The Kitchen Sinkhole

King of the Trail

2010-07-17T19:10:00.011-05:00

When I entered the trail at Long Meadow I was ten feet behind two runners -- I dubbed them red-hat and mesh-shorts -- who were racing and pretending not to. I held back and watched with growing amusement as the red-hat runner surged, only to be matched by mesh-shorts, and then mesh-shorts counterattacked, but red-hat hung tough. By the time we reached Queen Hill, which has a vertical of 45', both runners were laboring noticeably. At the crest of the hill, red-hat broke: his shoulders slumped and his pace slowed. Mesh-shorts had, it seemed, "won."

I picked up my pace and quickly dispatched with red-hat and was gaining rapidly on mesh-shorts when mesh-shorts unexpectedly veered off onto a side trail right before Lookout Hill. I had wanted to pass him with authority, to show him that I owned the trail, and briefly considered following him down the side trail just to make my point, but ultimately that would have cut my run short, and so I let mesh-shorts leave the trail without conquering him.

As I neared the top of Lookout Hill and its 23' vertical I was surprised to hear footfall behind me. Red-hat was making a valiant effort to match my pace. The topography was cooperating with him, as the next stretch around the lake had no vertical. Red-hat nosed ahead of me and began to one-step me; no matter what pace I ran he ran one step faster. I realized that breaking him wouldn't be easy. I would have to grind him down. To do this, I would use Breeze Hill and its 95' vertical as a weapon.

At the base of Breeze Hill, I began to run at a pace that I knew I couldn't sustain for much more than a minute or two. I pulled ahead by one step but could not shake red-hat. Fearing that if I slowed, red-hat would sense that my fast pace was a bluff and gain confidence, I continued to run at an unsustainable clip. When my body started to crack, I promised myself that if I could just maintain this pace until Midwood, I would allow myself to stop and walk. We crested the hill together, and as we sprinted towards Midwood, I began to rationalize my defeat: I was dehydrated. I hadn't slept well. The extreme amount of vertical I was running each week, upwards of 1000', was sapping the energy from my legs.

Seconds before I was about to slow to a walk, Red-hat turned to me and said he was going to stop and refill his handheld bottles. "Nice run, man," he said. We exchanged names. "You were really pushing me there," he said. "Are you training for anything?"

"I'm just trying to get into shape," I said.

"I'd say you're already there. Have you done any half marathons?"

I thought this was an oddly specific question, so I answered it vaguely: "Ah, yes, there is one in a week or two around here. I might do that."

"Queens," he said. "I might do that one, too. Well, nice running with you."

We shook hands and then he pulled off the trail. I ran around a few more bends in trail and then leaned over and threw up three times.

I took the long way home, hoping to add mileage to my run, but I knew almost immediately that this was a mistake. I was fried. Miles later, when the trail merged with the road up by Grand Army, I vomited two more times and then forced myself to jog every other block, mostly because I wanted to get home so that I could pour myself a tall glass of water. I was sopping wet with sweat, and even when I was running it wasn't much faster than a walk. When I was a few blocks out off the trail I nearly ran right into the back of Red-hat. He was walking with a slight limp. His chin was on his chest. He hadn't seen me, and so I immediately crossed the street and went down a side road. I vomited one more time before I reached my apartment.

9 Weeks Out:
Saturday 7/10: Run 60min; 50' vertical (4.8M race)
Sunday 7/11: Run 50min; 50' vertical
Monday: 7/12: Run 60min; 150' vertical
Tuesday 7/13: off
Wednesday 7/14: off
Thursday 7/15: Run 10min
Friday 7/16: Run 60min, 200' vertical

Total: 4hr; 450' vertical

8 Weeks Out:
Saturday 7/17: Run 1hr, 35min; 1,100' vertical
Sunday 7/18: Run 1hr, 45min; 300' vertical; city hike 4hrs (10miles) and 108' vertical
Monday 7/19: Run 50min; 180' vertical
Tuesday 7/20: Run 60min; 150' vertical (track workout)
Wednesday 7/21: Run 60min; 200' vertical
Thursday 7/22: off
Friday 7/23: Bike 60min

Total for week so far: 11hr, 10min; 1,938' vertical

Barefoot Runners Never Get Injured

2010-07-05T23:36:00.006-05:00

I recently agreed to be come a pacer for LEWIS who is running a 100-mile ultra marathon in the Wasatch mountains in Utah.

Pacers are allowed to start at the 39-mile mark. As far as I can tell, finishing a 100-mile race takes 15 - 40 hours. Apparently it is helpful to the racer to have company during the race, especially during the parts of the race that are run in in the dark using a headlamp, and during bear attacks, and during the last half the race when the racer is feeling exhausted and sleep deprived.

As you can see from this video, the Wasatch course has slightly more vertical than your typical local 5k. If I'm going to be any help to LEWIS at all, I'm going to have to start running a few more hills and a little more distance. I asked LEWIS how I should train, and his response made sense to me: "I think any way of just being on your feet moving forward for an extended period of time will be helpful."

So, from now until Sept. 10th, I will turn this blog into an Ultra Marathon Blog. I've been reading other ultra blogs and apparently there are a few rules to ultra blog writing:
1. Always be earnest; take yourself very seriously
2. Reference the names of mountains and mountain passes
3. Use the word vertical whenever you can
4. Believe in your heart that people with a barefoot fetish never get injured
5. Have mild outspoken superiority complex over runners who run less than 50k races
6. Have mild unspoken inferiority regarding runners who can break 16 minutes for a 5k (Unless you are Anton Krupicka, who seems comfortable with is 5k abilities:" I mean, I’m not a very good runner. I mean, I’ve never even broken 16 minutes in a 5K, dude.")

Over the next ten weeks I will do what I can to honor the ultra blog rules listed above.

10 Weeks Out: (since the race starts on a Fri, I'll keep mileage on a Sat - Fri schedule)
Sat (7/3): Run 1hr 10min w/ 249' vertical; 2+hrs (7mi) of city walking; 262' vertical
Sun (7/4): Bike 1hr; 299' vertical
Mon (7/5):Run 30min, Bike :20min; 37' vertical [heatwave update: high of 99 degrees]
Tue (7/6): [heatwave update:high of 103 degrees]
Wed (7/7): [heatwave update: high of 99 degrees]
Thu (7/8): Run 50min, 138' vertical
Fri (7/9): Run 80min, 715' vertical

Totals: 7hrs, 10min; 1,700' vertical

Vertical stats from www.mapmyrun.com

Bottomless Sinkhole in Guatemala City

2010-05-31T22:51:00.000-05:00

From NYTimes (click here for full post):

"This astonishingly unnerving photograph was posted today on the Flickr.com feed of the Guatemalan goverment and shows a seemingly bottomless sinkhole that opened up on Sunday in Guatemala City as a swath of Central America was drenched by tropical storm Agatha. Click here for the high-resolution version, if you dare..."

Three Closer Predictions for 2010

2010-04-09T23:17:00.000-05:00

Kerry Wood saves 20+ games. The news of Wood's fantasy uselessness is greatly exaggerated. I personally feel like there is an 80% chance that Wood gets the closer job back. I know it is trendy to say Wood is toast, but his replacement Chris Perez's career numbers are not exactly confidence inspiring: 98 innings, 49 walks, 110 K, a 3.92 ERA. Why is everyone so in love with Perez? He's going to get killed by his own penchant for giving up walks.

Koji Uejara will close at some point and do very well. MGonzo has experienced a loss of velocity. If he continues to get hammered, Koji will get a shot to be the closer. He's proved he can close in Japan and he's proved he can get MLB hitters out by throwing up a 1.18 whip last year.

Ryan Madson will save more than 20 games.

Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft Strategies

2010-03-04T20:43:00.001-05:00

Anyone out there doing a fantasy baseball auction draft for the first time? Nervous? Here is some literature that might help you formulate a strategy:

2010 H2H Fantasy Baseball Strategy: C.R.A.S.S (CL, R, AVG, SB, SP)

2010-03-03T20:18:00.010-05:00

"Certain speedsters are not getting proper respect this year. Borbon, Pierre, Rajai Davis, Everth Cabrera, and Elvis Andrus are all projected to swipe 40+ bags and score 80+ runs, but they're going in the 13th round or later."

- RotoAuthority

Given the multitude of Stolen Base / Runs hitters that are available after round 13 or so, one (head-to-head) strategy is to draft as many high-quality pitchers as possible in the early rounds before scooping up the hitters like the ones mentioned above in the later rounds.

Now, before you thank me for being a genius, please let me tell you why this plan is foolhardy:

If you punt saves, you can also "unpunt" them through smart/fast waiver wire pickups. If you punt HR/RBI, you will never be able to unpunt them. In other words, there is no hedging your bets with this strategy. Either you are in, or, as Heidi would say, you are out.
During that moment when a player on your team hits a HR, your team instantly is rewarded in four categories: R, RBI, HR, and AVG. Why would you draft a bunch of guys who can't hit HRs?
Pitchers are, supposedly, "riskier" because they get injured more frequently
Andrus might hit 8th; Borbon can't hit lefties and might lose his lead-off spot to Kinsler; RDavis could lose at bats and/or see his AVG dip; ECabrera might not lead off; etc., etc., etc. In sum, picking hitters late means you are more likely to have to deal with loss of playing time, demotion to lower in the lineup, demotion to minors, and regression of skills.

Here is why I'm going to use this strategy anyway:

I did the boring old "best player available" last year and got my clock cleaned. My team was terrible. So I decided I'd rather do something oddball and fun than predictable and unfun.
People love power. So if you want it, you'll need to pay for it. On the other hand, powerless players can come at a huge discount. Most people view the Juan Pierre's of the world as one-trick ponies. I'd argue that with 600+ lead-off at bats, they can become three-trick ponies (R/AVG/SB).
With all the decent SB options available late, this is the perfect year to give it a try.
The league I'm in has daily lineup changes, three SP slots, four P slots, four OF, and five bench slots. Winning teams in this league usually have one or even zero bench hitters; almost every inch of bench space is used to rotate in pitchers. This C.R.A.S.S strategy won't work for all league settings.

A few reminders:

Focus less on the stolen bases and focus more on the Runs and the Batting Average; a team of speed guys will certainly lock that category down, but if you can't win Runs and AVG most weeks, your team won't be successful. To this end, you probably want to lock down a dependable Dustin Pedroia Run/Avg guy early in the draft.
Try to get five closers so that you can guarantee winning that category each week.
Did I mention that you should shoot for a team filled with leadoff-type hitters? You want your team to make up for its inability to hit a home run by getting more at bats.
You can't afford to draft a single player who is AVG challenged.

Here is what an example team might look like (plus ESPN Projections):

OF: Ichiro 29sb. 91r, .307 (#1 hitter)
OF RDavis 37sb, 62r, .279 (#1 hitter)
OF Borbon 38sb, 80r, .281 (#1 hitter)
OF Morgan 40sb, 78r, .276 (#1 hitter)
1B Helton 0sb, 75r, .309 (#3 hitter)
2B Dustin 17sb, 110, .305 (#2 hitter)
3B Prado 2sb, 62, .300 (#2 hitter)
SS Aybar 25sb, 72r, .303 (#1 hitter)
C Yadier 12sb, 42r, .301 (#6 hitter)
UTL Pierre 40sb, 62r, .287 (#1 hitter)
SP Lincecum
SP Halladay
SP Lester
RP JonP (39sv, 1.17whip)
RP THoff (32sv, 1.13whip)
P FrankFrank (31sv, 1.20whip)
P Wandy
BN Hamels
BN Nolasco
BN Josh Johnson
BN Lyon (24sv, 1.28whip)
BN Downs (9sv, 1.30whip)

Other Options:

Alt: Wieters 0sb, 78r, .303 (#5 hitter)
Alt: Polanco 5sb, 91r, .306 (#2 hitter)
Alt: Frasor (17sv, 1.26whip)
Alt: Wood (29sv, 1.28whip)
Alt: Capps (24sv, 1.33whip)
Alt: MGozo (29sv, 1.35whip)
Alt: Dotel (22sv, 1.36whip)
Alt: Nunez (23sv, 1.34whip)
Alt: Jenks (31sv, 1.27whip)
Alt: MMontero (0sb, 66r, .286)
Alt: Howie 10sb, 73r, .313 (#2/7 hitter)
Alt: Kemp 30sb, 96r, .307 (#2 hitter)
Alt: Loney 5sb, 69r, .302)

Example Draft (12-team mixed league):

Lincecum
Dustin
Roy Halladay
Ichiro
Lester
Josh Johnson
Jon Pbon
Hamels
Nolasco
Borbon
Wandy
Morgon
RDavis
Hoffman
FrankFrank
Prado
Yadier
Pierre
Aybar
Helton
Lyon / Dotel
TOR CL (Downs or Frasor or Other)

Don't like this team? Pick and choose your own team:

1.Pick #2 Lincecum, HamRam, Albert
2.Pick #23 Pedroia, Halladay, Ellsbury
3.Pick #26 Pedroia, Halladay, Ellsbury, Zack G.
4.Pick #47 Votto, Sandoval, Cliff Lee
5.Pick #50 Ichiro, Wainwright, Lester, Vazquez
6.Pick #71 Papelbon, JJohnson, Carpenter
7.Pick #74 Chone, Bourn, Choo
8.Pick #95 Hamels, McCutchen, THanson
9.Pick #98 Gallardo, Nolasco, Ubaldo, MYoung, Wieters, Bartlett
10.Pick #119 Span, Wandy, Borbon
11.Pick #122 Garza, Shields
12.Pick #143 RMartin, NMorgan, RDavis
13.Pick #146 SBaker, RSoriano, Asdrubal, GSoto
14.Pick #167 EAndrus, Neftali, DPrice
15.Pick #170 FFrancisco, BAnderson
16.Pick #191 Capps, EAybar, Loney
17.Pick #194 Wood
18.Pick #215 Helton, RHarden, Pierre
19.Pick #218 Yadier, Kuroda
20.Pick #239 Everth Cabrera, A. Escobar
21.Pick #242 Liriano, DFowler

(Note: the players in the above team should be understood as placeholders of sorts, merely to give you a better idea of what this draft strategy might look like if it were to be carried out in the present fantasy baseball market. During your draft, you can always target other pitchers or hitters that you feel are more likely to be available in your league or more likely to perform at a high level during the 2010 season.)

Links:

H2H Fantasy Baseball Strategy: The Pitching Heavy and the Average Challenged (PHAC)
H2H Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Get Some S.A.C. (SB, AVG, and CL)
Players that can hit for AVG
Projected lead-off hitters
2010 Sleepers: Julio Borbon
Head-to-head: Unorthodox Draft Strategies

Juan Pierre: King of Contact%

2010-02-23T20:02:00.007-05:00

96 players stole at least 10 bases last year. That means that in a twelve-team league, it would be possible for each team to have 8 hitters steal over 10 bases. That sounds like a lot of players.

But how many of those steals are "clean;" how many of those stolen base threats have a decent chance of scoring runs and hitting for average? Nobody wants 10+ steals if they are attached to a part-time player who struggles to hit over .260 (yes, I'm talking about you, Bonifacio).

Well, here are the players who had a contact%* of over 83% in 2009:
*Total percentage of contact when swinging at all pitches.
93.2% Juan Pierre (1.00)**
93.0% Dustin Pedroia (1.64)
90.4% Robinson Cano (.48)
89.9% Denard Span (.79)
89.6% Todd Helton (1.22)
89.6% Martin Prado (.61)
89.0% Erick Aybar (.56)
88.7% Ichiro Suzuki (.45)
88.7% Shane Victorino (.85)
88.5% James Loney (1.03)
88.4% Jacoby Ellsbury (.66)
88.0% A.J. Pierzynski (.46)
87.8% Brett Gardner (.65)
87.3% Elvis Andrus (.52)
87.0% Yadier Molina (1.28)
86.9% Ryan Theriot (.55)
86.2% Julio Borbon (.54)
85.2% Asdrubal Cabrera (.49)
85.0% Nyger Morgan (.54)
84.2% Chris Coghlan (.69)
83.9% Alcides Escobar (.22)
**Eye (also known as Batting Eye), which is defined as walks divided by strikeouts, is in parenthesis. This metric is considered by some to be a good measure of a player's strike zone judgment. The very best MLB hitters have batting eye ratios over 1.00. Eye ratios of less than 0.50 are indicative of a free-swinging approach to hitting and poor strike-zone judgment. Players with eye ratios of .70 or better have a greater probability of maintaining a high batting average than players with eye ratios of .50 or less.

Here are some players that didn't break 83% contact% in 2009:
82.7% Andrew McCutchen
81.9% Everth Cabrera (.52)
80.6% Michael Young
80.2% Rajai Davis
79.4% Franklin Gutierrez
79.4% Howie Kendrick
79.3% Dexter Fowler
78.9% Michael Bourn
77.5% Matt Wieters
77.4% Carlos Gonzalez
76.0% Drew Stubbs

(I know that not all the players listed will steal 10+ bases, but I included them for one reason or another.)

All of this makes me feel pretty good about the hitters on the top list. That is, until I saw that Nate McLouth had a contact% of 84.1% in 2009 and batted .256 on the season.

Links:

2010 Y! Default Ranks: The Highs and Lows (Relative to MDC)

2010-02-21T17:56:00.013-05:00

Yahoo's default rankings are pretty excited about a few players:
Ranked higher on Y! (ADP on Mock Draft Central / Y! default rank):

Denard Span (MDC 127 / Y! 63)
Julio Borbon (MDC 185/ Y! 113)
Andrew McCutchen (MDC 90 / Y! 60)
Michael Young (MDC 96 / Y! 64)
Asdrubal Cabrera (MDC 151 / Y! 106)
Chris Coghlan (MDC 225 / Y! 102)
Adrian Beltre (MDC 196 / Y! 159)
Wandy Rodriquez (MDC 115 / Y! 75)
Scott Baker (MDC 154 / Y! 98)
Stephen Strasburg (MDC 264 / Y! 200)

On the flip slide, there are a few players that Yahoo's default rankings seem to dislike and/or forget.

Ranked higher on MDC (ADP on Mock Draft Central / Y! default rank):

Carlos Gonzalez (MDC 121 / Y! 128)
Gordon Beckham (MDC 94 / Y! 136)
Chris Davis (MDC 160 / Y! 301)
Evereth Cabrera (MDC 228 / Y! 270)
Juan Pierre (MDC 213 / Y! 280)
Martin Prado (MDC 235 / Y! 294)
Alcides Escobar (MDC 244 / Y! 335)
Jake Fox (MDC 344 / Y! 1042)
Trevor Hoffman (MDC 164 / Y! 255)
Kerry Wood (MDC 222 / Y! 338)
Matt Capps (MDC 212 / Y! 393)
Brandon Morrow (MDC 363 / Y! 484)
Brad Lidge (MDC 217 / Y! 487)
Jon Lester (MDC 59 / Y! 78)
Scott Kazmir (MDC 174 / Y! 222)
David Price (MDC 171 / Y! 237)
Max Scherzer (MDC 145 / Y! 263)
Clay Buchholz (MDC 192 / Y! 290)
Joba Chamberlain (MDC 197 / Y! 316)
Francisco Liriano (MDC 220 / Y! 979)
Chien-Ming Wang (MDC 420 / Y! 1049)

Feel free to post any other outliers that I missed in the comment section.

Links:

Fangraphs makes some similar-but-different observations
FJunk makes some similar-but-different observations
Razzball makes some similar-but-different observations
Stephen Strasburg in NYTimes: Nationals’ Strasburg Resumes Work of Living Up to Expectations

MLB: 2010 Projected Lead-Off Hitters

2010-02-18T19:20:00.012-05:00

Runs have, apparently, the highest correlation with fantasy baseball hitting success. So, if you believe that players who bat early in the line up get more at bats, and if you believe that more at bats leads to increased run production, then you might be interested to know who is going to be the leadoff hitter for each major league baseball team. I do not have this information, but what I do have is a list of 2010 lead-off hitter guesses / projections (I sometimes added Mock Draft Central ADP, the draft position in a recent Y! mock draft, and ESPN's projected Runs, Steals, and Batting Average):

Cubs: Ryan Theriot (81r, 21sb, .285avg)
Reds: Drew Stubbs (69r)
Hou: Michael Bourn (79r)
Brewers: Rickie Weeks (86r)
Pirates: Andrew McCutchen (100r)
STL: Skip Schumaker (78r)
ATL: Nate McLouth (95r)
Florida: Chris Coghlan (19th MDC, 10th Y!; 96r, 16sb, .292)
NYM: Jose Reyes (93r)
PHI: Jimmy Rollins (101r)
Nats: Nyjer Morgan (78r)
ARZ: Stephen Drew (10th MDC, 15th Y!; 87r, 8sb, .289)
COL: Carlos Gonzalez (81r, 11sb, .283)
LAD: Rafael Furcal (92r)
SDP: Everth Cabrera (20th MDC; 72r, 33sb, .263avg)
SFG: Aaron Rowand (64r)
BAL: Brian Roberts (101r)
BOS: Jacoby Ellsbury (92r)
NYY: Derek Jeter (103r)
Rays: Jason Bartlett (72r)
TOR: Jose Bautista (45r)
White Sox: Juan Pierre (62r)
Cleve: Grady Sizemore (97r)
DET: Austin Jackson (52r)
KC: Scott Podsednik (44r)
MN: Denard Span (12th MDC, 7th Y!; 92r, 21sb, .304avg)
LAA: Erick Aybar (72r)
OAK: Rajai Davis (62r)
SEA: Ichiro (91r)
TEX: Borbon (17th MDC, 11th Y!; 80, 38, .281)

The list of lead-off hitters available after the first ten rounds of mock drafts who are projected to bat over .280, steal 10+ bases, and score more than 80 runs is small:

Carlos Gonzalez (11th MDC, 10th Y!; 81r, 11sb, .283)
Chris Coghlan (19th MDC, 10th Y!; 96r, 16sb, .292)
Julio Borbon (17th MDC, 11th Y!; 80, 38, .281)
Ryan Theriot (22nd MDC, 19th Y!; 81r, 21sb, .285avg)

Quick Links:

2010 Major League Baseball Project lineups
Chris Coghlan, fantasy bust?
Thirty players had more than 600 at bats last year, including Theriot, Rollins, Ichiro, Jeter, Ellsbury, Furcal, and Bourn.
Orlando Cabrera had the third-most at bats in MLB last year and went 83r, 13sb, .284avg

Ben Wallace; armpits

2009-11-16T19:17:00.004-05:00

Fantasy Sports:

If you play in a H2H (Head-to-head) nine-category fantasy basketball league (FG, FT, PTS, 3PTM, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TO), you might like Ben Wallace.

Under what circumstances would you ever want a guy who can't score more than 5 points a game or make more than half of his free throws? Well, if your team already stinks at FT and PTS, you'd want Ben Wallace

If you filter the NBA player rankings for seven categories, omitting FT and PTS, Ben Wallace is ranked 4th in the entire NBA.

Life:

I want to find a way to stop my armpits from sweating while I'm at work. Armpit sweat is an affliction--a quiet affliction--that doesn't garner the same attention as pimples or hair loss, but it is arguably more devastating. Pimples and hair loss don't stain your favorite button-down.

