical
Fri (7/9): Run 80min, 715' vertical

Totals: 7hrs, 10min; 1,700' vertical

Vertical stats from www.mapmyrun.com

Bottomless Sinkhole in Guatemala City

From NYTimes (click here for full post):

"This astonishingly unnerving photograph was posted today on the Flickr.com feed of the Guatemalan goverment and shows a seemingly bottomless sinkhole that opened up on Sunday in Guatemala City as a swath of Central America was drenched by tropical storm Agatha. Click here for the high-resolution version, if you dare..."

Three Closer Predictions for 2010

Kerry Wood saves 20+ games.  The news of Wood's fantasy uselessness is greatly exaggerated.  I personally feel like there is an 80% chance that Wood gets the closer job back.  I know it is trendy to say Wood is toast, but his replacement Chris Perez's career numbers are not exactly confidence inspiring: 98  innings, 49 walks, 110 K, a 3.92 ERA.  Why is everyone so in love with Perez?  He's going to get killed by his own penchant for giving up walks.

Koji Uejara will close at some point and do very well.  MGonzo has experienced a loss of velocity.  If he continues to get hammered, Koji will get a shot to be the closer.  He's proved he can close in Japan and he's proved he can get MLB hitters out by throwing up a 1.18 whip last year.

Ryan Madson will save more than 20 games.

Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft Strategies

Anyone out there doing a fantasy baseball auction draft for the first time?  Nervous?  Here is some literature that might help you formulate a strategy:

• Auction draft strategy from ESPN 
• Auction draft strategy from Razzball
• Auction draft strategy from FFToolbox
• Matthew Berry on auction drafts 
• CBS auction draft strategy
• Yahoo's auction draft strategies
• A treatise on auction drafts from Baseball Notebook
• Fantasy Baseball Hub auction draft strategies

2010 H2H Fantasy Baseball Strategy: C.R.A.S.S (CL, R, AVG, SB, SP)

"Certain speedsters are not getting proper respect this year. Borbon, Pierre, Rajai Davis, Everth Cabrera, and Elvis Andrus are all projected to swipe 40+ bags and score 80+ runs, but they're going in the 13th round or later."

- RotoAuthority

Given the multitude of Stolen Base / Runs hitters that are available after round 13 or so, one (head-to-head) strategy is to draft as many high-quality pitchers as possible in the early rounds before scooping up the hitters like the ones mentioned above in the later rounds.

Now, before you thank me for being a genius, please let me tell you why this plan is foolhardy:

• If you punt saves, you can also "unpunt" them through smart/fast waiver wire pickups. If you punt HR/RBI, you will never be able to unpunt them. In other words, there is no hedging your bets with this strategy. Either you are in, or, as Heidi would say, you are out.
• During that moment when a player on your team hits a HR, your team instantly is rewarded in four categories: R, RBI, HR, and AVG. Why would you draft a bunch of guys who can't hit HRs?
• Pitchers are, supposedly, "riskier" because they get injured more frequently
• Andrus might hit 8th; Borbon can't hit lefties and might lose his lead-off spot to Kinsler; RDavis could lose at bats and/or see his AVG dip; ECabrera might not lead off; etc., etc., etc. In sum, picking hitters late means you are more likely to have to deal with loss of playing time, demotion to lower in the lineup, demotion to minors, and regression of skills.
  

Here is why I'm going to use this strategy anyway:

• I did the boring old "best player available" last year and got my clock cleaned. My team was terrible. So I decided I'd rather do something oddball and fun than predictable and unfun.
• People love power. So if you want it, you'll need to pay for it. On the other hand, powerless players can come at a huge discount. Most people view the Juan Pierre's of the world as one-trick ponies. I'd argue that with 600+ lead-off at bats, they can become three-trick ponies (R/AVG/SB).
• With all the decent SB options available late, this is the perfect year to give it a try.
• The league I'm in has daily lineup changes, three SP slots, four P slots, four OF, and five bench slots. Winning teams in this league usually have one or even zero bench hitters; almost every inch of bench space is used to rotate in pitchers. This C.R.A.S.S strategy won't work for all league settings.
  

A few reminders:

• Focus less on the stolen bases and focus more on the Runs and the Batting Average; a team of speed guys will certainly lock that category down, but if you can't win Runs and AVG most weeks, your team won't be successful. To this end, you probably want to lock down a dependable Dustin Pedroia Run/Avg guy early in the draft.
• Try to get five closers so that you can guarantee winning that category each week.
• Did I mention that you should shoot for a team filled with leadoff-type hitters? You want your team to make up for its inability to hit a home run by getting more at bats.
• You can't afford to draft a single player who is AVG challenged.