I heard a rumor that there is this prescription strength anti-perspirant that you put on once a month. You coat your armpits with this stuff that is the consistency of cake batter, you let it dry and then your sweating issues are solved for thirty days.

For anyone who has had to tolerate the chill of a corporate air conditioning unit on their damp armpits for eight hours a day, armpit cake batter sounds like a delicious solution.

15 Fantasy Football Facts for 2009

2009-08-20T00:23:00.004-05:00

Pierre Thomas only had more than 16 carries one time in 2008. Even though I drive his nickname (PT Cruiser), I'm not sure I'm willing to use a top 30 pick on him.
Readables: PT is ranked 20th overall here and 28th here. Oh, and here is an ESPN article asking if PT is an RB1.

Ronnie Brown scored 40% of his touchdowns in one game last year. He had sixteen or fewer carries in 13 of 16 games last year. He had 3 100-yard games last year.

Felix Jones has never had more than 10 touches in an NFL game.

Chris Johnson (9) rushed for more touchdowns than Matt Forte (8) in 2008.

Based on no evidence, I fear that DeAngelo Williams (18 TD) might be the Braylon Edwards of 2009 (Braylon went from 16 TD in 2007 to 3 TD in 2008). It will cost you a 12th overall pick to find out.

Slaton caught 50 passes last year.

Kevin Smith had over 20 carries in 6 of his last 8 games in 2008. He scored in four of them.

Ray Rice carried the ball more than 11 times twice last year. He scored zero TDs for the year.

DeSean Jackson went for 62-912-2TD last year. That's better than I thought, especially when you consider he'll probably pop off a return TD or two and maybe a rushing TD.

I like my WRs to be consistent. Lance Moore caught at least 5 passes in 10 of 16 games last year. Housh did it 9 times. TOwens did it 9 times. DeSean did it 8 times. DMason did it 9 times. DBess did it 5 of his last 6 games. BMarshall did it in 12 of 15 games. Royal did it in 11 of 15 games.

Kevin Walter only caught at least 5 passes in four of his 2008 games. AGonz did it 4 times. VJax did it 6 times.

I'm on the fence about Antonio Bryant. He is either a dominant WR (9 catches, 200 yards, 2 TDs in Week 14 last year) or an overrated 2009 bust.

I like my quarterbacks to be consistent. Aaron Rodgers threw or rushed for at least two touchdowns in 11 of 16 games in 2008. Drew Brees also did it 11 times. Peyton Manning did it 9 times. Matt Ryan did it 5 times. Romo did it 8 times (in only 12 games). Schaub did it 7 times (in only 11 games). Philip Rivers did it 12 times, but I refuse to draft him because I don't like him personally. (I've never met him, naturally.) So because of this silly stat I will probably draft Rodgers (ADP = 36) or Romo (ADP = 58) or Schaub (ADP = 72).

Last year I was burned by my lust for rookie RB McFadden. So I've instituted a new rule: no rookies before the 80th pick, and no rookie WRs unless they went to University of Florida. That rules out Moreno (53), Wells (71), Donald Brown (77), Crabtree (Texas Tech). McCoy (81) conveniently is an option. As is Harvin (97) and Green (118). I'm going to throw in Mendenhall (99), who missed so much time last year he is rookie-ish.

If you think I forgot about rookie RB Coffee (199), I didn't. He was ruled out because of what I call the Coco Crisp Theorem: if you've got a fun name, you'll always be overvalued. Milton Bradley is another baseball version of this rule. Is it safe to say Chad Ocho Cinco is the biggest football offender?

You owe it to yourself to read up on Bess

2009-08-18T21:36:00.007-05:00

A few months ago, my wife said she would only let me pick up Florida 2B Emilio Bonifacio for the fantasy baseball team we were co-managing if I let her buy a dog.

Since the All Star break Bonifacio has hit .244 with two stolen bases and has been caught stealing twice. The dog, on the other hand, has been quite a hit. The dog, which we named Golden Mucho, has changed my life. More on that later.

Soon after nabbing Bonifacio, our fantasy team began to tank. I was distraught. To relieve my stress, I joined a local cycling team. Some members of the team, sensing my immense reservoir of talent, convinced me to race. During my third race, I was caught up in a crash and hyperextended two fingers and broke my clavicle. Surgery was required on my clavicle. While some folks do the Giro d'Italia a few weeks after clavicle surgery, I was placed on the fantasy 60-day disabled list. My doctor banned me from typing. I feared my season might be over. And so fans everywhere began to wonder, could The Sinkhole pull out victory with a team managed only by a wife who cared more about using fantasy sports as leverage to buy pets?

The short answer is no. My fantasy season this year mirrored that of the real-life Mets. The Sinkhole fantasy baseball team is currently in 11th place in a league with twelve teams. Not that my wife didn't try. She recognized that the league favored starting pitching and traded BJ Upton for Johan Santana, but both players have been mediocre since the trade. She tried to sell Matt Wieters to the highest bidder, but no one was interested, even though this is a keeper league. Anyway. We suck.

But now, football season is here. And my wife has agreed to co-manage again. I am insisting that we draft Devone Bess. She is insisting that Golden Mucho needs a friend. G. Mucho is, she says, lonely. The other day, when I came home from work, I found him on the couch, pawing through a month-old issue of US Weekly. The TV was on, and was tuned to Top Chef marathon. He was the most bored-looking dog I'd ever seen.

When I was out with my broken clavicle, Golden Mucho nursed me back to health. He dutifully carried bags of ice to me. He helped me pull my shirt over my head. When I was finally well enough to leave the apartment, he made sure that nobody bumped my tender shoulder. I owe Golden Mucho a friend.

You owe it to yourself to read up on Bess:

A luke-warm Bess article.

A hotter Bess article.

Hottest: Bess, PPR Here.

I Care That Matt Kemp Is Batting 8th

2009-06-10T21:25:00.006-05:00

"Earlier this season, Torre said he didn't have to talk to Casey Blake about batting 8th because he was a veteran who knew how to hit there. Torre thinks the same of Matt Kemp, who batted eighth four times recently. "Matt Kemp doesn't care where he hits," Torre said, adding that if he sensed it would be a problem he would talk with the player first. With Kemp, it wasn't a problem at all."

- True Blue LA

Does it count if I care? Put aside all that baseball BS (power at the bottom of the order, putting a good hitter who can get hits even with the pitcher batting behind him, blah blah blah) and consider that Torre is giving the best hitter on the Dodgers one fewer at bat per game...on purpose.

Suggested Reading:

Is Matt Kemp the most underrated player in baseball? Gleeman makes his case!

Leftovers, Fever Pitch & Johnny Damon

2009-05-28T22:57:00.007-05:00

My wife is off on a business trip and so I am alone for a night for the first time in months, maybe years. My goal was to read a textbook about software requirements for work, but I watched Fever Pitch on network television and ate a dinner of leftovers (rice, beans, and two chicken fingers) and a bowl of cereal (Special K with chocolate bits in it) instead.

The movie made me feel...sad. And not just because I'm a Yankees fan. And not just because I was home alone eating a hodgepodge dinner and watching network television. The content of the movie made me feel sad, especially the parts that were attempting to make me feel uplifted. Like Johnny Damon's grand slam, for example.

Let me explain: I miss being able to root against Johnny Damon and his caveman look. Back when he was with the Sox, I rooted against him as a player while simultaneously respecting his caveman look. I miss that complicated love/hate relationship. His caveman look was, well, pretty freaking awesome.

End, nostalgia.

Maybe Matt Wieters can fill the emptiness in my heart.

When do we start taking Barry Zito seriously?

2009-05-08T22:56:00.015-05:00

Nine years ago, I liked a certain young starting pitcher so much that I incorporated his last name into the name of my fantasy baseball team. That pitcher? Barry Zito. I kept the name for four years, and during those four years Zito had won-loss records of 7-4, 17-8, 23-5, and 14-12. After that the name got a little stale, and so I switched it up to something else. About that same time, Zito began to struggle. Well, maybe not struggle, but he certainly wasn't that same dominating pitcher that he used to be. His WHIP rose from a low of 1.13 in 2002 all the way to a high watermark of 1.60 in 2008.

Guys who go 23-5 usually get taken seriously, but Zito hasn't been taken seriously for years. Maybe now that he has racked up ~~three~~ four straight quality starts, it is time to start taking him seriously. Maybe now that he has found a soulmate in catcher Pablo Sandoval, we should start taking him seriously.

I'm going to go to bed now (I have to wake up in four hours to pick up some pitchers to stream), but later I'll try to post some actual analysis about Zito in an attempt to see if he can be a sub 1.30 WHIP pitcher this year.

Oh, and the name of my fantasy team? Zito Burrito. Kinda fun, kinda dumb. Good night.

Readables:

Everything you could ever want to know about Zito's last start.

A quick glance at FanGraphs shows that Zito's 2009 LOB% (75.8%) isn't much over his career average (73.2%). His 2009 BABIP is actually higher (.284) than has career average (.273). His 2009 K/9 (6.11) is actually slightly below his career average (6.70), but his 2009 BB/9 (3.06) ties his best ever (he also had a BB/9 of 3.06 in his 22-5 2002 season, as this graph shows). One change that jumps out is that 27% of his pitches thrown were curveballs in 2002, but now he's only throwing his curve 13% of the time. For some reason, after the 2005 season he abruptly stopped throwing his curveball as much. The only difference I can glean from these charts is that he seems to be throwing a tick faster this year. So what does it all mean? Well he's walking fewer batters and giving up fewer home runs. If he can keep that up, he should be able to continue to be a sub 1.30 WHIP pitcher. I have not idea how true it is, but I like to believe that as long as Sandoval is behind the plate, Zito will continue his resurgence.

Just to summarize in a less blocky paragraph: after Zito pitches, check the boxscore for walks and HRs. If he's continues to give up fewer than 1 HR every other start and 2 walks per start, you should believe in all things Zito. If his HR or BB creep over those thresholds, be wary. Is that too subtle? Then just check back on these graphs (using the BB/9 and HR/9 tabs).

An old Zito Q&A from back in the day.

Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Someone is streaming on me

2009-05-07T01:55:00.008-05:00

I do not like it when someone streams on me. It doesn't make me feel good. In order to stop the streamer from streaming on me, I am aggressively fighting to neuter the streamer through a little trick I call anti-streaming. Here's how:

First, some context:

In my Yahoo! league, the owner who is playing me this week dropped the three worst players on his roster on Sunday night (our weekly games start on Monday) and picked up the three best free agent starting pitchers who were scheduled to pitch on Monday. (In my Yahoo! league, you can't pick a player up and play him the same day; you can only play him starting the following day.) All three pitched well, and I suddenly found myself down in Quality Starts and Ks.

Now, the strategy (sort of):

To counteract the streamer, I dropped the three worst players on my roster on Monday morning (I woke up earlier than the streaming owner) and picked up the two best free agent starting pitchers who were scheduled to pitch on Tuesday, as well as a starting pitcher who was scheduled to pitch on Wednesday. The following morning (Tuesday morning), I again woke up before the streaming owner and dropped all three pitchers and picked up two pitchers that were scheduled to pitch on Wednesday, as well as one starting pitcher who was scheduled to pitch on Thursday.

You see, picking up one pitcher who is scheduled to start in two days allowed me to hold him for one night and drop him, thus relegating him to the waiver wire for three days and preventing the streamer from being able to start him against me. (In Yahoo! leagues, if you pick someone up and drop him right away he goes straight to being a free agent. If, however, you hold him overnight, the default settings put that player on waivers for three days.) The idea is to thin out the free agent pool a bit, as forcing the streamer to start increasingly marginal players will help you win ERA and WHIP when one of his SPs inevitably implodes (much like Bronson Arroyo and Mike Hampton did in the first inning of their starts today).

As for the other two pitchers I picked up that pitched the following day, sometimes I started them and sometimes I didn't. The idea was to protect my ratios, while simultaneously hanging with the streamer in the K and QS categories. For example, today I started Ubaldo Jimenez. The reason I could do this safely was because I had such a huge lead in the ratios. So you have to play it by feel.

To review:

My league settings require me to wake up earlier than my opponenent to pick up the best three starting pitchers off the wire each day for a week.

Streaming is insanely stupid and I am insanely tired because I've been waking up early to get players off the wire for the last four mornings.

Just know that you don't HAVE to start the semi-crappy pitchers you pick up when trying to counteract a streamer. Only start a streaming SP when your ratios are safe and you need the Ks and QS (or Wins).

And if the SPs on the wire are particularly bad for a given day, move on to the next day and snag those SPs. You are trying to keep up with the streamer when it comes to quantity, but you want to try to do whatever you can to also maintain some quality to your pitching.

I realize not every owner can just drop three players. As it happens I had a number of injuries (Josh Hamilton, Brandon Morrow, Hong-Chih Kuo) that gave me some sudden roster flexibility.

To conclude:

Thankfully, there is only one owner in my twelve-team league that is streaming. Otherwise I'd be tired all the time. Okay, I gotta sleep. I have my alarm set for two hours from now. Good night.

Related Reading:

Yahoo!'s Behrens talks about streaming a day in advance. All you need is two empty roster spots and the MLB probable pitchers for two days in advance.

Will Sandoval become Zito's personal catcher?

2009-04-27T13:21:00.011-05:00

Tonight might be the night we discover if Pablo Sandoval is going to become Zito's personal catcher. Bengie Molina says he's cool with it, and plus, Molina caught twelve innings yesterday, so it makes sense that he'd get a rest.

My thoughts? I'd say Sandoval has a 39% chance of catching tonight. Here is what others think:

Rotoworld's Pouliot: "Pablo Sandoval catches and Barry Zito pitches well; it's a trend that dates back to the second half of last season. Still, the Giants don't want to take Bengie Molina out of the lineup and they've never tried Molina at first base. I'd be surprised if Sandoval is behind the plate for Zito's start Monday."

Molina gives his blessing to Sandoval and Zito.

"Barry Zito may be the first pitcher who prefers being caught by a third baseman."

As many of you know, Sandoval is already catcher eligible in Yahoo leagues, so this information is aimed at leagues that need five or more catcher appearances this year to become eligible (which is the case in Sandbox leagues and probably some others). Sandoval has one catcher appearance so far this year.

Ten Spring Training thoughts on Pablo Sandoval...sort of interesting to read now that we've gotten a chance to see him play a bit this year.

UPDATE 4/27, mid-game (11:24pm): Yes! Sandoval catches Zito. And, perhaps more importantly, Zito is pitching well (4 innings, zero runs) so far, which makes it more likely for this trend to continue.

UPDATE 4/28, late-game (12:32am): A solid Zito start. He pitched six scoreless innings with 92 pitches, but he was left in the game for the seventh and gave up a walk, a homer, and a single. He was pulled for Merkin Valdez, who promptly allowed the inherited runner to score, plus a few more. So no win for Zito. But still, all in all Zito's start was MCE (more conclusive evidence) that he is better when Sandoval is his catcher.

I think we have our answer to the question posed in the title. For now.

The Morning After:

"I asked Manager Bruce Bochy how he weighs the benefit of having Pablo Sandoval working with Barry Zito against the negative of taking Molina, the club’s cleanup hitter, out of the lineup. Bochy insisted this is not a “personal catcher” scenario and he would have rested Molina anyway because he caught all 12 innings Sunday. Bochy did say there was a benefit to giving Sandoval his starts with the same pitcher, because it helps with familiarity."

"Once again, though Bochy didn't fully commit to naming Sandoval as Zito's personal catcher, the manager did say, "It makes it easier for the pitcher or the catcher if Bengie gets the same off-day each week." Bochy added that besides Zito, Sandoval would be most likely to catch Matt Cain or Jonathan Sanchez, while Molina has been charged with the responsibility of working with ace Tim Lincecum and fellow veteran Randy Johnson."

Kinsler on pace to join 50/50 club

2009-04-24T22:35:00.007-05:00

Here are the highest draft picks to have been dropped so far in my Yahoo! 12-team mixed H2H league (22-player rosters): Justin Upton (Round 11), Chris Iannetta (11), Derrek Lee (11), Milledge (12), Carlos Guillen (13), Kawakami (14), Jose Lopez (14), and Delmon Young (15).

Of this list, the players that I am most confident will rebound are Jose Lopez and Chris Iannetta.

Other Notes:

After a rough start, Motte has quietly settled down. After giving up 4 runs in his first appearance, he's pitched 6 innings, given up only 1 run, and has 1 walk and 6 Ks. He's probably not an option when not getting saves, but he's worth watching.

I've read more talk about how Chris Ray will take over the closer role from Sherrill, and maybe sooner than most folks think. I believe it because it makes sense. Sherrill is most valuable (to Baltimore) when not in the closer role. Don't believe me? Check out how bad he is against right-handed hitters (1.73 WHIP, 26 BB, 28 K in 2008) and how good he is against left-handed hitters (1.06 WHIP, 7 BB, 30 K, in 2008).

Other closer types that are worth watching include Santiago Casilla, Garrett Mock (Nats), Nunez, CPerez, Motte, Arredondo, Zumaya, Balfour, Izzy (TB), Aardsma, RMadson (PHI). Oh, and with Joakim Soria missing a minimum of 3 games, look into Juan Cruz.

Brandon Wood hasn't played single inning in three games so far. He supposedly will play a little this weekend. I don't get it. If you aren't going to play him, why call him up?

Other middle infield news: Aviles is playing horribly. I predict he will be dropped soon by most managers. Also: Ass Cab (Asdrubal Cabrera) has been solid of late.

When it comes to a steals-only type player to pick up, consider Iwamura (5 steals) to be potentially more valuable than Gardner (4 steals) or Elvis Andrus. Iwamura hits for decent average (.280-ish), scores a lot (91 times last year), and is on pace for 50 steals right now. Speaking of on-pace stats...

Fun With Stats:

The season is already 10% complete, as teams have played 15-to-17 games. The cool thing about this is we can add a zero to any counting stat and get that players' 2009 pace. For example:

Han Ram: 20 HR / 20 SB
NCruz, Inge, & Pujols: 60 HR
Abreu: 80 SB
Kemp: 30 HR / 40 SB
Kinsler: 50 HR / 70 SB
Markakis 180 Runs, 190 RBI
Pujols: 180 Runs, 210 RBI
Aaron Hill: 290 Hits
Kevin Millwood: 300 Innings
JSantana: 270 K
CBills, Wandy, & Haren: 40 Quality Starts
Heath Bell: 70 Saves

Rafael Soriano gets the save: should you save a roster spot for Soriano?

2009-04-22T22:29:00.009-05:00

Here is what Rafael Soriano's Yahoo player note had to say after he got the save tonight:

"Soriano threw a scoreless ninth inning with two strikeouts to earn his second save in Wednesday's win over Washington. Mike Gonzalez pitched in the eighth inning to get the win.

"Soriano got the nod over Gonzalez when the Braves wanted to bring a left-handed pitcher in to face left-handed Adam Dunn in the eighth inning. This could be a sign the closer role may be split between the two players, and Soriano may have more upside if both are healthy since Gonzalez may be used earlier in games against left-handed batters."

My guess is that either this is a bit of a false alarm and Soriano only snipes a quiet one-to-two saves a month for the rest of the season OR Mike Gonzalez and Soriano split of the save opportunities equitably going forward. Either way, this news makes Soriano valuable in mixed leagues, especially in leagues that have saves and holds; Soriano has had either a save or a hold in four of his seven appearances in 2009.

What? You want me to speak in an informal, off-the-record type way? Here ya go: ride the Intermittent Raffy Sores closer horse until he gets injured. And he will get injured. Dude's ligaments have the tensile strength of tissue paper.

Stat-y Type Stuff:

Check out Rafael Soriano's career stats (in 263 innings):
K/9 = 9.27
BB/9 = 2.74
K/BB = 3.39
AVG against = .204
Career fastball speed: 93.5 MPH (he's been throwing 92.1 so far this year)

4/24 UPDATE: Well, R. Soriano got the hold tonight (while giving up one run in the eighth) and M. Gonzo got the save. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few weeks.

Fantasy Hurler thinks RSoriano will save more games than Gonzo in 2009 (by the count of 20-ish saves to 10-15-ish).

The RP/SP Eligible Fantasy Baseball Update: Garrett Mock Might Close

2009-04-20T22:03:00.017-05:00

As I mentioned in a previous post, RP/SP dual eligible pitchers can help your fantasy baseball team. Here are a few relief pitchers that have SP eligibility that you might want to keep an eye on:

Brandon Morrow - The best SP eligible relief pitcher of the 2009 season. Look for him to put up Joakim Soria type closer numbers this year.

Hong-Chih Kuo - Dodgers coach Joe Torre has been avoiding using Kuo on back-to-back days to protect Kuo's elbow (which has had four (4!) operations), but as a result Kuo has looked out of sorts. Kuo himself has admitted that he is currently lacking in confidence. Don't push the panic button on Kuo just yet, but if he still is struggling by the time May rolls around, you can begin to get worried.

Carlos Villanueva - Villanueva was so bad as a closer that he has, most likely, been banished to 7th inning duties even with Trevor Hoffman still out for at least one more week. Rotoworld claims Villanueva is still worth using, but I'm not so sure.

Garrett Mock (pictured) - With Joel Hanrahnrahan stuggling as the Nats closer, the possibility exists that the RP/SP eligible Mock gets a shot at the closer role. Mock has two saves in five relief appearances in the Minors so far this year. He also had a Chien-Ming Wang-like 31.50 ERA after his first three minor league appearances this year. So it is not like Mock was tearing up Triple-A. Still, given that Mock has had decent control and a solid K/9 ratio throughout his minor league career, I'm cautiously optimistic that he would be useable if he ever were to get the closer role. Not that it is all that likely he'll get a shot to close: I'd say he has a about a 15% chance of ever closing in 2009, as I'd speculate that Joe Beimel gets first crack if Hanrahanrahan continues to falter. UPDATE 4/21: Beimel was just placed on the 15 day DL. So maybe Mock will get a shot. Then again, Joel H. was able to lock down a save last night, so maybe Mock won't get a shot. Mock did, however, retire the only batter he faced to get the last out of the eighth inning--picking up a hold in the process--in his 2009 debut. It appears he'll be Joel Hanny's setup guy for the near-term.

Dan Meyer - Unlike most of the other RP/SP eligible pitchers, Meyer has started out the year strong: 5.1 innings, 2 ER, 4 K, 2 BB, and 3 Holds. This is a very small sample size, but if you are looking for holds from an RP/SP eligible pitcher, you might try riding Meyer's strong start. Just know that he will probably regress to numbers closer to his career averages of a 1.68 WHIP and a 7.19 ERA.

Others: Jeff Bennett, Justin Masterson, Dennis Sarfate, and Sean Marshall each have 1 Hold in 2009.

Other Readables:

The top RP/SP eligible pitchers of 2009

Rotoworld thinks Mock might close.

Suddenly Mock info is cropping up everywhere! Here is a Yahoo post about the Nats closer situation.

Here is Yahoo's team-by-team closer summary. They've even added a nifty RP/SP icon. And they got rid of the horrible yellow color and went with blue. Good work, guys.

UPDATE 4/21: Hanny-rahan is on a roll! He held on for his second save tonight (1 BB, 1 hit, 0 K). Mock didn't pitch.