Here is what an example team might look like (plus ESPN Projections):

• OF: Ichiro 29sb. 91r, .307 (#1 hitter)
• OF RDavis 37sb, 62r, .279 (#1 hitter)
• OF Borbon 38sb, 80r, .281 (#1 hitter)
• OF Morgan 40sb, 78r, .276 (#1 hitter)
• 1B Helton 0sb, 75r, .309 (#3 hitter)
• 2B Dustin 17sb, 110, .305 (#2 hitter)
• 3B Prado 2sb, 62, .300 (#2 hitter)
• SS Aybar 25sb, 72r, .303 (#1 hitter)
• C Yadier 12sb, 42r, .301 (#6 hitter)
• UTL Pierre 40sb, 62r, .287 (#1 hitter)
• SP Lincecum
• SP Halladay
• SP Lester
• RP JonP (39sv, 1.17whip)
• RP THoff (32sv, 1.13whip)
• P FrankFrank (31sv, 1.20whip)
• P Wandy
• BN Hamels
• BN Nolasco
• BN Josh Johnson
• BN Lyon (24sv, 1.28whip)
• BN Downs (9sv, 1.30whip)

Other Options:

• Alt: Wieters 0sb, 78r, .303 (#5 hitter)
• Alt: Polanco 5sb, 91r, .306 (#2 hitter)
• Alt: Frasor (17sv, 1.26whip)
• Alt: Wood (29sv, 1.28whip)
• Alt: Capps (24sv, 1.33whip)
• Alt: MGozo (29sv, 1.35whip)
• Alt: Dotel (22sv, 1.36whip)
• Alt: Nunez (23sv, 1.34whip)
• Alt: Jenks (31sv, 1.27whip)
• Alt: MMontero (0sb, 66r, .286)
• Alt: Howie 10sb, 73r, .313 (#2/7 hitter)
• Alt: Kemp 30sb, 96r, .307 (#2 hitter)
• Alt: Loney 5sb, 69r, .302)

Example Draft (12-team mixed league):

1. Lincecum
2. Dustin
3. Roy Halladay
4. Ichiro
5. Lester
6. Josh Johnson
7. Jon Pbon
8. Hamels
9. Nolasco
10. Borbon
11. Wandy
12. Morgon
13. RDavis
14. Hoffman
15. FrankFrank
16. Prado
17. Yadier
18. Pierre
19. Aybar
20. Helton
21. Lyon / Dotel
22. TOR CL (Downs or Frasor or Other)

Don't like this team? Pick and choose your own team:

• 1.Pick #2 Lincecum, HamRam, Albert
• 2.Pick #23 Pedroia, Halladay, Ellsbury
• 3.Pick #26 Pedroia, Halladay, Ellsbury, Zack G.
• 4.Pick #47 Votto, Sandoval, Cliff Lee
• 5.Pick #50 Ichiro, Wainwright, Lester, Vazquez
• 6.Pick #71 Papelbon, JJohnson, Carpenter
• 7.Pick #74 Chone, Bourn, Choo
• 8.Pick #95 Hamels, McCutchen, THanson
• 9.Pick #98 Gallardo, Nolasco, Ubaldo, MYoung, Wieters, Bartlett
• 10.Pick #119 Span, Wandy, Borbon
• 11.Pick #122 Garza, Shields
• 12.Pick #143 RMartin, NMorgan, RDavis
• 13.Pick #146 SBaker, RSoriano, Asdrubal, GSoto
• 14.Pick #167 EAndrus, Neftali, DPrice
• 15.Pick #170 FFrancisco, BAnderson
• 16.Pick #191 Capps, EAybar, Loney
• 17.Pick #194 Wood
• 18.Pick #215 Helton, RHarden, Pierre
• 19.Pick #218 Yadier, Kuroda
• 20.Pick #239 Everth Cabrera, A. Escobar
• 21.Pick #242 Liriano, DFowler

(Note: the players in the above team should be understood as placeholders of sorts, merely to give you a better idea of what this draft strategy might look like if it were to be carried out in the present fantasy baseball market. During your draft, you can always target other pitchers or hitters that you feel are more likely to be available in your league or more likely to perform at a high level during the 2010 season.)

Links:

• H2H Fantasy Baseball Strategy: The Pitching Heavy and the Average Challenged (PHAC)
• H2H Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Get Some S.A.C. (SB, AVG, and CL)
• Players that can hit for AVG
• Projected lead-off hitters
• 2010 Sleepers: Julio Borbon
• Head-to-head: Unorthodox Draft Strategies
  

Juan Pierre: King of Contact%

96 players stole at least 10 bases last year. That means that in a twelve-team league, it would be possible for each team to have 8 hitters steal over 10 bases. That sounds like a lot of players.

But how many of those steals are "clean;" how many of those stolen base threats have a decent chance of scoring runs and hitting for average? Nobody wants 10+ steals if they are attached to a part-time player who struggles to hit over .260 (yes, I'm talking about you, Bonifacio).

Well, here are the players who had a contact%* of over 83% in 2009:
*Total percentage of contact when swinging at all pitches.
93.2% Juan Pierre (1.00)**
93.0% Dustin Pedroia (1.64)
90.4% Robinson Cano (.48)
89.9% Denard Span (.79)
89.6% Todd Helton (1.22)
89.6% Martin Prado (.61)
89.0% Erick Aybar (.56)
88.7% Ichiro Suzuki (.45)
88.7% Shane Victorino (.85)
88.5% James Loney (1.03)
88.4% Jacoby Ellsbury (.66)
88.0% A.J. Pierzynski (.46)
87.8% Brett Gardner (.65)
87.3% Elvis Andrus (.52)
87.0% Yadier Molina (1.28)
86.9% Ryan Theriot (.55)
86.2% Julio Borbon (.54)
85.2% Asdrubal Cabrera (.49)
85.0% Nyger Morgan (.54)
84.2% Chris Coghlan (.69)
83.9% Alcides Escobar (.22)
**Eye (also known as Batting Eye), which is defined as walks divided by strikeouts, is in parenthesis. This metric is considered by some to be a good measure of a player's strike zone judgment. The very best MLB hitters have batting eye ratios over 1.00. Eye ratios of less than 0.50 are indicative of a free-swinging approach to hitting and poor strike-zone judgment. Players with eye ratios of .70 or better have a greater probability of maintaining a high batting average than players with eye ratios of .50 or less.

Here are some players that didn't break 83% contact% in 2009:
82.7% Andrew McCutchen
81.9% Everth Cabrera (.52)
80.6% Michael Young
80.2% Rajai Davis
79.4% Franklin Gutierrez
79.4% Howie Kendrick
79.3% Dexter Fowler
78.9% Michael Bourn
77.5% Matt Wieters
77.4% Carlos Gonzalez
76.0% Drew Stubbs

(I know that not all the players listed will steal 10+ bases, but I included them for one reason or another.)

All of this makes me feel pretty good about the hitters on the top list. That is, until I saw that Nate McLouth had a contact% of 84.1% in 2009 and batted .256 on the season.

Links:

• Contact% on Fangraphs
• Juan Pierre reported to camp early
• ESPN's closer chart
  

2010 Y! Default Ranks: The Highs and Lows (Relative to MDC)

Yahoo's default rankings are pretty excited about a few players:
Ranked higher on Y! (ADP on Mock Draft Central / Y! default rank):

• Denard Span (MDC 127 / Y! 63)
• Julio Borbon (MDC 185/ Y! 113)
• Andrew McCutchen (MDC 90 / Y! 60)
• Michael Young (MDC 96 / Y! 64)
• Asdrubal Cabrera (MDC 151 / Y! 106)
• Chris Coghlan (MDC 225 / Y! 102)
• Adrian Beltre (MDC 196 / Y! 159)
• Wandy Rodriquez (MDC 115 / Y! 75)
• Scott Baker (MDC 154 / Y! 98)
• Stephen Strasburg (MDC 264 / Y! 200)
  

On the flip slide, there are a few players that Yahoo's default rankings seem to dislike and/or forget.

Ranked higher on MDC (ADP on Mock Draft Central / Y! default rank):

• Carlos Gonzalez (MDC 121 / Y! 128)
• Gordon Beckham (MDC 94 / Y! 136)
• Chris Davis (MDC 160 / Y! 301)
• Evereth Cabrera (MDC 228 / Y! 270)
• Juan Pierre (MDC 213 / Y! 280)
• Martin Prado (MDC 235 / Y! 294)
• Alcides Escobar (MDC 244 / Y! 335)
• Jake Fox (MDC 344 / Y! 1042)
• Trevor Hoffman (MDC 164 / Y! 255)
• Kerry Wood (MDC 222 / Y! 338)
• Matt Capps (MDC 212 / Y! 393)
• Brandon Morrow (MDC 363 / Y! 484)
• Brad Lidge (MDC 217 / Y! 487)
• Jon Lester (MDC 59 / Y! 78)
• Scott Kazmir (MDC 174 / Y! 222)
• David Price (MDC 171 / Y! 237)
• Max Scherzer (MDC 145 / Y! 263)
• Clay Buchholz (MDC 192 / Y! 290)
• Joba Chamberlain (MDC 197 / Y! 316)
• Francisco Liriano (MDC 220 / Y! 979)
• Chien-Ming Wang (MDC 420 / Y! 1049)

Feel free to post any other outliers that I missed in the comment section.