Funked-up Starts To The 2009 MLB Season: Six Players Who Are Currently Ranked Below A-Rod

2009-04-19T00:01:00.008-05:00

Every year, a few very good baseball players start the MLB season in a bit of a funk. When this happens, you have three choices:
1. Run away from them, screaming
2. Do what you can to get the funked-up player on your team as cheaply as possible
3. Do nothing.

This year I am mostly going to do nothing. Why? Because nearly every player who has started the 2009 season in a funk is already on my team. You don't believe me? Check this out: my entire team is batting .194 over the last week. Thank you Pablo Sandoval (.216 for the season), Chris Davis (.176), Garrett Atkins (.222), Alexei Ramirez (.143), and BJ Upton (.176). Wow.

So, according to the Yahoo! ranking system, Alex Rodriguez is ranked #962 even though he hasn't played a single game yet this year. For those of you who are in position trade for some funked-up players, here are six players who have played so poorly this season that they are ranked below A-Rod in the Y! ranks. Yes, that's right: the players on this list have been so cold at the plate so far this season that you would have been better off if you'd been starting the injured A-Rod over them:

6. David Ortiz (#1085): You might be able to get Ortiz really, really cheaply. He's batting .158 (6-for-38) so far this season, and people are starting to whisper that his career is done. Kaput. Razzball compares Ortiz's career trajectory to Mo Vaughn. Scouts, apparently, are concerned. What do I think? I don't really know, but I'm staying away for now. (That could change, as I always like a bargain.)

5. Justin Upton (#1109): JUpton started the season by batting .130 (3-for-23). His swing, apparently, needs fixing. People are suddenly saying that 21-year old still isn't ready. Funny to think that if he'd just had three more hits, people wouldn't be having this conversation at all. The only reason I hesitate to endorse him is that his manager isn't playing him regularly. This could either turn into a 2008 Matt Kemp situation, where JUpton plays himself into more playing time, or it could result in a Lastings Milledge situation, where JUpton is demoted. I'll sum up my feelings this way: I'm in love with the guy, but he is currently sitting on the waiver wire in my 12-team money league.

4. Chris Iannetta (#1109): Iannetta started the season by batting .048 (1-for-21). Hey, look on the bright side: his defensive skills have improved since last year. (Full disclosure: I was one of those people who fell for JR Towles in the past.) I am not honestly not worried about Iannetta.

3. Jimmy Rollins (#1110 in Y! game): Rollins has started the year 5-40 and doesn't have a single stolen base. Jimmy claims it is all about timing, and quite frankly, I believe him. I am actively pursuing him in trades. Sure, he's cold now, but he'll heat up soon enough.

2. Alexei Ramirez (#1100): Alexei has started the year batting .143 (5-for-35). Am I worried? Yes, but only because he's on my team, and when players are on my team I worry about them constantly. But someone with more perspective would point out that Alexei made some great adjustments last year, and that he's a great bet to do it again this year.

1. Geovany Soto (#1117): Soto is currently batting .118 (2-for-17), but I blame a "sore" shoulder. If the shoulder injury isn't serious, he'll be fine. If his shoulder injury is serious, he might 2008-Victor-Martinez your team. I say the odds are 80/20 that he'll be fine.

Honorable Mention:

Prince Fielder (#673), Carlos Lee (#762), Stephen Drew (#661), Chris Davis (#628), Jay Bruce (#679), and JJ Hardy (#674).

Other Readables:

Fantasy Hurler thinks that Alexei, CDavis, and Ortiz might be droppable at some point this year.

Fantasy Baseball 365 suggests that Justin Upton might be better off if he were in the minors for another year...or two.

Yahoo suggests you should buy Chris Davis and Chris Iannetta and hold Alexei Ramirez.

Razzball on Alexei: don't despair!

Wang or Pettitte?

2009-04-18T10:47:00.014-05:00

Chien-Ming Wang was just dropped in my 12-team mixed league. Andy Pettitte was already on the wire. My co-manager was pushing for us to pick up Pettitte. I've been resisting, wanting to pick up Wang instead. Here is my argument:

Pettitte:
2006: 214.1 innings, 3.20 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
2007: 215.1 innings, 4.05 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
2008: 204 innings, 4.54 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
2009: 14.1 innings 2.51 ERA, 0.77 WHIP

Which WHIP seems out of place?

Wang:
2006: 218 innings, 3.63 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
2007: 199.1 innings, 3.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
2008: 95 innings, 4.07 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
2009: 4.2 innings, 28.93 ERA, 4.50 WHIP

Which WHIP seems out of place?

Conclusion: The over / under on Pettitte's 2009 WHIP should be about 1.43. Wang's over / under for his 2009 WHIP should be about 1.31. You think it is a bit misleading to only show WHIP, ERA, and innings pitched? Fine. How about this: Wang is 29 and hasn't been linked to steroids and Pettitte is going to turn 38 soon and has been linked to steroids. You think this is ageist, and that I should get over my ageism by watching this link? Ok. You have me there.

Here is how Y! saw it before the season started: Wang is ranked 63rd and Pettitte is ranked 71st.

Bill James projects a 1.35 WHIP for both Pettitte and Wanger.

Of course the day I post this, Wang gives up 8 runs in 1.1 innings in what will probably end up being a 22-4 loss to the Indians (there are two outs in the ninth), raising his ERA to 34.50. Now I'm beginning to wonder if he is hiding an injury.

Yes, that is Joba wearing the checkered sweater in the background in the picture above.

"To reach his career E.R.A. coming into the season (3.79), Wang would have to roll off 48 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings."

Wang is able to correct his flaw in practice, just not in the game.

Q: Should I trade Alexei Ramirez for JJ Hardy & Rich Harden?

2009-04-07T23:07:00.005-05:00

I'm lacking a little bit of context here (is this a daily league? Do you have DL slots? Roto or H2H?), but I'll give a stab at answering Anonymous' question anyway: I wouldn't trade Alexei for JJ & Rich.

Why? Well, blame Rich Harden. My own personal over/under on how many starts he makes this year is 11, and I'd take the under. But remember, I'm the same guy who drafted Harden for both his 2006 (9 starts) and 2007 (4 starts) seasons, but not his 2008 (26 starts) season. I'm also the guy who wrote stuff about Alexei and then drafted him in his own draft. So you can certainly take my advice, but remember that I'm pretty biased here.

As for stats, I wouldn't read much into their stats so far this year:
Alexei: 0-3 (1 game)
Hardy: 0-5 (1 game)
Harden: Yet to pitch in regular season, but did give up three HR in each of his last two spring training starts.

I admit that I'd be tempted because of the Hardy/Harden thing. I'd be especially tempted if your team already has both Uptons on it. Then again, if you have both Manny and Alexei Ramirez I'd be less tempted. On a more serious note, Hardy will get some nice stats at the end of the year, but he seems to get most of them in the same week, so I'd personally avoid him if you are in a H2H league.

I'm all over the place. Bottom line? Stick with Sexy Alexei. Harden is a great player when healthy (top ten SP? top five? He's captain of the all-value-per-appearance team), but you'd be taking a big gamble by trading for him. Arguably (and according to ADP, which is meaningless now that the season has started, but still), Alexei is the best player in the deal, and you rarely want to be on the side of the deal that is giving up the best player.

Good luck, Anon!

4/19/09 Update: Don't give up on Alexei Ramirez yet!

Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts

2009-04-07T08:13:00.002-05:00

So I was listening to Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz's ESPN: Fantasy Focus Baseball Podcast the other day, and I heard Matthew tell Nate that he (Matthew) is signed up to receive google alerts when his name is mentioned on the web. So, I thought I'd conduct an experiment:

Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts. Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry Has Google Alerts.

Hi, TMR. This is kind of funny, right Matthew? That I got your attention in this way? Maybe you're right, maybe it isn't funny.

Anyway, now that I have your attention, I though I'd tell you a quick story: I'm currently co-managing a fantasy baseball team with my wife. She is fairly knowledgeable about baseball, but she'd always scoffed at fantasy sports, so I was amazed that she agreed to team up with me. It wasn't until last night, when she said she'd refuse to let me pick up Emilio Bonifacio until I agreed that we'd buy a dog, that I understood why she had agreed so readily manage with me.

I initially said no to the dog (we live in a small apartment), but a few hours later (right after Bonifacio stole his third base) I broke down. I had to have Bonifacio. So I made a deal with my wife that we could have a dog as long as Bonifacio was on our roster.

My wife left our apartment and returned thirty minutes later with a full-grown golden retriever mix.

“Should we name him Bonifacio?” I asked.

“Nah. Golden Mucho is his name,” my wife said.

The plan was for Golden Mucho to sleep on the linoleum in the kitchen, but after we’d gone bed, he opened our bedroom door and joined us in our bed.

“Did he just open our bedroom door?” I asked.

“Maybe it was open a crack already.”

“Shouldn’t we kick him out?”

“Let him stay.”

I was too tired to argue.

In the middle of the night, I woke up and went to use the bathroom. When I opened the door to the bathroom, I found Golden Mucho squatting over the toilet bowl and using it for its intended purpose. When he was done, Golden Mucho used his nose to flush the toilet, and then he bounded out of the bathroom, past my legs, and into our bed.

This morning, as I ate breakfast and started to get ready for work, the stereo began to play at an acceptably loud level. I don't know what it is with this dog, but he's really good with knobs and levers. How cool is that? There is no way I'm dropping Bonifacio now. He can bat .217 for all I care. We're keeping Golden Mucho.

Okay, Matthew. Thanks for listening. As you were.

Related Reading(s):

Matthew and Razzball have some polite back-and-forth.

Livan Hernandez might surprise Met fans

2009-04-05T17:11:00.011-05:00

Rather than define what an eephus pitch is, it is easier just to show you what it looks like.

Not many dudes throw the eephus pitch. Here are some guys who threw it back in the day (click on name to see video or info on pitch): Rip Sewell (founder), Pascual Perez, Steve Hamilton, Phil Niekro, Orlando Hernandez, Dave LaRoche, Bill Lee, Dave Stieb, Kazuhito Tadano, and Bob Tewksbury.

Here are some dudes who are currently in the majors who have been rumored to throw an eephus pitch from time to time: Mark Buehrle, Casey Fossum, Liván Hernández, Randy Johnson, Armando Galarraga, and Tim Wakefield.

So I guess what I'm trying to say is sure, Livan Hernandez is the pitcher who originally ranked dead last among those projected to throw at least 100 innings, but at least Met fans can look forward to his eephus pitch potential.

2009 Spring Training: What have we learned about Chris Davis?

2009-03-31T16:03:00.010-05:00

If you drafted BJ Upton in a league with DL slots, you are probably wondering when will the Rays finally put BJ Upton on the DL? Well, any day now. Any second, even.

Speaking of Disabled Lists, how do those work at the start of the season? This link will tell you.

So Matt Wieters is in the minors. But what does this mean? When will he be called up? First, let me just state for the record that these rules confuse the heck out of me. Second, because I don't understand them, I'll defer to this site with regards to "Super-Two" verbiage. Third, well, there is no third.

Chone Figgins is 3rd this spring with 8 SB. He also has 3 CS, 1 HR, is batting .407 and has a 7 Ks and 7 BBs. A pretty good spring.

Matt Kemp has 3 SB and 4 CS. Does this concern me? No it does not. I'd be more scared if I were an Alfonso Soriano owner (0 SB, 3 CS).

Chris Davis is the Spring Training leader with 23 Ks. He also has 9 BBs, is batting .310, and has 5 HR. I still think Chris Davis is worth his Average Draft Position (ADP). Also note that Jay Bruce has 20 Ks and only 4 BBs.

Elijah Dukes is not exactly tearing it up this spring: .250 AVG, 1 HR, 3 SB, 16 K, 7 BB. But I am not worried. I really do think he'll win the job and get 500 plus at bats this year and go, minimum, 20 HR / 20 SB.

Sheffield was cut, as Aaron Gleeman discusses here. Sure, Sheff was batting .178, but note that he did have 13 walks and 10 Ks when he was cut.

Ryan Howard leads ST with 9 HRs. Nelson Cruz has 6, as does soon-to-be-2B-eligible Mark Teahen. Alex Gordon has five.

Two hot players: Todd Helton (.515 AVG, 4 HR, in 33 at bats) and Milton Bradley (.524 AVG, 4 HR in 42 at bats).

You need speed to get triples, and Fred Lewis has three of them this spring. He also is batting .373 and has 3 SB (but 2 CS).

Your current Spring Training hits leader? Pablo Sandoval with 29. The rotund Sandoval also manged to steal a base.

Daniel Murphy of the Mets has been a sexy pickup of late, especially after it was announced that he'd hit second in the Mets lineup. He is tied for second this spring with 28 hits. He also has 1 HR, 2 SB, and a .364 AVG.

Ubaldo Jimenez has 14 Ks and 13 BBs. Not very encouraging for a guy who has control issues. Then again, the sample size is so small it isn't really all that meaningful. Take Matt Capps, a guy who hardly every walks anyone during the regular season, and somehow he has 9 walks and only 12 Ks this spring. Then again, Jimenez has also hit three batters this spring, which is arguably more wild than just issuing walks.

My main man Motte leads ST with 4 saves but more importantly he appears to have at least a portion of the closer role. Hey, LaRussa said it, not me.

No one has given up more runs than Zach Greinke this spring (25 runs in 23.1 innings). Don't fret. Cliff Lee is giving up a lot of runs (23 runs in 16.2 innings) but he is supposedly working on something to do with his fastball. Scott Baker has given up an eye-opening 9 home runs in 23.2 innings. I really don't think that any of these stats are all that meaningful.

MLB season, please start soon.

BJ Ryan will be understanding when he loses the closer role

2009-03-27T09:19:00.015-05:00

BJ Ryan has been terrible this spring: six appearances, five innings, six runs, six walks, five strikeouts. But these stats don't matter because it is only spring training, right? Well, maybe not in Ryan's case. His velocity is down around 84 MPH and isn't improving and his manager is starting to freak out and float the idea that Ryan gives up the closer role to the media. Here is what his manager said: "I think (Ryan is) the type of guy, if he feels like he can't help us, he'll just say maybe use someone else," Gaston said Thursday. "He might not say it, but he understands."

He might not say it but he understands? Classic. Anyway, here are a few potential BJ Ryan replacements to keep an eye on until Ryan uses non-verbal communication methods to show that he is ready to graciously step aside:

Jeremy Accardo (pictured) - You might remember him as the guy who saved 30 games for Toronto in 2007. Let me throw some of his 2007 numbers at you: 67 innings, 7.62 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, 2.38 K/BB, 1.11 WHIP. Accardo spent most of 2008 dealing with arm troubles and hanging out with Dr. James Andrews. Bill James projects a 1.23 WHIP for 2009. In other news, Toronto manager Cito Gaston tried Accardo out as a starter this spring, but that plan was abandoned when Accardo got lit up for seven runs in two innings. In 9.1 innings this spring, he's given up nine runs, but of course seven of them came in that one outing early in the spring. He has two walks, four strikeouts, and one save this spring. 3/31 UPDATE: Accardo was just sent to the minors.

Jesse Carlson - Carlson's 2008 stats were very similar to Accardo's 2007 stats: 60 innings, 8.25 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 2.62 K/BB, and a 1.03 WHIP. He also had two saves. Bill James projects Carlson's 2009 WHIP to rise (to 1.27), once Carlson's BABIP normalizes (it was .235 last year, and James projects .312 this year).

Scott Downs - Last year, in 70.2 innings, Downs had 7.26 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 2.11 K/BB, 1.15 WHIP, 5 saves. Bill James projects a 1.30 WHIP.

These three guys might be clones: all have a decent K/9 (over 7), a slightly elevated BB/9 (over 3.0), and a mediocre K/BB. Of these three guys, my gut says Accardo is the best pitcher, but that could just be me remembering his glory days of 2007. He's coming off injury, and the performance of post-injury RPs is difficult to predict. The latest news seems to suggest that Downs would take over as closer in the event that BJ isn't up to snuff.

Jays GM JP Ricciardi is not concerned about BJ Ryan. But remember, this is the same JP Ricciardi that lied through his teeth about BJ two years ago.

3/31 Update: Scott Downs might open the season as the Jays' closer.

The Five Players I Drafted In Both Of My Fantasy Baseball Leagues

2009-03-25T00:46:00.011-05:00

I'm participating in two leagues this year: an 8-team keeper H2H points-based Sandbox league, and a 12-team keeper H2H roto-based Y! league. Despite the vastly different formats, I expected to draft some of the same players in both drafts. And I did double-draft a few players, just not the guys I expected. Here are the five players that I drafted in both leagues:

Matt Wieters - I got Wieters at a reasonable price in the Sandbox league, especially considering all the hype (and it is a two-catcher league), but by the time the Y! draft came along, my Wieters man-crush was at its peak and I reached a bit. Now, a week later, I can laugh about it (sort of), but I must say I'm really hoping he starts the season with the big league team. It's pretty annoying to have that red "NA" next to his name, as it means I can't slide him into my DL slot. Oh, so why did I draft him? Part of it was getting carried away, sure, but I mostly drafted him because he's the first universally-loved prospect I've ever come across. He also walked more than he struck out last year, and so he'll probably be viable in any points league that penalizes strikeouts (like my Sandbox league). Combine all that with the keeper league format, and you can see why I starting getting excited. In the back of my head I'm thinking, wow, if this Wieters guy ends up being a cross between Mike Piazza and Joe Mauer, how can I go wrong? These expectations are probably completely unreasonable. I know this. But it's fun to own someone like Wieters. It's fun to be able to root for his success. Oh, and propaganda pieces like this certainly help keep the optimism machine buzzing. 3/29 UPDATE: It's official: Wieters sent to minors.

John Smoltz - When all the good SPs are off the board, I find I have a hard time pulling the trigger on the crappy endgame SPs. My brain knows that Mark Buehrle will win 15 games, but my heart won't let me draft him. As a result of this stubbornness, I frequently end up drafting players who have been amazing in the past, but are pretty far down the ranks because of injury or circumstance. For example: I always end up drafting the Carlos Marmol-types over the Kevin Gregg-types. Gregg might play well this year, sure, but the finger I use to draft will only allow me to draft the players who have certifiable talent (sorry Gregg). That's why I stick with H2H, as it doesn't penalize you as much for taking pitchers who are going to miss half the year. So, enter John Smoltz...you know, the SP who hasn't had a WHIP over 1.19 since 1996. He won't be back until June, and so I'll have to slide him into my DL slot for a few months. While it isn't a great idea to stockpile injured players in leagues with small benches, I was able to convince myself that in a head-to-head league, winning in September is more important than winning in April. I'll take the 16th-round gamble that Smoltz will regain his dominant form in Boston.

Brandon Morrow - Morrow walks too many guys (4.73 BB/9). This bothers me. He has been experiencing some arm "tightness" this spring. This worries me. But then I look at his incredible K/9 rate (10.44), and his WHIP (1.14), and I feel much better. Oh, and I'm fine with Seattle turning him into a closer. I love unhittable closers that have SP/RP eligibility.

Roy Halladay - Maybe I was swayed by my own post in which I noted that Halladay will bring a 1083% return on investment if he manages to duplicate his 2008 stats. I know some of you out there think that Halladay will regress to his 2007 form (139 K, 1.24 WHIP), a form that was excellent but not quite as good as his 2008 form (206 K, 1.05 WHIP), but you can count me among the folks that think Halladay will come close to duplicating his stats from 2008. Either way, he's worth a fourth-round pick in mixed league 12-team drafts.

Elijah Dukes - Dukes has been falling in drafts, I think, because he isn't guaranteed a starting gig and he plays for a team that has an incredibly crowded outfield. So, I unilaterally decided that Dukes would win the starting gig in spring training. I'll probably be proven right (please!), but in truth this decision has yet to be confirmed. Anyway, assuming that Dukes does get the starting gig, it is tempting to double his stats from the 286 at bats he has last season and get a gaudy 26 HR, 26 SB season. For what it's worth, Lastings Milledge thinks Dukes will go 30-30 this year. Imagine? And it is not like Dukes is some hacker--the dude can take a walk. Not bad for a 19th-round pick in the 12-team mixed league draft. Very McLouth-ish. (McLouthsian?)

My 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft Cheatsheet

2009-03-24T22:38:00.007-05:00

I've already outlined an SP-heavy strategy here, and an RP-heavy strategy here. In our money league, however, The Sinkhole used neither of these strategies. Instead, we generated a cheatsheet of players that we wanted to target in each round and used it as a guide during the draft. Sometimes our targets were unreasonable—like there was no way Carlos Lee was going to fall to round five—but that just meant we didn't draft that player. And sometimes we completely ignored our cheatsheet and let our emotions get the better of us, which is the only possible explanation for why we drafted Wieters three rounds ahead of the round we were targeting him in.

So here is the cheatsheet for our Yahoo 12 team mixed keeper league H2H roto (not points) draft that uses standard 5*5 categories (except Quality Starts instead of Wins), daily lineup changes, five bench spots, 7 pitchers (SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P), one catcher, and four outfielders; we had the 8th pick. Perhaps it will help you make your draft cheatsheet. (Note: our cheatsheet underestimated the speed with which SPs would be drafted in rounds 9 through 15, so you might want to adjust accordingly.) Our actual picks are highlighted in bold (although we didn't always get the players in bold in the rounds we were targeting to get them in, and sometimes we picked players not found on our cheatsheet):

1.Pick #8 Braun, MCabrera, Sizemore, Hamilton (pictured above)
2.Pick #17 Utley, Rollins, BUpton,
3.Pick #32 Kemp, ARod, Markakis, Holliday
4.Pick #41 Halladay / Hamels, Alexei
5.Pick #56 Markakis, Soriano, CarlosLee, Grandy, Rios
6.Pick #65 Chris Davis, Tulo, McLouth, Bay, Hart, Pence
7.Pick #80 Votto? Pence, JShields, Lackey, Cano,
8.Pick #89 Votto
9.Pick #104 Gallardo, Nolasco
10.Pick #113 Nolasco, Soria, Marmol, Broxton, Joba, KWood
11.Pick #128 Nolasco / Greinke, Wieters
12.Pick #137 Price, Wieters, MBradley, VWells, Milledge
13.Pick #152 Morrow / Scherzer, Baker
14.Pick #161 Capps, Qualls, Bell
15.Pick #176 Sandoval
(Emerg 2B: JLopez)
16.Pick #185 Hawpe, JUpton, NCruz, Tavares
17.Pick #200 Slowey, Bedard, RandyJ, Francisco
18.Pick #209 Smoltz, Taveras, AJones, Kershaw
(Emergency SS OCabrera)
19.Pick #224 Kuo, Carpenter
(Emergency 3B: Gordon, Cantu, Beltre, Reynolds)
20.Pick #233 Balfour, Putz, Andrus
21.Pick #248 Maine, Dukes, Butler, Motte
(Emerg C: Shoppach)
22.Pick #257 Lind, IStewart
(Emerg 3B: Lowell, Blalock, Kouz)
Drafted players not on cheatsheet: Guthrie, Maholm, & Atkins.

(If you are interested, the actual final outcome our draft can be found here and here.)

The Complete List of Female In-Game Dunks (According To YouTube)

2009-03-22T17:43:00.040-05:00

Look. I do find it strange that male fans/sportswriters seem way more excited about the female dunk then female fans/sportswriters, or even the female players themselves. Male fans/sportswriters need to chillax.

Also: why is it that anytime a video of a female dunking is posted on YouTube, some haters feel the need to post a comment 1. expressing that the dunk is closer to a layup, 2. discussing how they themselves can dunk with ease, 3. pontificating on the sexuality of the dunker, and 4. stating that they could easily beat the female dunker in a game of one-on-one basketball? Give me a break. Don't bring that garbage here.

So, with that in mind, this post isn't intended to glorify the female dunk, or even suggest that women's basketball would be better with more dunking. It certainly isn't intended to rank or judge female dunks. It is no more than a catelogue of female dunks that can be found on YouTube. (I know, I know. I'm sure other in-game dunks have happened, but as I said in my NBA dunking post, one could argue that if a dunk isn't posted on YouTube, it never happened.) One-stop shopping for female YouTube dunks, if you will. Enjoy.

In-Game WNBA Dunks

(Note: in most cases you can click on a given name to see video of the qualifying dunk.)

2002: Lisa Leslie - First in-game dunk in WNBA history (7/30/02).
2005: Lisa Leslie - No video of this All-Star game dunk (7/9/05).
2006: Michelle Snow - Also in the All-Star game (7/12/06).
2008: Candace Parker - Second WNBA in-game dunk (6/22/08).
2008: Candace Parker - Back-to-back games (6/24/08).

In-Game Collegiate Dunks

1984 - 05: Georgeann Wells - First woman to dunk in a game. Link includes nice follow-up story and recently-found video of dunk.
1994: Charlotte Smith - First dunk in a decade. Dunk was televised, but I can't find clip of it online.
2000 - 01: Michelle Snow - Against Illinois. Also dunked against South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
2003: Sancho Lyttle - Against Gonzaga.
2005 - 08: Candace Parker had, as far as I can tell, seven in-game collegiate dunks. Here are five of them:
Candace Parker - First and second dunk in NCAA tourney
Candace Parker - Against West Virginia
Candace Parker - Against UCONN (@ 2:19)
Candace Parker - Against Kentucky
The rest of Parker's collegiate dunks can be found spliced into this video.
2007: Sylvia Fowles - Against Louisiana-Lafayette. No video of that one, but there is video of her dunking at the 2009 Euro All-Star Game and again in a 2008 game overseas.

Also note: Parker, in the 2004 FIBA Junior World Championship Qualifying Tournament Games, had three dunks in five games to lead the USA team to the Gold Medal.

In-Game High School Dunks

2001 - 04: As far as I can tell, Candace Parker had two high school dunks.
2007-09: Brittney Griner is already the most prolific female in-game high school dunker ever. She's in-game dunked more than 50 times this season alone. Some of her recent in-game dunking exploits can be found here, where she dunked twice in a Feb 27th, 2009 playoff game. Here is a Griner in-game dunk from March 6th, 2009. Want even more info? Fine. This was posted two weeks ago: an interview with B. Griner.

A Smattering of Out-Game Dunks

Maya Moore - In warm-ups.
Michelle Snow - With Parker in warm-ups.
Candace Parker - Wins HS slam dunk contest.
Tudy Reed - Dunked to get a guy.

So, only eight different women have in-game dunked: Wells, Smith, Snow, Leslie, Lyttle, Parker, Fowles, and Griner. That's pretty select company. Think I missed someone? Then get the video footage of it up on YouTube. You can also let me know by leaving a note in the comment section.

Optional reading

Controversy: ESPN The Mag writes about Candace Parker's alphabet cups.

480 photos of Candace Parker.

The Complete List Of Current NBA Players That Don't (Can't) Dunk In Games

2009-03-21T03:40:00.018-05:00

Growing up, my favorite basketball player was Eric Murdock. I used to go to a lot of Providence College basketball games, and Murdock and Carlton Screen were the stars of the team back then. Murdock wasn't a dunker, and although I have a hazy memory of seeing him dunk in a game once, the only video clips of him scoring that I could find were of his signature layup off the glass (see picture).

As I was watching the NCAA Tourney today, I was reminded of Murdock and his non-dunking ways, and I began to wonder how many current NBA players can't dunk. Well, judging from this article, about 20 current NBA players can't dunk. Good to know, but not specific enough for me; I needed to know exactly which twenty-ish current players are unable to dunk. I used the process of elimination and YouTube to get my answer.

What follows is a list of all the guys who do not have an in-game dunk posted on YouTube. Not the most scientific way of separating the dunkers from the non-dunkers, but one could argue that if a dunk isn't on YouTube, it never happened.

List A: These players are on the non-dunking list until a YouTube clip of an in-game dunk surfaces

(Note: I also referenced the CBS Dunk-O-Meter.)

6'5" Roko Ukic - Easily, but in warmups & in writing only.
6'3" Steve Blake - Almost. In-game dunk @ 2:26.
6'3" Steve Nash - This is the closest he's come.
6'3" Beno Udrih - Lots of layups in this mix.
6'3" Jamaal Tinsley - No dunk in top 5 plays.
6'3" Jason Hart - Layup-ish.
6'3" Damon Jones - Gets dunked on here.
6'3" Sergio Rodriguez - Reverse layup.
6'2" Luke Ridnour
6'2" Rafer Alston - Rumored to have in-game dunked.
6'2" Anthony Roberson
6'2" Kevin Ollie
6'2" Mike James - Blocked dunk attempts don't count.
6'2" Marcus Banks
6'2" Chris Quinn - Elevates on jumper.
~~6'1" Mo Williams~~ - Blocks shot near rim. Added 9/21/10 by Anon: Mo Williams dunking on Pierce.
6'1" Travis Diener
6'1" Eddie House
6'1" Jacque Vaughn - Mix sans dunks.
6'0" DJ Augustin - Layup.
6'0" Sean Singletary - Almost.
6'0" Jameer Nelson - Layup.
6'0" Tyronn Lue
6'0" Seb Telfair - This low-quality video, but no dunks in this mix.
6'0" Kyle Lowry - This low-quality video, but no dunks in this mix.
5'11" Speedy Claxton - All-alone fastbreak layups here.
5'11" Chucky Atkins
5'10" JJ Barea - Practices floaters in this clip.
5'10" Brevin Knight - Floater.
5'10" Mike Wilks - A good view of someone else's dunk.

List B: These players are confirmed dunkers and have been crossed off the non-dunking list (click on name to play video of qualifying dunk)

~~Jose Calderon~~
~~Tony Parker~~
~~Chris Paul~~
~~Jason Kidd~~
~~Kirk Hinrich~~
~~JJ Reddick~~
~~Ray Allen~~
~~Zach Randolph~~
~~Allen Iverson~~
~~Sun Yue~~
~~Oberto~~
~~Luis Scola~~
~~Deron Williams~~
~~Derek Fisher~~
~~Anthony Carter~~
~~Mike Bibby~~
~~Jason Williams~~
~~Earl Watson~~
~~Luther Head~~
~~Chauncey Billups~~
~~Louis Williams~~
~~Leandro Barbosa~~
~~Devin Harris~~
~~Monta Ellis~~
~~Rajon Rondo~~
~~Shannon Brown~~
~~Raymond Felton~~
~~Lindsay Hunter~~
~~Eric Snow~~ - With Snow commentary.
~~Randy Foye~~
~~Goron Dragic~~
~~Daniel Gibson~~
~~Delonte West~~
~~Jason Terry~~
~~Aaron Brooks~~
~~TJ Ford~~
~~Jarrett Jack~~
~~Ronnie Price~~
~~Jordan Farmar~~
~~Mario Chalmers~~
~~Gilbert Arenas~~ - I miss Gil.
~~Kenyon Dooling~~
~~Charlie Bell~~
~~Will Bynum~~
~~Fred Jones~~
~~Mike Taylor~~
~~Bobby Brown~~
~~Anthony Johnson~~
~~Willie Green~~
~~Jerryd Bayless~~
~~George Hill~~
*Ramon Sessions
*Matt Bonner
*Royal Ivey
*Juan Dixon - Hmm. Small & grainy pic.
*Andre Miller
**CJ Watson - He can...video? (Dunk-O-Meter says 1 in '09)
**Chris Duhon - Yes, but in game? (Dunk-O-Meter says 1 in '09)
**Mike Conley - Pops can, but... (Dunk-O-Meter says 2 in '09)

*Photo proof only (no video found)
**Dunk-O-Meter proof only (no video found)

List C: It is possible these players are non-dunkers, but they are no longer in the NBA

5'5" Earl Boykins (playing in Italy)
6'0" Dan Dickau (waived)
5'10" Damon Stoudamire (retired)

My guess is that about ten of the guys on List A have actually dunked in a game, but for whatever reason that video isn't posted on YouTube. If true, this would still leave about twenty guys left on the non-dunker list, which is consistent with the SI article I referenced earlier in this post.

Am I missing anyone? Do you have video proof that could move a player from List A to List B? Great. Post it in the comment section and I'll update the list. The idea is for this list to get more accurate over time.

What Will Your Waiver Wire Look Like After Your Draft?

2009-03-20T08:49:00.007-05:00

The Sinkhole recently participated in a Yahoo 12 team mixed keeper league H2H roto (not points) draft that uses standard 5*5 categories (except Quality Starts instead of Wins), daily lineup changes, five bench spots, one catcher, and four outfielders; we had the 8th pick. Our draft was...interesting. For example: according to the Yahoo Preseason Ranks, we don't have a single top-four player at any position, except outfield. Yikes. We, inexplicably, drafted two catchers in the first thirteen rounds, even though we usually take one catcher with our last pick in a one-catcher league. (And Ramon Hernandez, a decent catcher option, is now laughing at us from the waiver wire.) But the two catchers we got (Sandoval and Wieters) could be a smart pair to own in this Yahoo daily H2H keeper format, so maybe it works out. We also went for a lot of other sexy-yet-unproven players (Chris Davis, Morrow, Scherzer). And no real closers. But we did get some Sinkhole-friendly players, like Zach Grienke, Chris Davis, Pablo Sandoval (pictured above), Alexei Ramirez, Roy Halladay, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Jason Motte.

But this post is about what a waiver wire might look like, not about studying our draft on a granular level. So, I thought it might be instructive to go through the waiver wire of our league and look at the Yahoo preseason ranks of all the guys who didn't get drafted. I also included, in bold, our picks. This should give you an idea of what your waiver wire might look like in a typical 12-team mixed (keeper) yahoo league.

Oh, and after looking at the list below, tell me: which player would be the first guy you'd snag off the wire? We'll be able to put Smoltz in our DL slot soon, so we'll need to make a move.

C
9. Sandoval
10. Wieters
14. Ramon Hernandez
15. Navarro
17. Clement

1B
10. Chris Davis
13. Garrett Atkins
23. Sandoval
24. Adam LaRoche
30. Casey Kotchman
30. Mike Jacobs
30. Helton

2B
6. Alexei
19. Orlando Hudson
21. Freddy Sanchez
22. Iwamura
23. Aaron Miles
24. Alexi Casilla
26. Mark Ellis
25. Fontenot
27. Barmes
28. Asdrubal

SS
5. Alexei
15. Orlando Cabrera
20. Reneria
21. Cristian Guzman
22. Elvis Andrus
23. Jason Bartlett
24. Yuniesky Betancourt
25. Barmes
30. Asdrubal

3B
8. Chris Davis
11. Garrett Atkins
17. Sandoval
22. Lowell
24. Kouzmanoff
29. Wigginton
30. Casey Blake
30. Andy LaRoche

OF
3. Hamilton
4. BJ Upton
15. Matt Kemp
22. Alexei
24. Pence
50. Dukes
53 Fred Lewis
62. Francoeur
64 Luke Scott
65 Jose Guillen
65 Gary Sheffield
65 Jeremy Hermida
68 Travis Snider
68 Chris Dickerson
70 Jack Cust
72. Jason Kubel
73. Kendry Morales
74. Ty Wigginton
75. David DeJesus
77. Ben Francisco
80. Michael Bourn
80. Brian Giles
80. Juan Pierre
80. Colby Rasmus
80. Eric Byrnes
80. Fukudome
80. Schumaker

RP
14. Scherzer
18. Marmol
24. Morrow
27. Corpas
29. Motte
29. Kevin Gregg
35. Chris Perez
36. Kuo
37. Ray
40. Scot Shields
40. Rodney
40. Nunez
40. Batista
40. Aardsma

SP
6. Halladay
23. Greinke
42. Scherzer
52. Morrow
54. Wandy Rod
55. John Maine
56. Mike Pelfrey
62. Oliver Perez
66. Jonathan Sanchez
67. Maholm
71. Kuo
72. Sean Marshall
73. Smoltz
74. Andy Pettitte
78. Ian Snell
79. Guthrie
80. Sonnanstine
80. Galarraga
80. Arroyo
80. Neftali Feliz
80. Aaron Cook
80. Trevor Cahill
80. Brad Penny
80. Phil Hughes
80. David Purcey
80. Carlos Carrasco

Mike Lowell Optimism Despite Looming Pessimism

2009-03-18T13:43:00.006-05:00

After his excellent 2007 season, Mike Lowell was the 125th player drafted before the start of the 2008 baseball season. He was the 11th third baseman drafted.

In 2009, he’s been the 24th third baseman drafted. His Average Draft Position (ADP) is 207.

In a year when things get pretty thin at the 3B position after the first ten rounds or so, it’d be nice to have a late-round 3B who could perform as a top 12-to-15 third baseman. Is the 35-year-old Mike Lowell that guy?

Well, he’s probably not going to duplicate his 2007 stats:
79 R, 21 HR, 120 RBI, 3 SB, .324 AVG in 589 at bats

For 2009, Bill James projects:
59 R, 16 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB, .277 AVG in 462 at bats

But let’s say that Lowell manages to get in 589 at bats again. This is not completely improbable, as he averaged 551 at bats in the eight-season stretch that ran from 2000 to 2007. I know, I know, but for the sake of argument, let’s just pretend he can get in 589 at bats in 2009. How would this change Bill James’ 2009 projection? Like so:
75 R, 20 HR, 96 RBI, 3 SB, .277 AVG

That’s not too bad, is it? Granted, Bill James is the most optimistic man on the human planet, but still. I wonder, how would this manipulated projection compare with the top 15 3B from the 2008 season?
Well, Troy Glaus was the 15th-best 3B (and 121st player overall) last year with these stats:
69 R, 27 HR, 99 RBI, 0 SB, .270 AVG in 544 at bats.

Not convinced? Kevin Kouzmanoff was the 18th-best 3B (and 198th overall) last year with these stats:
71 R, 23 HR, 84 RBI, 0 SB, .260 AVG in 624 at bats.

My point is this: Lowell was unable to live up to his high ADP in 2008, but he is a very good bet to outperform his ADP in 2009. And I’ll add this tidbit: he might be a better late-round 3B to add then 29 HR hitting, 11 SB stealing (possibly redundant) Mark Reynolds.

Mark Reynolds has a contact rate of 62.3%, one of the worst rates in the league. This doesn’t mean that he’s going to suck, of course, but I think it is safe to say that his inability to make contact will give his owners intermittent headaches throughout the season. For example, Reynolds batted .293 in June of last year, and then batted .217 for the next two months. Yikes.

Look, I’m still interested in Reynolds, mostly because of the 30 HR / 10 SB potential so late in the draft (although I'm less interested in him in H2H leagues), but if you want a safer, more consistent option to slide into your 3B slot (especially in H2H leagues), why not try Lowell? Lowell’s career contact rate is 88.8%. He’s recovering well from his October hip surgery (he went 2-for-2 with a HR against the Yanks in his first game back at 3B) and is on track to be ready for Opening Day.

I encourage you to blame Lowell’s 2008 struggles on his hip. Assume the Red Sox will play Lowell at 3B nearly every day despite his fragility. Oh, so you bring up how Kevin Youkilis has been taking more grounders at third this spring just in case Lowell has a setback? Stop trying to scare me. It won't work. Pencil in 20 HR and nearly 100 RBI. And as for his projected .277 average? Bah. Pencil in .285+. I mean, why not be optimistic? Unlike last year, 2009 Mike Lowell optimism isn’t going to cost you very much.

Chris Bosh vs. Nate Robinson: What Happened Next?

2009-03-13T14:16:00.009-05:00

Check out this photograph:

Now vote in this poll...what do you think happened immediately after this photograph was taken?

What happened immediately after this photograph was taken? ( Online surveys)

Want to know what actually happened? Then watch this video by clicking here.

And that's all for this installment of What Happened Next?

Is Jason Motte Leading the STL Closer Battle?

2009-03-12T10:46:00.020-05:00

Jason Motte has had an interesting path to the majors: he went from .191 hitting catcher to 96.6 MPH throwing pitcher.

He has reportedly moved in front of Chris Perez in the battle for the closer role.

A Cardinals blogger thinks Motte may get "quite a number" of saves this season.

Motte got a save (albeit meaningless) the other day.

He had an insane 14.85 K/9 in the PCL league last year. Plus, he looks insane when he's pitching. The insanely good / insane looking combo is not bad for a potential closer who isn't even getting drafted in most leagues.

A feeble attempt to provide additional context: Tony LaRussa, Motte's manager, seems to prefer experience in the closer role, and it should also be noted that Motte is only a few bad outings away from starting the season in Triple-A. But did you see that 14.85 K/9 number? Insane!

Audio on Motte from a January 18th, 2009 interview: "We were at a dinner last night for Tony's foundation and he [Tony LaRussa] introduced us [Motte & Chris Perez] and he's like these are the two guys who are probably going out for the closer role."

3/13 UPDATE: "La Russa, who earlier had said veteran Ryan Franklin also was a candidate to close early in the season, reiterated that he thought both Perez and Motte could be closers. 'If one guy emerges, he becomes the closer. If he doesn't, then they all kind of share it,' said La Russa."

Perez got a save on Friday, March 13th but also gave up 2 runs. He's now given up 3 runs in 5 innings this spring. Rotoworld speculates in their news feed that Perez won't start the season as closer. Then again, this is just spring training so maybe we're getting ahead of ourselves here.

3/17/09 Update: "Jason Motte touched 98 mph consistently and struck out the side in the eighth inning of Monday's ballgame, holding fast to a 6-6 tie."

3/20 UPDATE: Chris Perez is shut down for the next several days. So now it's probably down to Motte and Franklin for the closer role. And Kinney. And anyone else LaRussa dreams up. Pitching coach Dave Duncan said this: "Anyone who's been following what's been going on would notice that among those receiving consideration (to close), Motte has been the most impressive. There's a ways to go in camp. But that's where it stands for me."

3/31 Update: It's official! Rotoworld reports that Motte will get at least some of the saves. How many? Who else might get saves? That we don't quite know yet. What we do know is that Chris Perez has been sent to the minors, and so if Motte does end up having to share the role, it will probably be with Franklin and/or Kinney.

4/6 Update: Well, Motte got St. Louis' first save opportunity, thus completing the improbable switch from hitter to pitcher, a move that is otherwise known as the reverse Ankiel. That said, the catcher-turned-closer did blow his first save in spectacular fashion. The silver lining? He was one strike away from escaping from a 1-run save. Hopefully he gets a few more chance before getting pulled. Okay, I'm done updating this post. If Motte does anything worthwhile in the future, it will be noted in a new post. This post is getting unwieldy.

Conclusion: Motte might already be the favorite to close, he costs next to nothing to draft, and he has a brief track record of striking out boatloads of guys. Put that in your craw and ponder it.

Conclusion #2: As Motte slowly begins to get hyped, it is important to keep in mind that his fastball is straight as an arrow and his secondary pitches have room for improvement. What I do I mean by this? Well, not to crash my own Motte, party, but it is possible that major league hitters eventually begin to catch up with Motte. That said, it is also possible that he continues to click along striking out everything in his path. If he does bomb, we can't complain because he was very cheap to draft. My thought? I think he'll be amazing for most of the season and then have a few rough patches after the All-Star break. Pure speculation, of course.

When will Chone play his 5th game at 2B?

2009-03-12T07:25:00.009-05:00

I’m in an eight-team Sandbox keeper points league, and in this format Desmond DeChone Figgins, AKA Chone “Shawn” Figgins, doesn’t qualify for 2B. He needed to play 15 games at 2B in 2008 in order to be eligible at 2B in 2009. He played nine games there in 2008. He’s also played at least nine games at 2B in every season of his career.

As a 3B in an eight-team league, Chone, apparently, isn’t all that interesting. We’re currently in the 21st round of a slowlive draft, and Chone has yet to be drafted. If, however, Chone were to qualify as a 2B early in the 2009 season, he’d be considerably more valuable, as the 2B pool is pretty thin. In order to qualify for 2B in this format, he needs to make five appearances at 2B.

So I began to wonder, when did Chone appear in his fifth game at 2B in 2008? Was it one of those things where he played 3B all year and then in late September he played a string of games at 2B? Or was his 2B playing evenly dispersed throughout the 2008 season?

Well, he played his first 2008 game at 2B on April 27th, his second on April 28th, third on April 29th, fourth on April 30th, and fifth on May 1st. That’s pretty early in the season. But perhaps he got a little lucky last year, as Howie Kendrick and Maicer Izturis had injury issues in April of last year.

So when did Chone play his fifth game at second base in 2007? Well, he played his first 2007 game at 2B on May 3rd, his second on May 10th, third on July 8th, fourth on July 15th, and fifth on July 19th. So he gained second base eligibility significantly later in the season in 2007. But it should be noted that he didn’t play his first 2007 game until April 30th, one full month into the season.

So what have we learned? It took Chone 1 month to gain 2B eligibility in 2008, and 2.5 months to gain 2B eligibility in 2007. It should also be noted that on five of the ten dates listed above in which Chone played 2B, Brandon Wood was in the lineup.

Speaking of Brandon Wood, in January, there had been talk of moving Chone to outfield if Brandon Wood impressed in spring training. What has Wood done so far in spring training? 10-for-24 with two HR and two SB. Impressive. But with Bobby Abreu on the team now, it seems less likely that Chone moves to the outfield to give Wood some playing time (unless Abreu becomes a semi-frequent DHer...or maybe Wood plays some DH. Sigh. A lot is still up in the air). To get Wood into the lineup from time to time (as well as 3B role player Robb Quinlan), the Angels might have to slide Chone over to 2B. Another option would be to have Wood play SS and replace the Maicer Izturis / Erick Aybar platoon going on there.

You have to figure that at worst, Chone will have 2B eligibility 2.5 months into the season, which means Chone could be your second baseman for 60% of the season. And if Brandon Wood keeps hitting in spring training, it could happen much sooner than that. It is a little early to be making predictions, but I’d put the over/under at, say, May 25th, 2009.

Angels have "happy dilemma" in infield: "In eight Cactus League games, Wood is hitting .417 with two homers, two doubles, a triple and an .833 slugging percentage. He leads the club with eight RBIs -- but does not have a position with Chone Figgins at third and Maicer Izturis and Erick Aybar sharing shortstop."

For what it’s worth, Chone is 4-for-14 with three SB and one CS so far in spring training.

One-Stop Shopping for 2009 Fantasy Baseball Position Primers

2009-03-11T12:20:00.007-05:00

In an effort to keep things tidy, I've put the following position primers in one post:

1B: Is it possible to make Delgado sexy again?

2B: Is Alexei Ramirez worth his ADP?