Links:

• Fangraphs makes some similar-but-different observations
• FJunk makes some similar-but-different observations
• Razzball makes some similar-but-different observations
  
• Stephen Strasburg in NYTimes: Nationals’ Strasburg Resumes Work of Living Up to Expectations

MLB: 2010 Projected Lead-Off Hitters

Runs have, apparently, the highest correlation with fantasy baseball hitting success. So, if you believe that players who bat early in the line up get more at bats, and if you believe that more at bats leads to increased run production, then you might be interested to know who is going to be the leadoff hitter for each major league baseball team. I do not have this information, but what I do have is a list of 2010 lead-off hitter guesses / projections (I sometimes added Mock Draft Central ADP, the draft position in a recent Y! mock draft, and ESPN's projected Runs, Steals, and Batting Average):

Cubs: Ryan Theriot (81r, 21sb, .285avg)
Reds: Drew Stubbs (69r)
Hou: Michael Bourn (79r)
Brewers: Rickie Weeks (86r)
Pirates: Andrew McCutchen (100r)
STL: Skip Schumaker (78r)
ATL: Nate McLouth (95r)
Florida: Chris Coghlan (19th MDC, 10th Y!; 96r, 16sb, .292)
NYM: Jose Reyes (93r)
PHI: Jimmy Rollins (101r)
Nats: Nyjer Morgan (78r)
ARZ: Stephen Drew (10th MDC, 15th Y!; 87r, 8sb, .289)
COL: Carlos Gonzalez (81r, 11sb, .283)
LAD: Rafael Furcal (92r)
SDP: Everth Cabrera (20th MDC; 72r, 33sb, .263avg)
SFG: Aaron Rowand (64r)
BAL: Brian Roberts (101r)
BOS: Jacoby Ellsbury (92r)
NYY: Derek Jeter (103r)
Rays: Jason Bartlett (72r)
TOR: Jose Bautista (45r)
White Sox: Juan Pierre (62r)
Cleve: Grady Sizemore (97r)
DET: Austin Jackson (52r)
KC: Scott Podsednik (44r)
MN: Denard Span (12th MDC, 7th Y!; 92r, 21sb, .304avg)
LAA: Erick Aybar (72r)
OAK: Rajai Davis (62r)
SEA: Ichiro (91r)
TEX: Borbon (17th MDC, 11th Y!; 80, 38, .281)

The list of lead-off hitters available after the first ten rounds of mock drafts who are projected to bat over .280, steal 10+ bases, and score more than 80 runs is small:

• Carlos Gonzalez (11th MDC, 10th Y!; 81r, 11sb, .283)
• Chris Coghlan (19th MDC, 10th Y!; 96r, 16sb, .292)
• Julio Borbon (17th MDC, 11th Y!; 80, 38, .281)
• Ryan Theriot (22nd MDC, 19th Y!; 81r, 21sb, .285avg)

Quick Links:

• 2010 Major League Baseball Project lineups
• Chris Coghlan, fantasy bust?
• Thirty players had more than 600 at bats last year, including Theriot, Rollins, Ichiro, Jeter, Ellsbury, Furcal, and Bourn.
• Orlando Cabrera had the third-most at bats in MLB last year and went 83r, 13sb, .284avg
  

Ben Wallace; armpits

Fantasy Sports:

If you play in a H2H (Head-to-head) nine-category fantasy basketball league (FG, FT, PTS, 3PTM, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TO), you might like Ben Wallace.

Under what circumstances would you ever want a guy who can't score more than 5 points a game or make more than half of his free throws? Well, if your team already stinks at FT and PTS, you'd want Ben Wallace

If you filter the NBA player rankings for seven categories, omitting FT and PTS, Ben Wallace is ranked 4th in the entire NBA.

Life:

I want to find a way to stop my armpits from sweating while I'm at work. Armpit sweat is an affliction--a quiet affliction--that doesn't garner the same attention as pimples or hair loss, but it is arguably more devastating. Pimples and hair loss don't stain your favorite button-down.

I heard a rumor that there is this prescription strength anti-perspirant that you put on once a month. You coat your armpits with this stuff that is the consistency of cake batter, you let it dry and then your sweating issues are solved for thirty days.

For anyone who has had to tolerate the chill of a corporate air conditioning unit on their damp armpits for eight hours a day, armpit cake batter sounds like a delicious solution.

15 Fantasy Football Facts for 2009

Pierre Thomas only had more than 16 carries one time in 2008. Even though I drive his nickname (PT Cruiser), I'm not sure I'm willing to use a top 30 pick on him.
Readables: PT is ranked 20th overall here and 28th here. Oh, and here is an ESPN article asking if PT is an RB1.

Ronnie Brown scored 40% of his touchdowns in one game last year. He had sixteen or fewer carries in 13 of 16 games last year. He had 3 100-yard games last year.

Felix Jones has never had more than 10 touches in an NFL game.

Chris Johnson (9) rushed for more touchdowns than Matt Forte (8) in 2008.