SS: Jhonny Peralta is entering his age-27 year...should you invest?

3B: Was Mark DeRosa's 2008 season a "lucky" or "career" year?

C: Kelly Shoppach and his bad contact rate might help your team.

OF: Andre Ethier isn't getting any respect.

SP: Is there a better draft investment than Roy Halladay?

RP: No one else is paying for saves. Does that mean you should?

Gordon Beckham Speaks!

2009-03-10T14:12:00.009-05:00

Still early. I know. But Beckham has been turning some heads this spring.

Oh, and if you were wondering what the heck this post was about, I was running a test to see if I could get a twitter feed to superimpose over an image. Also, Beckham has been hot (6-for-18, 2 HR, 1 SB). But perhaps we should take a step back and see what he does over the next 20-some spring games before we jump out of our pants.

Gordon Beckham has a blog! Check it out here. Here is a teaser from his blog: "Well just when I thought I had a lot of things figured out, I realized I had no clue...."

This just in: an interesting video of Gordon Beckham!

Note To Self RE: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft

2009-03-10T06:20:00.018-05:00

Draft Stephen Strasburg because he is 7'13" and can throw the ball 117 mph with either arm.

If you don't see a video above, it is probably because you are using google reader, and for some reason the video doesn't appear there (even though YouTube is owned by Google). If this pertains to you, click the title link or the "read more" link and it will bring you to the TKSink blogspot page.

(For fullscreen fun, hit the fullscreen button, which is to the right of the volume button.)

More Strasburg folklore from Y!

A SI article on Strasburg is about to drop, and here is an interview with the guy who wrote the article. UPDATE 5/9: Here is the SI article on Strasburg.

UPDATE 4/27: CTB notes that Strasburg is clicking along: 9-0 1.54 ERA.

UPDATE 5/9: Strasburg throws a 17K no hitter and Boras gets drool on his chin.

2009 Spring Training: Wieters hitting .471

2009-03-09T12:35:00.006-05:00

Look. I know these games don't mean much. Still, it is fun to look through the spring training stats and pretend that they provide clues for what the future will bring. So let's agree to suspend our disbelief for a bit and enjoy this post for what it is.

Matt Wieters has 8 hits in 17 at bats, includng a home run (1 BB, 0 K).

Guess who leads the league in strikeouts? Chris Davis, with 11 in 22 at bats. He's batting .182 so far. On the plus side, he also has six walks. If you were thinking of drafting Davis for a points league that gives negative points for strikeouts, the early returns indicate that his strikeouts are going to be a problem.

Matt Murton has two (2!) stolen bases. Before you think he might suddenly morph into David Wright, you should know that he's also been caught two times. Still, the steals are interesting for a guy who has only attempted 11 steals in 900 career major league at bats (he was successful in 8 of his 11 attempts).

It always makes me feel better about a power/speed guy when I see both phases of his game are working in spring training. Which is why I feel good about Corey Hart, who has two home runs and three stolen bases so far, and Matt Kemp, who has three stolen bases and one home run.

Ryan Freel: 5 SB, 0 CS.

Adam Jones: 4 SB, 0 CS.

Pablo "Little Money" Sandoval has 9 hits in 22 at bats, including 2 HR (2 BB, 3 K). He also had a 14-pitch at bat that Carlos Villanueva called "ridiculous." He's had zero innings at catcher, and for those of you in leagues where Sandoval isn't yet catcher eligible, it is unclear if Sandoval will get the starts he needs this year (he needs five in Sandbox) in order to gain catcher eligibility.

Coco Crisp has 7 BB and 2 K so far this spring.

H2H Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Get Some S.A.C. (SB, AVG, and CL)

2009-03-06T23:15:00.015-05:00

A 2010 H2H Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: C.R.A.S.S

H2H leagues, in theory, allow you to try unusual draft strategies. In practice, I find myself reluctant to be too crazy in a money league. My heart says yes, but my head says no. Perhaps both your heart and head like to take risks. If so, you might want to give this strategy a try.

We already went over a pitching heavy strategy that I dubbed PHAC. This time around let's run a stolen base, batting average, and closer strategy up the flagpole and see how it flies. The goal is to win Saves, ERA, WHIP, SB, and AVG each week. To make the strategy more effective, it also helps to target guys who score a lot of runs. But first, a disclaimer.

Disclaimer: Before we delve into this deeper, I need to stress how crazy you'd have to be to try extreme strategies like this at home. You are essentially putting all your eggs in one strategy basket, going for broke, and so if you get a bit unlucky, it is unlikely you will be able to win a majority of the categories on a weekly basis. Even if your strategy works, an unbalanced team can have unlucky weeks and lose 8-2 or 9-1, whereas a more balanced team might suffer the occasional 4-5 and 3-6 loss on unlucky weeks but would rarely suffer a more lopsided loss. To pull this stunt, it also helps if you are in a daily league, as you can better tweak your lineup to protect your ratios (batting average, ERA, and WHIP) throughout the week.

Now. Let's say you have the 8th pick. You're in a regular 5x5, 12-team, H2H roto-style (not points) league, and the pitching slots are SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P. The weekly innings minimum is 12. The hitters are using the default Yahoo! settings (no corner or middle infielders).

Your goal is to target speed, but only if that speed is accompanied with a high batting average. You also want to get as many topline closers as possible. And at the end of the draft, you need two solid relievers with SP/RP eligibility (note: click here for notes on every single RP/SP eligible pitcher in Y! for 2009). You will not draft a single SP. The team you assemble should win you five of the ten categories each week, including ERA, which is the tiebreaker category in Y! leagues. In order to hedge your risk a bit more, I'd target high-average steals guys who also score a lot of runs.

Remember, your draft won't always look pretty, but with a little luck, it should get the job done. Your draft might look something like this:

1.Pick #8 Matt Holliday (.321 AVG, 28 SB, 107 R)
2.Pick #17 Dustin Pedroia (.326 AVG, 20 SB, 118 R) 653 at bats!!
3.Pick #32 Jonathan Pabelbon (ADP = 41)
4.Pick #41 Ichiro (.310 AVG, 43 SB, 103 R) 686 at bats!!
5.Pick #56 Jacoby Ellsbury (.280 AVG, 50 SB, 98 R)
6.Pick #65 Bobby Abreu (.296 AVG, 22 SB, 100 R)
7.Pick #80 Joakim Soria (ADP = 90)
8.Pick #89 Derrek Lee (.291, 8 SB, 93 R)
9.Pick #104 Michael Young (.284 AVG, 10 SB, 102 R)
10.Pick #113 Carlos Marmol (ADP = 111)
11.Pick #128 Kerry Wood (ADP = 123)
12.Pick #137 Matt Capps (ADP = 150)
13.Pick #152 Andre Ethier (.305 AVG, 6 SB, 90 R)
14.Pick #161 Chad Qualls (ADP = 175)
15.Pick #176 Conor Jackson (.300 AVG, 10 SB, 87 R)
16.Pick #185 Joey Devine (ADP = 191)
17.Pick #200 Pablo Sandoval (.345 AVG, 0 SB, 24 R)
18.Pick #209 Hong-Chih Kuo (SP/RP eligibility)
19.Pick #224 Delmon Young (.290 AVG, 14 SB, 80 R)
20.Pick #233 Kaz Matsui (.293 AVG, 20 SB, 58 R)
21.Pick #248 Ryan Theriot (.307 AVG, 22 SB. 85 R)
22.Pick #257 Carlos Villanueva (SP/RP eligibility)

(Note: the players in the above team should be understood as placeholders of sorts, merely to give you a better idea of what this draft strategy might look like if it were to be carried out in the present fantasy baseball market. During your draft, you can always target other pitchers or hitters that you feel are more likely to be available in your league or more likely to perform at a high level during the 2009 season.)

Other hitters you might target:

Nick Markakis (.306 AVG, 10 SB, 106 R)
Juan Pierre (.283 AVG, 40 SB, 44 R)
Brian Roberts (.293, 36 SB, 107 R)
Shane Victorino (.293 AVG, 36 SB, 102 R)
Matt Kemp (.290 AVG, 35 SB, 93 R)
Alex Rios (.291 AVG, 32 SB, 91 R)
Johnny Damon (.303 AVG, 29 SB, 95 R)
Randy Winn (.306 AVG, 25 SB, 84 R)
Fred Lewis (.282 AVG, 21 SB, 81 R)
Coco Crisp (.283 AVG, 20 SB, 55 R)
Denard Span (.294 AVG, 18 SB, 70 R)
Mark DeRosa (.285 AVG, 6 SB, 103 R)
Chipper Jones (.364 AVG, 4 SB, 82 R)
Iwamura (.274 AVG, 8 SB, 91 R)
Skip Schumaker (.302, 8 SB, 87 R)
Placido Polanco (.307 AVG, 7 SB, 90 R)
Jose Lopez (.297 AVG, 6 SB, 80 R)
Shin-Soo Choo (.309 AVG, 4 SB, 68 R)
Ryan Ludwick (.299 AVG, 4 SB, 104 R)
Kevin Youkilis (.312 AVG, 3 SB, 91 R)
Joe Mauer (.328 AVG, 1 SB, 98 R)
Milton Bradley (.321 AVG, 5 SB, 78 R)
Mike Aviles (.291 AVG, 8 SB, 68 R)
Kelly Johnson (.287 AVG, 11 SB, 86 R)
David DeJesus (.307 AVG, 11 SB, 70 R)
Howie Kendrick (.306 AVG, 11 SB, 43 R)
Shin-Soo Choo (.309 AVG, 4 SB, 68 R)

This strategy can work even better if you are in a holds league (Kuo and Villanueva will be getting Holds from the SP slot). It works less well when using Quality Starts instead of Wins (if you are using Wins, your relievers might get lucky and take the category a few times). You also keep in mind that targeting high-average players who get a ton of at bats (Ichiro and Pedroia, for example) is a great way to solidify your batting average.

So at the end of this draft you have high-average hitters who score a lot of runs, and most of them can swipe a base. You'd have six closers, and two relief pitchers who also qualify for the SP slot. Your "wall" of relievers should produce a low WHIP and ERA each week. Being in a daily league will allow you to rotate players into your lineup, and so your team should accumulate 30 - 40 innings each week. One drawback of this strategy is that ratios can be a little unpredictable in small sample sizes, so you might get unlucky in any given week. Remember Derek Jeter went 0-32 to start the 2004 season? He ended up hitting .292 that year, but his hitless streak would have really hurt your team for a few weeks.

Anyway. It's a fun strategy, one I've always wanted to use but I've never had the guts to do it. Maybe you do.

If it helps, here is the cheatsheet I used in my actual draft.

Outfield Primer: Either Ethier Rules Or I'm A Cantaloupe

2009-03-05T09:19:00.027-05:00

Most players that get passed over in a draft are passed over for a reason. There are millions of reasons to ignore a guy.

Here are a few, off the top of my head: guys that have body parts held together with tissue paper and wood glue (Milton Bradley); guys with depth chart issues (Nick Swisher); guys who hit .209 on the year a few seasons ago (Pat Burrell); guys that might have had a .306 batting average last year but are 38 years old (Brian Giles); guys that have a ton of talent but are really young (Justin Upton); guys that strike out a lot, and so they don't work for your points league (Mark Reynolds); or even guys that have talent but have never had the full time job for a full season before (Shin-Soo Choo).

For this post, I want to concentrate on a guy who is getting ignored for no discernible reason:

Here, let's do one of those Player A, Player B, Player C things. Here are the 2008 stats of three players who played like top 90 players in the 2008 Y! game (otherwise known as a 7th rounder in 12-team mixed league drafts):

Player A: 525 at bats, 90 R, 20 HR, 77 RBI, 6 SB, .305 AVG
Player B: 526 at bats, 69 R, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 7 SB, .297 AVG
Player C: 611 at bats, 86 R, 21 HR, 99 RBI, 1 SB, .286 AVG

Player A is being drafted in the 14th round in 2009
Player B is being drafted in the 10th round in 2009
Player C is being drafted in the 6th round in 2009

Player A is Andre Ethier
Player B is Joey Votto
Player C is Garrett Atkins

My point here is not to beat up on Atkins. I kinda like him. And anyway, he's been getting enough of the overrated talk from other people who like to write about fantasy sports. And my point isn't to say that Votto is being drafted too high. I like Votto and think that he's actually being drafted too low. My point is to show how little respect Andre Either is getting in drafts.

Is there any reason to think Andre Ethier won't at least duplicate what he did last year? (Bill James thinks he will: 532 at bats, 89 R, 19 HR, 79 RBI, 5 SB, .303 AVG.) I understand why Ethier didn't get any love going into last season. For starters, the Pierre/Kemp/Jones/Either logjam in the Dodger outfield was a turnoff. In addition, I think Either was even more overlooked because of all the Matt Kemp hype.

Perhaps his solid season in 2008 is being overlooked because of all the Manny Ramirez hoopla. I don't know. But there is a lot to like going into this season: he will probably get more at bats, and he will probably bat third, one spot in front of Manny Ramirez; he has no health concerns; he's been hitting home runs in spring training, for whatever that's worth; and he's not too young, not too old (26 years old).

Look. Even depth chart nemesis Juan Pierre, who recently was given permission from the Dodgers to explore trade options, concedes that Ethier can play.

Plus, to beat his 2009 ADP, Either just needs to hit somewhere in this range: 79 R, 19 HR, 64 RBI, 4 SB .280 AVG (JD Drew's stats from last year).

While you're thinking this over, you can peruse the following list of outfielders ranked 101 - 252:

Dissenting Opinion:

Razzball writes that Ethier is not good for power or speed, and then calls him "Andre Neithier." Then again, he did draft Ethier to be part of his "best 2009 fantasy baseball draft."

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

Could Roy Halladay Give You A 1,083% Return On Your Draft Investment?

2009-03-04T10:58:00.023-05:00

Let's set the ground rules: These rankings were generated using the normal five pitching categories, save one big exception: I used Quality Starts instead of Wins. The idea behind this genius move was to eliminate some of the quasi-randomness of the Win category so that you can better focus on quality of pitching.

Oh, and one more note: these ranks work for H2H or regular Roto-style play only (and not points). I'm currently in the middle of a H2H points-style Sandbox draft right now, and the player values in that league are completely different (mostly because of the +1 point for walks and -1 point for strikeouts; it also appears that high-end starting pitching is more valuable than hitting, as points are given for outs and complete games). Example: Matt Kemp, who is probably a top 40 player in the Y! roto-style games, finished out of the top 200 in the Sandbox-style points game last year (he strikes out a lot and doesn't walk much).

Okay, I'll shoot a few bullet points at you first, and then show you the ranking list second so that you can see what I'm talking about. Why in reverse? Because that way you'll think I'm smart, and then after you see the list you'll think to yourself, "oh, he just used the list to make his points. He's not smart at all." But for those precious seven seconds after you've read the bullet points but before you've read the list, you will think that I'm smart.

Comments on the top 150 SPs in the Y! game in 2008:

Lots of good deals to be had among the top 150 starting pitchers.

For example, if Halladay repeats his 2008 stats, he'll provide more return on your draft investment than any other player in the majors. Is that a green halo over his head? (Pictured above.)

If you believe Nolasco can come close to duplicating his stats from 2008, you should jump on him because he'll give you great value relative to his draft position.

Other guys people don't seem to trust (and, in some cases, with reason): Harden, Ervin Santana, Duchescherer, Dempster, Lowe, and Saunders.

Wainwright and Lester are going a little ahead of their 2008 value, so unless you think they will get a bit better in 2009, you probably don't want to draft them.

Kuo sneaks in with his dual RP/SP eligibility.

Baker and Danks are flying a little under the radar.

Surprisingly, Shields has been getting respect. People are drafting him as if he'll duplicate his 2008 stats.

Comments on the SPs ranked 151-252 in the Y! game in 2008:

Greinke had good months and bad months. More people seem to believe in the good months.

Slowey had only one start in April.

Lots of volatility here, as evidenced by all the undrafteds. I'd guess that half the guys on the 151-252 list aren't on it next year.

No pitchers that are being drafted on the list below are a particularly good deal...

...except maybe Morrow and Joba, who should move up the rankings when they pitch more innings, get more quality starts, and increase their K totals.

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

Picking on RPs, a Primer: Who The Heck Is Steven Shell?

2009-03-03T11:58:00.012-05:00

-Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves. Don't pay for saves.

-Uh, what are you doing?

-I'm repeating the phrase "don't pay for saves" over and over again so that it becomes even more cliched and, a result, even more of a statement of truth.

-Oh. But you will pay something for saves, right?

-Probably.

-So why not use a more accurate phrase, like "don't use high draft picks on closers." Or, "if you are going to draft saves, spend wisely." Or maybe, "it is usually possible to get a solid closer in the later rounds, so try to limit the amount of closers you take in the first ten rounds." Or something.

-Don't try to trick me with your semantics! Those phrases are not as catchy and, as a result, are probably less of a statement of truth.

[End scene]

Okay. So don't break your bank on closers (unless your league settings make lots-o-closers a worthwhile strategy). I get it. As someone who has had Todd Jones repeatedly and single-handedly kill my team's chances of winning weekly H2H games, I don't quite believe in the concept, but at the very least I understand the idea. Maybe these people who hate closers are simply just picking the wrong closers. Tangentially, I must say I dislike having to rely on being super-quick on the waiver wire to round out my stable of closers. I'm one of the fastest guys in my league when it comes to waiver wire pickups. Certainly top three. But I swear, sometimes it feels like closers only get hurt during the two minute window each day I'm away from my computer. I don't know what the right answer is, but I tend to get a closer in the 9th-11th rounds, and then one or two more in the 15th-21st rounds.

Anyway. Let's start by looking at the relievers that finished in the top 150 of the Y! game in 2008:

(Note: to avoid having the semi-randomness of the Win category skew the RP rankings, I opted to use Quality Starts instead of Wins. The other four categories are standard: SV, K, ERA, WHIP.)

So it would appear that the repetition of the phrase "don't pay for saves" that you hear throughout the fantasy baseball universe is really working: average mock drafters are rarely paying for saves. Soria, who performed like a third rounder last year, is being drafted midway through the seventh round. His saves might be worth paying for. But Soria plays for the Royals. Who cares who Soria plays for? He played for the Royals last year and ended up being the 36th best player in the Y! game.

Who else? Maybe Kerry Wood, who would give you sixth round value on your tenth round pick if he were to repeat his '08 stats. But Kerry Wood loves to hang out on the DL. True. But if you think he can stay healthy, he should give you a nice return on your investment.

Then you have the "rising closer" class: Marmol, Qualls, and Devine only had 17 saves combined, and yet all three were ranked in the top 25 in 2008 even without high save totals. And so now that they probably will be getting more save opportunities in 2009, you have to feel good about their chances of outperforming their 2009 ADP.

A few setup men might also be a nice return on investment. If Balfour, Kuo, Arredondo, Howell, or Thornton can repeat their 2008 numbers in 2009, they will be cheap to draft and will certainly help your fantasy team. Remember that these rankings use Wins instead of Quality Starts, so if you are in a league with Wins, the value of these setup men increases even more.

The other other thing I'll say about the top 150 RPs is that seeing this list makes me want to avoid Bobby Jenks and B.J. Ryan, and I'm not all that keen on K-Rod, Papelbon, or Capps, either.

Here are the rest of the RPs in the top 252:

This list has two more rising closers in Francisco and Bell. Please also note that Brian Wilson, poster boy for the "closers only help you in one category" believers, is currently being drafted 50 picks ahead of his 2008 value. (By the way, FB Junk works to dispell the closer-as-one-cat. myth in this post.) Unless you believe that Wilson will improve on his 2008 numbers in 2009, he might be someone to avoid.

And one last thing: Who the shell is Steven Shell? Answer: "Shell, a former Angels prospect, has been quite a find since signing a minor league deal with Washington. He had a 1.96 ERA in 41 1/3 innings out of the pen in 2008, and the stuff is there for him to be a quality setup man going forward." However, he doesn't get much love from The Prognosticators: 4.98 ERA, 1.45 WHIP.

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

Kelly Shoppach has a bad case of position scarcity.

2009-03-02T20:40:00.012-05:00

Position scarcity. When talking about catchers, the phrase position scarcity frequently gets tossed about. Sounds like some sort of medical condition, doesn't it?

Person #1: You look a lot better. How are you feeling?

Person #2: Thanks. I feel better. The medication I'm on has really helped to contain my position scarcity.

Person #1: Is your position scarcity itchy?

Person #2: Oh my god yes. Especially in the armpits of my knees.

At this point, you are probably wondering, what the heck was that? And, can a knee have an armpit? And, if knees did have armpits, wouldn't they be called kneepits? Almost every catcher is a pretty bad deal. But you have to draft one. So the idea here is to limit the damage as much as possible. If each catcher were to repeat his 2008 stats in 2009, the catcher who would be the least damaging to fantasy teams is Kelly Shoppach:

So let's pretend that we are confident that Shoppach can at least match his numbers from last season if he gets the playing time. The logical next question is, how much will that Shoppach dude play this year?

The answer? To be determined. Victor Martinez looks like he's back and healthy (he hit two home runs in a recent spring training game), and you have to believe the Indians will give Travis Hafner every chance to claim the DH role. So that leaves Shoppach fighting with Ryan Garko for playing time. The Indians' manager claims Shoppach will play "a little more than he did last year," and if that is the case Shoppach would be a great guy to have as your fantasy catcher. Last year, Shoppach had 62 at bats in the first two months of the season combined, and then 69, 66, 93, and 60 at bats in the following four months. The Prognosticators project Shoppach to average about 60 at bats per month this year (360 total) and hit between 17 and 19 home runs for the season.

Conclusion: Hard to say what sort of playing time Shoppach will get but there is a decent chance he's worth his current 19th round draft pick.

Other reading on the syllabus:

"A healthy Martinez at first base improves the team on both offense (fewer AB's for Garko, more for Shoppach) and defense (Shoppach is above average behind the dish)."

"Shoppach turned in the best season of his career in 2008 because Victor Martinez was injured. Martinez is healthy again, and there is much anticipation as to how Wedge is going split playing time between the two. Martinez, of course, plays first base as well. The two guys who seem least worried about the situation are Shoppach and Martinez."

"Indians manager Eric Wedge has made it clear that Shoppach will catch '08 Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and Martinez will handle No. 2 starter Fausto Carmona...'It's fair to say that Shop's going to get more playing time, but we also know that Victor's going to be playing every day somewhere,' Wedge said. 'Victor's still our catcher, but we feel like we've got another one in Kelly Shoppach, too. Part of it's going to be the other guys we have on the ballclub, Ryan Garko, how much Hafner DHs.' Wedge said the Tribe brass has told Martinez and Shoppach 'we're not sure how this is going to play out.'

"But if the Indians decide they are a better team with Shoppach behind the plate and Martinez at first, Martinez is all for it."

Asked Wednesday how he'll divvy up playing time between Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Kelly Shoppach and Ryan Garko, manager Eric Wedge said that "Victor and Hafner are going to play every day and Shoppach will play a little more than he did last year."

Razzball has Shoppach in the second tier of his catcher rankings.

March 25th Update: Shoppach is batting .263/.310/.605 in 38 at-bats this spring.

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

Will Jhonny Peralta Remember to Drink His Standard-Issue Year-27 Magic Potion?

2009-03-01T11:37:00.008-05:00

If all of the top ten shortstops from 2008 were to put up the same exact stats in 2009, Jhonny Peralta would be the only one of the ten to outplay his 2009 Average Draft Position (ADP). (Although, as I discussed earlier, one could argue that Alexei Ramirez will “tie” his ADP.)

Little Jhonny had a good year in 2008. But it wasn’t an out-and-out where-the-heck-did-that-come-from year. He stats were mostly in line with his ’05-’08 four-year average. See for yourself:

Jhonny Peralta’s four-year (2005 – 2008) average:
89 R, 20 HR, 77 RBI, 2 SB, .274 AVG.

Jhonny Peralta’s 2008 campaign:
104 R, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 3 SB, .276 AVG.

The slight (or, more accurately, minorly sizeable) uptick in R and RBI can be attributed to the fact that the injuredness / poor play of Pronk and V-Mart meant that Peralta was frequently batting in the cleanup spot. I don’t know where he’ll hit in the 2009 order, but in his first spring training game he hit third. It should also be mentioned that if you decide it is okay to throw out the stats from Peralta’s stinker 2006 season, Peralta’s 2008 season looks even more legit. Just for kicks, let’s look at Peralta’s average stats from 2005 – 2008, throwing out his 2006 season:
91 R, 23 HR, 80 RBI, 2 SB, .279 AVG.

As the list below shows, Peralta is currently being drafted about 40 picks below his 2008 value:

So what sort of stats does he need to get in 2009 in order to be worth his 2009 ADP?

Well, J.J. Hardy was the 126th ranked player in the Y! game last year with these stats:
78 R, 24 HR, 74 RBI, 2 SB, .283 AVG.

Conclusion: As long as Peralta plays somewhat close to his average stats from the last four years, he’ll be better than his 2009 ADP. And that’s saying something because as you can see from all the red in the above list, there are very few shortstops who are capable of outplaying their ADP. More optimistically, if Peralta remembers to drink his standard-issue year-27 magic potion and plays at the top of his ability, he will easily be the best deal among fantasy shortstops. Putting it another way, you can safely draft Peralta as if he were the ninth best SS (and it is unlikely that he isn't at least a top ten SS in 2009), and in doing so you have the chance to make yourself a sweet profit on your initial ADP investment if Peralta happens to once again be the third best SS.

Oh, and as I’ve already mentioned here and here, I’m a sucker for multiple position eligibility, and it looks like Peralta might have some this season, as it is possible he plays some 3B in 2009.

Other Peralta Readables:

A Quick Hit on Peralta over at Rotoprofessor.

Peralta's run totals disproportionately influences his value.

Indians Insider: Jhonny Peralta says he steered clear of controversial trainer Presinal

Bill James' 2009 projection for Peralta: 97 R, 23 HR, 84 RBI, 3 SB, .274

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

A Third Base Primer That Strangely Focuses On, Wait For It, Mark DeRosa

2009-02-28T13:09:00.010-05:00

Mark DeRosa turned 34 years old two days ago. Happy belated birthday, Mark. For your birthday I am going to give you something that no one else has given you recently: a post all of your own.

Let's get to it: DeRosa was the 9th best third baseman last year. He also qualifies as a 2B in all leagues and he was 5th best at that position in 2008. If you draft him, you want him in your 2B slot.

I know, I know. The fact that I’m talking about DeRosa in what is ostensibly a post about 3B is a little confusing, but I already talked about Alexei in my 2B post (even though I probably should have discussed him as a SS). But remember, this post isn't about doing things in a logical way so as to avoid confusion. This post is about being a birthday present to Mark DeRosa.

DeRosa has really had two separate careers. In his first career, which ran from 1998 to 2005, he was a teen pop idol. No. Wrong wikipedia page. Ah, yes. Here we go: in his first career, he never had more than 309 at bats. When a guy is unable to find a starting gig in the majors for seven years, it usually is a sign that you don’t want him on your fantasy team. But in DeRosa’s second career, which is heading into its fourth season, he has had 520, 502, and 505 at bats and was a 70-80 R, 10-13 HR, 70-80 RBI, 2-4 SB, .290 type guy.

The most popular thing to say about DeRosa right now is that he had a “career year” in 2008. Is this true? The answer, it seems to me, is yes and no. DeRosa had more hits and a better batting average in 2006 and 2007 than in 2008. But when people say “career year” what I think they really mean to say is that in 2008, DeRosa more than doubled the amount of home runs he hit in his previous year. DeRosa had 13 HR in 2006, 10 HR in 2007, and 21 HR in 2008. Incidentally, the second most popular thing to say about DeRosa is that “his power numbers should decline in 2009.” And they might, as DeRosa led the league with nine "lucky" home runs in 2008. So I would argue that DeRosa's entire statistical 2008 season wasn't "career," it was just that his home runs were league-leadingly "lucky."

So that’s the background. Let’s get to the numbers:

As you can see from the list above, DeRosa was the 67th best player in the Y! game last year and is being drafted, on average, 134th this year. So my question is, what sorts of stats does DeRosa need this year in order to be better than his ADP?

Well, the 134th best player in the Y! game in 2008 was Kelly Johnson. Here are his stats:
86 R, 12 HR, 69 RBI, 11 SB, .287 AVG.

Can DeRosa top those numbers? To help answer this question, I will show you DeRosa’s 2008 stats, an average of the stats DeRosa generated over the last three years, and Bill James’ 2009 projection for DeRosa:

DeRosa in 2008:
103 R, 21 HR, 87 RBI, 6 SB, .285 AVG.

Average of DeRosa’s 2006-2008 stats:
81 R, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 3 SB, .291 AVG.

Bill James’ 2009 DeRosa projection:
87 R, 17 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB, .273 AVG.

Conclusion: Some people will read this post and think that DeRosa is STILL going too high in drafts. Others will read it and think that nabbing DeRosa as the 134th pick overall is a great idea, because you are essentially making a low-risk bet that he hits somewhere around his three-year average. And if he happens to hit better than that? Gravy.

Personally, I probably wouldn’t target DeRosa, but knowing the above information will make me feel comfortable picking him up if he slips much more than his 134 ADP (which is in the 11th round of 12-team mixed-league drafts...in my last few 12-team mock drafts, he has gone in the 11th, 12th, 7th, and 13th rounds). I’m only a moderate fan of DeRosa, but I’m a complete sucker for position flexibility, and DeRosa has a lot of that. DeRosa’s 3B/OF flexibility gives daily leaguers the ability to get a few extra counting stats on days when regulars at those positions aren’t playing (assuming your league doesn’t have 162-game position limits). Plus, having a DeRosa makes it easier to figure out a way to get starters in all positions without dropping valuable guys onto the waiver wire when folks on your team start getting injured.

There is very little Mark DeRosa reading out there. The stuff below is the best I could find. If you find something you think is interesting, feel free to post it in the comment section.

As Razzball says, maybe now that he is in Cleveland people will "no longer overrate a player that was underrated."

DeRosa quick to become team leader.

Lou, DeRosa deny recent report of rift.

A Fake Teams piece on Mark DeRosa from back in early October.

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Which First Basemen Will Exceed Expectations?

2009-02-27T11:02:00.014-05:00

What if every single player in baseball were to put up the same exact stats in 2009 as he did in 2008? If that were to happen, which first baseman would outplay his 2009 Average Draft Position (ADP) in Y! mock drafts by the widest margin?

And no, this is not the plot of a new movie starring Bill Murray. The intent here is merely to see if jumping through some mental hoops helps us get a better sense of which first basemen might outperform their 2009 Average Draft Position. If you don’t happen to know the answer offhand, or if you don’t know the name of the player pictured on the right, use this list to find the answer:

That’s right. Carlos Delgado. You know, the guy who hit 38 home runs last year and has hit more than thirty home runs in eleven of the last twelve seasons.

Delgado will be turning 37 this season, so while he might be hard pressed to continue to hit more home runs than this age, he is being drafted so far below his 2008 value that even if he were to regress a bit in 2009, it is not unimaginable that he might still outplay his 2009 ADP.

Let’s put some numbers to this hypothesis. If, in 2009, Delgado were to duplicate his worst season since 1995, would he still outplay his 2009 ADP of 135?

Delgado’s worst season since 1995 was his 2007 season with the Mets:
71 R, 24 HR, 87 RBI, 4 SB, .258 AVG.

The 135th-best hitter in the Y! game in 2008 was Jason Giambi:
68 R, 32 HR, 96 RBI, 2 SB, .247

The answer? It’s close. So assuming Delgado can stay healthy in 2009 (which might be a big assumption), he can outperform his 2009 ADP as long as he plays slightly better than how he played in his worst season of the last thirteen years. And yes, I'm as surprised as you are that this post turned into an episode of Pimp My Delgado.

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

Is Alexei Ramirez worth his ADP if he duplicates his 2008 stats?

2009-02-26T16:34:00.017-05:00

There are countless ways to determine the value of a player in fantasy baseball, but a common and relatively unscientific method is to glance at a players’ stats and then rely on gut in deciding if that player is going to improve, regress, or simply maintain his current rate of production.

For example, it seems many owners think Alexei Ramirez—who hit .290 with 65 R, 21 HR, 77 RBI, and 13 SB in only 480 at bats in 2008—will improve in 2009, which explains why he is currently being drafted in the fourth round of Yahoo (Y!) mock drafts. While participating in a recent mock draft, I witnessed an owner bragging about getting Alexei with the 54th overall pick. “Getting Alexei here with this pick is amazing value. He’s gonna mash this year,” the proud owner wrote. “At worst, he’ll duplicate his stats from last year, which would easily make him a top 50 pick.”

Which got me thinking. If Alexei were to duplicate his stats from last year, would he be a top fifty pick? Turns out, the answer is no. Alexei was the 114th-best player in the Y! last year, which puts his value somewhere in the middle of the ninth round.

Part of the reason his value was suppressed in the end-of-year 2008 Y! rankings was his 480-at-bat total limited his potential in the counting stats (R, RBI, HR, SB). So what if we were to extrapolate his stats for a 580-at-bat season? How would this change his value?

Your wish is my command:

Alexei Ramirez’s 2008 stats extrapolated out for 580-at-bat season:
79 R, 25 HR, 93 RBI, 16 SB, and a .290 AVG.

The player closest to having these same stats in 2008 was Vlad Guerrero:
85 R, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 5 SB, and a .303 AVG.

Vlad was the 56th-best player in the game in 2008. If Alexei were to duplicate a extrapolated version of his 2008 stats in 2009, he would be almost exactly worth his 50th-overall draft value. No more, no less.

This list should help give you a better sense of which second basemen might outperform their 2009 Average Draft Position (ADP):

(Note: my explanation of this list is a little convoluted, but hopefully it makes sense.)

Other required Alexei Ramirez reading:

Bill James projects Alexei to hit .289 with 88 R, 24 HR, 97 RBI, and 14 SB.

Turns out FB Junk also played around with this same data: Who is Really Under/Over Valued?

Razzball likes Alexei better than that likeable wood gnome, Dustin Pedroia.

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: HR/SB Dual Threats

2009-02-24T13:29:00.019-05:00

One draft strategy is to target hitters who are adept at both hitting home runs and stealing bases. Some managers take this strategy to such an extreme that they won’t draft players who can’t steal at least ten bases and hit at least ten home runs. This probably explains why Russell Martin’s Average Draft Position (ADP) is currently somewhere in the 42 range.

In an effort to help owners that prefer this strategy, I have generated a quick cheat sheet that lists all the dual HR/SB threats. The players on this list met the following three requirements:

10+ stolen bases in 2008

10+ home runs in 2008

30+ combined HR/SB in 2008

I call it the Ten-Ten Thirty Plus (TT30+) Club. Nobody else calls it this, so don't go bragging to your friends about how nearly all the players you just drafted are members of the TT30+ club. They won't know what you are talking about. But even though it is a make believe club, this list might help you to target some of the more underrated power/speed players for your 2009 fantasy baseball draft.

Note: the number to the left of each player name is the combined total of each player’s 2008 home run and stolen base output.

Any names surprise you? I’ll leave you with a list of players that just missed being included in the above list. Some of these players will probably be joining the TT30+ club in 2009.

What player from the "just missed" list do you think is most likely to go Ten-Ten Thirty Plus in 2009?

If it helps, here is the cheatsheet I used in my actual draft.

H2H Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: The Pitching Heavy and the Average Challenged (PHAC)

2009-02-22T16:07:00.016-05:00

A 2010 H2H Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: C.R.A.S.S

If you had the 8th pick in a Yahoo 12-team daily H2H roto (not points) fantasy baseball draft, would you consider drafting a starting pitcher with your first pick? Perhaps? How about this: would you consider drafting a starting pitcher with your first four picks? I call this the Pitching-Heavy-AVG-Challenged (PHAC) strategy. So the question is, will PHAC frick up your team?

Nearly every reliable fantasy baseball source will tell you that this strategy will lead to disaster. ("Santana is a beast, but pitchers simply shouldn't be taken this early.") FB Junk, for example, makes a great case for pursuing hitters that have high home run totals and hit for high average. The PHAC strategy requires you to pick home run hitters that do not hit for high average, which is certainly cause for pause.

Still, I thought it might be interesting to do a quasi thought experiment and see if taking starting pitchers in the early rounds can work. To make this thought experiment more concrete, we'll pretend that the categories for this hypothetical league are a typical 5x5, with the exception of Quality Starts being substituted in for Wins. The pitcher categories are SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, and P, and the inning limit each week is 19 innings.

(Note: Razzball does make a case for snagging some pitchers in rounds 3 through 8, although FB Junk suggests that zigging while everyone else is zagging might not work as well as you might think. Also note that Fake Teams accidentally followed a version of the PHAC strategy in this draft.)

If you were to attempt the PHAC strategy madness, the challenge would be to see if you could assemble a decent group of hitters in the later rounds. One way to try to accomplish this would be to target players who project to have high home run totals but are available later in the draft because of low batting average concerns:

1.Pick #8 Johan Santana (ADP = 17)
2.Pick #17 Tim Lincecum (ADP = 25)
3.Pick #32 Cole Hamels (ADP = 41)
4.Pick #41 Roy Halladay (ADP = 46)
5.Pick #56 Adam Dunn (40 HR in 2008)
6.Pick #65 Dan Uggla (32)
7.Pick #80 Ryan Ludwick (37)
8.Pick #89 Carlos Pena (31)
9.Pick #104 Hardy (24)
10.Pick #113 Closer or Delgado (38)
11.Pick #128 Closer
12.Pick #137 Napoli (20)
13.Pick #152 Burrell (33) or SP
14.Pick #161 Ankiel (25) or Cantu (29)
15.Pick #176 Weeks (14) or SP
16.Pick #185 Chris B. Young (22)
17.Pick #200 Thome (34)
18.Pick #209 Swisher (24) or SP
19.Pick #224 Beltre (25)
20.Pick #233 Giambi (32) or SP
21.Pick #248 Closer or Cust (33)
22.Pick #257 Reynolds (28) or Mike Jacobs (32)

(Note: the players in the above team should be understood as placeholders of sorts, merely to give you a better idea of what this draft strategy might look like if it were to be carried out in the present fantasy baseball market. During your draft, you can always target other pitchers or home run hitters that you feel are more likely to be available in your league or more likely to perform at a high level during the 2009 season.)

In a roto league, it would be difficult (read: impossible) to win without at least a few steals and a decent batting average. Still, you might be able to pull this off in a H2H league, as you could reasonably hope to win HR and RBI, as well as three of the five pitching categories each week. It is also worth mentioning that this might be a decent strategy for owners who don’t have a lot of time to do research. All you need to do is take the top four pitchers off the board, and then target the highest home run threats in each round, regardless of batting average. I know that owners usually don't want low-average, home run hitters in H2H leagues because these players tend to be extremely streaky, but perhaps having an entire team filled with these low-average types will make it so that at least a few of your low-average players are on a hot streak during any given weekly H2H matchup.

Conclusion: while PHAC would be fun to do in a draft with friends (they will all think you are crazy), the strategy is ultimately fraught with risk as you are essentially giving two categories away each week (stolen bases and batting average), which is even risky to do in a H2H league as it makes it harder to make in-season adjustments if your initial strategy bombs. If your starting pitchers get injured or regress, for example, you will be hard pressed to assemble a team that can win a majority of the categories each week. To hedge your risk somewhat, you could consider using only three of your first four-to-six picks on starting pitchers, but this will probably result in a pitching staff with less depth.

Anyway. The strategy might work, especially if this is the year Johan Santana wins 30 games.

Interested in a SB, AVG, CL draft strategy (SAC)? Click here.

Want even more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

If it helps, here is the cheatsheet I used in my actual draft.

Sinkhole Vertical Leaps: 2009 Slam Dunk Contest

2009-02-14T14:26:00.015-05:00

How high can the 2009 Slam Dunk contestants—J.R. Smith, Nate Robinson, Rudy Fernandez, and Dwight Howard—jump?

Truth is, it’s hard to say because it is difficult to believe any vertical jump / vertical leap data that's out there. But let’s pretend that all the vert data we find on the net is true. Here are the standing vertical leaps of the 2009 Sprite Slam Dunk contestants:

Rudy Fernandez’s vertical leap: 120 cm

What does 120 centimeters mean to you inch-lovers? Well, it converts to 47 inches. Do I believe it? Not really. (That picture feature in the link above isn't helping his case.) I mean, his draft profile said that he needed to “work on his vertical leap.” So unless he really worked on it, I’m guessing it isn’t 47 inches (note: other pre-draft sites said he had a "nice" vertical, so clearly the information is conflicting). But maybe he surprises us during the contest and and makes some "so so awesome dunks." Sort of like how he surprised Dwight Howard on this play.

J.R. Smith's vertical leap: 44 inches

He’s a very good in-game dunker, and he supposedly had a 44 inch vertical coming out of high school.

Nate Robinson’s vertical leap: 43.5 inches

This is, of course, according to wikipedia. Incidentally, he also set the Washington state record in the 110 hurdles, keeping up his trend of playing sports that most short people avoid. Nate Robinson's official height (and I believe these numbers) is only 5 feet, 7.75 inches, and his standing reach is only 7 feet, 7.5 inches. So he has to jump almost three feet just to dunk the ball in a non-fancy way.

Dwight Howard’s vertical leap: 38 - 40 inches (and a standing reach of 9'3 1/2)

Fast forward to the 2:39 mark of this video to see Baby Dwight touching 80% of the way up the backboard.

Click here for more vertical leap information, as well video of some of the dunks Dwight Howard didn't get to use in the Slam Dunk Contest last year.

A-Rod, Steroids, and The Eddy Curry Lineage

2009-02-13T09:00:00.023-05:00

In the 2007 – 2008 NBA season, Eddy Curry epitomized my biggest fan dilemma, as he was my least favorite NBA big man and he was playing for my least favorite coach alongside my least favorite point guard on my most favorite NBA team. On any given play, I found myself rooting for Eddy Curry to miss a shot and then rooting for David Lee to hit Marbury with a stray elbow as he put back the resulting offensive board for a score. This added complication ruined the experience of watching the Knicks play, so much so that I briefly considered pretending I liked the Charlotte Bobcats. Things got so bad that I even tried to postulate that Walter “Dub R Dub N” Herrmann was the most exciting player in the NBA.

As many of you probably know, a few years ago the “Eddy Curry Line” was established by Matt Buser, a former Y! fantasy sports writer who currently runs busersports.com, as a measure of futility. The standard: a player must average more turnovers than assists, steals, and blocks combined. In order to qualify, a player must have appeared in at least half of his team's games and averaged at least 20 minutes of playing time.

As a direct result of being forced to watch the ’07 – ’08 Knicks play, I transmuted Buser's idea of the Eddy Curry Line so that it became a way for me to determine my amount of dislike for a given player. Among friends, I called it The Eddy Curry Lineage—I don't know why, it just felt natural, maybe because The Lineage was a descendant of The Line. Anyway, when a player is under The Eddy Curry Lineage, I root against them even if they are on my favorite team. If Barry Bonds ever becomes a Yankee, for example, I would root against him. Barry Bonds is below The Eddy Curry Lineage.

I understand that the timing of this post isn’t perfect, given the recent events that Curry has gone through in his personal life, but my intent is not to slander Curry. I’m not sure that rooting against Curry was ever productive, but it certainly isn’t productive now, as so much has changed with the Knicks in the last year: Thomas is gone, Marbury is gone-ish, and Curry is injured, out of shape, and probably heartbroken.

But I was reminded of The Eddy Curry Lineage when the A-Rod / steroids story broke. Given my status as a Yankee fan, I've tried to keep A-Rod above The Eddy Curry Lineage. And I have, barely. I cheer for him, defend him, and generally tolerate him. To my mind, there is no denying that he is an incredible baseball player and saying otherwise is folly. At the same time, my feelings for him have alternated between ambivalence and mild dislike. Perhaps what has saved him for me is that I find his complete inability to control how he is perceived to be uniquely interesting.

To help me deal with A-Rod being on my favorite team, I developed a theory about it. Essentially, I decided that A-Rod had “chancha,” which I defined as a strange sort of melancholy in which an incredibly successful person who has everything feels sad because he is terrified that at some point his amazing luck will run out and things will start to suck. I suggested that A-Rod had an inability to enjoy the good times of his life because he was constantly obsessing about where or when the guillotine of ills would drop. This affliction is a subtle emptiness and brings with it a self-centeredness mixed with insecurity that makes the afflicted pretty annoying to be around.

(I have no idea if any of this is true. These are just some of the mental hoops I jump through and rationalizations I make in order make rooting for the Yankees possible.)

So while the recent steroids news about A-Rod has certainly injected an element of uncertainty into my already fragile A-Rod fandom, the silver lining of it all is that perhaps A-Rod will finally be able to shake his self-absorbed chancha affliction—he no longer has to fear the worst because baseball-wise, steroids are pretty much as bad as it gets—and become someone to root for unreservedly.

Thinking of switching from Wins to Quality Starts?

2009-02-11T13:44:00.019-05:00

Here are the three main reasons I can see to make the change:

1. When Dice-K plays the Yanks, it is possible for him to get a QS for your fantasy team but also a loss to the Yanks. Or Sabathia can get a Quality Start but a loss to the Sox. My point is that it makes being both a fantasy baseball player and a fan of baseball a little easier. This point might be less obvious to those of you who hate the Sox and the Yanks. But you get the idea.

2. Todd Jones can no longer blow your wins. Actually, this is only partly true. He can still let inherited runners score. Actually, that's not true either: Todd Jones is retired. But you get the idea.

3. While handing out Quality Starts (AKA six innings pitched with three or fewer runs given up) isn't a perfect way to reward a pitcher, it certainly seems better at rewarding good pitching than Wins. One is green beans cooked in butter and the other is green beans cooked in margarine. Or is margarine worse than butter? I can never remember. But you get the idea.

3b. As RotoTommy notes in the comment section, switching to QS eliminates the RP win vultures because you need to actually start the game to get a QS. So don't forget to adjust your setup men, middle relief, LOOGY, and closer rankings accordingly. Can there be a 3b without a 3a? No, not really, but you get the idea.