Based on no evidence, I fear that DeAngelo Williams (18 TD) might be the Braylon Edwards of 2009 (Braylon went from 16 TD in 2007 to 3 TD in 2008). It will cost you a 12th overall pick to find out.

Slaton caught 50 passes last year.

Kevin Smith had over 20 carries in 6 of his last 8 games in 2008. He scored in four of them.

Ray Rice carried the ball more than 11 times twice last year. He scored zero TDs for the year.

DeSean Jackson went for 62-912-2TD last year. That's better than I thought, especially when you consider he'll probably pop off a return TD or two and maybe a rushing TD.

I like my WRs to be consistent. Lance Moore caught at least 5 passes in 10 of 16 games last year. Housh did it 9 times. TOwens did it 9 times. DeSean did it 8 times. DMason did it 9 times. DBess did it 5 of his last 6 games. BMarshall did it in 12 of 15 games. Royal did it in 11 of 15 games.

Kevin Walter only caught at least 5 passes in four of his 2008 games. AGonz did it 4 times. VJax did it 6 times.

I'm on the fence about Antonio Bryant. He is either a dominant WR (9 catches, 200 yards, 2 TDs in Week 14 last year) or an overrated 2009 bust.

I like my quarterbacks to be consistent. Aaron Rodgers threw or rushed for at least two touchdowns in 11 of 16 games in 2008. Drew Brees also did it 11 times. Peyton Manning did it 9 times. Matt Ryan did it 5 times. Romo did it 8 times (in only 12 games). Schaub did it 7 times (in only 11 games). Philip Rivers did it 12 times, but I refuse to draft him because I don't like him personally. (I've never met him, naturally.) So because of this silly stat I will probably draft Rodgers (ADP = 36) or Romo (ADP = 58) or Schaub (ADP = 72).

Last year I was burned by my lust for rookie RB McFadden. So I've instituted a new rule: no rookies before the 80th pick, and no rookie WRs unless they went to University of Florida. That rules out Moreno (53), Wells (71), Donald Brown (77), Crabtree (Texas Tech). McCoy (81) conveniently is an option. As is Harvin (97) and Green (118). I'm going to throw in Mendenhall (99), who missed so much time last year he is rookie-ish.

If you think I forgot about rookie RB Coffee (199), I didn't. He was ruled out because of what I call the Coco Crisp Theorem: if you've got a fun name, you'll always be overvalued. Milton Bradley is another baseball version of this rule. Is it safe to say Chad Ocho Cinco is the biggest football offender?

You owe it to yourself to read up on Bess

A few months ago, my wife said she would only let me pick up Florida 2B Emilio Bonifacio for the fantasy baseball team we were co-managing if I let her buy a dog.

Since the All Star break Bonifacio has hit .244 with two stolen bases and has been caught stealing twice. The dog, on the other hand, has been quite a hit. The dog, which we named Golden Mucho, has changed my life. More on that later.

Soon after nabbing Bonifacio, our fantasy team began to tank. I was distraught. To relieve my stress, I joined a local cycling team. Some members of the team, sensing my immense reservoir of talent, convinced me to race. During my third race, I was caught up in a crash and hyperextended two fingers and broke my clavicle. Surgery was required on my clavicle. While some folks do the Giro d'Italia a few weeks after clavicle surgery, I was placed on the fantasy 60-day disabled list. My doctor banned me from typing. I feared my season might be over. And so fans everywhere began to wonder, could The Sinkhole pull out victory with a team managed only by a wife who cared more about using fantasy sports as leverage to buy pets?

The short answer is no. My fantasy season this year mirrored that of the real-life Mets. The Sinkhole fantasy baseball team is currently in 11th place in a league with twelve teams. Not that my wife didn't try. She recognized that the league favored starting pitching and traded BJ Upton for Johan Santana, but both players have been mediocre since the trade. She tried to sell Matt Wieters to the highest bidder, but no one was interested, even though this is a keeper league. Anyway. We suck.

But now, football season is here. And my wife has agreed to co-manage again. I am insisting that we draft Devone Bess. She is insisting that Golden Mucho needs a friend. G. Mucho is, she says, lonely. The other day, when I came home from work, I found him on the couch, pawing through a month-old issue of US Weekly. The TV was on, and was tuned to Top Chef marathon. He was the most bored-looking dog I'd ever seen.

When I was out with my broken clavicle, Golden Mucho nursed me back to health. He dutifully carried bags of ice to me. He helped me pull my shirt over my head. When I was finally well enough to leave the apartment, he made sure that nobody bumped my tender shoulder. I owe Golden Mucho a friend.

You owe it to yourself to read up on Bess:

A luke-warm Bess article.

A hotter Bess article.

Hottest: Bess, PPR Here.