Assuming you do make the change, which starting pitchers should get bumped up your draft board? I thought you'd never ask. Here is a list of the starting pitchers from 2008 who had the biggest positive W/QS differential (minimum ten QS):

Here are the starting pitchers that were least helped by the switch from W to QS (minimum ten QS):

I'll leave you with a list of the 2008 starting pitchers who had the best QS% (minimum ten QS):

Trying to convince your league to make the switch? Email them the link to this post. And then also email them this picture of Todd Jones blowing a save. Hopefully they'll get the idea.

Go Get Greinke

2009-02-09T23:59:00.006-05:00

Likely overlooked because of the Royal(s) blue uniform he dons, as well as his general underachievement leading into the 2008 season, 25 year old RHP Zack Greinke is about as good a bet as any to be a 2009 fantasy breakout pitcher.

The Royals' 2002 first-round pick, Greinke was The Sporting News' 2003 minor league player of the year after winning 15 games and posting a 1.94 ERA.

In 2006, he was diagnosed with social anxiety disorder. He was placed on the 60-day disabled list, which gave him the opportunity to get away from baseball entirely, and presumably helped him manage his condition.

In 2007, he returned to Kansas City, but because of his erratic performances, he alternated between the bullpen and the rotation.

The Royals gave him another opportunity to start last year, and he finally did something with it. In April, he was 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA and 1 CG in 5 starts.

He returned to his bad habits the next three months, posting a 5-7 record with a 4.93 ERA. He bottomed out in July when batters hit .301 against him.

But perhaps this bad stretch was simply the final hurdle for a pitcher with the weapons to be an ace.

He went 5-3 the rest of the way, 4-1 in September, with a 2.32 ERA and 58K's to 14 walks.

Overall, he was 13-10 with a 3.47 ERA, 183 strikeouts to only 56 base on balls, and a 1.28 WHIP. He also was one of the league leaders in QS (23).

Greinke is one of the rare pitchers who has the command to locate his pitches, and the heat -- a mid-nineties fastball -- to blow hitters away, evident by his 8.14 k/9, and 3.27 k/bb ratios, respectively.

At only 25, Greinke is only going to get better. Pitching in the AL, he may still take his occasional lumps, but the guess here is he'll have many more April's than he will July's.

If you can nab him anywhere after the ninth round, you may have found a gem fit for a king. (Sorry, I felt obliged.)

The Prognosticators:

What sort of draft pick is Hafner worth, if any?

2009-02-09T10:47:00.008-05:00

Let's start here: "Pronk has a lot to prove this season, and it could turn out to be a nice story for fans if he can return to something resembling the guy who used to get MVP votes. But like I said, 50/50 proposition at this point."

This means that drafting Hafner gives you a fifty percent chance at MVP-votes production. Not bad for a guy that I haven't seen get picked before the 19th round. If we somehow knew for certain that Hafner had a fifty percent chance of having great stats this year, he might even be worth a pick in the top ten rounds.

But this analysis doesn't feel quite right. It feels like reading a little too much into the use of the phrase "50/50." Perhaps it was meant more in the way of "I have no idea but it certainly is possible that Hafner plays well." If that be true, perhaps the phrase "50/50" in this context really means something closer to "10/90." And when he says "MVP votes" maybe he really just means "a respectable home run total of, say, more than 25 or so." Even so, I'd probably use a 19th round pick on a guy who had a ten percent chance of getting "MVP votes."

Here is what others are saying:

Hafner is not considered to be one of the top five fantasy players on his own team.

Rotoauthority thinks he's worth rolling the dice for late.

He didn't play any 1B last year so he's probably going to be a UTL clogger with his DH-only eligibility.

Hafner, who had shoulder surgery in October, plans to be ready to go by Opening Day and has tentative plans to begin hitting in late February.

Rotosavants doesn't think Hafner will hit 30+ homers again.

Pronk is dead to Fantasyhurler and he considers him borderline undraftable. Razzball agrees.

Rotoprofessor considers him a late-round power option, and projects .275 with 28 HR, 85 RBI and 85 R.

The most optimistic of The Prognosticators has Hafner hitting 25 home runs.

Hafner's coach says he'll play every day.

Baseball Notebook calls him a sleeper, sort of.

No structural damage was found in Hafner's shoulder during his October surgery...does this mean he doesn't really have any excuses for playing so poorly in 2008?

Conclusion: A classic either-you-believe-or-you-don't player. Could be a decent guy to get late and stash simply because he barely costs anything to draft. Let's see what he does this spring.

Mocking AntiBionics' Mock Draft

2009-02-07T16:31:00.018-05:00

Raise your hand if you like Yunel Escobar. My friend, fellow blogger, and Yahoo fantasy baseball co-manager AntiBionics certainly does. He did his first mock draft of the year the other night, and while his draft was not as disasterous as mine, I do want to take a second to explore his undying affection for Yunel "I Cast A Spell" Escobar.

My sister just married into a family with the surname Escobar, so I consider any Escobar to be part of my family. Which is simply one way of saying that I like Yunel. But probably not in the 9th round. So the theme of this post is going to be, "Ha Ha You Took Yunel Way Higher Than Needed." I know, I know, it is silly to take issue with a particular pick in a mock draft in the month of February. So yes, I am aware of this fact. This post is really just an excuse to write about Yunel a little bit. And to make fun of AntiBionics in a lighthearted way.

Yunel seems to be a 16th round to 20th round type guy this year. So even if you really did love him, you probably could have waited until the 14th round or so.

Razzball puts Yunel the "Filene's Basement" tier of shortstops and projects 13 homers and three steals. Then again, Razzball took him in the 13th round of this expert mock draft. So this doesn't really help me make my point. So I found this draft, where he went in the 21st round just to even things out.

Fake Teams has Yunel ranked as the ninth-best shortstop and thinks he could jump up in the 2009 rankings. Darn, this also isn't proving my point.

But who cares where he "should" be drafted. The real questions is, will Yunel be good this year, right? According to The Prognosticators, he's going to be a 10 HR, 5 SB guy in '09.

Yunel was the second-best fielding shortstop last season, so maybe we can join a league that takes that into account.

He has seven stolen bases and eight caught stealings in his 230 career games played. I think we can officially stop calling him a stolen base threat.

Remember this game winner? "He feels really good right now, and he's just trying to help the team win," said center fielder Gregor Blanco, who was translating for Escobar. "He thought it was just a fly ball and was trying to do his job [and move the runner]." Huh. Sounds a bit like an "Oops bop" to me.

Conclusion: Maybe Yunel isn't a terrible pick like I first thought, as there still seems to be some excitement about him floating around in cyberspace, but I can't help but think he is, at best, a ten homer, handful-of-steals shortstop who can hit for a decent average. And no one is really disagreeing with this. So why, exactly, is he exciting?

Alex Rodriguez and Steroids

2009-02-07T11:56:00.009-05:00

This story is only about 15 seconds old, but I'm dreading it no matter what direction it takes. Here is why: I'm a Yanks fan and have always found Alex to be a good ballplayer who is mildly annoying. And so it is going to be really annoying when every story about the Yanks for the next six months is going to have some sort of ARod Steriods angle to it. Think Brett Favre saga of last August only more negative.

One-stop Shopping For Kawakami-san and Uehara-san

2009-02-06T15:42:00.012-05:00

I have no idea if these two pitchers will be useful fantasy-wise in 2009 and I don't think anyone else does either. When I don't know what the heck I'm talking about, I try to read as many other confidently-written articles by other people who don't what the heck their talking about. I find that I've been reading a lot lately.

Here is a collection of the most interesting information I could find on these two players:

Kawakami-san:

Ranked 75th best starting pitcher by MLB.com

Has 3.78 K/BB over eleven seasons in Japan.

He has the best cutter in Japanese baseball.

ESPN says: "Kawakami played in a pitcher's park in Japan, and there's some concern he might be susceptible to home runs. Regardless, he's an upgrade for the Braves, who hope for innings."

Expect Kuroda, but in a less favorable division and park.

Worth a 19th round pick?

Merely an above average MLB player?

Uehara-san:

Ranked 124th starting pitcher by MLB.com

Keith Law of ESPN thinks Uehara is a bad fit for the Orioles.

Uehara has given up only 195 walks in 1,549 career innings in Japan. Which is absurdly good.

His scouting report

ESPN says he'll rely on low walks, ground balls and "veteran craftiness," whatever that means.

Some Uehara projections

Conclusions: Both are getting towards the end of their careers but both are interesting to me because they don't walk anyone.

Mocking My Mock Draft

2009-02-06T08:01:00.011-05:00

I had the 5th overall pick in a Mock Draft Central (Yahoo standard 5x5) draft. The experience was an unmitigated disaster. My internet cut out three times, but that wasn’t the problem. The real problem was that my three auto picks were probably my best picks of the draft.

Since this draft is not worth getting all nitty gritty on, so I'll simply highlight a few picks:

Round 16:

Manny Corpas – This was not an auto draft pick. I willingly picked Corpas here. I had Huston Street queued up, and then when he was taken the pick before me, I got upset. So, to “get back” at the owner who stole Street, I took Corpas. Except that Corpas probably would have gone undrafted if I hadn’t taken him. So really I just hurt myself. Do you know what I think about when I think about Manny Corpas? I think about being stuck in the frozen tundra and shooting a moose and then gutting it and crawling inside to stay warm. Manny Corpas. That's not intended to be a joke. That's really what I think.

Round 18:

Delmon Young – Let’s face it: we’ve already seen the best that Young has to offer. I think the Twins know this, too, as they’ve been trying to trade him this offseason. Nobody really thinks he’ll ever hit 30/30. Wait, you do? No you don’t. Look at it this way: in 344 career games, Young has hit 26 home runs and has 26 stolen bases. The only reason I took him was so that the other folks in the draft room would type in “nice value” when I picked him. Which is a dumb reason to pick anyone. Nice value. What does that even mean? A player is worth a pick or not worth a pick. I’m sick of this “nice value” talk. Although I think what grinds my gears most is when someone takes a player that completely sucks and then types the phrase “position scarcity” a few times to make it all better. Anyway, I probably should have taken Frank Francisco or Chad Qualls with this pick (both went undrafted). Or maybe John Smoltz (who also went undrafted). In the future, maybe I'll only draft guys who are considered injury risks. You know, Rich Harden, Smoltz, Randy Johnson, Chris Carpenter. And then, for good measure, I'll use my last pick on Ben Sheets. That'd be a really nice value pick.

In the twilight of your career, my love for you no longer Byrnes so brightly

2009-02-04T00:20:00.015-05:00

I fell in love with you, dearest Eric Byrnes, in the year 2003. In our first year of love, nay, enrapture, you hit .261 with 12 home runs and stole 10 bases in just 121 games, and we were happy. Remember? Sure, it took us forever and a day to get to the big leagues, but we said to ourselves, nobody knows how good we can be, or the sheer volume of pluck, spunk, grit, and intangibles that flow through our veins. We will astonish the world.

In 2004 our relationship grew, as you suddenly could hit for decent average (.283), and your games played (143), home runs (20), and stolen bases (17) all increased. You were so toolsy! But we were greedy lovers, weren't we? We wanted more. We needed more. We throbbed with neediness.

Just when it seemed like our relationship would be easy, things became rocky. We moved to Baltimore and you lost your focus. You hit .226 in 2005, but I never once doubted you, even when Baltimore did and released you. I was a loyal lover and you rewarded me in 2006 when you hit 26 home runs, stole 25 bases, and had a passable .267 average.

But then something changed. At night, before we fell asleep together, you talked of having a career year in 2007. I nodded, of course, but deep down I was certain that I had already seen the best that Eric Byrnes had to offer. Your less-than-stellar .313 OBP in 2006 worried me, and for the first time in our long relationship, I began to doubt you.

And so in 2007, when you smashed all expectations with your 50 stolen bases, your 21 home runs, and your .286 average in a career high 160 games, I felt somewhat distant and emotionally detached. You had done this without me, without my fandom pushing you on to greatness. You had done this while my heart had moved on to other potential 20/20 players. So when you came home each night, flush with your own achievement, the best I could do was pretend that I cared. But the truth was I was a little bitter. You had become a fantasy baseball superstar, while I was still the directionless smudge of a person who posted pathetic emotional rants on his teensy-weensy baseball blog each night.

We both used to be so similar: underdogs in love. But once you got that shiny new ADP in 2008, I began to openly mock you by avoiding you in mock drafts. A few months into the season, I literally cut you down to size: I sliced your hamstrings with a pen knife while you were sleeping and then watched you try to play baseball through the pain. Your 2008 stats were predictably terrible: a .209 batting average with six home runs and four stolen bases in just 52 games. Sometime after the season ended, we separated, citing irreconcilable differences.

But now, as the 2009 season approaches, I find myself once again thinking about all the good times we had together. Sometimes I dial your number, only to hang up after the first ring. I worry that I pine for you only because I am lonely and you are dirt cheap and easily had. But even if that is the reason, isn't that okay? We are only on this earth for a short period of time, so shouldn't we spend the rest of our time together, even if it hurts sometimes?

I read everything they say about you. They say you will be paid $11 million dollars to be a reserve, that you are about to turn 33 years old, and that you will be no better than the 76th best outfielder. Others say that you are the 46th best outfielder, but that you should be avoided. And yet, you are somehow getting drafted in the 15th round, which seems quite high for a reserve. Others are taking you in the 12th round, which seems—nay, is—even higher. Confusing me even more is Bill James, who says you will get 540 at bats and hit 18 home runs and steal 20 bases. I don't know what to believe, but I'm beginning to think that this Bill James character (see also: Davis projection) is perhaps the most optimistic person in the galaxy. Why can't I open myself up to the possibility of hope as freely and easily as Bill James?

I heard you say in early November that your hamstrings were fully healed and that you're feeling the best you've felt since "tweaking" them early last spring. "Nothing has ever come easy for me in my career," I heard you say to that reporter. "I've had to battle for everything I've gotten in this game." I was hoping you'd mention me, how I had made your difficult times easier, and that now that you didn't have me, you were scared. But you didn't utter my name.

All this is to say that I am surprised to find that the very mention of your name both hurts and confuses me. Maybe that means I still care about you. I know we will never have what we once had, but I'm willing to get back together with you...if you let me draft you in the 18th - 20th round range. But, if you decide to let someone take you in the 15th round, our relationship is officially kaput. And yes, that is an ultimatum, but I reserve the right to change my mind depending on how you look in spring training.

The Reality of the Cubs Fantasy Potential

2009-02-03T15:47:00.010-05:00

In 2008, the Chicago Cubs were swept away in another first round playoff series, this time to an inferior Los Angeles Dodgers team. Still, the 2008 Chicago Cubs won 97 games, led all of baseball in run differential, strikeouts, batting average against, fifth in WHIP, fifth in batting average, and second in on-base percentage. And yet, the team did not have one fantasy superstar. Sure, there were moments when the Lovable Lou Pinellas put up numbers worthy of starting status, but by and large the North Siders were a team of great depth and chemistry, built well for the regular season, unwell for the post-season. Nevertheless, the team has fantasy potential worth exploring.

Top Five 2009 fantasy contributors:

1. Alfonso Soriano: Outfielder Alfonso Soriano, still looking slick in his well-fitting uniform and slightly less slick taking his odd bounce-hop before catching or not catching routine fly balls, is no longer a certain fantasy stud. In fact, his dubious hamstrings, chameleonic nature at the plate – one moment patient and destructive, the next lost and feeble – and age has made him a fringe second-rounder.

Although Soriano was able to put up a line of 29 HR, 75 RBI, 76 R, 19 SB, and a .280 AVG, all in 109 games, the 33 year old has missed 80 games over the past two years, mostly a result of his bum hamstrings. He’s no longer a candidate for 30 steals, for even when he’s healthy, he has only mild interest in swiping a base. And if he eventually moves to the middle of the lineup – where he belongs – his stolen bases will drop even further.

Soriano can still carry a fantasy team for short periods of time. When he gets hot he can crush 10 homers, steal a half-dozen bases, and hit over .400 in a week. But he can just as easily fall into a slump that makes you consider relegating him to your bench.

The virtue and attraction of Soriano in his prime, aside from his 2B eligibility, was his 40-40 potential. You could live with his aggressive swinging because it more often than not yielded favorable results. And pitchers couldn't risk pitching around him because of his baserunning prowess. But that threat has mostly passed.

Soriano will likely put up similar numbers this year as in 2008, but the bottom line is that his inconsistency at the plate, diminished health, and reluctance to take many chances on the basepaths make him no better than a low second-rounder, high third-rounder.

2. Geovany Soto: Catcher Geovany Soto may not put up the numbers Derrek Lee or Aramis Ramirez ultimately produce, but his eligibility at a premium position makes his value much greater. The National League Rookie of the year hit .285 with 23 bombs, 86 RBI, 66 runs scored and 1 CS. Okay, so he’s no speed demon like Russell Martin. But the rest of his line is pretty darn good. And at 25, he’s likely to continue to improve.

Soto has 25-30 homerun power, is patient at the plate – backed by his 62 walks and .364 OBP – and is above-average defensively, which doesn’t directly factor into his fantasy stats, but does allow Pinella to keep him out there in the late-innings when defensive replacements often arrive.

Soto often batted at the bottom of the lineup, but with Lee’s homerun power disappearing, and overachieving Mark DeRosa now in Cleveland, Soto may stay somewhere in the middle, perhaps behind Ramirez or the fragile Milton Bradley, whose OBP can only help Soto’s RBI total.

There are other quality catchers out there, including the aforementioned Martin, pudgy Braves catcher Brian McCann, Twins heartthrob Joe Mauer, and the Indians Victor Martinez; Soto belongs in their class.

3. Aramis Ramirez: Although he’s set to turn 31 in June, third baseman Aramis Ramirez is still one of the premier players at his position. In his five full seasons with the Cubs, he has averaged 31 homeruns, 105 RBI, and a .301 batting average. That’s excellent work. In addition, he’s become more patient at the plate, with 74 walks to 94 strikeouts, and a .380 OBP. He won’t steal you bases, and he has a penchant to miss time with nagging injuries, but you certainly could do worse with Aramis as your hot corner representative.

There is concern, however, that the departure of Utility giant Mark DeRosa, who often gave Aramis the much-needed and precautionary days off, combined with the lack of a serviceable replacement, may force Pinella to play Ramirez more. This could result in a longer stint on the DL, even by Aramis’ standards.

Having Milton Bradley in the lineup, even if it’s only for 100 games or so, should allow Ramirez to get a better pitch selection, which, with his keen eye, will allow him to sit back and wait for that ball he can power over Waveland Avenue.

It’s a fair to expect numbers in line with his career Cubbie average, but fantasy owners should be cautioned that he’s an injury risk and selecting a competent backup in the later rounds would be prudent.

4. Carlos Marmol: For a two-week stretch just before the all-star game, reliever and potential closer Carlos Marmol decided to mimic Penal League pitcher Ricky Vaughn’s game. Perhaps Marmol was a fan of the movie, or curious about what it’s like to be Charlie Sheen, minus the cost of hookers and undeserved Emmy nominations. Either way, the break seemed to be the remedy to his two-week hiatus from this planet, unlike Vaughn, who needed an eye exam and thick black-framed glasses.

There are many pundits who rank Marmol outside of the top ten of 2009 closers. And there is merit to these rankings. First, he hasn’t even been named the closer. Pinella has announced that he will compete with newly acquired Kevin Gregg to replace the beloved, star-crossed closer Kerry Wood. Next, Marmol has never been a closer. In two years as a reliever, he has eight saves, seven of which came last year when Wood was out with a blister. He also has three blown saves. Lastly, in both seasons, he’s lost his command. Like all major leaguers at some point during the season, he’s slumped. And his slumps, like many players, have come and gone with no real warning. For a hitter, it’s par for the course. But for closers, who appear in such a relatively minimal number of games, a two-week slump can be devastating, especially for fantasy owners, who count on their closers being consistent.

However, when he’s on – which is most of the time – no reliever in baseball has better stuff. This includes Papelbon, Nathan, Soria, K-Rod, Lidge, and the all-time master, Mo Rivera. While these pitchers will blow hitters away, Marmol will embarrass them. Routinely, hitters flail at strike three and walk to their dugout shrugging their shoulders. The combination of his mid-nineties fastball and a slider in the high-eighties that has other-worldly movement gives hitters fits. His numbers are predictably impressive.

His ERA of 2.68 would have been considerably better without the month of June, when he posted a 7.36 ERA. Still, a sub-3 ERA for a relief pitcher with 87 IP is not bad. But his other stats are simply video game-esque. He had 114 strikeouts in those 87 innings to just 40 hits, and 41 walks. He surrendered 10 homeruns. His strikeout-to-hit ratio was one of the best in major league history.

Although Marmol does have competition in Gregg, and in many ways Marmol would be more valuable in his current role because he’d be able to pitch in either the seventh, eighth, or ninth, rather than just in save situations, Gregg’s general ineffectiveness as a closer and Marmol’s arsenal make him nearly a sure thing to inherit the role at the end of spring training. In addition, the reduction in innings the position brings would likely help Marmol, who’s mid-season swoon may have been a result of overwork.

Expectations should be tempered until it’s known that he can handle the pressure that comes with being a closer, but the likelihood is that he can, and he may put up the best numbers of any closer in baseball.

5. Derrek Lee: Derrek Lee will never return to his 2005 form, when he contended for the triple crown, and finished third in the MVP voting, an award he deserved to win. His 2006 wrist injury stripped him of much of his power, and perhaps as precaution, his swing has leveled off, which may not put as much stress on his wrists, but also reduces the elevation of his fly balls, which, in 2008, resulted in many bouncing off the ivy at Wrigley instead of into the basket. He still hit .291 with 90 RBI and 93 runs, but for a corner infielder hitting in the middle of a very strong offense, those numbers are merely adequate.

Lee is still a good hitter. He had a .361 OBP with 41 doubles, and seemed to be the only Cub hitter to show up in the playoffs. Not to be overlooked is his durability, which, other than the wrist injury, is unquestioned. You can count on Lee to be in the field for 150-155 games, and most of those games will be productive. He won’t have the hot streaks Soriano produces, but he also won’t have the slumps.

It’s possible he could hit .300 with 25 homeruns, but I’d take the under. At 33, his career is certainly winding down. But like the rest of the Cubs, hitting with support in front and behind is always beneficial to ones stats.

Last Thoughts:

Two Cubs players who would be in the top five based on talent alone, Rich Harden and Milton Bradley, are too injury prone to be counted on for a full fantasy season. Both are worthy of roster spots, and perhaps you’ll get lucky—as Harden owners were this past season—but being cynical of their future health is the right mentality. Plus, how long will it take Bradley to scale the ivy walls and slap around a fan with his mitt? The bleacher bums get cavalier with their monosyllabic adjectives in the late innings, and Bradley, perhaps mired in a slump, will receive too many of those words to ignore his instincts.

Other interesting Cubs-related reads:

Razzball has a Cubs fantasy preview. He is wrong about Soriano, but, oh, so right about Lee and sandwiches.

FB Junkie: Is Milton Bradly underrated?

Is Samardzija worth watching?

Who are the top RP/SP eligible players of 2009?

2009-02-03T13:35:00.019-05:00

There are two rare breeds of pitcher: The relief pitcher (RP) with starting pitcher (SP) eligibility, and the SP with RP eligibility. These players can provide a ton of pitcher flexibility in daily H2H matchups. They can be especially helpful in those leagues that use holds or saves, as having a holds-getting or save-getting RP that can slide into the SP slot gives you an advantage in those two categories.

Johan Santana had RP/SP eligibility when he broke into the league back in 2004. Two years ago, Brett Myers was a mostly reliable SP/RP guy. Hong-Chih Kuo and Taylor Buchholtz were two of the more solid duel-eligible pitchers last year. Little known Leo Nunez was getting holds and had good ratios early in the season before suffering an injury. Starting pitchers Justin Duchscherer and Chad Billingsley also rocked their dual eligibility in 2008. So the question is, who are the top RP/SP eligible players of 2009?

Note: The default eligibility setting varies depending on game provider. For example, Y! leagues need three starts to gain SP eligibility and five relief appearances to gain RP eligibility, while for CBS leagues, the default setting is for ten starts and fifteen relief appearances. I decided to cast a wider net and included any pitcher that had at least three starts and five relief appearances. I also included a few pitchers that seem likely to become dual eligible early in the 2009 season.

RPs with SP Eligibility

(Note: Click on image to see version that is readable by human eyes.)

Key:
08 SP / RP: number of starts / relief appearances in the 2008 season
08 HLD / SV: number of holds / saves in the 2008 season
WHIP: walk + hits / innings pitched
K/BB: strikeout to walk ratio
BB/9: walks per nine innings
K/9: strikeouts per nine innings
FB MPH: the speed of the pitcher’s fastball in miles per hour

1. Hong-Chih Kuo: The ultimate goal is to find a duel-eligible pitcher that has a low WHIP (below 1.30), high K/BB (above 2.00), low BB/9 (below 3.00), and high K/9 (above 7.00). The only duel-eligible relief pitcher that checks all those boxes is Kuo. He is the ideal RP/SP candidate, as he has great ratios, gets lots of strikeouts, will get holds, and is probably second in line to Jonathan Broxton for the closer’s role. His injury history is nervous-making, but it is undeniable that he is king of this small pool of potentially useable RP/SP eligible relief pitchers. He is most likely the only dual eligible relief pitcher worth drafting.

2. Carlos Villanueva: Villanueva should continue to pitch mostly relief with a few spot starts. I’ve always found him to be rather uninspiring, but others swear by him. You could do worse. And if you believe that this will be the year Trevor Hoffman implodes, Villanueva might be first in line for the closer job.

3. Boof Bonser: In 2008, Boof got into a bit of a groove once he was moved to the pen, as he had an 11/36 BB/K ratio in 36 innings after the All Star break. UPDATE (2/24/09): Boof is going under the knife and it is possible he will miss the entire 2009 season.

4. Dennis Sarfate: Sarfate played most of the 2008 season with injuries sustained in an April car-door-slamming accident. He throws some real heat, and so perhaps a healthy Sarfate will get his command issues under control and turn some heads in Spring Training. There is a super outside chance he might close. Triva: Sarfate can be typed entirely with the left hand.

5. Justin Masterson: The Red Sox have yet to decide if Masterson will be a starter or a reliever in 2009. My guess is that he will be in the bullpen, as the Red Sox already have seven or eight starting pitchers.

6. Ramon Ramirez: Ramirez (the one on the Reds) pitched well in limited action in 2008. While it is possible that he makes the 2009 starting rotation, my hunch is that he’ll be coming out of the pen. He is not sure thing, but he’s worth adding to your “players to watch” list.

7. Jeff Bennett: Bennett is a fairly boring middle reliever, but he could be worth a roster spot in leagues that have holds as a stat category.

Note: As I mentioned in a prior post, Chris Carpenter might be a closer in 2009.

SPs with RP Eligibility

The first four pitchers on this list (Chamberlain, Morrow, Scherzer, and Price) are head and shoulders above the rest of the players on this list. While it is too early to tell if all four of these guys will begin the season in the starting rotation, my guess is that all four of them pitch exclusively as starting pitchers in 2009.

It is difficult to estimate the value of the players ranked five through eleven, but you should be watching all of them closely in spring training. Many of them are borderline starters that could very well end up in the pen. For example, early indications are that Sean Marshall will be the fifth starter for the Cubs and that Chad Gaudin will start the year in the pen, but that could change if the Cubs trade for, say, Jake Peavy.

I’ll leave you with a list of all the remaining duel-eligible starting pitchers (click on image to have it open in a new window):

Want more draft strategy? Click here for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, C, SP, and RP position primers.

A RP/SP eligible update can be found by clicking here!

This Team Is In Trouble

2009-02-02T13:32:00.011-05:00

I wanted to see if it was possible to create a competitive fantasy baseball team if all the players I drafted had, at some point in their career, gotten into some sort of trouble. I used a recent expert mock draft on MDC as a way of gauging the round in which a player should be taken. So here it is, your All Trouble team (click on player name to see source):

Round / (Round, Pick) / Player / Pos. / Offense
1. (R2, P1) Josh Hamilton, OF: Crack addict
2. (R2, P9) Manny Ramirez, OF: Caught jaywalking
3. (R2, P11) Dustin Pedroia, 2B: Brother molests?
4. (R4, P1) Aramis Ramirez, 3B: Loves cockfighting
5. (R4, P7) Kevin Youkilis, 3B, 1B: Forgot to register charity
6. (R6, P8) Jonathan Papelbon, CL: Does some dirty dancing
7. (R10, P11) Joba Chamberlain, SP: DUI
8. (R10, P6) Pat Burrell, OF: Discussed sex life in Penthouse
9. (R11, P1) Brett Myers, SP: Arrested for assault
10. (R11, P5) Lastings Milledge, OF: L Millz rap song had "language"
11. (R13, P11) Carlos Zambrano, SP: Brawls in dugout
12. (R14, P7) Delmon Young, OF: Threw a bat at an umpire
13. (R19, P7) Miguel Tejada, SS: Steroid allegations
14. (R20, P1) A.J. Pierzynski, C: Takes On Chicago Sun-Times Writer
15. (R20, P8) Frank Francisco, CL: Threw chair at fan
16. (Undrafted) Dontrelle Willis, SP: DUI
17. (Undrafted) Scott Olsen, SP: DUI
18. (Undrafted) Esteban Loaiza, SP: Driving 120 mph, drunk
19. (Undrafted) Gustavo Chacin, SP: DUI

C - A.J. Pierzynski
1B - Kevin Youkilis
2B - Dustin Pedroia
SS - Miguel Tejada
3B - Aramis Ramirez
OF - Josh Hamilton
OF - Manny Ramirez
OF - Pat Burrell
OF - Lastings Milldge
OF - Delmon Young
SP - Joba Chamberlain
SP - Brett Myers
SP - Carlos Zambrano
SP - Scott Olsen
SP - Dontrelle Willis
SP - Gustavo Chacin
SP - Esteban Loaiza
RP - Jonathan Pabelbon
RP - Frank Francisco

As you can see, the word "trouble," for the purposes of this post, is loosely defined. Even with this broad definition, the answer to my initial question is no, this team is not competitive. However, all it would take for this team to suddenly be competitive would be for a few All Star starting pitchers to get mixed up in some sundry stuff between now and the start of the regular season.

It could happen.

What Stats Will Chris Davis Have To Get To Justify His ADP?

2009-01-30T07:38:00.013-05:00

Chris Davis' ADP is currently 71.13 (Yahoo-style) on Mock Draft Central. Couch Mangers has his ADP at 81.2 (and getting better each day). To take Davis with this pick you will need probably need to pass up your shot at Joe Nathan, K-Rod, Liriano, Josh Beckett, and Derrek Lee.

To give you a another reference point, the hitters that were taken with the 65th - 75th picks last year were Ian Kinsler (67), Miguel Tejada (71), Brad Hawpe (73), Rafael Furcal (75), Adrian Gonzalez (76), and Michael Young (79).

Davis has both 3B and 1B eligibility. According to Mock Draft Central's ADP, Davis is the 11th first baseman taken and the seventh third baseman taken. In 2008, the 10th-ranked first baseman was Carlos Delgado (96 runs | 38 HR | 115 RBI | 1 SB | .271). So for Davis to play first base for your team, he'd probably need to hit .285, get 100 runs and RBIs, and hit over 30-35 home runs.

But you wouldn't be drafting Davis to play first base, as he's more valuable as a fantasy third baseman. The seventh-ranked third baseman in 2008 was Chipper Jones (82 runs | 22 HR | 75 RBI | 4 SB | .364). The eighth-ranked third baseman was Aramis Ramirez (97 runs | 27 HR | 111 RBI | 2 SB | .289). So to play third base for your team, Davis will probably need to hit over .285, get 90 runs and RBIs, and hit 25-30 home runs.

Garrett Atkins is currently being drafted .01 picks ahead of Davis. (Note: Atkins finished the 2008 season as the 86th-best player in the Y! game.) So, arguably, as long as Davis can do what people think Atkins will do, Davis justifies his ADP. Well, in 2008, Atkins had a solid season (86 | 21 | 99 | 1 | .286) and Bill James doesn't think he'll do much better than that this year.

Then again, if we believe anything Bill James projects, then there is really no point to this column, because if Davis plays the way Bill James thinks he'll play (107 | 40 | 118 | 8 | .302), he'll easily outpace his ADP.

I started this post thinking that it will be unlikely for Davis to justify his current ADP, but if all he has to do is beat Atkins' or Aramis' stats from 2008, it very well could be possible. Last year, TK Sinkhole bought into the Matt Kemp and Evan Longoria hype and it mostly worked out, but we also bought into the Alex Gordon and Justin Upton hype, and that worked out less well. All things considered, I'm still feeling a little gunshy about going after a young guy like Davis, but I can certainly see how others wouldn't hesitate to spend their sixth-round pick on him.

One other thing: I wanted to post the stats of the player who finished the 2008 season ranked as the 71st-best player, but I was unable to find them. I'll probably just wait until Y! opens the doors to its 2009 game to add that information to this post. UPDATE: The 72nd-best player in the Y! game in 2008 was Dan Uggla (97 | 32 | 92 | .260 | 5).

Other Chris Davis articles of note:

Future looks bright for Rangers.

Chris Davis: Is he the next Josh Fields or Evan Longoria?

Razzball on Chris Davis

Ten Early Thoughts on Jeff Clement

2009-01-29T07:31:00.014-05:00

Note: This post is for catcher trolls.

He could get 500 at bats from the catcher position, as he will probably play DH most of the time and then sub in for Johjima once a week or so.

Bill James projects 520 at bats, 20 home runs, and a .256 batting average

Ranked as the 27th-best catcher here and 20th-best here

Hit .337 with 14 HRs, 35 walks, 30 Ks, and a 1.131 OPS in 173 Triple-A at bats last year

Clement is 25 years old and just had his second knee surgery. Don't expect a single stolen base from this guy

"The knee feels great. I have been working with a physical therapist and am making steady progress. I haven't had any setbacks and now it's a matter of getting back into catching shape." --Jeff Clement on 1/28/09

Clement prefers catching regularly because it helps his offense. He went 8-for-72 (.111) with no home runs and two RBIs last season as the DH, compared to 34-for-129 (.264) with five home runs and 21 RBIs when he started games at catcher.

No one is talking about this guy, so it's not like anyone would ever need to reach to get him (and in one-catcher leagues he'll go undrafted)

500-plus good at bats from the catcher position would be huge

Look, he probably won't hit better than .260, but should be watched closely because of his at-bat potential

Quick Pitch: Tommy Hanson

2009-01-28T19:41:00.014-05:00

9th ranked prospect by ESPN's Keith Law
92-95 fastball, dominating curve; also throws a slider, and changeup
Braves Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Led the AFL in wins (5), ERA (0.63) and strikeouts (49 in 28 2/3 IP), holding hitters to a .105 batting average.
22 years old
Projected to be an early season call-up
Looks like he could take his frustration out on water coolers and air conditioning units

March 3rd, 2009 Update: Not a bad start: Three innings, three Ks, zero runs.

Ten Early Thoughts on Nelson Cruz

2009-01-28T07:59:00.009-05:00

Nelson Cruz is 28 years old

He did not make the Opening Day roster in 2008

The Rangers have four outfielders who merit regular playing time: Josh Hamilton, Marlon Byrd, David Murphy and Nelson Cruz. Rotating them through the DH spot is a possibility.

Cruz hit 37 home runs in 383 Triple A at bats last year

Projections vary from 28 HRs, 18 steals and a .278 average (Bill James) to 10 HRs, four steals and a .257 average (Marcel)

Cruz is Rotoauthority's #1 sleeper

He attempted a steal 25% of the time he was on first base in the minors

His ADP is currently in the 15th-to-17th round range, but my guess is that he will become less of a bargain over the next few months

Crooked Pitch readers think Pablo Sandoval, Matt Wieters, and Ian Stewart will be better sleepers than Cruz and Razzball has his hesitations.

Cruz's font couldn't get any bigger in this tag cloud

Ten Early Thoughts on Pablo Sandoval

2009-01-27T10:48:00.009-05:00

This 22-year-old will have catcher eligibility in Yahoo leagues (11 games played at catcher last year)

He's ranked 13th overall catcher and seen as a bit of a sleeper by Razzball

Pablo's nickname is "Little Money"

Bill James projects Sandoval to hit 17 Hr, 103 RBi, and bat .320 in 540 at bats in 2009

Sandoval did not make an error in 85 innings at 3rd base last year

Sandoval is currently penciled in as the 3b for the SF Giants

It is possible the Giants pick up another 3b before the start of the season, and that would push Sandoval to first and move Travis Ishikawa back to the minors

He has a career minor league line of .303/.342/.445

It is a little strange to see someone who is 5'10", 260 pounds playing catcher and third base

Guess who tore up the Venezuela League this winter? This guy.

Ten Early Thoughts on Chris Carpenter

2009-01-26T16:06:00.009-05:00

He has missed most of the last two years with injuries

He is currently 33 years old

I have yet to see him drafted before the 20th round

Dude isn't listed as one of the top 82 starting pitchers by this site

He had a 1.07 WHIP in 221 innings in 2006

A recent report says he might become the Cardinals' closer in 2009

I'd say the chances of Carpenter ever becoming a closer are less than 19%

If he did become a closer, he'd have that nifty SP/RP eligibility

Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel do not think Carpenter will top 100 innings in '09

Carpenter did well on his recent "nerve conduction test" and "feels great"

Bonus bulletpoint: a Carpenter write-up in Baseball Notebook.

The Best Places To Go To Get Smart About Fantasy Baseball

2009-01-26T15:31:00.005-05:00

I've found these sites to be interesting and/or helpful:

Razzball

Fantasy Ball Junkie

Rotoauthority

Fangraphs

The Hardball Times

And of course, Rotoworld

What are some sites that you've been monitoring?

Note: Other interesting / helpful site have been added to the "stuff to read" sidebar on the right.

Staying In The Cafeteria With Rodney Stuckey

2008-12-18T12:27:00.007-05:00

Until recently, I considered Rodney Stuckey to be one of those annoying players who is relentlessly hyped by those who are in the business of relentless hype-making. You know the sort of player I mean: he performs well for a game, maybe two, but ultimately no amount of opportunity enables him to harness his potential. A 29 point, 11 assist game is immediately followed up by a forgettable three point, four foul effort. People get on and off his bandwagon like it is a trolley car. Think Tyrus Thomas, or Yi Jianlian.

I mostly ignored Stuckey.

Looking back, it is impressive that a certain NBA guru had Stuckey pegged so accurately earlier this past summer. In a way, it reminds me of the high school history teacher who knows that Sonya Marks in his AP History class will ultimately blossom into a beautiful woman. Meanwhile, all the high school boys naively pursue Alicia Cartova. Ten years later, Sonya Marks is in makeup commercials and Alica Cartova still lives in your hometown, looks tired all the time, and works behind the counter of a local hardware store that is slowly being run out of business by Home Depot.

My relationship to NBA players is all about teenager-maturity-level love. To give this pursuit of love some context, it should be noted that in my hometown, school dances were held in the cafeteria. Students who were bored with the dance were permitted to go down the hall to the basketball gym. So that's what my friends and I did. We didn't even play real games, either. Instead, we threw court-length baseball-style passes in our never ending attempt to reenact this moment.

So, when it recently (and finally) occurred to me that I was in love with Stuckey, that he was more Sonia than Alicia, I rushed to my fantasy basketball league's waiver wire and was elated to see that he was still available.

I promptly asked him to the homecoming dance.

Accidental Home Runs on the Rise

2008-03-28T14:28:00.005-05:00

Over the last 50 years, the amount of accidental home runs hit has been increasing at an alarming rate. In fact, if accidental home runs were to continue to increase at their current rate, there would be more accidental home runs than intentional home runs by the year 3,521.

Kenny Loften, who led the league last year with 7 accidental home runs, defended his penchant for the so-called "oops bop": "I never try to hit a home run," he said. "I just try to put a good swing on the ball."

While accidental home runs are down overall in spring training so far, a recently hit dramatic surprise slam has kept the topic in the news: Jacoby Ellsbury, after hitting a game-winning home run in the 10th inning of a spring training game, admitted his home run had been a complete shock: "Not what I intended to do at all," he said. "But hey, I'll take it."

Johan: El Cy Youngazo (The Great Cy Young)

2008-01-30T00:16:00.000-05:00

Johan Alexander Santana Araque might be the best American baseball player this world has ever known. His 91-95 mph fastball, his slurve, and his tailing changeup are all quad-plus (plus plus plus plus) pitches, and his ability to leg press 1050 lbs--while irrelevant to his pitching prowess--is also impressive. Almost as impressive as his ability to stay a strict vegan even though his wife makes her soups with a chicken-based broth (source: anon within Philly org).

In fact, Doug MacCafferty, the famed single-A scout, believes Santana is poised to shock the world and win at least thirty games this year. "If he can command his stuff, really just go out there and command it each start, I see no reason why he doesn't win thirty, thirty-one games this year."

In addition, I just got off the phone with my source within the Mets organization and he is soup-to-nuts thrilled. The Mets feel that once you control for stadium coefficient, line-up lag, catcher ineptitude, and New Yorkability, Santanta could double the number of wins he had last year (he had 15 wins last year).

I did some quick mathematical projections myself and found that as long as the Mets lineup scores their projected 1020 runs created (runs = (hits+BB) (TB) / At-bats + BB), and as long as he faces the Pirates seven times (assuming the current rotation holds steady), he could win as many as thirty-five games and as few as seven. The biggest variable is Measure Maturity, which for Santana should hold steady or even increase (see graph).

Bottom line: If he wins his fifteenth before the AS break, I'd say he has a decent shot at the elusive 30-win mark. The MLB record is held by Jack Chesbro, who went 41-12 for the New York Highlanders in 1904.

Frequency of Sinkhole Activity Steadily Mediocre

2007-11-14T11:57:00.000-05:00

We've been writing this blog for a year. The number of posts by month:

The percentage of posts by author:

The only question now is what direction The Kitchen Sinkhole should take in order to remain relevant. A few ideas:

A Lions & Titans Weekly Comparison Blog ("Light Blue Connection")
A Jason Hanson Tribute Blog ("Kicking Off & Taking Names")
A Rob Bironas Tribute Blog ("It's Long Enough, It's Straight Enough")
A Nonsense-Statistic Blog ("Mel & the Math Dog")

Come up with something better and leave it in the comments. Winner gets to write the first post.

Fives In Quintuplicate

2007-11-06T22:11:00.000-05:00

No one in the history of the NBA has ever had a quintuple double.*

I have recently become interested in the next best thing to a quintuple double: the 5-by-5 stat. Current players who are threats to get 5-by-5 include: Gerald Wallace, Ben Wallace, Josh Smith, Kevin Garnett, Andrei Kirilenko, Marcus Camby, and Shawn Marion. Tonight, for example, Josh Smith was one block short of his first-ever 5-by-5: 18 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 steals, and 4 blocks.

I postulate that the 5-by-5 stat has a high correlation with Ex-Factor.

Sinkhole Poll: Who do you think will be next NBA player to get a 5-by-5?

*This is not exactly true: steal and block statistics have only been kept since the 1973-74 season.

Who Is The Most Exciting Non-Sports Athlete Today?

2007-11-02T15:43:00.001-05:00

This is no toss-up!

It is the spider monkey.

Who Is The Most Exciting Sports Athlete Today?

2007-10-29T22:29:00.001-05:00

Well, it's a toss up between The Black President, Purple Jesus, and...Walter Herrmann.

You don't know who Walter Herrmann is now. But you will soon.

Note: After Sean May got hurt and Adam Morrison tore his ACL in a preseason game, I had to pick another distinctive-looking Bobcat to root for. I will continue rooting for Herrmann and the Bobcats until Isiah Thomas is fired and Eddy Curry and Stephon Marbury are traded.

Sinkhole Superstars: Jason "I'm the one who went to Duke" Williams

2007-10-29T21:43:00.001-05:00

The crown jewel of the 1999 SLAM All-American team was Jason "I'm the one who went to Duke" Williams. It appears that he is out of the NBA for good (read: retired). Here is an excerpt:

"Jason Williams: Jason Williams had it all. He was a was a model student/athlete and his success continued in college. He helped Duke to the 2001 National Championship. While kids across America were rationalizing staying in college seven years, “Jay” Williams finished at Duke in three and was taken second in the NBA draft in 2002. He had a decent rookie season and seemed to be building a solid career for himself. In the summer of 2203, Williams was in a motorcycle accident that, essentially ending his playing career. He attempted a comeback with the Nets in 2006, but was cut after making a few preseason appearances to the delight of the crowd in his native New Jersey. After a quick minute in the D-League, Williams has begun a new phase in his life in the sports marketing world."

Note: Another SLAM 1999 All American, Kenny Satterfield, is currently out of the league. He was one of the best NYC streetball players of all time. Since leaving Cincinnati early, he's bounced all around, mostly overseas. (Although, it could be worse: A former Satterfield teammate who currently works as a packer at a Keebler plant in Ohio was just arrested for having crack cocaine on the floorboard of his 1996 Mazda.)

Note: Someday soon Kevin Pittsnogle might become a Sinkhole Superstar. To prepare for this eventuality, I have begun to conduct research on him. Did you know that Pittsnogle, using one ball and one rebounder, once made 78 3 pointers in 5 minutes. That's a 3 pointer in every 3.8 seconds. That's Kobayashi-esque. After playing for the CBA's X-Plosion last year, I thought he might stick with an NBA this year. No such luck. He'll start the season with Cholet Basket.

Pittsnogle update: This NYTimes article is a good read.

Channing Crowder, Former UF Football Player

2007-10-24T23:06:00.000-05:00

Dolphins LB Channing Crowder, who appears likely to start in the middle Sunday against the Giants with Zach Thomas ailing, says he didn't know until Tuesday that people in London speak English. "I couldn’t find London on a map if they didn’t have the names of the countries," he said. "I swear to God. I don’t know what nothing is. I know Italy looks like a boot. I know (Washington Redskins LB) London Fletcher. We did a football camp together. So I know him. That’s the closest thing I know to London. He’s black, so I’m sure he’s not from London. I’m sure that’s a coincidental name."

Channing is absolutely correct. Fletcher was born in Cleveland.

Check out the source for this article. The comment section after the article is mildly entertaining and potentially informative.