I Care That Matt Kemp Is Batting 8th

"Earlier this season, Torre said he didn't have to talk to Casey Blake about batting 8th because he was a veteran who knew how to hit there. Torre thinks the same of Matt Kemp, who batted eighth four times recently. "Matt Kemp doesn't care where he hits," Torre said, adding that if he sensed it would be a problem he would talk with the player first. With Kemp, it wasn't a problem at all."

- True Blue LA

Does it count if I care? Put aside all that baseball BS (power at the bottom of the order, putting a good hitter who can get hits even with the pitcher batting behind him, blah blah blah) and consider that Torre is giving the best hitter on the Dodgers one fewer at bat per game...on purpose.

Suggested Reading:

Is Matt Kemp the most underrated player in baseball? Gleeman makes his case!

Leftovers, Fever Pitch & Johnny Damon

My wife is off on a business trip and so I am alone for a night for the first time in months, maybe years. My goal was to read a textbook about software requirements for work, but I watched Fever Pitch on network television and ate a dinner of leftovers (rice, beans, and two chicken fingers) and a bowl of cereal (Special K with chocolate bits in it) instead.

The movie made me feel...sad. And not just because I'm a Yankees fan. And not just because I was home alone eating a hodgepodge dinner and watching network television. The content of the movie made me feel sad, especially the parts that were attempting to make me feel uplifted. Like Johnny Damon's grand slam, for example.

Let me explain: I miss being able to root against Johnny Damon and his caveman look. Back when he was with the Sox, I rooted against him as a player while simultaneously respecting his caveman look. I miss that complicated love/hate relationship. His caveman look was, well, pretty freaking awesome.

End, nostalgia.

Maybe Matt Wieters can fill the emptiness in my heart.

When do we start taking Barry Zito seriously?

Nine years ago, I liked a certain young starting pitcher so much that I incorporated his last name into the name of my fantasy baseball team. That pitcher? Barry Zito. I kept the name for four years, and during those four years Zito had won-loss records of 7-4, 17-8, 23-5, and 14-12. After that the name got a little stale, and so I switched it up to something else. About that same time, Zito began to struggle. Well, maybe not struggle, but he certainly wasn't that same dominating pitcher that he used to be. His WHIP rose from a low of 1.13 in 2002 all the way to a high watermark of 1.60 in 2008.

Guys who go 23-5 usually get taken seriously, but Zito hasn't been taken seriously for years. Maybe now that he has racked up three four straight quality starts, it is time to start taking him seriously. Maybe now that he has found a soulmate in catcher Pablo Sandoval, we should start taking him seriously.

I'm going to go to bed now (I have to wake up in four hours to pick up some pitchers to stream), but later I'll try to post some actual analysis about Zito in an attempt to see if he can be a sub 1.30 WHIP pitcher this year.

Oh, and the name of my fantasy team? Zito Burrito. Kinda fun, kinda dumb. Good night.

Readables:

Everything you could ever want to know about Zito's last start.

A quick glance at FanGraphs shows that Zito's 2009 LOB% (75.8%) isn't much over his career average (73.2%). His 2009 BABIP is actually higher (.284) than has career average (.273). His 2009 K/9 (6.11) is actually slightly below his career average (6.70), but his 2009 BB/9 (3.06) ties his best ever (he also had a BB/9 of 3.06 in his 22-5 2002 season, as this graph shows). One change that jumps out is that 27% of his pitches thrown were curveballs in 2002, but now he's only throwing his curve 13% of the time. For some reason, after the 2005 season he abruptly stopped throwing his curveball as much. The only difference I can glean from these charts is that he seems to be throwing a tick faster this year. So what does it all mean? Well he's walking fewer batters and giving up fewer home runs. If he can keep that up, he should be able to continue to be a sub 1.30 WHIP pitcher. I have not idea how true it is, but I like to believe that as long as Sandoval is behind the plate, Zito will continue his resurgence.

Just to summarize in a less blocky paragraph: after Zito pitches, check the boxscore for walks and HRs. If he's continues to give up fewer than 1 HR every other start and 2 walks per start, you should believe in all things Zito. If his HR or BB creep over those thresholds, be wary. Is that too subtle? Then just check back on these graphs (using the BB/9 and HR/9 tabs).

An old Zito Q&A from back in the day.

Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Someone is streaming on me

I do not like it when someone streams on me. It doesn't make me feel good. In order to stop the streamer from streaming on me, I am aggressively fighting to neuter the streamer through a little trick I call anti-streaming. Here's how:

First, some context:

In my Yahoo! league, the owner who is playing me this week dropped the three worst players on his roster on Sunday night (our weekly games start on Monday) and picked up the three best free agent starting pitchers who were scheduled to pitch on Monday. (In my Yahoo! league, you can't pick a player up and play him the same day; you can only play him starting the following day.) All three pitched well, and I suddenly found myself down in Quality Starts and Ks.

Now, the strategy (sort of):

To counteract the streamer, I dropped the three worst players on my roster on Monday morning (I woke up earlier than the streaming owner) and picked up the two best free agent starting pitchers who were scheduled to pitch on Tuesday, as well as a starting pitcher who was scheduled to pitch on Wednesday. The following morning (Tuesday morning), I again woke up before the streaming owner and dropped all three pitchers and picked up two pitchers that were scheduled to pitch on Wednesday, as well as one starting pitcher who was scheduled to pitch on Thursday.

You see, picking up one pitcher who is scheduled to start in two days allowed me to hold him for one night and drop him, thus relegating him to the waiver wire for three days and preventing the streamer from being able to start him against me. (In Yahoo! leagues, if you pick someone up and drop him right away he goes straight to being a free agent. If, however, you hold him overnight, the default settings put that player on waivers for three days.) The idea is to thin out the free agent pool a bit, as forcing the streamer to start increasingly marginal players will help you win ERA and WHIP when one of his SPs inevitably implodes (much like Bronson Arroyo and Mike Hampton did in the first inning of their starts today).

As for the other two pitchers I picked up that pitched the following day, sometimes I started them and sometimes I didn't. The idea was to protect my ratios, while simultaneously hanging with the streamer in the K and QS categories. For example, today I started Ubaldo Jimenez. The reason I could do this safely was because I had such a huge lead in the ratios. So you have to play it by feel.

To review:

My league settings require me to wake up earlier than my opponenent to pick up the best three starting pitchers off the wire each day for a week.

Streaming is insanely stupid and I am insanely tired because I've been waking up early to get players off the wire for the last four mornings.

Just know that you don't HAVE to start the semi-crappy pitchers you pick up when trying to counteract a streamer. Only start a streaming SP when your ratios are safe and you need the Ks and QS (or Wins).

And if the SPs on the wire are particularly bad for a given day, move on to the next day and snag those SPs. You are trying to keep up with the streamer when it comes to quantity, but you want to try to do whatever you can to also maintain some quality to your pitching.

I realize not every owner can just drop three players. As it happens I had a number of injuries (Josh Hamilton, Brandon Morrow, Hong-Chih Kuo) that gave me some sudden roster flexibility.

To conclude:

Thankfully, there is only one owner in my twelve-team league that is streaming. Otherwise I'd be tired all the time. Okay, I gotta sleep. I have my alarm set for two hours from now. Good night.

Related Reading:

Yahoo!'s Behrens talks about streaming a day in advance. All you need is two empty roster spots and the MLB probable pitchers for two days in advance.

Will Sandoval become Zito's personal catcher?

Tonight might be the night we discover if Pablo Sandoval is going to become Zito's personal catcher. Bengie Molina says he's cool with it, and plus, Molina caught twelve innings yesterday, so it makes sense that he'd get a rest.

My thoughts? I'd say Sandoval has a 39% chance of catching tonight. Here is what others think:

Rotoworld's Pouliot: "Pablo Sandoval catches and Barry Zito pitches well; it's a trend that dates back to the second half of last season. Still, the Giants don't want to take Bengie Molina out of the lineup and they've never tried Molina at first base. I'd be surprised if Sandoval is behind the plate for Zito's start Monday."

Molina gives his blessing to Sandoval and Zito.

"Barry Zito may be the first pitcher who prefers being caught by a third baseman."

As many of you know, Sandoval is already catcher eligible in Yahoo leagues, so this information is aimed at leagues that need five or more catcher appearances this year to become eligible (which is the case in Sandbox leagues and probably some others). Sandoval has one catcher appearance so far this year.

Ten Spring Training thoughts on Pablo Sandoval...sort of interesting to read now that we've gotten a chance to see him play a bit this year.

UPDATE 4/27, mid-game (11:24pm): Yes! Sandoval catches Zito. And, perhaps more importantly, Zito is pitching well (4 innings, zero runs) so far, which makes it more likely for this trend to continue.

UPDATE 4/28, late-game (12:32am): A solid Zito start. He pitched six scoreless innings with 92 pitches, but he was left in the game for the seventh and gave up a walk, a homer, and a single. He was pulled for Merkin Valdez, who promptly allowed the inherited runner to score, plus a few more. So no win for Zito. But still, all in all Zito's start was MCE (more conclusive evidence) that he is better when Sandoval is his catcher.

I think we have our answer to the question posed in the title. For now.

The Morning After:

"I asked Manager Bruce Bochy how he weighs the benefit of having Pablo Sandoval working with Barry Zito against the negative of taking Molina, the club’s cleanup hitter, out of the lineup. Bochy insisted this is not a “personal catcher” scenario and he would have rested Molina anyway because he caught all 12 innings Sunday. Bochy did say there was a benefit to giving Sandoval his starts with the same pitcher, because it helps with familiarity."

"Once again, though Bochy didn't fully commit to naming Sandoval as Zito's personal catcher, the manager did say, "It makes it easier for the pitcher or the catcher if Bengie gets the same off-day each week." Bochy added that besides Zito, Sandoval would be most likely to catch Matt Cain or Jonathan Sanchez, while Molina has been charged with the responsibility of working with ace Tim Lincecum and fellow veteran Randy Johnson."

Kinsler on pace to join 50/50 club

Here are the highest draft picks to have been dropped so far in my Yahoo! 12-team mixed H2H league (22-player rosters): Justin Upton (Round 11), Chris Iannetta (11), Derrek Lee (11), Milledge (12), Carlos Guillen (13), Kawakami (14), Jose Lopez (14), and Delmon Young (15).

Of this list, the players that I am most confident will rebound are Jose Lopez and Chris Iannetta.

Other Notes:

After a rough start, Motte has quietly settled down. After giving up 4 runs in his first appearance, he's pitched 6 innings, given up only 1 run, and has 1 walk and 6 Ks. He's probably not an option when not getting saves, but he's worth watching.

I've read more talk about how Chris Ray will take over the closer role from Sherrill, and maybe sooner than most folks think. I believe it because it makes sense. Sherrill is most valuable (to Baltimore) when not in the closer role. Don't believe me? Check out how bad he is against right-handed hitters (1.73 WHIP, 26 BB, 28 K in 2008) and how good he is against left-handed hitters (1.06 WHIP, 7 BB, 30 K, in 2008).

Other closer types that are worth watching include Santiago Casilla, Garrett Mock (Nats), Nunez, CPerez, Motte, Arredondo, Zumaya, Balfour, Izzy (TB), Aardsma, RMadson (PHI). Oh, and with Joakim Soria missing a minimum of 3 games, look into Juan Cruz.

Brandon Wood hasn't played single inning in three games so far. He supposedly will play a little this weekend. I don't get it. If you aren't going to play him, why call him up?

Other middle infield news: Aviles is playing horribly. I predict he will be dropped soon by most managers. Also: Ass Cab (Asdrubal Cabrera) has been solid of late.

When it comes to a steals-only type player to pick up, consider Iwamura (5 steals) to be potentially more valuable than Gardner (4 steals) or Elvis Andrus. Iwamura hits for decent average (.280-ish), scores a lot (91 times last year), and is on pace for 50 steals right now. Speaking of on-pace stats...

Fun With Stats:

The season is already 10% complete, as teams have played 15-to-17 games. The cool thing about this is we can add a zero to any counting stat and get that players' 2009 pace. For example:

Han Ram: 20 HR / 20 SB
NCruz, Inge, & Pujols: 60 HR
Abreu: 80 SB
Kemp: 30 HR / 40 SB
Kinsler: 50 HR / 70 SB
Markakis 180 Runs, 190 RBI
Pujols: 180 Runs, 210 RBI
Aaron Hill: 290 Hits
Kevin Millwood: 300 Innings
JSantana: 270 K
CBills, Wandy, & Haren: 40 Quality Starts
Heath Bell: 70 Saves

Rafael Soriano gets the save: should you save a roster spot for Soriano?

Here is what Rafael Soriano's Yahoo player note had to say after he got the save tonight:

"Soriano threw a scoreless ninth inning with two strikeouts to earn his second save in Wednesday's win over Washington. Mike Gonzalez pitched in the eighth inning to get the win.

"Soriano got the nod over Gonzalez when the Braves wanted to bring a left-handed pitcher in to face left-handed Adam Dunn in the eighth inning. This could be a sign the closer role may be split between the two players, and Soriano may have more upside if both are healthy since Gonzalez may be used earlier in games against left-handed batters."

My guess is that either this is a bit of a false alarm and Soriano only snipes a quiet one-to-two saves a month for the rest of the season OR Mike Gonzalez and Soriano split of the save opportunities equitably going forward. Either way, this news makes Soriano valuable in mixed leagues, especially in leagues that have saves and holds; Soriano has had either a save or a hold in four of his seven appearances in 2009.

What? You want me to speak in an informal, off-the-record type way? Here ya go: ride the Intermittent Raffy Sores closer horse until he gets injured. And he will get injured. Dude's ligaments have the tensile strength of tissue paper.

Stat-y Type Stuff:

Check out Rafael Soriano's career stats (in 263 innings):
K/9 = 9.27
BB/9 = 2.74
K/BB = 3.39
AVG against = .204
Career fastball speed: 93.5 MPH (he's been throwing 92.1 so far this year)

4/24 UPDATE: Well, R. Soriano got the hold tonight (while giving up one run in the eighth) and M. Gonzo got the save. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few weeks.

Fantasy Hurler thinks RSoriano will save more games than Gonzo in 2009 (by the count of 20-ish saves to 10-15-ish).